March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

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March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Mar 12, 2018 8:02 am

Simply put, it did not work out for us.

But before people begin to insinuate I "hyped" this event, do note that most areas will see accumulating snowfall whereas most TV outlets refused to forecast snow the end of last week. Also note New England will see a Godzilla - which means - our area was VERY close to being in these high totals if the phase between the northern and southern branches occurred just 6 hours quicker. Timing was JUST off for us.

Precipitation will break out after 8pm tonight. It could be a rain/snow mix before it changes to all snow after Midnight. Snow will come to an end in the mid-morning hours on Tuesday. Out on Long Island, it may snow through 12-1pm. Here is my snow map for this event:



There may be pockets of 3"+ of snow N&W of NYC.

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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by syosnow94 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 8:14 am

Great job buddy. Nice map. Sucks we just missed out. I agree that our board and you specifically called this early while no one else said a word.

Nice map too. It agrees with mine pretty spot on. And as .ike the way you got me into the 6” line. Thanks.
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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by weatherwatchermom on Mon Mar 12, 2018 8:16 am

Thank you Frank!!
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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by syosnow94 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 8:24 am

My son pointed out this morning that the radar looks good along and west of the coast. Hopefully we get a surprise but I’m not feeling it
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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by sroc4 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 8:46 am

Just to give you an idea of just how close this is to a wide spread Godzilla at least....later this afternoon IF the northern energy were shifted just a smidge to the west, OR if the S energy was just a little faster and further East THEN the southern energy would have been out ahead of the N energy by just enough to dig into the back side and phase a touch earlier than what will happen.  This would yield a result that would have the N energy enhance the system for us.  Instead because of the positioning/relationship to one another the N energy will act to steer/deflect the LP center just far enough S&E before phasing leaving us out of the best banding.  Just remember the peak of the storm is still over 17-20 hrs away so subtle shifts to track and timing of phasing could still mean subtle shifts to the heaviest snow axis.  NAM and Euro overnight hinted at this earlier interaction.  



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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by syosnow94 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 9:07 am

We need a huge weenie band to set up over our area and sit for awhile to surprise us all. It’s happened before. If not I hope this northern energy is so early and east that it kicks the whole thing waaaaay OTS so you know where gets shafted too.
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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by sroc4 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 9:09 am

syosnow94 wrote:We need a huge weenie band to set up over our area and sit for awhile to surprise us all.  It’s happened before.  If not I hope this northern energy is so early and east that it kicks the whole thing waaaaay OTS so you know where gets shafted too.

As it stands I stand to get a nice little event..possibly warning criteria..and you want to kick it east just so those who we need not mention get nothing? Come on Man!


_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by bobjohnsonforthehall on Mon Mar 12, 2018 9:40 am

The Red Sox do indeed suck. Just wanted to put that out there.
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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by syosnow94 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 9:44 am

sroc4 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:We need a huge weenie band to set up over our area and sit for awhile to surprise us all.  It’s happened before.  If not I hope this northern energy is so early and east that it kicks the whole thing waaaaay OTS so you know where gets shafted too.

As it stands I stand to get a nice little event..possibly warning criteria..and you want to kick it east just so those who we need not mention get nothing?  Come on Man!


yeah I guess you are right. I may eek out 6" too. I just hate that place. You do deserve a good dump though.
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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Mar 12, 2018 9:49 am

So painful


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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by bobjohnsonforthehall on Mon Mar 12, 2018 9:52 am

What is the best website that will show this interaction (or lack thereof) as it happens in real time?
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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by sroc4 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 9:54 am

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:What is the best website that will show this interaction (or lack thereof) as it happens in real time?

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by amugs on Mon Mar 12, 2018 9:54 am

syosnow94 wrote:We need a huge weenie band to set up over our area and sit for awhile to surprise us all.  It’s happened before.  If not I hope this northern energy is so early and east that it kicks the whole thing waaaaay OTS so you know where gets shafted too.

Syo wth? You are warning criteria area and a 15 mile tick west on this brings all of LI and teh edges of NYC to warning criteria - this is as I have said all along a hair off - like 4 hours if that for the phase that woudl have crushed us.

Frank great write up and snow map.

People around my neck of the woods saying it is over - I said it aint over yet we still have half a day before we see what is what. Models seem to be showing what NWS is saying - even the Euro which was way east came way west last night.


SO FRICKING CLOSE!!!!!!!!!! ARGHHHHHHHHHHHHH the butterfly effect!!


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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by sroc4 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 9:56 am

Frank_Wx wrote:So painful


Its like watching Judge hitting it to deep center field towards monument park only to see it caught up against the wall on the warning track.

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by sroc4 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:05 am

Not bad...


_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by sroc4 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:07 am


_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by bobjohnsonforthehall on Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:09 am

It sounds like we want to see the phase happen earlier and with the storm further south if I am understanding correctly. Where are the models currently thinking the phase will happen, where would it be optimal for our area to take the hit (although I assume optimal is likely off the table) and where is it still reasonable to think that the phase could happen to get us in on more of the action?
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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by sroc4 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:10 am

12K slight improved aloft...3K looking better aloft as well.

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:16 am

sroc4 wrote:12K slight improved aloft...3K looking better aloft as well.

Both increased snowfall amounts

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2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
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2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018: 35"

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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by sroc4 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:18 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
sroc4 wrote:12K slight improved aloft...3K looking better aloft as well.

Both increased snowfall amounts

3K has northern trough much sharper and interacting with S trough pulling energy back and closing off H5 S of our lat



Last edited by sroc4 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:19 am; edited 1 time in total

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:19 am


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2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018: 35"

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CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by syosnow94 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:21 am

amugs wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:We need a huge weenie band to set up over our area and sit for awhile to surprise us all.  It’s happened before.  If not I hope this northern energy is so early and east that it kicks the whole thing waaaaay OTS so you know where gets shafted too.

Syo wth? You are warning criteria area and a 15 mile tick west on this brings all of LI and teh edges of NYC to warning criteria - this is as I have said all along a hair off - like 4 hours if that for the phase that woudl have crushed us.

Frank great write up and snow map.

People around my neck of the woods saying it is over - I said it aint over yet we still have half a day before we see what is what. Models seem to be showing what NWS is saying - even the Euro which was way east came way west last night.

I just want everyone to cash in not just us.


SO FRICKING CLOSE!!!!!!!!!! ARGHHHHHHHHHHHHH the butterfly effect!!

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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:21 am

Frank_Wx wrote:

Updated


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2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018: 35"

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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by Math23x7 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:28 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
sroc4 wrote:12K slight improved aloft...3K looking better aloft as well.

Both increased snowfall amounts

12-km NAM actually decreased snow totals for NYC. The 3-km NAM techincally "increased" snow totals, but it's barely noticeable on the map.

Stick a fork in it...

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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by aiannone on Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:43 am

"way east?" lol

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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

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