Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

by **aiannone** Sat Sep 16, 2017 1:41 pm

12z GEFS still a bit west of operational

by **amugs** Sat Sep 16, 2017 1:54 pm

by **jmanley32** Sat Sep 16, 2017 2:05 pm

Nice try rb you got it party right but guess just gonna have a escape despite strong hp. Oh well. I don't have it in me for another. If you do God bless ya lol

by **sroc4** Sat Sep 16, 2017 2:33 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Nice try rb you got it party right but guess just gonna have a escape despite strong hp. Oh well. I don't have it in me for another. If you do God bless ya lol

Yes you u do. Don't lie. lol!

by **rb924119** Sat Sep 16, 2017 2:46 pm

We still have four days; I'm not sleeping on it yet lol UKMET ticked west, EURO came slightly west, the SREFs are still fugly and ugly for the area. Four days out from a snowstorm, I'm not trusting the models for another 75-mile jog. Remember, Irma wasn't picked up on until two days out, so......

And mom, I do sleep believe it or not, I just live a crazy schedule with work, and then with storms it gets crazier with *less* sleep lmaooooo

by **rb924119** Sat Sep 16, 2017 2:49 pm

I never said specifically a landfall for our local area, remember; I said from the northern Mid-Atlantic to just north of New England for a landfall. 75 miles west and/or north and it verifies, and with four days to go, I think I stand a fair chance. Either way, it's still too close for my comfort to write it off. If in another day or two nothing changes, I'll update my thoughts and admit my bust, but I'm not ready to do that yet lmao

by **rb924119** Sat Sep 16, 2017 2:54 pm

And also, all four members of the CFSV2 are now bringing it into the New York Bight, which is a westward shift of two of its members and status quo of the other two. I'm holding my course right now, if you didn't catch that already ahahaha

by **SoulSingMG** Sat Sep 16, 2017 2:59 pm

The Euro has Jose tangoing with Maria before hitting VA in ohhhh a month or so lol. Can't make this sh*t up.

by **jmanley32** Sat Sep 16, 2017 3:18 pm

rb924119 wrote:We still have four days; I'm not sleeping on it yet lol UKMET ticked west, EURO came slightly west, the SREFs are still fugly and ugly for the area. Four days out from a snowstorm, I'm not trusting the models for another 75-mile jog. Remember, Irma wasn't picked up on until two days out, so......

And mom, I do sleep believe it or not, I just live a crazy schedule with work, and then with storms it gets crazier with *less* sleep lmaooooo

Would like to agree with you but frank took down any chance of impacts other than some rain and I'm pretty much hear ots. That being said Levi has a new video out and he still circles the area to watch clisely. I also just had a really bad day so was kinda grmpy lol

by **jmanley32** Sat Sep 16, 2017 3:23 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:The Euro has Jose tangoing with Maria before hitting VA in ohhhh a month or so lol. Can't make this sh*t up.

10 days and that fujiwara would throw both systems at diff parts east coast. U can't make this up for sure.

by **jmanley32** Sat Sep 16, 2017 3:24 pm

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Nice try rb you got it party right but guess just gonna have a escape despite strong hp. Oh well. I don't have it in me for another. If you do God bless ya lol

Yes you u do. Don't lie.

Yeah yeah prolly but it's just frustrating. I'm also thinking bout winter and if all the storms tease us too. I'll b join oti I think if so.

by **aiannone** Sat Sep 16, 2017 3:38 pm

12z EPS

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 9 21741310

by **aiannone** Sat Sep 16, 2017 3:42 pm

Once again we are dealing with a thread and needle type event with a trough dipping down from Quebec as well as the ridge, therefore forecasts 100 hours out can't be taken exactly as shown. Look at Irma, who was steered by a complex set up and the models didn't get landfall location right until 48 hours out and ended up being over 140 miles west of D4 landfall projections. 170 miles in either direction with Jose will make a huge difference in regards to potential impacts. Yes, OTS seems more likely at this point, but can't be said it's certain yet IMO.

by **algae888** Sat Sep 16, 2017 3:52 pm

syosnow94 wrote:The tropics suck. Tease after tease. Waste of weeks checking in here. Should know better and just wait for November

Yes I agree especially where we live. But the tropics have been very active and fun to track this year. Just drives me nuts when people think it's going to hit our area because of a 200 plus hour GFS run. Even if a hurricane hits let's say islip LI directly as a cat one. anyone north and west of I-95 will have minimal impacts. Northwest side of the system probably weakening when it hits us a lot has to go right for us to have a devastating storm as some wish. Sandy is a once-in-a-lifetime event and need I remind everyone she hit in Atlantic City. even if Sandy wasn't part of the system that hit us we still would have had a disruptive storm. 6 more weeks before we can start looking at the overall pattern for winter storms we are getting there

by **aiannone** Sat Sep 16, 2017 4:35 pm

NWS Upton:
All attention is on Jose during this period. Operational and
ensemble model guidance is in general agreement on drifting Jose
northward through Tuesday morning, but then some critical
differences occur in speed, track, and intensity during the
eastward curving process near the region Tuesday Night/Wed
period. In fact...the 12z GFS and ECWMF are about 100 miles
displaced s/se of LI by Wed morning and 500 miles displaced by
hr Wed night. This model spread will likely continue for the
next couple of days, so please continue to monitor NHC
forecasts for official information about tropical cyclone Jose,
at WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV. It`s important to note that typical NHC
forecast track errors 3 to 4 days out generally range from
around 100 to 150 miles, respectively.

by **aiannone** Sat Sep 16, 2017 4:52 pm

NHC shifts cone way east at 5pm

by Guest Sat Sep 16, 2017 5:09 pm

Guaranteed 100% I'm golfing here Tuesday afternoon in central LI. Any takers. I'll gamble on it.

by **devsman** Sat Sep 16, 2017 5:21 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Guaranteed 100% I'm golfing here Tuesday afternoon in central LI. Any takers. I'll gamble on it.

Bethpage?

by **jmanley32** Sat Sep 16, 2017 8:19 pm

So rb, has this gone too far east to make a return all the way back west or is it pretty much a done deal? I know you said theres 4 days (more like 3) and it interests me that the sref which all you winter guys whoot and howl at myself included. The fact you say it shows a bad situation, is interesting cuz I wonder what the SR models will show now that we are getting within range. I am gonna go out with you on a parade or down with the ship k lol, though I start new job Monday and I will not be staying up past the SR probably. IF and when Maria poses any kind of threat WITHIN 5 days (no more of this 7+ day out crap) I may stay up for GFS/CMC but need to be on pt for these 42 women and children I will be working with at a NYC shelter as their licensed social worker.

by **skinsfan1177** Sat Sep 16, 2017 8:31 pm

Its not over

by **rb924119** Sat Sep 16, 2017 9:13 pm

Jman, it would seem the "consensus" places Jose right at or around the Benchmark, think about that for a second. The Benchmark. Not 300 miles further offshore than the Benchmark; the Benchmark. 50-75 miles west of current "consensus" brings strong tropical storm conditions right back to the I-95 corridor, and 50-75 mikes north of current "consensus" allows Jose to landfall on the Cape. In my humble opinion, in no way is this "too far gone" to say it doesn't have a chance to bring significant impacts back into our region. As far landfall in OUR region, I never felt the chances were all that high; my target zone, based on my "cone of uncertainty" laid out many days ago, my "sweet spot" for landfall has always been southeastern New England. To be within a 50-75 mile north shift from the range my "cone of uncertainty" was stated at clearly shows my ideas have merit, and is evidenced by the fact that we have been talking about this potential impact for several days as we have watched modeling continuously trend several hundred miles closer and closer to my ideas. This post is certainly not at all meant to sound condescending, nor pompass; instead, to illustrate why I'm hesitant (at best) to stray from the same thought that has gotten me this far in the journey of Jose. It isn't broken yet, so I'm not gonna try and fix it......yet. Like I said earlier, if in a day or two nothing has changed, then I'll jump ship and adjust. But as seen by the EURO Ensemble members, a model that had been consistently on the southeastern flank of guidance thus far, there are still a fair percentage that fall in line with me. At this range, I'm willing to trust what's gotten me here and take my chances. So, no, I absolutely do not think it's "too far gone"......YET.

by **jmanley32** Sat Sep 16, 2017 9:20 pm

rb924119 wrote:Jman, it would seem the "consensus" places Jose right at or around the Benchmark, think about that for a second. The Benchmark. Not 300 miles further offshore than the Benchmark; the Benchmark. 50-75 miles west of current "consensus" brings strong tropical storm conditions right back to the I-95 corridor, and 50-75 mikes north of current "consensus" allows Jose to landfall on the Cape. In my humble opinion, in no way is this "too far gone" to say it doesn't have a chance to bring significant impacts back into our region. As far landfall in OUR region, I never felt the chances were all that high; my target zone, based on my "cone of uncertainty" laid out many days ago, my "sweet spot" for landfall has always been southeastern New England. To be within a 50-75 mile north shift from the range my "cone of uncertainty" was stated at clearly shows my ideas have merit, and is evidenced by the fact that we have been talking about this potential impact for several days as we have watched modeling continuously trend several hundred miles closer and closer to my ideas. This post is certainly not at all meant to sound condescending, nor pompass; instead, to illustrate why I'm hesitant (at best) to stray from the same thought that has gotten me this far in the journey of Jose. It isn't broken yet, so I'm not gonna try and fix it......yet. Like I said earlier, if in a day or two nothing has changed, then I'll jump ship and adjust. But as seen by the EURO Ensemble members, a model that had been consistently on the southeastern flank of guidance thus far, there are still a fair percentage that fall in line with me. At this range, I'm willing to trust what's gotten me here and take my chances. So, no, I absolutely do not think it's "too far gone"......YET.

Thanks for the explanation, you came across stern lol, but in a educational way. I never said you were wrong, your def going to be right or very close. I know you never said a landfall in NJ or NY was going to happen. But your right as with any tropical system its really not over until it passes the area, and even then Euro has him loop back around as a weakened low, lol cant make this stuff up. If anything I guess I will continue to track these cuxz I like to watch all your guys forecasts and how they verify usually bettter than some that are on the media.

by **jmanley32** Sat Sep 16, 2017 10:42 pm

Granted its not in its good range yet but NAM shifted slightly west. NAM has Jose down to 965mb.

by **Sanchize06** Sat Sep 16, 2017 10:45 pm

NAM coming in a little west, nice band coming in too. Probably tropical storm force winds in that one

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 9 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_47

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 9 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_47

by **Sanchize06** Sat Sep 16, 2017 10:54 pm

Well the UKMET was still west at 12z lol

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 9 GZ_D5_PN_072_0000

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 9 GZ_D5_PN_096_0000

by **jmanley32** Sat Sep 16, 2017 10:59 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:NAM coming in a little west, nice band coming in too. Probably tropical storm force winds in that one

Actually for 06z Wed the NAM shifted significantly west, precip edge was in mass, now edge of outer reaches to NYC. And yes there is a prewtty heavy band of rain and if you look at 850mb winds there are some stronger winds in the vicinity of that band. Strong winds get into eastern LI and CT (of course my parents get it pretty good, haha you move away from home and the good storms start to happen.

Look at the shift.

18z NAM

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 9 Namcon10

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 9 Namcon10

00z

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 9 Namcon11

by **jmanley32** Sat Sep 16, 2017 11:05 pm

AND LI does get a period of strong TS force winds if they can mix down. CT gets hit pretty good too. Could be a fun morning commute Wed if this verified verbatim, we know it won't but anymore jog to the west and NYC and jersey shore are back in it, its ever so close as it is.
Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 9 Namcon12

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 9 Namcon12

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