Re: The PLAY PEN-- Banter Thread 4.0

[GreyBeard]

Muskox, sorry but you lost me on this one. You posted the same mjo forecast in the long range thread page 28, second post down. You did follow it up with the current one though.

[frank 638]

Why does the national weather service has me for Sunday rain going over to freezing rain or freezing drizzle with a high of 55* for the day and the low of 36 * at night ???

[Math23x7]

This has the impending snowstorm written all over it as per todays MJO forecast by NCEP!! MADONNEEEEE watch out!! LOL!

The mjo forecast you posted is dated may-june 2018

GreyBeard, since you are suspect, here is the MJO projection from both the GFS ensemble and the ECMWF ensemble.

GEFS:



EPS:



The next 15 days, it has the MJO in Phases 8-1-2-3, which is what we want to see for cold/snow at this time of the year in our neck of the woods.  Let's see if other features cooperate.  The -PNA is set to back off by next week.  March could get interesting.  If we can just get everything else to cooperate....

[GreyBeard]

Thank you Math, that makes a lot more sense. I didn't see where an mjo forecast from last May would have anything to do with an impending snowstorm.

[weatherwatchermom]

1st time in 60 YEARS Los Angeles had snow...really... Flagstaff got 3 feet yesterday..

[GreyBeard]

I thought Flagstaff was in Arizona? j/k. Some places in the Rockies are measuring snow in feet like we do in inches. They also had snow in Las Vegas too. Back in the fall the forecast was just the opposite,we were supposed to be above average,and out west was supposed to be below for snowfall. We all know how that turned out.

[weatherwatchermom]

I thought Flagstaff was in Arizona? j/k. Some places in the Rockies are measuring snow in feet like we do in inches. They also had snow in Las Vegas too. Back in the fall the forecast was just the opposite,we were supposed to be above average,and out west was supposed to be below for snowfall. We all know how that turned out.

ha ha...did not use my punctuation correctly, they are two separate statements...sometimes grammar rusty..but still know my geography...I guess I do need grammerly..lol!

[RJB8525]

All my snow is melted pretty much now... Well, I should say my little snow, and sleet and freezing rain is melted... What a horrible way to spend my birthday. I broke my snow blower, but it will be an easy fix once the parts come in at least.

late to the party but Happy Birthday

[mikeypizano]

All my snow is melted pretty much now... Well, I should say my little snow, and sleet and freezing rain is melted... What a horrible way to spend my birthday. I broke my snow blower, but it will be an easy fix once the parts come in at least.

late to the party but Happy Birthday

Thank you!

[Dunnzoo]

So I made it to San Antonio, shaken, not stirred! the flight path took us along that line of storms that ran from eastern TX to Kentucky and east... bumpy ride is being kind. The pilot kept apologizing for the ride, kept trying different altitudes to find less turbulent air space, but, no luck. When we got off the flight, I asked him, "couldn't you just stay north of that storm line????" oy

[Math23x7]

January 24th, 1993

Do any of you older folks remember that date? You probably don't. It was an uneventful Sunday in NYC. A day with lows in the upper 30s and highs in the mid-50s and a brief period of light rain in the evening. Heck, I do not remember that day as I was just two and half years old at the time.

I bring this particular date up for a reason. By that point, NYC snow lovers had not experienced any big snow for quite a while up to that point. That Sunday capped off an entire weekend of temps at least 10 degrees above average. In fact much of that month ran well above average, including back-to-back days in the mid-60s earlier in the month. The 1992-93 seasonal snow total for CPK up to that point was 1.9." There was 0.4" the prior month, but that came on the 11th and was known much more for rain/coastal flooding and for snow for I-95. The other 1.5" came in January through a transient cold snap, after which temperatures shot back up to well above normal.

Extended forecasts for the rest of January show nothing more than flurries for the work week ahead with high temperatures mainly in the 40s.

In the broader sense, it has been nearly ten years since NYC had a 10"+ snowstorm. It hadn't had a 30"+ snow season since 1977-78. And the one before that one was 1968-69, meaning one big snowy winter in over 20 years. I'm sure there was that feeling that big snowstorms would never happen in our neck of the woods again.

Well, after January 1993, things changed quite a bit. Extended cold snaps hit in February with a couple of 3"+ snowstorms. Then the following month, the Super Storm took place, dumping snow to a large portion of the eastern US. While NYC did not get the ideal snow track, it did get 10.6" with sleet, while places just north and west saw much higher amounts. Then the following winter, 1993-94, NYC saw numerous cold snaps, ice storms, and snowstorms, totaling 53.7" in the seasonal snow total, the most since 1960-61. After a break the following winter, the 1995-96 winter had people lose their minds as every winter month produced. While the next few winters weren't all that eventful, the mid-2000's saw four consecutive 40"+ snow seasons. And the 2010s was quite something, surpassing the 1890s for the snowiest decade on record, which is currently at 356" of snow.

The big question could be if 2018-19 is the start of another long stretch similar to the one in the 1980s-early 1990s.

[docstox12]

So I made it to San Antonio, shaken, not stirred! the flight path took us along that line of storms that ran from eastern TX to Kentucky and east... bumpy ride is being kind. The pilot kept apologizing for the ride, kept trying different altitudes to find less turbulent air space, but, no luck. When we got off the flight, I asked him, "couldn't you just stay north of that storm line????" oy

LOL, ah the joys of modern day air travel.Looking forward to the day, which I won't see, of teleporting devices a la Star Trek that dissociate and then re assemble your molecules instantly in the place you want to go to.Sorry Janet for your bumpy ride.Don't think those pilots have much leeway on the continental routes , so many planes in the air at any given time.

[docstox12]

January 24th, 1993

Do any of you older folks remember that date?  You probably don't.  It was an uneventful Sunday in NYC.  A day with lows in the upper 30s and highs in the mid-50s and a brief period of light rain in the evening.  Heck, I do not remember that day as I was just two and half years old at the time.

I bring this particular date up for a reason.  By that point, NYC snow lovers had not experienced any big snow for quite a while up to that point.  That Sunday capped off an entire weekend of temps at least 10 degrees above average.  In fact much of that month ran well above average, including back-to-back days in the mid-60s earlier in the month.  The 1992-93 seasonal snow total for CPK up to that point was 1.9."  There was 0.4" the prior month, but that came on the 11th and was known much more for rain/coastal flooding and for snow for I-95.  The other 1.5" came in January through a transient cold snap, after which temperatures shot back up to well above normal.  

Extended forecasts for the rest of January show nothing more than flurries for the work week ahead with high temperatures mainly in the 40s.

In the broader sense, it has been nearly ten years since NYC had a 10"+ snowstorm.  It hadn't had a 30"+ snow season since 1977-78.  And the one before that one was 1968-69, meaning one big snowy winter in over 20 years.  I'm sure there was that feeling that big snowstorms would never happen in our neck of the woods again.

Well, after January 1993, things changed quite a bit. Extended cold snaps hit in February with a couple of 3"+ snowstorms.  Then the following month, the Super Storm took place, dumping snow to a large portion of the eastern US.  While NYC did not get the ideal snow track, it did get 10.6" with sleet, while places just north and west saw much higher amounts.  Then the following winter, 1993-94, NYC saw numerous cold snaps, ice storms, and snowstorms, totaling 53.7" in the seasonal snow total, the most since 1960-61.  After a break the following winter, the 1995-96 winter had people lose their minds as every winter month produced.  While the next few winters weren't all that eventful, the mid-2000's saw four consecutive 40"+ snow seasons.  And the 2010s was quite something, surpassing the 1890s for the snowiest decade on record, which is currently at 356" of snow.

The big question could be if 2018-19 is the start of another long stretch similar to the one in the 1980s-early 1990s.

Math, wonderful trip down memory lane for me.You are spot on in describing the snowless periods as I lived through them all starting observing in 1960.I thought the 1960's, with the Dec, Jan, Feb 1960, Jan 1964, Feb 1967 and Feb 1969 would be the last snowy period I would ever see around here but that February 1993 snowstorm changed the dynamics completely.As much as we all complain about this snowless winter, we have been truly blessed since that Feb 1993 snowstorm.

[mikeypizano]

So I made it to San Antonio, shaken, not stirred! the flight path took us along that line of storms that ran from eastern TX to Kentucky and east... bumpy ride is being kind. The pilot kept apologizing for the ride, kept trying different altitudes to find less turbulent air space, but, no luck. When we got off the flight, I asked him, "couldn't you just stay north of that storm line????" oy

LOL, ah the joys of modern day air travel.Looking forward to the day, which I won't see, of teleporting devices a la Star Trek that dissociate and then re assemble your molecules instantly in the place you want to go to.Sorry Janet for your bumpy ride.Don't think those pilots have much leeway on the continental routes , so many planes in the air at any given time.

I know that most of the planes that go over my house are going to JFK. They usually have a set path they go.

[docstox12]

So I made it to San Antonio, shaken, not stirred! the flight path took us along that line of storms that ran from eastern TX to Kentucky and east... bumpy ride is being kind. The pilot kept apologizing for the ride, kept trying different altitudes to find less turbulent air space, but, no luck. When we got off the flight, I asked him, "couldn't you just stay north of that storm line????" oy

LOL, ah the joys of modern day air travel.Looking forward to the day, which I won't see, of teleporting devices a la Star Trek that dissociate and then re assemble your molecules instantly in the place you want to go to.Sorry Janet for your bumpy ride.Don't think those pilots have much leeway on the continental routes , so many planes in the air at any given time.

I know that most of the planes that go over my house are going to JFK. They usually have a set path they go.

For Christmas 1961, my Dad got me a great pair of binoculars that I put to use in the summer of 1962 plane watching in Fort Lee NJ.My parents house was in the flight path of Idlewild Airport( before it was JFK) and La Guardia. Back then, half the planes were still prop jobs and i would see the props spinning like crazy with the binocs.Jets had just come out in 1958.Newark airport back then was just a backwater airport.The Air Force had a bunch of P 38 fighters stored there, the ones with the double tails.Once, my Dad and I were throwing the ball around in 1961 when 25 of those P 38's came flying over the house.Must have been a traing flight.Let me tell you, the ground shook and you felt the vibrations all through you.Must have been amazing when those 1000 bomber B 17 and B 25 raids over Germany went over during WW II.LOL,I'm rambling on, Glory Days from an old man.

[Grselig]

Its not fair. Jman gets his wind and I can't get my snow!!!! And I was gonna play some tennis Monday.

[GreyBeard]

Mikey P., check out this drone.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-kalashnikov-assault-rifle-changed-the-world-now-theres-a-kalashnikov-kamikaze-drone/ar-BBTYq9I?li=BBnbcA1&ocid=SK2HDHP

[mikeypizano]

I like my toys to NOT explode...

[heehaw453]

January 24th, 1993

Do any of you older folks remember that date?  You probably don't.  It was an uneventful Sunday in NYC.  A day with lows in the upper 30s and highs in the mid-50s and a brief period of light rain in the evening.  Heck, I do not remember that day as I was just two and half years old at the time.

I bring this particular date up for a reason.  By that point, NYC snow lovers had not experienced any big snow for quite a while up to that point.  That Sunday capped off an entire weekend of temps at least 10 degrees above average.  In fact much of that month ran well above average, including back-to-back days in the mid-60s earlier in the month.  The 1992-93 seasonal snow total for CPK up to that point was 1.9."  There was 0.4" the prior month, but that came on the 11th and was known much more for rain/coastal flooding and for snow for I-95.  The other 1.5" came in January through a transient cold snap, after which temperatures shot back up to well above normal.  

Extended forecasts for the rest of January show nothing more than flurries for the work week ahead with high temperatures mainly in the 40s.

In the broader sense, it has been nearly ten years since NYC had a 10"+ snowstorm.  It hadn't had a 30"+ snow season since 1977-78.  And the one before that one was 1968-69, meaning one big snowy winter in over 20 years.  I'm sure there was that feeling that big snowstorms would never happen in our neck of the woods again.

Well, after January 1993, things changed quite a bit. Extended cold snaps hit in February with a couple of 3"+ snowstorms.  Then the following month, the Super Storm took place, dumping snow to a large portion of the eastern US.  While NYC did not get the ideal snow track, it did get 10.6" with sleet, while places just north and west saw much higher amounts.  Then the following winter, 1993-94, NYC saw numerous cold snaps, ice storms, and snowstorms, totaling 53.7" in the seasonal snow total, the most since 1960-61.  After a break the following winter, the 1995-96 winter had people lose their minds as every winter month produced.  While the next few winters weren't all that eventful, the mid-2000's saw four consecutive 40"+ snow seasons.  And the 2010s was quite something, surpassing the 1890s for the snowiest decade on record, which is currently at 356" of snow.

The big question could be if 2018-19 is the start of another long stretch similar to the one in the 1980s-early 1990s.

This is a great write up showing how bad winters can be on the coastal plain. It’s ver easy to forget that due to recent good fortune. Where it goes from here who knows.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

January 24th, 1993

Do any of you older folks remember that date?  You probably don't.  It was an uneventful Sunday in NYC.  A day with lows in the upper 30s and highs in the mid-50s and a brief period of light rain in the evening.  Heck, I do not remember that day as I was just two and half years old at the time.

I bring this particular date up for a reason.  By that point, NYC snow lovers had not experienced any big snow for quite a while up to that point.  That Sunday capped off an entire weekend of temps at least 10 degrees above average.  In fact much of that month ran well above average, including back-to-back days in the mid-60s earlier in the month.  The 1992-93 seasonal snow total for CPK up to that point was 1.9."  There was 0.4" the prior month, but that came on the 11th and was known much more for rain/coastal flooding and for snow for I-95.  The other 1.5" came in January through a transient cold snap, after which temperatures shot back up to well above normal.  

Extended forecasts for the rest of January show nothing more than flurries for the work week ahead with high temperatures mainly in the 40s.

In the broader sense, it has been nearly ten years since NYC had a 10"+ snowstorm.  It hadn't had a 30"+ snow season since 1977-78.  And the one before that one was 1968-69, meaning one big snowy winter in over 20 years.  I'm sure there was that feeling that big snowstorms would never happen in our neck of the woods again.

Well, after January 1993, things changed quite a bit. Extended cold snaps hit in February with a couple of 3"+ snowstorms.  Then the following month, the Super Storm took place, dumping snow to a large portion of the eastern US.  While NYC did not get the ideal snow track, it did get 10.6" with sleet, while places just north and west saw much higher amounts.  Then the following winter, 1993-94, NYC saw numerous cold snaps, ice storms, and snowstorms, totaling 53.7" in the seasonal snow total, the most since 1960-61.  After a break the following winter, the 1995-96 winter had people lose their minds as every winter month produced.  While the next few winters weren't all that eventful, the mid-2000's saw four consecutive 40"+ snow seasons.  And the 2010s was quite something, surpassing the 1890s for the snowiest decade on record, which is currently at 356" of snow.

The big question could be if 2018-19 is the start of another long stretch similar to the one in the 1980s-early 1990s.

This is a great write up showing how bad winters can be on the coastal plain. It’s ver easy to forget that due to recent good fortune. Where it goes from here who knows.

The problem with this is everyone forgets how historically bad most of the 1970's 1980's and 1990's was for snowfall. That wasn't the norm either. It's like the last 15 years are just trying to make up for how historically bad that period was.

The 150 year snowfall average in NYC is 28.8 inches per season, the new 30 year averages calculated in 2021 will be about 30 inches give or take an inch, pretty much in line with the historical averages.

Where it did skew results was for the 1971-2000 and the current 1981-2010 averages which were 22.2 and 25.8 respectively. These last 20 years the 30 year averages were historically on the very low side. As I stated earlier the upcoming 30 year average 1991-2020 will be in line with the 150 year average.

[heehaw453]

January 24th, 1993

Do any of you older folks remember that date?  You probably don't.  It was an uneventful Sunday in NYC.  A day with lows in the upper 30s and highs in the mid-50s and a brief period of light rain in the evening.  Heck, I do not remember that day as I was just two and half years old at the time.

I bring this particular date up for a reason.  By that point, NYC snow lovers had not experienced any big snow for quite a while up to that point.  That Sunday capped off an entire weekend of temps at least 10 degrees above average.  In fact much of that month ran well above average, including back-to-back days in the mid-60s earlier in the month.  The 1992-93 seasonal snow total for CPK up to that point was 1.9."  There was 0.4" the prior month, but that came on the 11th and was known much more for rain/coastal flooding and for snow for I-95.  The other 1.5" came in January through a transient cold snap, after which temperatures shot back up to well above normal.  

Extended forecasts for the rest of January show nothing more than flurries for the work week ahead with high temperatures mainly in the 40s.

In the broader sense, it has been nearly ten years since NYC had a 10"+ snowstorm.  It hadn't had a 30"+ snow season since 1977-78.  And the one before that one was 1968-69, meaning one big snowy winter in over 20 years.  I'm sure there was that feeling that big snowstorms would never happen in our neck of the woods again.

Well, after January 1993, things changed quite a bit. Extended cold snaps hit in February with a couple of 3"+ snowstorms.  Then the following month, the Super Storm took place, dumping snow to a large portion of the eastern US.  While NYC did not get the ideal snow track, it did get 10.6" with sleet, while places just north and west saw much higher amounts.  Then the following winter, 1993-94, NYC saw numerous cold snaps, ice storms, and snowstorms, totaling 53.7" in the seasonal snow total, the most since 1960-61.  After a break the following winter, the 1995-96 winter had people lose their minds as every winter month produced.  While the next few winters weren't all that eventful, the mid-2000's saw four consecutive 40"+ snow seasons.  And the 2010s was quite something, surpassing the 1890s for the snowiest decade on record, which is currently at 356" of snow.

The big question could be if 2018-19 is the start of another long stretch similar to the one in the 1980s-early 1990s.

This is a great write up showing how bad winters can be on the coastal plain. It’s ver easy to forget that due to recent good fortune. Where it goes from here who knows.

The problem with this is everyone forgets how historically bad most of the 1970's 1980's and 1990's was for snowfall. That wasn't the norm either. It's like the last 15 years are just trying to make up for how historically bad that period was.

The 150 year snowfall average in NYC is 28.8 inches per season, the new 30 year averages calculated in 2021 will be about 30 inches give or take an inch, pretty much in line with the historical averages.

Where it did skew results was for the 1971-2000 and the current 1981-2010 averages which were 22.2 and 25.8 respectively. These last 20 years the 30 year averages were historically on the very low side. As I stated earlier the upcoming 30 year average 1991-2020 will be in line with the 150 year average.

I agree over the longer term yes that bad period was anomalous, but it was such long duration that it's hard not to get a bit jaded from it and fear its return.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I for one am shocked that Syos has stayed away this long.

I figured he would be back within a week. When he deleted his account I thought maybe two weeks.

[docstox12]

I for one am shocked that Syos has stayed away this long.

I figured he would be back within a week. When he deleted his account I thought maybe two weeks.

LOL! Brings to mind a story my Mom told me about my old neighborhood in Washington Heights in 1951.There was a guy that worked in the New York Dept. of Sanitation that cleaned the streets using one of those garbage cans on wheels.The old timers here would remember those.Anyway, when thr NY Giants and Dodgers were going to have the one game playoff, this guy, a diehard Dodger Fan, was riding all the Giant Fans about how they were going to lose.When the Dodgers lost, this guy never showed his face agian, he transferred.Now that LI is no longer the "snow capital of the USA" and the Hudson Valley reigns supreme, poor Syos has had a meltdown.I expect him back CP, when LI has another Juno where we get 5 inches and he gets 30,LMAO.

[heehaw453]

Memories are the only thing getting me through this farce of a winter...

[sroc4]

It could happen Al

[weatherwatchermom]

It could happen Al

oh boy I am having flash backs to candid camera...is the camera on my computer is spying on me to get my reaction?????????

is that model on crack?

[sroc4]

I just don't get it, my area is showing less than an inch for sunday's event and mostly rain.

Sroc, can you explain to me where i'm whining? I asked a question, gave clarification to my location and then said i wouldn't sign based on projections on the map for my area.

Look forward to your response...

Hey Irish. Im sorry your right. It really isn't whining. But you asked the same question tonight that you did this afternoon. I attempted to answer it this afternoon shortly after you asked the last time.(see below) Models have cont to trend slowly towards a colder soln. Does that mean your getting any more than rain?? No, but the threat is there for more than that esp if the trends continue through tomorrow. With you and Jman making comments like "I just don't see it" or "no models show this or that" (that may not have been you specifically), esp when that isn't true it belongs in this thread. These convos clog up the incoming models and discussion about the modesl. Again read the bolded statements below. Yesterday Lee Goldberg had LI in a c-1". He now has LI in the 1-3". I apologize for coming off a bit short. Its been a long work week.

GFS is an absolute crusher on Sunday night for most people on this forum.

If this threat exists why am I not seeing anything but showers or mixing with almost no accumulation expected on weather.com for my area?

Depends on what model that site wishes to use to derive a forecast for a specific area. Not every model shows what GFS shows. This model has your area in the rain.


Dont get caught up in your point and click forecasts, and dont get caught up in the pretty colors on any one specific map. Trust me when I tell you the threat very much exists; even for you. That said odds are your specific location is more than likely going to be rain eventually even if there is a little front end snow.

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