Re: March 2nd Nor'easter Update

by **sroc4** Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:21 am

Frank the primary is strong but the secondary WILL be stronger. By like 20mb once it’s stalls.

by **billg315** Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:21 am

I'll say this about the NAM. If it is wrong, it is going down with the ship, because it has remained steadfast throughout that this WILL change to snow for most and it WILL accumulate. Here we are under 24 hours away and it is still essentially spitting out the same result it has since Monday evening.

by **jimv45** Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:22 am

Rb got to be happy with this run. He has been on this from the start.

by **sroc4** Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:23 am

The more I think about it the more confident I am in thinking it will snow to the coast. The question is at what ratio. You have to smell the rain... there will likely be a cutoff such that 30 Miles west 6-12” 30miles east nada

by Guest Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:23 am

sroc4 wrote:Frank the primary is strong but the secondary WILL be stronger. By like 20mb once it’s stalls.

Scott if this is true then it’s pretty plain to see that the outcomes I’ll be determined by will the secondary that stalls be strong enough and stall long enough to erode the warmer air and bring us snow?

by track17 Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:24 am

Correct me if I am wrong but it seems like in the past 2 yrs the nam has been better then most other models

by track17 Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:25 am

Syo will you be doing another map then

by **sroc4** Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:30 am

syosnow94 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Frank the primary is strong but the secondary WILL be stronger. By like 20mb once it’s stalls.

Scott if this is true then it’s pretty plain to see that the outcomes I’ll be determined by will the secondary that stalls be strong enough and stall long enough to erode the warmer air and bring us snow?

Exactly. The primary will be in the low 990’s before weakening and transferring. The secondary will get to the low 970’s. Exactly Where is stalls and like I mentioned earlier this morning how qucicly the low can get organized and consolidated will be a key feature. If it remains elongated or double barreled in an east to west orientation that’s not good. The quicker it consolidates the better the orientation of the deformation band will be and the quicker the entire column cools. The elongated orientation brings the intense easterly orientation in the mid levels which brings the firehose of moisture riding the warm air off the ocean.

by **amugs** Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:30 am

sroc4 wrote:Frank the primary is strong but the secondary WILL be stronger. By like 20mb once it’s stalls.

The secondary is going to drop like a rock off a cliff once it gets off teh coast in my opinion not wish casting and looking at the NAM runs which have done well with these dynamic storm set ups before. AS Bernie Says dont EVER underestimate the power of teh Upper Level LP. The column of air with such prolific dynamics will easily cool and mix down teh cold air one mile above our heads. To hate this storm cause you are not seeing snow so be it but from a meteorological and tracking perspective this is awesome.

Again my top analogs are Xmass 2002 and October 2011 for the dynamics and possible snowfall amounts but higher in the highest terrain.

IF NAM verify then they become teh number one model for this winter with handling our storms of such complexity.

March 2nd Nor'easter Update - Page 13 Namconus_asnow_neus_18

March 2nd Nor'easter Update - Page 13 Namconus_asnow_neus_18

by **WeatherBob** Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:32 am

I have two things to say:

In Bernie Rayno I Trust

In NAM I Trust

I am sticking with my snow forecast for NNJ only:

Widespread 6 to 10 inches with 12 to 14 in higher elevations of Morris, Sussex and Passaic counties

One more:

In NJStrong Weather I Trust

by **amugs** Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:34 am

billg315 wrote:I'll say this about the NAM. If it is wrong, it is going down with the ship, because it has remained steadfast throughout that this WILL change to snow for most and it WILL accumulate. Here we are under 24 hours away and it is still essentially spitting out the same result it has since Monday evening.

AYE AYE CAPPIN

March 2nd Nor'easter Update - Page 13 57848683

by **amugs** Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:34 am

WeatherBob wrote:I have two things to say:

In Bernie Rayno I Trust

In NAM I Trust

I am sticking with my snow forecast for NNJ only:

Widespread 6 to 10 inches with 12 to 14 in higher elevations of Morris, Sussex and Passaic counties

ROBERTO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

BOOYAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH KASHA!!!!!!!!!!!

by **hyde345** Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:35 am

jimv45 wrote:What about western dutchess frank?

Jim, this is a really tough forecast for our area. We are not far enough west and don't have any elevation so that doesn't help as far as snow is concerned but there is still the real possibility with the dynamics involved we could be under the CCB and get dumped on like 12K Nam shows. If there was ever a nowcast situation this is it.

by bobjohnsonforthehall Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:35 am

I love the NAM.

Of course, if it gets this one wrong, the NAM is dead to me.

I can be fickle at times.

by **billg315** Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:38 am

I said Monday night and Tuesday that the GFS solution did not make much sense to me and that the early NAM runs seemed more logical. As we have gotten close the NAM has pretty much held serve. If I trust my instincts and my read on this system I think it goes to snow and heavy snow at that. It is however very hard to trust your instincts when the guys who get paid to do this on TV are telling me I'm wrong. lol (it doesn't help that it sure doesn't feel like snow today. Then again two weeks ago it was 57 degrees on Friday and dumping snow Saturday night).

by **amugs** Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:38 am

12K NAMS 1/4 brother 3K

March 2nd Nor'easter Update - Page 13 Nam3km_asnow_neus_46

by **sroc4** Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:41 am

Coastal plain: keep in mind the NAM maps are at 10:1 ratio. This will not be 10:1 for our area. If it accumulates expect 6-8:1 max.

by Carter bk Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:43 am

No coastal snows including nyc one map shows 12 plus one shows nothing wow tv mets are starting to get a lil uppy

by **amugs** Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:46 am

The 700 Mid layer look very good and sharpen sup on the NAM runs and consolidates quickly once it gets off teh coast - IF we can get this sucker about 50 miles more east tucked in even 75 then we can see some area wide high fives.

March 2nd Nor'easter Update - Page 13 Political-pictures-high-five

March 2nd Nor'easter Update - Page 13 Political-pictures-high-five

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:50 am

amugs wrote:12K NAMS 1/4 brother 3K

That is a crazy map, and by crazy I don't necessarily mean incorrect because I could definitely see something similar to this happening although most likely not in the exact spots it's depicting it right now. That map has 31 inches right over my house and 20 miles south 5 inches. That means someone is gonna be under some intense banding and 20 miles away someone is going to be weeping real tears. It could be any of us, this really is an nowcast situation if ever there was one

by Guest Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:54 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
amugs wrote:12K NAMS 1/4 brother 3K

That is a crazy map, and by crazy I don't necessarily mean incorrect because I could definitely see something similar to this happening although most likely not in the exact spots it's depicting it right now. That map has 31 inches right over my house and 20 miles south 5 inches. That means someone is gonna be under some intense banding and 20 miles away someone is going to be weeping real tears. It could be any of us, this really is an nowcast situation if ever there was one

31” at CP. close to 40” northern Ulster County Southern Greene county. 13” south shore LI and 6-8” N Shore. Some spots 2” in between. This model is on ACID

by **billg315** Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:55 am

This may be one of those situations where as a heavy band moves through you get giant, wet, blinding snowflakes, then as it lightens up they change back to rain. Then the next band comes through, and repeat.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:57 am

syosnow94 wrote: Not trying to step on any of the Mets’ toes here. Just bored

This is my first time doing this so feedback will be greatly appreciated. Thanks.

Green is 1-3” of rain. Snow mixed in at times no accumulation
Yellow is 1-2” rain. Change to snow Friday pm. 1-3” on grassy surfaces
Blue is rain to snow a Friday AM 2-5” mainly on colder surfaces
Red is snow all through a Friday. 5-10”.

*Red and Blue areas of elevation near or over 1000’ 12-16” with 2’ in the High peaks of the Catskills

You asked for feedback, otherwise I was going to hold my tongue.

Please don't ever attempt this again.

by DAYBLAZER Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:57 am

Greetings from Hopatcong NJ! I finally figured out my Username and password after going quiet for most of this year. This storm is just too wild too pass up on...really looking forward to riding this one out with you guys!

I notice there still seems to be a lack of representation from Sussex county on here so I'll be happy to report observations as this progresses.

My house sits at about 1000ft above sea level in the hills of Hopatcong. I'm hoping this may help me with snow totals? It's been a pretty lame winter for us so far here...

by **sroc4** Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:59 am

billg315 wrote:This may be one of those situations where as a heavy band moves through you get giant, wet, blinding snowflakes, then as it lightens up they change back to rain. Then the next band comes through, and repeat.

Exactly Bill. Under the heaviest banding you snow. Also have to remember that with intense storms like this to the east or west of the deform band you likely get subsidence or sinking air, and/or dual bands where in between is sinking air getting oogatz. This will be a highly feast or famine storm for many.

by **Dunnzoo** Thu Mar 01, 2018 10:00 am

sroc4 wrote:Coastal plain: keep in mind the NAM maps are at 10:1 ratio. This will not be 10:1 for our area. If it accumulates expect 6-8:1 max.

I was thinking the same thing Scott, LOW RATIOS peeps...take those totals down a notch. Heavy wet snow will also compress quickly, so if you are going to measure, clear an area after every few inches... hoping I'm clearing my area a LOT tomorrow!

by **jimv45** Thu Mar 01, 2018 10:02 am

Me like that Nam map here in Dutchess county! Hyde I think we will be very happy Saturday morning.

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