Pain in the Butt March 7th Godzilla: Observations

Just let me be miserable at myself for a while as I watch my outlook that was looking SO GOOD for a while take the makeup off and turn into Matilda lol

So Suffolk County gets mostly rain>

sroc4 wrote:Latest Upton discussion:

Track of the storm has shifted slightly to the S/E with the
00Z/06Z suite of guidance. This is consistent with trends in
surface pressure falls and latest trends in upper low track
based on water vapor imagery. Based on this, the region will not
be impacted by the dry slot associated with this storm until
later than previously forecast, based on this, and a slightly
deeper low also being progged, have upped qpf amounts.

Occasional light-moderate snow before sunrise, then steady
moderate-heavy snow builds in from SW to NE and intensifies
fairly rapidly this morning. Do expect precipitation to still
mix with/change to rain over most of Suffolk County and parts of
New London County and S Middlesex. Less confident in any
mix/change over across S Nassau and Queens.

The slightly farther S/E track also means a colder solution on a
whole, an increased snow amounts for all but the SE 1/4-1/3 of
the CWA, where mixing of rain will likely significantly curtail
snow totals. Based on this, have upgraded the winter weather
advisory to a Winter Storm Warning for Southern Queens and
Nassau Counties, all other storm related headlines remain
unchanged.

The last few models I saw don't seem to agree with their Suffolk LI forecast. Are they talking Eastern LI? I Don't get it

rb924119 wrote:Just let me be miserable at myself for a while as I watch my outlook that was looking SO GOOD for a while take the makeup off and turn into Matilda lol

Your so funny Ray.  And here I am beating myself up for changing my map.  I had made my second call map at about 3:30pm yesterday and had it loaded and ready to send after 12z models completed, but found myself hesitant because I still believed that the track was a tad too far west. I sent it out around 9pm instead. After the NAM decided to come east I sent it anyway.  With a shift in track of as little as 50 miles would mean big differences in totals for a narrow band of geographic real estate.  It just so happens that that band holds the overwhelmingly vast majority of the population for this particular location, so you will have either a ton of people happy or angry depending on that final track.  I applaud you for not wavering; whereas, I got sucked into the modelology instead of going with my gut and holding my ground.  That said it hasn't officially happened yet, so time to watch it play out.  I still may be too low with my totals esp the western side of my darker Blue zone up against the pink if the east trends a tad further.  Imnot going to lie.  This winter has sucked a few years of life out of me.  After we are done I am likely to take a LOOONNNGGG hiatus from the board until the first trop threat...maybe

I dont like all that dry air to the south of Long Island. Gotta get it to fill in..

I was just telling Bill (bilig) that I'm still suspicious this ends up wrapping up more than what's depicted because of all the latent heat about to be released, but I fully admit I'm grasping at straws AhahAha I blew it. Choked. I was thinking about just laying low after this myself, but with the next threat looming, HELL NO I AINT!! AND IF I AINT TAKING A BREAK WELL THEN GOD DANG I AINT GONNA LET YOU SLIDE EITHER!!!! PUT ON YOUR BIG BOY PANTS, SCOTTY-BOY BECAUSE WE HAVE SOME TRACKING TO DO AND REDEMPTION TO EARN!!!!! WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!

mmanisca wrote:I dont like all that dry air to the south of Long Island. Gotta get it to fill in..

This is a beautiful example of how you get subsidence and dry air inbetween the original primary near the Ohio valley, and the new low off the EC in a Miller B set up.  The green areas on the 700mb map indicates a much higher relative humidity.  Again subsidence in between.  Textbook.  Once the transfer is complete watch out.  Also it appears our 500mb trough is going neg as we speak.  Its about to get exciting around these parts.  

Sroc Can you clear up Suffolk for me Mostly rain?

sroc4 wrote:

mmanisca wrote:I dont like all that dry air to the south of Long Island. Gotta get it to fill in..

This is a beautiful example of how you get subsidence and dry air inbetween the original primary near the Ohio valley, and the new low off the EC in a Miller B set up.  The green areas on the 700mb map indicates a much higher relative humidity.  Again subsidence in between.  Textbook.  Once the transfer is complete watch out.  Also it appears our 500mb trough is going neg as we speak.  Its about to get exciting around these parts.  

Nice write up! Just hope the timing is not too late..

rb924119 wrote:I was just telling Bill (bilig) that I'm still suspicious this ends up wrapping up more than what's depicted because of all the latent heat about to be released, but I fully admit I'm grasping at straws AhahAha I blew it. Choked. I was thinking about just laying low after this myself, but with the next threat looming, HELL NO I AINT!! AND IF I AINT TAKING A BREAK WELL THEN GOD DANG I AINT GONNA LET YOU SLIDE EITHER!!!! PUT ON YOUR BIG BOY PANTS, SCOTTY-BOY BECAUSE WE HAVE SOME TRACKING TO DO AND REDEMPTION TO EARN!!!!! WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I'm still EXTREMELY worried for that very same reason the only area to not benefit would be Suffolk County esp eastern Suffolk. While most of everyone is reposting snow I will be reporting



At least for a time. I will remain cautiously optimistic out by me and hope for the best. Cheers all time to get the kids on the bus.

at 7:30, an inch. Very light so far.

Coating on cars and grass, temps are struggling should be at 32* soon as it's been dropping past few hours

37 and rain here still..

Extremely light coating of snow at 0430. Just woke again and it's now all rain. WSW is still up for 8-10". 34 degrees, wind at 11mph.







Edited to add: big fat flakes are now falling. What a difference a minute makes.

34 and cloudy with a trace on the ground here in Deer Park

yes, temp  is hovering around 32.  I am a little surprised it is not lower. CP, Doc, are you seeing rain or snow this morning?

And no wind to speak of.  

Snow does look fluffy and a bit on the heavy side of the mix.

Coating here in Nutley, 34F. I'm at work in Fairlawn, but I believe I'll be working only a half day. I hope so anyways.

Still raining here hopefully expecting a change over soon

How we feeling this morning? Fun day ahead!

Here's some images from the latest HRRR. The pink color represents heavy snowfall. The purple would be your ice/sleet. Look at the scale!

12pm



2pm



4pm



6pm



Total snow

33.2 all snow not sticking to roads and sidewalks

light snow 32°. Winds about 4mph. Wayne, NJ.

looks like between 1pm and 6pm will be an insane blizzard. Guess we're dealing with the shart before the diarrhea.

30 degrees here in the hills of Hopatcong, about 2 inches of snow on the ground. Sticking to everything. Coming down at a light/moderate rate.

ALSO I GOT MY POWER BACK!!!! I made my first cup of coffee in 5 days this morning.

DAYBLAZER wrote:30 degrees here in the hills of Hopatcong, about 2 inches of snow on the ground. Sticking to everything. Coming down at a light/moderate rate.

ALSO I GOT MY POWER BACK!!!! I made my first cup of coffee in 5 days this morning.

AWESOME news! Perfect timing

I'm living vicariously through you all, as are mikey and Aresian. Make us proud!!!!

Frank I get crushed on those. I can’t wait

Got my internet back!! 33° light/moderate snow, about 1/2" on grass and cars, pavement just wet... still no power, built a shed for the generator- 20 gallons of gas, so let it snow!!!!