March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

To add some perspective to anyone living and dying with each model run. The last storm the radar looked terrible that morning TWC lowered my forecast from 8-12 to 5-8, by that night I had over two feet.

I'm not saying this is the same setup, it's somewhat different but the logic remains the same. Even the mesoscales can't pckkup who will band, dryslot be subject to subsidence etc with any degree of certainty, 10-20 miles can make great differences.

Enjoy the show I'm in it for the stats today and hopng like everyone else my area over performs.

Please step away from the ledges. When you feel yourself short of breath go to the weather stats thread and peruse the stats of storms and winters past.

May the Frontogenesis Forcing be with you.

nutleyblizzard wrote:

billg315 wrote:As for jackpot zones, GFS actually moves it slightly west over eastern PA/NW NJ. The NAM has it from NYC across LI. Either way I think model snow maps aren’t great at pinpointing jackpots anyway so that we won’t know until the heavy bands set up this afternoon.

Bingo! With every ensuing model run that comes out, it gives a different depiction of snow totals depending where the heavier snow bands setup. Thats the reason for the panic and joy in this forum. We just have to wait till this afternoon how things will shake down. One things for sure, someone is going to get clobbered. Hopefully it will be most of us. Going to work now.

Well, I guess I'm not going to work today. I was just out the door when my boss texted me to stay home. Let the storm tracking commence!!!

Some flakes!

Here will be a fun game to play this morning (last storm gave me this idea): count how many social media posts you can find this morning from people, who know nothing about meteorology and ignore details like “start” and “end” times, saying this storm is “a bust” or “it’s not even sticking” or “over-hyped”, before the real heavy snow kicks in later this morning/afternoon. Whoever finds the most gets the snow jackpot zone and heavy banding this afternoon. Lol

Snow starting to pick up in intensity a bit. Very breezy too. 36F.

nutleyblizzard wrote:

billg315 wrote:As for jackpot zones, GFS actually moves it slightly west over eastern PA/NW NJ. The NAM has it from NYC across LI. Either way I think model snow maps aren’t great at pinpointing jackpots anyway so that we won’t know until the heavy bands set up this afternoon.

Bingo! With every ensuing model run that comes out, it gives a different depiction of snow totals depending where the heavier snow bands setup. Thats the reason for the panic and joy in this forum. We just have to wait till this afternoon how things will shake down. One things for sure, someone is going to get clobbered. Hopefully it will be most of us. Going to work now.

Tx be safe

33F and starting to snow lightly. I went to work, but I live 3 blocks from my automotive shop. No work scheduled, so I'll nowcast until all hell breaks loose. Probably after lunch. Then I'll go home and drink scotch.

Just woke up to Moderate sleet costing everything setting the stage for the snow to accumulate quick

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:To add some perspective to anyone living and dying with each model run. The last storm the radar looked terrible that morning TWC lowered my forecast from 8-12 to 5-8, by that night I had over two feet.

I'm not saying this is the same setup, it's somewhat different but the logic remains the same. Even the mesoscales can't pckkup who will band, dryslot be subject to subsidence etc with any degree of certainty, 10-20 miles can make great differences.

Enjoy the show I'm in it for the stats today and hopng like everyone else my area over performs.

Please step away from the ledges. When you feel yourself short of breath go to the weather stats thread and peruse the stats of storms and  winters past.

May the Frontogenesis Forcing be with you.

Thank you

Good morning..woke up to sleet this morning...now snowing starting to cover grass and sidewalks. Temp currently 34* winds steady at 10

Started snowing about 20 minutes ago only sticking to the grass so far

Sleeting and 36* in Lakewood

Heavy snow! 27.5 degrees. Roads are treacherous out here.

Ratios seem good judging flakes. 2.5” on ground.

Click the radar tab at the top then click the first one and look over the ocean. Radar is exploding

The rain/snow line is passing over coastal Ocean County now and the radar looks to be building again. 37* light sleet, and the crockpot DID get loaded with a beef rib stew last night. All reasons for some early morning optimism.

Burst of moderate to heavy snow now Radar really blossomy here we go folks

NWS saying 12-15:1 ratios. Highest away from the coast. With 1” of qpf (many of us are forecast for 1.5”+) thats 12-15” area wide minimum. More for those with higher qpf. As long as we don’t lose too much to sleet

Big fat flakes

Moderate snow in Brooklyn. Sticking to grassy areas with a dusting to a quarter inch.

Yesterday had nothing but a few sprinkles of what may have been hail on the roof next door - over before Jeopardy started.

Looked out the window this morning at 6:30 and there was nothing going on.

7:05am there was a gust of wind and with it came fine flakes.

By 7:35am there were fat flakes a'falling, coating not just grassy areas and cars but already starting to stick on the sidewalks and other cemented areas.

Now, at 8am, there looks to be about 1/4 inch on the cars, just a coating on the sidewalks and driveways, but some people are already out there sweeping, shoveling, and salting some areas, like a condo's long driveway that goes up a slight hill.

Oh, well. We missed out on all the other recent storms, so I guess we'll get a whole winter's worth in this one.

syosnow94 wrote:Click the radar tab at the top then click the first one and look over the ocean. Radar is exploding

Good morning love that image

If you animate WV imagery, you will see our mid-level lows are in the process of "moving" from the parent to a secondary as the more "meso"-synoptic scale trough axes align themselves and the energy reconsolidates in the base of the reconfiguring trough. This is why you are now seeing the precipitation blossoming so rapidly - more dynamics becoming involved as the mid-level lows approach with their respective forcings.

First few flakes have begun, 30.9° NE winds 5-9mph, i'm not expecting too much up this way because of the sharp cut off that may occur, but I think you folks from about central Westchester south are going to get slammed! Everybody enjoy the storm!!

Radar is blossoming

Sussex-Warren-Morris-Carbon-Monroe-Northampton-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown,
Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Bethlehem, and Easton
809 AM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

...Major winter storm is beginning...

Snow has developed in the southern Poconos and is spreading into
northwest New Jersey this morning. Snow rates are beginning to
increase and will reach at least a half inch per hour this
morning. The heaviest snow is expected this afternoon, where
at least inch-per-hour snow rates are possible for several hours.
Unnecessary travel is strongly discouraged.

850mb temps..still warm by the Jersey Shore. These will crash by early afternoon as low matures