March Observations and Discussions

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Re: March Observations and Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Mar 30, 2018 12:04 pm

GFS prints out 1 to 3 inches of snow Monday morning.

More snowwwwwww

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Re: March Observations and Discussions

Post by docstox12 on Fri Mar 30, 2018 12:17 pm

Good news Frank! I need .375 inches to hit 80 for the season.

Mild, cloudy, only 1/2 of snowpack left on the property.
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Re: March Observations and Discussions

Post by syosnow94 on Fri Mar 30, 2018 3:57 pm

My local news 12 forecast just showed the NAM, EURO and GFS. ALL SHOW SNOW MONDAY MORNING. WHAT THE HELLS GOING ON
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Re: March Observations and Discussions

Post by aiannone on Fri Mar 30, 2018 4:23 pm

Upton:
The biggest change in the forecast is with a frontal wave that
24h hours ago was suppressed to the south of the region as it
moved off the Mid Atlantic coast. There are clear trends in the
operational guidance and their ensembles of a northward shift.
This would bring a light, wet snowfall to the region, late
Sunday night into Monday morning. The event looks to be no
longer than 6-8 hours with a quarter inch or less of liquid
equivalent. The highest amounts would be along the coast with
the potential for 1-2 inches of snowfall. With warm surface
temperatures, impacts are likely to minimal. The upper end of
this storm may be an advisory level event. The flow is just too
progressive to warrant a more significant event. Granted, the
guidance has been deficient the past few winters with the
expansion of precipitation on the northern periphery of these
system due to jet dynamics.

The cold air supply will be provided a cold front that passes
through on Sunday. Highs though will still get into the lower
and mid 50s and then fall off into the 30s Sunday night. This
type of events cool with the onset of the precipitation, which
is likely not until the pre-dawn hours Monday.
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Re: March Observations and Discussions

Post by syosnow94 on Fri Mar 30, 2018 4:28 pm

docstox12 wrote:Good news Frank! I need .375 inches to hit 80 for the season.

Mild, cloudy, only 1/2 of snowpack left on the property.

If you want that 1/2” come on down to Long Island Doc. We are the Snow Caputal of this forum after all
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Re: March Observations and Discussions

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Fri Mar 30, 2018 5:06 pm

syosnow94 wrote:My local news 12 forecast just showed the NAM, EURO and GFS. ALL SHOW SNOW MONDAY MORNING. WHAT THE HELLS GOING ON

We all died and are in heaven, that's what's going on.
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Re: March Observations and Discussions

Post by weatherwatchermom on Fri Mar 30, 2018 10:21 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:My local news 12 forecast just showed the NAM, EURO and GFS. ALL SHOW SNOW MONDAY MORNING. WHAT THE HELLS GOING ON

We all died and are in heaven, that's what's going on.

ha ha...I saw there was a possibility of snow..called my mom and she just screamed on the phone and literally hung up on me...lol(she hates snow and cold).

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Re: March Observations and Discussions

Post by Sanchize06 on Fri Mar 30, 2018 10:41 pm

0z NAM


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Re: March Observations and Discussions

Post by frank 638 on Sat Mar 31, 2018 5:00 am

I wonder if the Yankees will play on Monday for there game opener

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Re: March Observations and Discussions

Post by docstox12 on Sat Mar 31, 2018 6:00 am

syosnow94 wrote:
docstox12 wrote:Good news Frank! I need .375 inches to hit 80 for the season.

Mild, cloudy, only 1/2 of snowpack left on the property.

If you want that 1/2” come on down to Long Island Doc. We are the Snow Caputal of  this forum after all

Monroe HV 79.62 inches.That is all........
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Re: March Observations and Discussions

Post by skinsfan1177 on Sat Mar 31, 2018 6:12 am

Surprise not much talk in here about this. Impressive for this time of year. This may put my area over the 50 inch mark. Here are some model out put with snow. 2-4 for most.



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Re: March Observations and Discussions

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sat Mar 31, 2018 7:15 am

2.7 inches to reach 80, Monday morning might do it.

Then we turn our eyes to April 7th.

Why stop at 80? Let’s keep it rolling right through mid April. Orange Othelia May have been wrong about February but she nailed March and maybe April.

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Re: March Observations and Discussions

Post by Dtone on Sat Mar 31, 2018 7:55 am

Upton discussion, they're starting to get on board now for at least something for everyone except strong UHI areas.

"..In terms of snow intensity, models indicating
modest 850-700 mb level frontogenetic forcing to the south of
LI, placing NE NJ/NYC metro and LI in good dendritic snow growth
zone and potential for a period of moderate snow...
....Based on these factors, a preliminary
estimate of 2 to 4 inches of snow for much of LI and the hills
of NE NJ/Lower Hud looks reasonable, with 1 to 2 inches most
elsewhere. For NYC/NJ metro, urban heat island may keep accums
less than an inch...."

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Re: March Observations and Discussions

Post by dkodgis on Sat Mar 31, 2018 7:56 am

What he said
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Re: March Observations and Discussions

Post by billg315 on Sat Mar 31, 2018 8:36 am

Timing will be everything with accumulation with this. Right now, starting at 4 or 5 am is big because if it gets heavy it may stick, but remember even overnight temps only get to freezing (in some places not even) right at dawn in most areas Monday. If this delays at all and doesn’t start until 9 or 10 am I think you’ll see a lot of big pretty snowflakes falling but not sticking on most surfaces except maybe the heaviest band wherever that falls (right now probably Trenton NJ to LI).
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Re: March Observations and Discussions

Post by sroc4 on Sat Mar 31, 2018 8:43 am


_________________
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“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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