March Observations and Discussions

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

billg315 wrote:I assume this largely applies to NYC metro area as well. While March is known for the occasional late-season snowstorm, this confirms this year's persistent chill has been significant and anything but ordinary:

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/weather/philadelphia-weather-record-snow-cold-spring-20180328.html

Somewhat of an exaggeration as our March temps will end up 2-3 degrees below normal, nice but nothing earth shattering.

What is impressive is the streak of days in March, 21 at last count in a row, that were below normal, most between 3-7 degrees below so no real out of the ordinary cold but a couple to several degrees bellow each day which has been nice. It has also allowed those of us with a snow pack to keep it almost the entire month.

Yeah this March consistency is the most unsual part. A month known for wild variations was very stable. Stable on the cool side.
Despite that my car is covered in pollen today. Cherry blossoms etc are opening up.

GFS prints out 1 to 3 inches of snow Monday morning.

More snowwwwwww

My local news 12 forecast just showed the NAM, EURO and GFS. ALL SHOW SNOW MONDAY MORNING. WHAT THE HELLS GOING ON

Upton:
The biggest change in the forecast is with a frontal wave that
24h hours ago was suppressed to the south of the region as it
moved off the Mid Atlantic coast. There are clear trends in the
operational guidance and their ensembles of a northward shift.
This would bring a light, wet snowfall to the region, late
Sunday night into Monday morning. The event looks to be no
longer than 6-8 hours with a quarter inch or less of liquid
equivalent. The highest amounts would be along the coast with
the potential for 1-2 inches of snowfall. With warm surface
temperatures, impacts are likely to minimal. The upper end of
this storm may be an advisory level event. The flow is just too
progressive to warrant a more significant event. Granted, the
guidance has been deficient the past few winters with the
expansion of precipitation on the northern periphery of these
system due to jet dynamics.

The cold air supply will be provided a cold front that passes
through on Sunday. Highs though will still get into the lower
and mid 50s and then fall off into the 30s Sunday night. This
type of events cool with the onset of the precipitation, which
is likely not until the pre-dawn hours Monday.

docstox12 wrote:Good news Frank! I need .375 inches to hit 80 for the season.

Mild, cloudy, only 1/2 of snowpack left on the property.

If you want that 1/2” come on down to Long Island Doc. We are the Snow Caputal of this forum after all

syosnow94 wrote:My local news 12 forecast just showed the NAM, EURO and GFS. ALL SHOW SNOW MONDAY MORNING. WHAT THE HELLS GOING ON

We all died and are in heaven, that's what's going on.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:My local news 12 forecast just showed the NAM, EURO and GFS. ALL SHOW SNOW MONDAY MORNING. WHAT THE HELLS GOING ON

We all died and are in heaven, that's what's going on.

ha ha...I saw there was a possibility of snow..called my mom and she just screamed on the phone and literally hung up on me...lol(she hates snow and cold).

0z NAM

I wonder if the Yankees will play on Monday for there game opener

Surprise not much talk in here about this. Impressive for this time of year. This may put my area over the 50 inch mark. Here are some model out put with snow. 2-4 for most.

2.7 inches to reach 80, Monday morning might do it.

Then we turn our eyes to April 7th.

Why stop at 80? Let’s keep it rolling right through mid April. Orange Othelia May have been wrong about February but she nailed March and maybe April.

Upton discussion, they're starting to get on board now for at least something for everyone except strong UHI areas.

"..In terms of snow intensity, models indicating
modest 850-700 mb level frontogenetic forcing to the south of
LI, placing NE NJ/NYC metro and LI in good dendritic snow growth
zone and potential for a period of moderate snow...
....Based on these factors, a preliminary
estimate of 2 to 4 inches of snow for much of LI and the hills
of NE NJ/Lower Hud looks reasonable, with 1 to 2 inches most
elsewhere. For NYC/NJ metro, urban heat island may keep accums
less than an inch...."

What he said

Timing will be everything with accumulation with this. Right now, starting at 4 or 5 am is big because if it gets heavy it may stick, but remember even overnight temps only get to freezing (in some places not even) right at dawn in most areas Monday. If this delays at all and doesn’t start until 9 or 10 am I think you’ll see a lot of big pretty snowflakes falling but not sticking on most surfaces except maybe the heaviest band wherever that falls (right now probably Trenton NJ to LI).

New thread for Monday

https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t919-april-2nd-2018-snow-model-discussions-and-observations