Tracking Hurricane Irma

From the NHC:

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

sabamfa wrote:When will we have a better idea of FL impacts? Father in law lives in Fort Myers Beach....about 50 miles north of Marco Island.

Thursday

sroc4 wrote:From the NHC:

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

I find this graphic pretty fascinating. It shows all the tracks of Cat 5 hurricanes in history. Theme is almost all miss Cuba.

Frank_Wx wrote:

sabamfa wrote:When will we have a better idea of FL impacts? Father in law lives in Fort Myers Beach....about 50 miles north of Marco Island.

Thursday

Thank you, Frank!

[quote="Frank_Wx"]

sabamfa wrote:

sroc4 wrote:From the NHC:

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

Whats this supposed to mean Frank..lol

sroc4 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

sabamfa wrote:

sroc4 wrote:From the NHC:

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

Whats this supposed to mean Frank..lol

200NM on Day 5 - mine as well stick with a 4-day forecast. That's a big spread.

This is a pretty look:  =21&opacity[0]=1&hidden[0]=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=1&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider]http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=16887&y=7330&z=4&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=21&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=1&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

Look at the size of that eye wall.  I spent 2.5 yrs living on the Island of St. Kitts.  I still know people there.  Even though the center is foecasted to pass just to the north with that eyewall as big as it is they may still feel the full brunt. St Kitts is the little island that looks like a drum stick pointing SE to NW in the Northern Lesser Antilles. God speed to all the people and animals on those islands.

EPS:

Still an interesting spread on the Ensembles:

sroc4 wrote:Still an interesting spread on the Ensembles:

Madonne - maybe tomorrow we'll see some consistency?

sroc4 wrote:Lets see if in the next few frames Jose creates a Fujiwhara effect and pulls her back off the coast...SE ward

Wouldn't the stronger system which will be Irma "pull" on the weaker system (Jose) instead of what you posted which is the exact opposite. Plus I have to admit I'm rather bummed that we do not appear to be getting hit with this beast.

18z tropical models

Another look at the EPS

syosnow94 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Lets see if in the next few frames Jose creates a Fujiwhara effect and pulls her back off the coast...SE ward

Wouldn't the stronger system which will be Irma "pull" on the weaker system (Jose) instead of what you posted which is the exact opposite.  Plus I have to admit I'm rather bummed that we do not appear to be getting hit with this beast.

As Scott mentioned earlier, it depends how strong Jose gets. If he deepens into, lets say, a Cat 3 or 4 hurricane, then he will have enough power to lure Irma away from the coast and put her on a more easterly track. I personally don't think we'll see much of a Fujiwhara Effect from these two. I think there will be too much separation. But worth monitoring!

syosnow94 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Lets see if in the next few frames Jose creates a Fujiwhara effect and pulls her back off the coast...SE ward

Wouldn't the stronger system which will be Irma "pull" on the weaker system (Jose) instead of what you posted which is the exact opposite.  Plus I have to admit I'm rather bummed that we do not appear to be getting hit with this beast.

Not necessarily Jimmy.  Hurricane Joaquin in Oct 2015 was a perfect example of a weaker system (trough in Atlantic) pulling the strings on what appeared to be the more dominant feature , the ULL in the SE CONUS.  In that case the trough in the Atlantic did just enough to prevent the capture and sling shot to the coast.  See here for detailed maps and discussion about that:  https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t585-a-discussion-on-the-track-of-major-hurricane-joaquin-oct-2nd-2015

In this case IF the turn north occurs earlier and the track is the eastern half or just off the EC of Fla and Jose is stronger than modeled it will have a wider effect on its surrounding environment.  It may be just enough to create that Fujiwhara effect where two trop entities movement are influenced by each other such that they rotate around a focal point somehwre in the center between the two entities.  Here is the exact definition:  http://www.hko.gov.hk/education/edu01met/wxphe/ele_fujiwhara_e.htm That focal point could be closer to one vs the other depending on the strength of the two entities.

Here is an excerpt from the Joaquin write up that will help explain what I mean for those who don't want to read the whole thing:
Note: I'm not saying there will def be interaction between Irma and Jose, but like frank said its worth monitoring since the track of Irma is still somewhat up in the air and the track and intensity of Jose are as well. Well see

Pretend Joaquin is like a tennis ball sitting in the center of a mattress and the two areas of LP to the east and west are like two bowling balls that you place on the mattress on either side of the tennis ball. Both bowling balls will create an indentation in the mattress. Depending on how close the tennis ball is to either one will dicate if it rolls towards one vs the other. What models had a tough time seeing is that the LP to the NE over the Atlantic ocean had been tuging on Joaquin holding him back and forcing it further south than originally thought. As a result the center remained over VERY warm waters. As a consequence he rapidly intensified (which models didnt see) going from a tropical storm to a category 3 and now 4 hurricane in less than 36-48hrs. Again not a single model saw such intensification a few days ago.

syosnow94 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Lets see if in the next few frames Jose creates a Fujiwhara effect and pulls her back off the coast...SE ward

Wouldn't the stronger system which will be Irma "pull" on the weaker system (Jose) instead of what you posted which is the exact opposite.  Plus I have to admit I'm rather bummed that we do not appear to be getting hit with this beast.

we prolly won't get the beast when has St like that ever happened up here other than 1938 but until she's dissipated in the us or out of here I'm not taking the possibility off the table. This cat 5 can have a mind of their own. Maybe the block is gone or she plows right through it.

FWIW the NAM is showing what I think may happen.  By Thursday into Friday the Mean trough dug into the SE CONUS is either going to tug the track further N than Euro, CMC or it wont.  By Sat you can see the NAM has the furthest N soln for this time frame.  Extrapolated you can see the weakness and where the approx. track would take IRMA if the model went out further.  




To a slight lesser degree the GFS does the same thing, and is why you saw the 12z take a track along the EC of Fla.  Come Thursday into Friday the Euro has no interaction with the mean trough and actually takes Irma on a WSW track after the Thursday early Friday time frame towards Cuba before then feeling the weakness thanks to the energy I have circled and a track along the WC of Fla.  



So in summary if Irma feels the mean trough at all, and this should be seen by Thursday into Friday we will see the track start to shift north of the current forecast track.  If she does not feel the mean trough then she will likely take that western track into the western half of Fla or the eastern GOM like Ray (rb) has discussed.  At this time both scenarios have sound reasoning and probability at this time with may just a slight edge in model support leaning towards the more western soln.

Hey guys so here's my question and I am so sorry if I've been posting a lot besides sandy I haven't really expierence much. As far as Orlando I know we're in the center so we're kinda in the middle but so we evac? My god mother is in boca so I already know she's coming my way but here in Orlando none of us have a single clue on what we're doing LOL. Any ideas?

GFS slightly further north through hr 54

Noticeably further north at 66, weaker ridge, trough hanging around, could be an interesting run

Yeah this def aint over for final track, much further north than 12z.

Its interacting with the trough

A little interaction with the trough, weaker ridge, may start coming north after hr 84

Huge north turn at 102

destroys nassau, yikes, aweful close to FL. looks NW.

skinsfan1177 wrote:Huge north turn at 102

Yep, almost due north now at hr 108