JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by aiannone on Tue Jan 30, 2018 4:40 am

Just went out and measured. 4” on the nose and coming down heavy still!
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by algae888 on Tue Jan 30, 2018 4:52 am

aiannone wrote:Just went out and measured. 4” on the nose and coming down heavy still!
I figured you must be doing good out there Alex officially 1.4 in here and moderately snowing now what a nice surprise models had a tough time with this one
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by mmanisca on Tue Jan 30, 2018 4:59 am

About 2 inches here in Deer Park. Went to bed thinking nothing and was awaken by what I thought was an outside light and it turns out to be this surprise snow!
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by skinsfan1177 on Tue Jan 30, 2018 5:09 am

About 2 inches here on grass and cars
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by syosnow94 on Tue Jan 30, 2018 5:18 am

Approaching 3”

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
427 AM EST Tue Jan 30 2018

CTZ007-008-010>012-NYZ078>081-177-179-301500-
/O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-180130T1500Z/
Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Northwestern Suffolk-
Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-
Northern Nassau-Southern Nassau-
427 AM EST Tue Jan 30 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Snow occurring. Plan on slippery road conditions,
including during the morning commute. Additional snow
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected, with total snow
accumulations of 2 to 5 inches.

* WHERE...Long Island, Southeastern Connecticut and Southern New
Haven County.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at
times. Highest snow amounts across Suffolk County on Long Island
where some localized 6 inch snow amounts
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by syosnow94 on Tue Jan 30, 2018 5:21 am

That’s 2-4” more additional on top of the 2-4” already on the ground from my house in eastern Nassau out through Alex and Scott. A 4-6” event. Awesome. Roads are horrendous. People will be waking up with no clue
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by docstox12 on Tue Jan 30, 2018 5:35 am

syosnow94 wrote:That’s 2-4” more additional on top of the 2-4” already on the ground from my house in eastern Nassau out through Alex and Scott.  A 4-6” event.  Awesome.  Roads are horrendous. People will be waking up with no clue

Wow, a tip o' the hat to Doc, he steadfastly was calling for this to happen.Looks like the pattern is set, this is going to be yet another S and E winter,

with the big snowstorm and now this. Enjoy it Shore and LI folks on the board!
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by sroc4 on Tue Jan 30, 2018 5:44 am

GOOD MORNING TO ALL!!!!!!





Not only am I alive and kicking but I am sitting at 6" of the white chedder with it still mod snowing with high ratio snow. Its currently 26.7°F



_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by sroc4 on Tue Jan 30, 2018 5:45 am




Last edited by sroc4 on Tue Jan 30, 2018 5:51 am; edited 1 time in total

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by syosnow94 on Tue Jan 30, 2018 5:48 am

Just shoveled. 3" on colder surfaces. 1 1/2" on pavement. Moderate snow. 28 degrees
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by syosnow94 on Tue Jan 30, 2018 5:49 am

Scott I'm gonna finish with over 4". You will hit 8 or 9
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by sroc4 on Tue Jan 30, 2018 5:53 am

rb924119 wrote:Just know Scott set up a perfect Assist opportunity for somebody to drill home, syo, but because I sincerely respect you, and do not exactly know you personally, I shall refrain from further comment ahahahaha that said, I hope you guys do cash in (as much as possible), but I would not get your hopes up. With the best layer-deep forcing continuing to outrun the lower-levels, I do not expect much more than snow showers and periods of light snow with minimal accumulations, likely remaining under an inch. Just my opinion, though. However, the last time I said that, or at least something similar, I discovered how crow tastes, so...........lmao

Would you like some fresh cracked black pepper or parmesian cheese with that? LOL. Sorry Ray I couldn't resist



_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by aiannone on Tue Jan 30, 2018 5:57 am


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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by SENJsnowman on Tue Jan 30, 2018 6:00 am

docstox12 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:That’s 2-4” more additional on top of the 2-4” already on the ground from my house in eastern Nassau out through Alex and Scott.  A 4-6” event.  Awesome.  Roads are horrendous. People will be waking up with no clue

Wow, a tip o' the hat to Doc, he steadfastly was calling for this to happen.Looks like the pattern is set, this is going to be  yet another S and E winter,

with the big snowstorm and now this. Enjoy it Shore and LI folks on the board!

Did he ever! Fabulous call SROC...and Alex really pulled this one on the boat for us yesterday! The Shore road your coattails a bit this time guys! lol

2" on top of the 24" we already had  (LI maybe even has a few more than us). That's over 2 feet for the coast and it's still January! Awesome. For us, it's the little winter that could!

I tend to think that the last part of winter (2/20-3/20) favors inland sections for bigger snows...ocean water seems too warm by then at least in c and s jersey.


Last edited by SENJsnowman on Tue Jan 30, 2018 6:01 am; edited 1 time in total

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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by syosnow94 on Tue Jan 30, 2018 6:00 am

Moderate here. Ripping out by you and Alex. Radar looks good. Cold and breezy. Incredible. People from Mineola east will wake up to 4-8” and no one has any idea it even snowed. The island will be in a panic
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by aiannone on Tue Jan 30, 2018 6:09 am

syosnow94 wrote:Moderate here. Ripping out by you and Alex.  Radar looks good.  Cold and breezy.  Incredible.  People from Mineola east will wake up to 4-8” and no one has any idea it even snowed.  The island will be in a panic

Precip shield actually pivoting now and reminding staionary. Still ripping here.
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by syosnow94 on Tue Jan 30, 2018 6:11 am

SENJsnowman wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:That’s 2-4” more additional on top of the 2-4” already on the ground from my house in eastern Nassau out through Alex and Scott.  A 4-6” event.  Awesome.  Roads are horrendous. People will be waking up with no clue

Wow, a tip o' the hat to Doc, he steadfastly was calling for this to happen.Looks like the pattern is set, this is going to be  yet another S and E winter,

with the big snowstorm and now this. Enjoy it Shore and LI folks on the board!

Did he ever! Fabulous call SROC...and Alex really pulled this one on the boat for us yesterday! The Shore road your coattails a bit this time guys! lol

2" on top of the 24" we already had  (LI maybe even has a few more than us). That's over 2 feet for the coast and it's still January! Awesome. For us, it's the little winter that could!

I tend to think that the last part of winter (2/20-3/20) favors inland sections for bigger snows...ocean water seems too warm by then at least in c and s jersey.

It actually is the opposite regarding the ocean temps. This is why coastal areas don’t warm up as fast as inland areas come springtime
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by syosnow94 on Tue Jan 30, 2018 6:12 am

aiannone wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Moderate here. Ripping out by you and Alex.  Radar looks good.  Cold and breezy.  Incredible.  People from Mineola east will wake up to 4-8” and no one has any idea it even snowed.  The island will be in a panic

Precip shield actually pivoting now and reminding staionary. Still ripping here.

I know. You guys jackpot. I’ll take my 4” if it keeps up and run. You boys go 7-9” easily cheers

south and east.....south and east....south and east...south and east afro
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by sroc4 on Tue Jan 30, 2018 6:17 am

Honestly I hope this doesn't sound too pompous but here is the post from Jan 19th regarding this potential along with the current 500mb map.  This is what I truly love about this field.  Even if there was a mere flurry in my back yard the fact that a storm did in fact develop was going to be a win from this discussion.

 Here is what I'm talking about for the end of the month on the ensembles.  What seems to be consistent on both GEFS and EPS is the development of a strong -WPO blocking ridge by day 7 +/- a day or two.  This will likely have down stream effects on the 500mb pattern that this far out the will likely be hidden in the means.   What I mean by this is that recall the ensemble mean 500mb charts are a smoothed out average of all its individual members.  The actual soln is hidden among the mean, but because there is still such a wide spread of solns within all the individual members of an ensemble mean forecast that far out in time, the result of what your looking at now in the 7-10day and beyond could be off by a significant margin from the end soln.  The mean forecast on an ensemble ends up correcting as we get closer in time and more and more individual members start converging/correcting towards the actual soln.  

Again with a strong -WPO by day 7 or so AND a -AO,  2-3days later we may see a piece of energy release from the west coast as hopefully a transient ridge in the PNA and/or EPO region occurs in response to the -WPO/-AO block.  IF this happens the "possibility" of a Canadian HP dropping far enough south such that this energy comes underneath towards the EC having a cold air source to tap into.  Remember this is a long way off in a pattern that is not overtly conducive to a storm, but there are ways for it to happen.  This has been proven over the last two winters.  It would have to be the preverbal the pieces have to come together "just right" scenario so for now odds are certainly against this from happening, BUT....for now at least its something to monitor.  Update on the evolution of the ensemble forecast in a few days.  




_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by syosnow94 on Tue Jan 30, 2018 6:25 am

You da man Scott. You pompous ass you
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Jan 30, 2018 6:32 am

Wow guys incredible 6 plus!! And most didn't think anyone would see more than snow inch. Frank sroc beat ya on this one. Even got some snow here looks bit over inch or so. Jelly you guys got a surprise half foot not often that happens. But happy for ya!!
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by syosnow94 on Tue Jan 30, 2018 6:38 am

3.5"
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by algae888 on Tue Jan 30, 2018 6:54 am

The 2010 s is just an incredible period For snow for the Northeast. This with a overall very warm and warming climate I mean the last 2 weeks have basically been a torch several days in the 50s unfavorable pattern and it just wants to snow this is so unlike the 70s when the pattern was favorable it was cold and it didn't snow. Anyone who Endeavors in long-range forecasting would be foolish not to go with above normal snow for our area. looks like plenty more to come in the next two weeks
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by GreyBeard on Tue Jan 30, 2018 6:59 am

I'm with you on this one syo but jeez, using a black ruler doesn't make it easy to see the numbers cyclops

Kudos to getting your pic oriented right. I'm tired of having to tilt my head all the time Smile

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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

Post by sroc4 on Tue Jan 30, 2018 7:02 am



_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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Re: JAN 28th-30th 2018: Harmless Frontal Passage? Coastal? IVT?

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