Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

[jmanley32]

Huge changes aloft versus 00z, and we continue trending in the right direction.

Rb
We have the "full court press" starting to wear down the mdoels ENS and OP's today - for example teh GFS went from a cutter into  Detroit to one  up into the apps spine now.
By tomorrow 12 Z we should see another tick or two SE.
The wave break and anomalous ridge be built in the NPAC is going to be incredible one we will long for after the 1-10ish time frame IMO



See teh buckle in teh JET off the West coast ? Follow the purple color and how it goes North like a rollercoaster - it i getting deeper/stronger as we approach its time for it to be there.

WOW EURO HOLY SHT!!

To you and Frank, THIS is why I have been using the caps Ahahaha this pattern has me FIRED UP THROUGH THE NEW YEAR. And now we got a double "Maddone" from Scott and Frank!!!! YEAHHHHHHHHHHHHHH BUDDYYYYYYYY!!!!!!!

Nice system but need that well offshore to give the coast and even inland a shot at all snow. Could it happen of course, thats the trend.

[SnowForest]

Huge changes aloft versus 00z, and we continue trending in the right direction.

Rb
We have the "full court press" starting to wear down the mdoels ENS and OP's today - for example teh GFS went from a cutter into  Detroit to one  up into the apps spine now.
By tomorrow 12 Z we should see another tick or two SE.
The wave break and anomalous ridge be built in the NPAC is going to be incredible one we will long for after the 1-10ish time frame IMO



See teh buckle in teh JET off the West coast ? Follow the purple color and how it goes North like a rollercoaster - it i getting deeper/stronger as we approach its time for it to be there.

WOW EURO HOLY SHT!!

Would this mean multiple snow chances for coast, or rain to snow?

[Armando Salvadore]

Yeah that period leading up towards NYE is definitely intriguing. Our -EPO/Omega ridge breaks off nosing into Northern Greenland in a positively tilted axis. This does 1 of 2 things; Compresses the downstream flow meaning placing and elongating the TPV east of Hudson Bay/SE Canada and 2. Strengthens anticyclogenesis via ageostrophic convergence. Just pouring in this Arctic air into the lower states and pushing east. Shortwaves than cut underneath this omega ridge (which happens to cut off from mean flow), and follow along the BC zone within the mean flow. Now, it's not the ideal setup, but some of our major snow events have come from this type of configuration.

[track17]

I don't like that everyone is so quiet has me worried the new runs were not good. Or are things still trending well

[mikeypizano]

I don't like that everyone is so quiet has me worried the new runs were not good. Or are things still trending well

Me either, but your welcome to send me a text, number is in my signature

[MattyICE]

0z for the long range models haven’t run yet

[rb924119]

I'm at work, so I'll be up but won't be present too often for the runs. But you can bet I'll post as much as I can, if I can lmaoooo :/

[Guest]

I don't like that everyone is so quiet has me worried the new runs were not good. Or are things still trending well

Me either, but your welcome to send me a text, number is in my signature

Rookies. It took me awhile to learn this truth also. The forum is busy in the evenings about 10 pm once the models start running which is about every 6 hours. Or it’s busy all day 24 hours before the storm and during it

[jmanley32]

The GFS and CMC for the 29/30th threats were big, like godzilla big. Way to far off though.

[frank 638]

National weather service has me for Christmas Eve night rain to a winter mix to all snow by Christmas morning

[rb924119]

AND THIS IS WHY I CONTINUE TO BE EXCITED: THE LAST TIME I SAW THIS FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEAN OF THE EURO WAS IN ADVANCE OF LAST YEARS BLIZZARD. THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE SIMILAR AND IM AWESTRUCK:

[rb924119]

Btw, the EURO Ensembles also showed some some improvement for Christmas when looking at the individual members. While the mean is unchanged, it looks like we are beginning to see a divide between an "all or nothing" bi-modal distribution, where now approximately 1/3 of the individual members show accumulating snows into NYC for Christmas. The others mainly offshore and over New England with the snow, as they are later to develop the system. Still confident in this, and am watching to see how it evolves. Models are still unsure of what to do, as the changes at the upper levels are still considerable.

[skinsfan1177]

Gfs says white Xmas

[frank 638]

Bring it on I will even be happy with 1 to 3 inches of snow for a white Christmas

[nutleyblizzard]

6z GFS has a HECS for later next week. All models now on board for a major to historic snow event!

[sroc4]

We are def close for Christmas snow even for the coast.  Right now Im not talking about significant accumulations but a couple-few inches is not off the table yet for the coast..its close.  Models are starting to come into agreement with some of the energy but timing, strength, and how far south it digs are still off from model to model.  Euro and CMC are very similar.  Here is the euro.  We just need the N energy to dig just a tad further S.  Again models have tended to underestimate the strength of northern s/w, and there is some semblance of a 50/50 low showing up in the modeling to help slow things down.  If a 50/50 low were true it could allow the flow off the EC to buckle just enough to allow the N energy to dig a bit more and the trough tilts neg 6 hrs earlier on the euro verbatim.  It aint ova yet.

[skinsfan1177]

6z GFS has a HECS for later next week. All models now on board for a major to historic snow event!

I never like being in the bullseye so far out

[hyde345]

NWS Albany long term discussion below, keep in mind this is for their region which is Dutchess/Ulster counties northward.


A potent PV anomaly will round through the digging upper long wave
trough through Sunday into Sunday evening. This feature, along with
the eventual position of the Hudson Bay low, will dictate if/where
this coastal storm develops. The best baroclinicity will be near
the I95 corridor with surface pressures beginning to drop as
entrance region dynamics assist with low pressure wave developing
along this baroclinic zone. The ECMWF and GGEM suggest this wave
will develop just east of the mid-Atlantic coastline as
strengthening upper jet approaches 170kts. The ECMWF points toward
rapidly intensifying cyclone through Christmas Day with bomb-
cyclogenesis through the Gulf of Maine. Combination of deformation
and fgen, seems we could be in for a moderate to heavy snowfall.
However, can not completely rule out the GFS as it too remains
constant with its previous runs and ensemble mean. Stay tuned...

[jmanley32]

The snow map up to 240 out is insane especially for pa. Nearly 3 to 4 ft! NYC sees 20 to 30. Yipee we can dream! I'll cancel my trip to CT on the 29th if we can have a storm like that!

[docstox12]

NWS has me for snow starting late Christmas Eve, goes to a mix from 1 to 3 AM , then back to snow hopefully giving us up here in the LHV a White Christmas!!!!

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

6z GFS has a HECS for later next week. All models now on board for a major to historic snow event!

Historic may be a little strong.

NYC which is usually on the low end snowfall wise of our major storms has had 6 storms of 19 inches or more in just the last 14 years an average of one almost every 2 years. Our area has seen at least a dozen storms in that period where a significant portion of our area saw 20 plus inches, 30 plus in many spots. In that context historic would have to be something 30 plus area wide and I don't think we're looking at anything like that.

I'd love to be wrong though.

[jmanley32]

6z GFS has a HECS for later next week. All models now on board for a major to historic snow event!

Historic may be a little strong.

NYC which is usually on the low end snowfall wise of our major storms has had 6 storms of 19 inches or more in just the last 14 years an average of one almost every 2 years. Our area has seen at least a dozen storms in that period where a significant portion of our area saw 20 plus inches, 30 plus in many spots. In that context historic would have to be something 30 plus area wide and I don't think we're looking at anything like that.

I'd love to be wrong though.

Well thats exactly what the models are showing area wide, but its 10 days out so either could be wrong, but i do hope your wrong : )

[hyde345]

I wouldn't put too much credence in what GFS operational has in the mid and long range. It's a joke. It has rain here on New Year's Eve day. Not happening.

[sroc4]

No one better sleep on Christmas Day

[sroc4]

Remember this??  Now look.  Not bad.

[Guest]

Slow but steady changes to the NWS forecast for my area on LI.  Two days ago We went from a forecast of 44 Sunday night and rain followed by 52 and showers on Christmas Day to this as of this morning with 4 days still left

Sunday Night  A chance of rain before midnight, then rain and sleet likely between midnight and 3am, then rain, snow, and sleet likely after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Christmas DayA chance of snow showers, mixing with rain after 7am, then gradually ending. Partly sunny, with a high near 42. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

[rb924119]

MARK THIS DOWN IN YOUR CALENDARS FOLKS, MIKEY GET YOUR ARCHIVING GAME FACE ON. I DONT THINK IVE EVER BEEN MORE EXCITED FOR A PATTERN. 06z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS:

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