Long Range Thread 16.0

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by dkodgis on Wed Apr 18, 2018 4:35 am

It looks like next week it will be in the low 60s
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by skinsfan1177 on Wed Apr 18, 2018 5:12 am

Can anyone give long range analysis after winter no one really mentions anything about long range
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Dtone on Wed Apr 18, 2018 8:12 am

Fededle22 wrote:I know a lot or people are still looking for more snow but I just can't take this cold anymore. Do we know when we are at least going to be at normal temperatures? Above normal? I'm not expecting Friday and Saturday temps but upper 60s would be nice.

looks like modest warning trend to consistent 60s next week..at least low 60s to start. Next week normals are generally mid 60s so some near normal weather for more than a day would feel nice.

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Wed Apr 18, 2018 8:36 am

Fededle22 wrote:I know a lot or people are still looking for more snow but I just can't take this cold anymore. Do we know when we are at least going to be at normal temperatures? Above normal? I'm not expecting Friday and Saturday temps but upper 60s would be nice.

Too many people I suppose upper 60s would be nice but still for April 18 that would be several degrees above normal for our area. Most average highs are still in the upper 50s to low 60's on April 18.

We've also reached the point in the season where coastal areas at least as far as normal highs start to be lower than inland areas. The average temperature also is not very different this time of year for most of the hundred mile radius from New York City.

The normal highs and lows For April 18th are the following:

New York City......62/45
Bridgeport...........58/42
Islip...................58/41
JFK....................60/44
LaGuardia............62/45
Poughkeepsie.......62/37
Trenton..............62/42
Allentown............62/39
Atlantic City........62/42
Albany................59/38
Binghamton..........55/37
Scranton............ 60/39
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by rb924119 on Wed Apr 18, 2018 11:16 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:Can anyone give long range analysis after winter no one really mentions anything about long range

Excpect the time-mean below, to significantly-below average temperature regime to continue on balance through the foreseeable future. Will there be some near or above average? Yes. But on the whole, this pattern persists through the beginning of May, at least. While we will lose the blocking beginning the end of next week, the MJO is progged to re-emerge back into cold phases for the eastern U.S. at roughly the same time, which after what might be another significant warm surge similar to last week, it will be short lived and likely followed by a resurgence of below-average temperatures for our region to start off May. Oo yeah, we can't forget the very strong signal for yet ANOTHER nor'easter, or at least strong inland runner Tuesday evening through Thursday of next week, featuring a wind-whipped rain and cold temperatures lol this will signal the transition away from our blocking, with the brief warm surge to follow.

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Apr 18, 2018 11:35 am

rb924119 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Can anyone give long range analysis after winter no one really mentions anything about long range

Excpect the time-mean below, to significantly-below average temperature regime to continue on balance through the foreseeable future. Will there be some near or above average? Yes. But on the whole, this pattern persists through the beginning of May, at least. While we will lose the blocking beginning the end of next week, the MJO is progged to re-emerge back into cold phases for the eastern U.S. at roughly the same time, which after what might be another significant warm surge similar to last week, it will be short lived and likely followed by a resurgence of below-average temperatures for our region to start off May. Oo yeah, we can't forget the very strong signal for yet ANOTHER nor'easter, or at least strong inland runner Tuesday evening through Thursday of next week, featuring a wind-whipped rain and cold temperatures lol this will signal the transition away from our blocking, with the brief warm surge to follow.

I agree with this. The models are hinting (or is it me hoping?) that we'll turn the corner to more spring-like weather by the 2nd week of May.

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by weatherwatchermom on Wed Apr 18, 2018 3:21 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Can anyone give long range analysis after winter no one really mentions anything about long range

Excpect the time-mean below, to significantly-below average temperature regime to continue on balance through the foreseeable future. Will there be some near or above average? Yes. But on the whole, this pattern persists through the beginning of May, at least. While we will lose the blocking beginning the end of next week, the MJO is progged to re-emerge back into cold phases for the eastern U.S. at roughly the same time, which after what might be another significant warm surge similar to last week, it will be short lived and likely followed by a resurgence of below-average temperatures for our region to start off May. Oo yeah, we can't forget the very strong signal for yet ANOTHER nor'easter, or at least strong inland runner Tuesday evening through Thursday of next week, featuring a wind-whipped rain and cold temperatures lol this will signal the transition away from our blocking, with the brief warm surge to follow.

I agree with this. The models are hinting (or is it me hoping?) that we'll turn the corner to more spring-like weather by the 2nd week of May.
Gosh Frank, I hope so...as mentioned in previous posts..they took out the boilers from all the schools in town and the class rooms are just freezing...the teachers are not allowed to have thermometers in their rooms..I am sure it's below 63 in those rooms in the mornings. I was in the building today and the teachers were walking around with gloves on...
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by brownie on Wed Apr 18, 2018 6:51 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:Gosh Frank, I hope so...as mentioned in previous posts..they took out the boilers from all the schools in town and the class rooms are just freezing...the teachers are not allowed to have thermometers in their rooms..I am sure it's below 63 in those rooms in the mornings. I was in the building today and the teachers were walking around with gloves on...
Teachers not allowed to have thermometers? That’s nuts!  Talk to any science teacher - they have thermometers as part of their lab equipment.  They’ll be Celsius thermometers, but any one of them can do the conversion to Fahrenheit.  

The heat seemed to be off for awhile in my school (or at least drastically turned down), but it’s been turned on again, thankfully.

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by weatherwatchermom on Wed Apr 18, 2018 10:01 pm

brownie wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:Gosh Frank, I hope so...as mentioned in previous posts..they took out the boilers from all the schools in town and the class rooms are just freezing...the teachers are not allowed to have thermometers in their rooms..I am sure it's below 63 in those rooms in the mornings. I was in the building today and the teachers were walking around with gloves on...
Teachers not allowed to have thermometers? That’s nuts!  Talk to any science teacher - they have thermometers as part of their lab equipment.  They’ll be Celsius thermometers, but any one of them can do the conversion to Fahrenheit.  

The heat seemed to be off for awhile in my school (or at least drastically turned down), but it’s been turned on again, thankfully.
Nope principal of elementary school won't let teachers see how cold it's getting.just horrible....




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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by Math23x7 on Thu Apr 19, 2018 2:16 am

weatherwatchermom wrote:
brownie wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:Gosh Frank, I hope so...as mentioned in previous posts..they took out the boilers from all the schools in town and the class rooms are just freezing...the teachers are not allowed to have thermometers in their rooms..I am sure it's below 63 in those rooms in the mornings. I was in the building today and the teachers were walking around with gloves on...
Teachers not allowed to have thermometers? That’s nuts!  Talk to any science teacher - they have thermometers as part of their lab equipment.  They’ll be Celsius thermometers, but any one of them can do the conversion to Fahrenheit.  

The heat seemed to be off for awhile in my school (or at least drastically turned down), but it’s been turned on again, thankfully.
Nope principal of elementary school won't let teachers see how cold it's getting.just horrible....

The fact that this could be the coldest April in the NYC region since 1975 can't be much more helpful...

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by skinsfan1177 on Thu Apr 19, 2018 7:05 am

Math23x7 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:
brownie wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:Gosh Frank, I hope so...as mentioned in previous posts..they took out the boilers from all the schools in town and the class rooms are just freezing...the teachers are not allowed to have thermometers in their rooms..I am sure it's below 63 in those rooms in the mornings. I was in the building today and the teachers were walking around with gloves on...
Teachers not allowed to have thermometers? That’s nuts!  Talk to any science teacher - they have thermometers as part of their lab equipment.  They’ll be Celsius thermometers, but any one of them can do the conversion to Fahrenheit.  

The heat seemed to be off for awhile in my school (or at least drastically turned down), but it’s been turned on again, thankfully.
Nope principal of elementary school won't let teachers see how cold it's getting.just horrible....

The fact that this could be the coldest April in the NYC region since 1975 can't be much more helpful...

Hey mike since you have the stats I have a question. What was the year 1966 at this time with cold for the northeast. Someone is asking me. Thanks
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by skinsfan1177 on Thu Apr 19, 2018 7:13 am

Also mike could you tell me what the summer was like for that year as well and what are the best analogs to look at for this year compared to others
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Thu Apr 19, 2018 9:39 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:Also mike could you tell me what the summer was like for that year as well and what are the best analogs to look at for this year compared to others

June 1966 was the 2nd warmest June ever in NYC (75.4), July 1966 was the 9th hottest July ever (79.7), and August 1966 (76.9) was the 23rd warmest ever in 150 years of record keeping.

Too young to personally remember it but it sounds like one god-awful summer I could do without a repeat, hating the heat as I do. I don't have the exact figures for the averages but I believe it was the warmest three month period n New York City history. Someone else that doesn't like the heat must have that time period embedded in their mind.

April 1966 the average was 49.7 which was less than 1 degree below normal for the time period.



Last edited by CPcantmeasuresnow on Thu Apr 19, 2018 9:54 am; edited 2 times in total
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by skinsfan1177 on Thu Apr 19, 2018 9:44 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Also mike could you tell me what the summer was like for that year as well and what are the best analogs to look at for this year compared to others

June 1966 was the 2nd warmest June ever in NYC (75.4), July 1966 was the 9th hottest July ever (79.7), and August 1966 (76.9) was the 23rd warmest ever in 150 years of record keeping.

Too young to personally remember it but it sounds like one god-awful summer I could do without a repeat, hating the heat as I do. I don't have the exact figures for the averages but I believe it was the warmest three month period n New York City history. Someone else that doesn't like the heat must have that time period embedded in their mind.

April 1966 the average was 49.7 which was less than 1 degree below normal for the time period.

Thank you mike could you confirm that the year was a cold spring

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Thu Apr 19, 2018 9:57 am

You got me curious skins so I just did the calculations on it.

June 1966 through August 1966 (77.3) was actually the second warmest three month period in New York City. I don't know how I could have forgotten this but 2010 June through August, 77.8, was the warmest three month period in New York City history. I probably tried to block that out of my mind.

And to your question there was nothing abnormally cold about that winter or that spring. Both were pretty average. The April average was 49.7 which was 1.7° below normal. The May average was 61.5 which was less than 1 degree below normal.

January February and March were also close to normal to somewhat above normal in 1966
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Thu Apr 19, 2018 10:20 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Also mike could you tell me what the summer was like for that year as well and what are the best analogs to look at for this year compared to others

June 1966 was the 2nd warmest June ever in NYC (75.4), July 1966 was the 9th hottest July ever (79.7), and August 1966 (76.9) was the 23rd warmest ever in 150 years of record keeping.

Too young to personally remember it but it sounds like one god-awful summer I could do without a repeat, hating the heat as I do. I don't have the exact figures for the averages but I believe it was the warmest three month period n New York City history. Someone else that doesn't like the heat must have that time period embedded in their mind.

April 1966 the average was 49.7 which was less than 1.7 degree below normal for the time period.

Thank you mike could you confirm that the year was a cold spring


And stop calling me Mike, Like Syos I prefer to be called Guy.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by skinsfan1177 on Thu Apr 19, 2018 10:29 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Also mike could you tell me what the summer was like for that year as well and what are the best analogs to look at for this year compared to others

June 1966 was the 2nd warmest June ever in NYC (75.4), July 1966 was the 9th hottest July ever (79.7), and August 1966 (76.9) was the 23rd warmest ever in 150 years of record keeping.

Too young to personally remember it but it sounds like one god-awful summer I could do without a repeat, hating the heat as I do. I don't have the exact figures for the averages but I believe it was the warmest three month period n New York City history. Someone else that doesn't like the heat must have that time period embedded in their mind.

April 1966 the average was 49.7 which was less than 1.7 degree below normal for the time period.

Thank you mike could you confirm that the year was a cold spring


And stop calling me Mike, Like Syos I prefer to be called Guy.

You got it guy my bad thanks for the info guy
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Thu Apr 19, 2018 2:25 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Also mike could you tell me what the summer was like for that year as well and what are the best analogs to look at for this year compared to others

June 1966 was the 2nd warmest June ever in NYC (75.4), July 1966 was the 9th hottest July ever (79.7), and August 1966 (76.9) was the 23rd warmest ever in 150 years of record keeping.

Too young to personally remember it but it sounds like one god-awful summer I could do without a repeat, hating the heat as I do but it was the 2nd warmest three month period n New York City history. Someone else that doesn't like the heat must have that time period embedded in their mind. June - August 2010 was the warmest.

April 1966 the average was 49.7 which was less than 1.7 degree below normal for the time period.

Thank you mike could you confirm that the year was a cold spring


And stop calling me Mike, Like Syos I prefer to be called Guy.

You got it guy my bad thanks for the info guy

And don't call me Shirley, (Airplane the movie, if you never have, watch it, if you have, watch again)
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by billg315 on Thu Apr 19, 2018 2:43 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Also mike could you tell me what the summer was like for that year as well and what are the best analogs to look at for this year compared to others

June 1966 was the 2nd warmest June ever in NYC (75.4), July 1966 was the 9th hottest July ever (79.7), and August 1966 (76.9) was the 23rd warmest ever in 150 years of record keeping.

Too young to personally remember it but it sounds like one god-awful summer I could do without a repeat, hating the heat as I do but it was the 2nd warmest three month period n New York City history. Someone else that doesn't like the heat must have that time period embedded in their mind. June - August 2010 was the warmest.

April 1966 the average was 49.7 which was less than 1.7 degree below normal for the time period.

Thank you mike could you confirm that the year was a cold spring


And stop calling me Mike, Like Syos I prefer to be called Guy.

You got it guy my bad thanks for the info guy

And don't call me Shirley, (Airplane the movie, if you never have, watch it, if you have, watch again)

Surely everyone has seen that movie.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Fri Apr 20, 2018 6:00 am

billg315 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Also mike could you tell me what the summer was like for that year as well and what are the best analogs to look at for this year compared to others

June 1966 was the 2nd warmest June ever in NYC (75.4), July 1966 was the 9th hottest July ever (79.7), and August 1966 (76.9) was the 23rd warmest ever in 150 years of record keeping.

Too young to personally remember it but it sounds like one god-awful summer I could do without a repeat, hating the heat as I do but it was the 2nd warmest three month period n New York City history. Someone else that doesn't like the heat must have that time period embedded in their mind. June - August 2010 was the warmest.

April 1966 the average was 49.7 which was less than 1.7 degree below normal for the time period.

Thank you mike could you confirm that the year was a cold spring


And stop calling me Mike, Like Syos I prefer to be called Guy.

You got it guy my bad thanks for the info guy

And don't call me Shirley, (Airplane the movie, if you never have, watch it, if you have, watch again)

Surely everyone has seen that movie.

I would hope so.

Should there be any out there that haven't, please add all of the Naked Gun movies to this weekends watch list. You won't be sorry.
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by rb924119 on Fri Apr 20, 2018 1:28 pm

Check out the below image regarding a temperature outlook from the Weather Channel I saw on another site. If the pattern that we are currently in holds into May, this forecast has a lot of merit, in my opinion. Something else to consider, is that if this pattern does hold, and these temperature anomalies begin to manifest, we have to lookout for an early start to the tropical storm season in close to the U.S., with the largest risk existing along the Southeast coastline. Discuss!!



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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by dkodgis on Sun Apr 22, 2018 11:56 am

I can see the temp anomaly so far because we are a week from May and Forsythia is now open. To me that is late to see it blooming. And I have had the wood stove on at night. Usually I have the heat off about a week ago but this year, in the am, it is cold in the house. I usually see the leaf canopy out by May 15 but this year, three weeks from that date, it all looks to be a few weeks behind schedule. I remember last year it was a struggle to get the pool open by Memorial Day. It looks the same and worse coming up (no hot weather). Even if the data says 5 degrees off, it feels more. My April 18 electric bill says 43 degrees for the time period and 48 last year for the time period.

I always thought the warmth came in the first week of May, when the Kentucky Derby ran, but now I think it is going to come in maybe the week of July 4
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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

Post by rb924119 on Tue Apr 24, 2018 11:51 pm

Something else to think about, and I made this point earlier, is you see that big high setting up over the eastern US for days ~7-10? Watch for tropical development, or at least some form of offshore development, within the next week (or so) thereafter with the Southeast coast as the target.

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Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

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