FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by algae888 on Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:30 am

I should also add that precipitation will fall mainly at night and it will be a quick hitter. my forecast low for Saturday morning is 24 degrees the ground will be cold will have very little Stickage problems if this is all snow
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by sroc4 on Thu Feb 15, 2018 11:39 am

Here is a quick GFS update. I like its track, but IMO it is not a strong enough LP. Here is why:

On pretty much all modeling there is a decent upper level jet streak (JS) in good position to the N NE of us which enhances the upper level divergence such that the R rear quadrant of the JS experiences enhanced vertical motion which should lower pressures more so than what is shown on the GFS surface map. GFS is too weak with the LP given the mid and upper levels IMO.

If the upper and mid levels are accurate this would a) tighten up the pressure gradient on this map which would allow for a more NE wind component vs easterly. This would keep the mid levels colder. And b) expand the precip shield NW. Verbatim. As it is with the weak LP the lower levels are remaining below freezing. Yesterday the GFS was warm






_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"[/b]
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by syosnow94 on Thu Feb 15, 2018 1:10 pm

For those of you who dont remember the winter of 95/96.....This past few weeks is very similar in the respect that every two days we have a storm dropping precipitation of anywhere from .25” to 1.5” qpf. This past few weeks it has been too mild, but in terms of frequency this is what 95/96 was except we had the cold. 3”+ snow every three days the entire winter. Such a tease.
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by sroc4 on Thu Feb 15, 2018 2:29 pm

There is a good chance north of the LIE vs south of the LIE will vary greatly here with thsis system if you live on LI

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"[/b]
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone on Thu Feb 15, 2018 2:35 pm

sroc4 wrote:There is a good chance north of the LIE vs south of the LIE will vary greatly here with thsis  system if you live on LI

Very possible. However those storms very rarely work out. it's either rain island wide or not. However, during nemo it was snowing 3-4" per hour at my house while the south shore and twin forks were raining. I've seen many more events where the forks rain while everyone snows, but the LIE division is pretty rare. We will see
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by Math23x7 on Thu Feb 15, 2018 2:39 pm

sroc4 wrote:There is a good chance north of the LIE vs south of the LIE will vary greatly here with thsis  system if you live on LI

More specifically, the cutoff would be the hill across Brooklyn/Queens/Nassau/Suffolk. I have mentioned this before on this forum. James is very familiar with this, especially with the hill on Commonwealth Blvd in Glen Oaks north of Union Turnpike. Also, James knows about this hill as Great Neck South is not far from Community Drive. North of the L.I.E there is a sharp downhill going into Manhasset. At the bottom is a hospital.

At any rate, I could see the rain/snow line aligning with this hill over the weekend. Since I am now north of that hill here in Manhattan, I should be snowing longer than in Bellerose Smile

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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone on Thu Feb 15, 2018 3:26 pm

Hmmmm NWS dropped the HWO
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone on Thu Feb 15, 2018 3:40 pm

Here ya go scott. LIE divider lol

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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone on Thu Feb 15, 2018 3:41 pm

18z NAM cold:

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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone on Thu Feb 15, 2018 3:43 pm

NAM Crushes LI, NNJ, CT

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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by sroc4 on Thu Feb 15, 2018 3:45 pm

18 z NAM would make everyone happy


_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"[/b]
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone on Thu Feb 15, 2018 3:48 pm

sroc4 wrote:18 z NAM would make everyone happy


Close call for LI, but with those kind of rates and this occurring at night, we should be okay.
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone on Thu Feb 15, 2018 3:48 pm

Seems like it just doesn't want to snow in DC this year lol
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by docstox12 on Thu Feb 15, 2018 3:48 pm

sroc4 wrote:18 z NAM would make everyone happy


Veeeery happy with 8 inches on this map in the HV!!! No mixing worries up here!
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone on Thu Feb 15, 2018 3:49 pm


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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone on Thu Feb 15, 2018 3:50 pm

NWS afternoon packages for all NE offices are late. They may be conversing. No one's HWO or AFD has been updated yet
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by Grselig on Thu Feb 15, 2018 3:53 pm

aiannone wrote:NWS afternoon packages for all NE offices are late. They may be conversing. No one's HWO or AFD has been updated yet

I lost my HWO this morning. Wayne (NNJ)
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone on Thu Feb 15, 2018 4:00 pm

Hi-Res last frame:

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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by essexcountypete on Thu Feb 15, 2018 4:10 pm

Math23x7 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:There is a good chance north of the LIE vs south of the LIE will vary greatly here with thsis  system if you live on LI

More specifically, the cutoff would be the hill across Brooklyn/Queens/Nassau/Suffolk.  I have mentioned this before on this forum.  James is very familiar with this, especially with the hill on Commonwealth Blvd in Glen Oaks north of Union Turnpike.  Also, James knows about this hill as Great Neck South is not far from Community Drive.  North of the L.I.E there is a sharp downhill going into Manhasset.  At the bottom is a hospital.

At any rate, I could see the rain/snow line aligning with this hill over the weekend.  Since I am now north of that hill here in Manhattan, I should be snowing longer than in Bellerose Smile

We have a similar feature here in Essex County, and you will often see Eastern and Western Essex with a divided forecast. I live nearer the eastern half on the side the first mountain you hit coming from the east off the coastal plain (and it's actually called First Mountain). It will often rain here in Bloomfield, but as you head up the hill to Montclair, and even more so as you get up to Verona and West Orange at the top of First Mountain, it will remain snow.

Gotta love micro-climates.
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone on Thu Feb 15, 2018 4:13 pm

Updated Disco:


Looking at the passing low Saturday night, latest analysis of model
runs shows a deeper low, further north per nam/wrf when compared to
GFS, ECMWF and Canadian NH. Thus QPF is more robust. Assuming this
is an outlier, which would result in lower qpf amounts, then
attention turns to Ptype. Agree wholeheartedly with previous shift`s
analysis, much of it below. Trend has been north, and warmer with
various guidance. So a hedge toward lower amounts right along the
coast.

The weaker GFS solution is likely due to its poor handling of cold
air damming east of the Appalachians as high pressure quickly races
to the east on Saturday. The location of the high is clearly not
ideal for damming, nor for a moderate to heavy snow event.
However, the fast development of the low along the Mid Atlantic
coast late Saturday afternoon, which quickly passes to the
southeast, may only result in a short period of weak onshore flow as
the high moves off the New England coast.

A SE flow along the coast is typically a snow to rain event, but in
this case a rain/snow mix at the onset may go to all snow somewhat
quickly as winds shift quickly to the NE. In addition, a deep-
layered W-SW flow does not look to erode the cold air aloft, with
the main question thus being the boundary layer temperature, through
about 1-2 kft.

With about quarter to half inch of liquid across the area (possibly
up to 3/4 of an inch??), there is the potential for advisory level
snows (2 to 4 inches) for much of the region. 3 to 6 north and west
of I95, with less near the coast.

Cannot rule out a low end warning event (around 6 inches). This
depends on exact track, as a further south track places highest QPF
along the coast. The best chance for this to occur would be along or
just inland from the coast due to the higher QPF forecast, provided
the event can be mainly in the form of snow. Temperatures are
forecast to be in the 20s inland and in the lower 30s along the
coast.

So in summation, 1 to 3 inches near the coast, 2 to 4 inches as you
head NW, with 3 to 6 across the interior. Highest amounts likely
across interior srn CT, New England. Collab with WPC, and
surrounding offices.
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone on Thu Feb 15, 2018 4:13 pm

LI/NYC left out of HWO
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone on Thu Feb 15, 2018 4:17 pm


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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone on Thu Feb 15, 2018 4:19 pm

18z NAM-Hi-Res

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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by aiannone on Thu Feb 15, 2018 4:49 pm

GFS rains/mixes all the way into the mid-hudson valley lol
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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

Post by RJB8525 on Thu Feb 15, 2018 4:51 pm

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Re: FEB 17th-18th Snow? Sleet? Rain?

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