Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

[SoulSingMG]

It’s a week out but the pattern supports something like it. Let’s all say it together: “GODZILLA.”

[frank 638]

Goldberg has mentioned we could be true we could be tracking a snow storm for next weekend

[mwilli5783]

see...i knew that word "godzilla"will start my attention span goin..ill be on here all next week

[amugs]

The synoptic pattern right now supports a snowstorm, let's leave it at that. The EURO and FV3 at 500mb support this, MECS possibly but we have a long ways to go. Still awaiting to see about the 5th. Looking strung out at this time and may slide south but still a good 36 hours till this.

[nutleyblizzard]

Models hinting at a big ticket event next weekend. The EURO last night went south and crushes DC, while the 6z GFS comes north and buries southern Jersey. Interesting week of tracking ahead folks.

[skinsfan1177]

One thing for the next weekend storm is how far north does it come. Suppression is also on the table as well as the cold air press is important.

[rb924119]

One thing for the next weekend storm is how far north does it come. Suppression is also on the table as well as the cold air press is important.

Sorry I haven’t been posting on here much recently, but I’ve had issues trying to log in from mobile (which has become my primary method for posting in recent weeks because I’ve been so busy). That said, now that I have finally achieved success, I can offer some opinion. Skins, I think suppression is a very real threat here, and believe that this will end up as a central/southern Mid-Atlantic storm, largely missing the majority of our board with big snows.  I can certainly see how we end up getting bullseyed here as well, as all it takes is a simple miscalculation of the factors that I’m looking at and how they interfere (whether constructively or destructively, and to what degree), but in my estimation of the synoptic pattern across the Northern Hemisphere as well taking into account tropical mode forecasts and observations, as well more local factors such as land and ocean feedbacks, I do not believe that there will be enough resistance to the cold press initiated by the synoptic alignment of the Northern Hemisphere. Yes, we will have resistance offered by the MJO and Niño 1.2 region trend of recent weeks, as well as more local SST anomalies around the CONUS, but we will also have every available Northern Hemispheric teleconnection working constructively to allow the cold/northern stream to really press. Taking the highly anomalous Canadian snow/cold feedback into account, which has already demonstrated its prowess multiple times this season, the northern stream will REALLY press and outweigh the resistance from the tropics and coastal water anomalies. That said, there will likely be enough resistance such that it’s likely to be a near miss (in my opinion) and hit the areas just to our south instead of whiffing completely.

All of this said, I also believe that we will see a true phase with the northern and southern stream energies, and do not buy for one second a slower/less potent northern stream. Based on the above, that energy is likely to come crashing full bore into the CONUS with substantial amplitude and really juice this system up, especially when the southern stream will be drawing moisture from the Gulf and Atlantic. Plentiful moisture and nice phasing leads to awesome synoptic storms. The northward progression of the developing/strengthening system, however, I strongly believe will be limited this time, unfortunately. Now that I’m back online, though, I’ll be able to adjust my thinking more fluidly for you all

[rb924119]

Also, please note that the above does not take ANY operational runs into account; purely intuition, subjective analysis, and ensemble-based, and I think putting stock into any operational runs during the next four days is a fool’s errand. Too many moving parts THAT HAVE NOT BEEN PROPERLY INITIALIZED to lend any belief in one operational outcome or another.

[Guest]

One thing for the next weekend storm is how far north does it come. Suppression is also on the table as well as the cold air press is important.

Sorry I haven’t been posting on here much recently, but I’ve had issues trying to log in from mobile (which has become my primary method for posting in recent weeks because I’ve been so busy). That said, now that I have finally achieved success, I can offer some opinion. Skins, I think suppression is a very real threat here, and believe that this will end up as a central/southern Mid-Atlantic storm, largely missing the majority of our board with big snows.  I can certainly see how we end up getting bullseyed here as well, as all it takes is a simple miscalculation of the factors that I’m looking at and how they interfere (whether constructively or destructively, and to what degree), but in my estimation of the synoptic pattern across the Northern Hemisphere as well taking into account tropical mode forecasts and observations, as well more local factors such as land and ocean feedbacks, I do not believe that there will be enough resistance to the cold press initiated by the synoptic alignment of the Northern Hemisphere. Yes, we will have resistance offered by the MJO and Niño 1.2 region trend of recent weeks, as well as more local SST anomalies around the CONUS, but we will also have every available Northern Hemispheric teleconnection working constructively to allow the cold/northern stream to really press. Taking the highly anomalous Canadian snow/cold feedback into account, which has already demonstrated its prowess multiple times this season, the northern stream will REALLY press and outweigh the resistance from the tropics and coastal water anomalies. That said, there will likely be enough resistance such that it’s likely to be a near miss (in my opinion) and hit the areas just to our south instead of whiffing completely.

All of this said, I also believe that we will see a true phase with the northern and southern stream energies, and do not buy for one second a slower/less potent northern stream. Based on the above, that energy is likely to come crashing full bore into the CONUS with substantial amplitude and really juice this system up, especially when the southern stream will be drawing moisture from the Gulf and Atlantic. Plentiful moisture and nice phasing leads to awesome synoptic storms. The northward progression of the developing/strengthening system, however, I strongly believe will be limited this time, unfortunately. Now that I’m back online, though, I’ll be able to adjust my thinking more fluidly for you all

I love ya Rob but I hope you do as well with this prediction as you did with the November 16th one. Because if you do we will jackpot

[skinsfan1177]

The problem right now is the system is not phasing the northern city and southern vort.

[rb924119]

Thanks for that, syo lmaoooo if I do as well with this one as I did with that one, I am going to have think long and hard about what my role in this world really is ahahaha

[rb924119]

The problem right now is the system is not phasing the northern city and southern vort.

This should resolve itself in due time, as I see no reason why there won’t be an interaction.

[rb924119]

After some brief high-level analysis, I think I’m about ready to abandon my fears of suppression for this system, and actually think it very well may end up as an I-95 and points northwest system. The initial pattern that was projected for the period in question is less impressive than it was from several days ago with respect to the cold press. Again, this is only based on some brief analysis, but I can actually see this system “slingshotting” back north in coming days (mainly with respect to the latest Euro Ensemble suite which came in excessively far south, such that mixing is introduced to the coastal plain (a fear not even given creedeance by myself initially). I am not ready to go with this officially yet, though, until I can sit down and look at things more closely on my computer (potentially later today if I’m awake enough (will have been awake since 12:30pm yesterday, so I’ll be pretty tired aha)). However, I did want to acknowledge that my ideas may be changing in light of my previous posts about suppression. Carry on

[nutleyblizzard]

EURO snow map from last night.

[docstox12]

EURO snow map from last night.

That map is like showing the Cross to Dracula for us NW area people! INFAMY!!!!!!

[skinsfan1177]

EPS mean looks suppressed but im not to worried at this time. Memory always tells me these come more north. And one thing to note we have time

[skinsfan1177]

Also one thing to watch and look for is the northern forts and if models start picking them up and see if we can get a phase

[amugs]

Folks,
Morning ya'll.
Typical model over correctness starting as we enter the mid range here with about 6 days to go.
The northern bort is in no man's land at this time.
The forecasted PNA spike is evolving.
The forecasted N EPO is shaping up nicely ad the cold air arrives Tuesday.
Isotherm is on this train and we must have patonce and just trust the pattern and not have weenie suicide.
For the love of God is the 1st week of Dec and we could have a major snow storm, the last time ????? 2010?? 
So m, let's enjoy the rain, finish our Xmas decorating inside, and not pay attention to the OP runs.

Btw, warm up from about the 12th to about the 17th is evolving in the LR and then the pattern reloads. Models showing a very perturbed SPV and TPV happening mid December that would affect lateer Dec through early January.
I'll try to post maps when I get home

[skinsfan1177]

Also I like to add that models have been hinting at a clipper type system end of week which would bring in fresh cold air source

[Guest]

EURO snow map from last night.

That map is like showing the Cross to Dracula for us NW area people! INFAMY!!!!!!

Doc fear not. I’m actually very upset that the bullseye is IMBY 7 days out.

[skinsfan1177]

EURO snow map from last night.

That map is like showing the Cross to Dracula for us NW area people! INFAMY!!!!!!

Doc fear not. I’m actually very upset that the bullseye is IMBY 7 days out.

I would not bother yet with snow maps this is a tricky set up imho

[docstox12]

EURO snow map from last night.

That map is like showing the Cross to Dracula for us NW area people! INFAMY!!!!!!

Doc fear not. I’m actually very upset that the bullseye is IMBY 7 days out.

LOL, Jimmy this is the fun , the models dancing all over.Way too early at this juncture anyway.

[Guest]

EURO snow map from last night.

That map is like showing the Cross to Dracula for us NW area people! INFAMY!!!!!!

Doc fear not. I’m actually very upset that the bullseye is IMBY 7 days out.

LOL, Jimmy this is the fun , the models dancing all over.Way too early at this juncture anyway.

I know. Being in the bullseye is bad. Things can only change for the worse

[hyde345]

North and West folks will get screwed on this one. Book it.

[jmanley32]

I am actually (sorry to all who want this) rooting for nothing or little on I-95 from sat till sunday night, anytime before or after that game on, but I am not letting a snowstorm hinder my weekend plans, way too important, the wife and I get but one or two chances a year to get a overnight sitter. I am hoping this is mainly on the latter part of 9th and into 10th, 10th be great no school : )

[Guest]

I am actually (sorry to all who want this) rooting for nothing or little on I-95 from sat till sunday night, anytime before or after that game on, but I am not letting a snowstorm hinder my weekend plans, way too important, the wife and I get but one or two chances a year to get a overnight sitter.  I am hoping this is mainly on the latter part of 9th and into 10th, 10th be great no school : )

Every time there is snow forecast or snow actually falling you complain. Either about driving or being in a snow hole or about someone getting more or about the urban heat island. Just move to Mt Washington where there’s 60 mph winds every day

[jmanley32]

I am actually (sorry to all who want this) rooting for nothing or little on I-95 from sat till sunday night, anytime before or after that game on, but I am not letting a snowstorm hinder my weekend plans, way too important, the wife and I get but one or two chances a year to get a overnight sitter.  I am hoping this is mainly on the latter part of 9th and into 10th, 10th be great no school : )

Every time there is snow forecast or snow actually falling you complain. Either about driving or being in a snow hole or about someone getting more or about the urban heat island. Just move to Mt Washington where there’s 60 mph winds every day

No not true did you see me complain on the 15th LOL, that was awesome, my resolution for this year was to not get upset when I get stuck with squat but this particular event could not fall on a worse date.  And it is about the travel, if we are getting 6-12 as Euro shows that not exactly something I should be driving 120 miles in don't ya think? Always best to stay off the roads.  On the contrary I do want to see a snowstorm for sure but its just a connundrum that either way I lose, storm its go be a pain getting there, no storm I do not get a storm LOL.  The lives we live. And no I do not want to live on Mt. Washington, those winds would get annoying quick, the whole ex citement of it for me is its uncommon, if it was everyday and as cold as it is up there I would hate it.

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