FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
.Quietace wrote:I wouldn't say that it was GFS like at allrb924119 wrote:Quietace wrote:No large differences on the Euro through 84...
Large difference now haha well further north compared to 00z. GFS-esque.
The correction, not the actual run. Sorry, should have been more specific.
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
Friday morning already moving into va versus gfs stall.
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
How is an NC/SC landfall similar to something missing OBX to the east. The FV3, which has a much better handle on the intensity of the storm is almost identical to the Euro. It is clear the GFS has a poleward bias. I am still pretty confident it will landfall between say Charleston and OBX.jmanley32 wrote:how is it diff than hrs in the track looked pretty similar to me except made full landfall. Euro is also super fast the 24 he jump is like 500 miles plus.Quietace wrote:I wouldn't say that it was GFS like at allrb924119 wrote:Quietace wrote:No large differences on the Euro through 84...
Large difference now haha well further north compared to 00z. GFS-esque.
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
12z Euro exact track
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
I didn't get that far in run before I posted I should waited. It is quite diff and it even gets further north as heads inland.Quietace wrote:How is an NC/SC landfall similar to something missing OBX to the east. The FV3, which has a much better handle on the intensity of the storm is almost identical to the Euro. It is clear the GFS has a poleward bias. I am still pretty confident it will landfall between say Charleston and OBX.jmanley32 wrote:how is it diff than hrs in the track looked pretty similar to me except made full landfall. Euro is also super fast the 24 he jump is like 500 miles plus.Quietace wrote:I wouldn't say that it was GFS like at allrb924119 wrote:Quietace wrote:No large differences on the Euro through 84...
Large difference now haha well further north compared to 00z. GFS-esque.
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
Well, it was fully expected the EC suite would correct north some, given the majority of the south leaning members on the EPS were the ones with weaker initial condition perturbations on the MSLP, which given the intensity this morning ~999mb, was too weak and would be to far south given the low-level steering flow. However, the EC op has been very consistent, in which the GFS op has not, where a small 75 miles shift is not significant in a 5-6 day forecast. What is significant is the variations between the GFS and its FV3 counterpart, where when using the same resolution the difference is much greater. Given the upper-level pattern, I still feel this goes into SC/NC.rb924119 wrote:.Quietace wrote:I wouldn't say that it was GFS like at allrb924119 wrote:Quietace wrote:No large differences on the Euro through 84...
Large difference now haha well further north compared to 00z. GFS-esque.
The correction, not the actual run. Sorry, should have been more specific.
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
huh? You mean u think that's exactly what she's go do? That's a incomplete statement sorry I don't understand.Frank_Wx wrote:12z Euro exact track
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
Jman that's the track the 12z euro just showed. WxBell plotted it out
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
Nvm retract my statement she does out well south of the area the block is super strong.
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
Frank_Wx wrote:Jman that's the track the 12z euro just showed. WxBell plotted it out
Image isn't showing, Frank.
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
there's no image showing on my phone that would be why I'm confused lolFrank_Wx wrote:Jman that's the track the 12z euro just showed. WxBell plotted it out
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
Quietace wrote:Well, it was fully expected the EC suite would correct north some, given the majority of the south leaning members on the EPS were the ones with weaker initial condition perturbations on the MSLP, which given the intensity this morning ~999mb, was too weak and would be to far south given the low-level steering flow. However, the EC op has been very consistent, in which the GFS op has not, where a small 75 miles shift is not significant in a 5-6 day forecast. What is significant is the variations between the GFS and its FV3 counterpart, where when using the same resolution the difference is much greater. Given the upper-level pattern, I still feel this goes into SC/NC.rb924119 wrote:.Quietace wrote:I wouldn't say that it was GFS like at allrb924119 wrote:Quietace wrote:No large differences on the Euro through 84...
Large difference now haha well further north compared to 00z. GFS-esque.
The correction, not the actual run. Sorry, should have been more specific.
The EURO has been no more consistent than the GFS lol the two most consistent models have been the ICON and the UKMET.
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
Yeah...rb924119 wrote:Quietace wrote:Well, it was fully expected the EC suite would correct north some, given the majority of the south leaning members on the EPS were the ones with weaker initial condition perturbations on the MSLP, which given the intensity this morning ~999mb, was too weak and would be to far south given the low-level steering flow. However, the EC op has been very consistent, in which the GFS op has not, where a small 75 miles shift is not significant in a 5-6 day forecast. What is significant is the variations between the GFS and its FV3 counterpart, where when using the same resolution the difference is much greater. Given the upper-level pattern, I still feel this goes into SC/NC.rb924119 wrote:.Quietace wrote:I wouldn't say that it was GFS like at allrb924119 wrote:Quietace wrote:No large differences on the Euro through 84...
Large difference now haha well further north compared to 00z. GFS-esque.
The correction, not the actual run. Sorry, should have been more specific.
The EURO has been no more consistent than the GFS lol the two most consistent models have been the ICON and the UKMET.
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
Well the 12z runs definitely strengthen Florence a little bit sooner than previous runs. That allows it to get a little further north than what was being shown yesterday. There's still 5 days of trending to go and whether that ridge will be as strong as modeled is still a big question
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
I'm with mg just maybe a bit east off our coast. Close enough to watch no direct impacts. In agreement it skirts obx and finds a way ne off the coast. Still very close for concern. I think we have our solution by Monday depending on the blocking H.
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
Take always thus far is that we clearly don’t have the final soln. Of course statistically speaking throwing a dart between s Carolina and OBX your more likely to be correct without having been a part of the discussion thus far but a track north of that is still not out of the question yet. The other thing that isn’t discussed, which I’m shocked actually, is that the euro stall for 3+ days in the same spot and drops epic Harvey like rains. And yes that is GFs esq in that it did the same thing only further east. There are still plenty of details yet to be ironed out. Avoid the I know where she’s making landfall traps until she gets ramped up. Because she will be rapidly bombing for the next 2 days. Also recon data will be available for tonight’s 00z runs. Thus far not so much. There is a reason the NHC come of uncertainty hasn’t reached the coast yet
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
If you kicked yours out to the east once it reaches southern NJ, and give me a tolerance of +/- 75 miles either side, you have my vote. What you have is darn near identical to how I think this ultimately plays out (for what little it's worth lol).
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
So you think we may have sig impacts still possible? 75miles offshore is nothing could even include the coast near the ce nter depending on the size. Or do you mean WAY east. And your ideas are worth a lot, you often times give very good and accuarate info, no more or less so than pro mets.rb924119 wrote:
If you kicked yours out to the east once it reaches southern NJ, and give me a tolerance of +/- 75 miles either side, you have my vote. What you have is darn near identical to how I think this ultimately plays out (for what little it's worth lol).
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
What are the chances of that rain being dropped up here? The GFS showed it yesterday, that I could do without, it showed like 10-15 inches, have not seen euro totals for carolina and VA, do you have a map?sroc4 wrote:Take always thus far is that we clearly don’t have the final soln. Of course statistically speaking throwing a dart between s Carolina and OBX your more likely to be correct without having been a part of the discussion thus far but a track north of that is still not out of the question yet. The other thing that isn’t discussed, which I’m shocked actually, is that the euro stall for 3+ days in the same spot and drops epic Harvey like rains. And yes that is GFs esq in that it did the same thing only further east. There are still plenty of details yet to be ironed out. Avoid the I know where she’s making landfall traps until she gets ramped up. Because she will be rapidly bombing for the next 2 days. Also recon data will be available for tonight’s 00z runs. Thus far not so much. There is a reason the NHC come of uncertainty hasn’t reached the coast yet
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
jmanley32 wrote:So you think we may have sig impacts still possible? 75miles offshore is nothing could even include the coast near the ce nter depending on the size. Or do you mean WAY east. And your ideas are worth a lot, you often times give very good and accuarate info, no more or less so than pro mets.rb924119 wrote:
If you kicked yours out to the east once it reaches southern NJ, and give me a tolerance of +/- 75 miles either side, you have my vote. What you have is darn near identical to how I think this ultimately plays out (for what little it's worth lol).
It's tough to draw on mobile, but as *ROUGH ESTIMATE*, my approximate thinking is in green. Please note I think it will only achieve a latitude of about Cape May before kicking east, but to try to get that accurate with my fat fingers on a small screen is a fool's errand aha also, once it landfalls, it CREEPS northward before accelerating back out over the open water as it runs beacon into the block.
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
But yes, I absolutely still feel that substantial SECONDARY impacts are likely for much of our area, although NO DIRECT LANDFALL.
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
I definitely agree with this just shifted a little more to the SW and a little less latitude. The "creep" is the next big forecast challenge, especially with the rains in the east this summer and whether or not a PRE sets up before landfall.rb924119 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:So you think we may have sig impacts still possible? 75miles offshore is nothing could even include the coast near the ce nter depending on the size. Or do you mean WAY east. And your ideas are worth a lot, you often times give very good and accuarate info, no more or less so than pro mets.rb924119 wrote:
If you kicked yours out to the east once it reaches southern NJ, and give me a tolerance of +/- 75 miles either side, you have my vote. What you have is darn near identical to how I think this ultimately plays out (for what little it's worth lol).
It's tough to draw on mobile, but as *ROUGH ESTIMATE*, my approximate thinking is in green. Please note I think it will only achieve a latitude of about Cape May before kicking east, but to try to get that accurate with my fat fingers on a small screen is a fool's errand aha also, once it landfalls, it CREEPS northward before accelerating back out over the open water as it runs beacon into the block.
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
Well whatever the end result is we def, have had one that has defied a lot of climo and taught me some new stuff, so thats something to take away.Quietace wrote:I definitely agree with this just shifted a little more to the SW and a little less latitude. The "creep" is the next big forecast challenge, especially with the rains in the east this summer and whether or not a PRE sets up before landfall.rb924119 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:So you think we may have sig impacts still possible? 75miles offshore is nothing could even include the coast near the ce nter depending on the size. Or do you mean WAY east. And your ideas are worth a lot, you often times give very good and accuarate info, no more or less so than pro mets.rb924119 wrote:
If you kicked yours out to the east once it reaches southern NJ, and give me a tolerance of +/- 75 miles either side, you have my vote. What you have is darn near identical to how I think this ultimately plays out (for what little it's worth lol).
It's tough to draw on mobile, but as *ROUGH ESTIMATE*, my approximate thinking is in green. Please note I think it will only achieve a latitude of about Cape May before kicking east, but to try to get that accurate with my fat fingers on a small screen is a fool's errand aha also, once it landfalls, it CREEPS northward before accelerating back out over the open water as it runs beacon into the block.
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