The PLAY PEN-- Banter Thread 4.0

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Post by Irish on Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:56 pm

Gotcha, all good, thx Sroc.

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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:10 am

Scott I never said the storm is not going to happen or anything neative about the actual storm. I meerly stated I wish it was going to snow longer into monday morning to ensure schol closure as I am a teacher in a private school and want a 3 day weekend, I never once doubted this system, I had a hunch we would see all 3 in some capacity. Calling me out on here for something I did not say...this time anyways (LOL cuz I sure have had my whining moments but I do not feel that was one)., wasn't exactly right.
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Post by sroc4 on Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:31 am

jmanley32 wrote:Scott I never said the storm is not going to happen or anything neative about the actual storm. I meerly stated I wish it was going to snow longer into monday morning to ensure schol closure as I am a teacher in a private school and want a 3 day weekend, I never once doubted this system, I had a hunch we would see all 3 in some capacity. Calling me out on here for something I did not say...this time anyways (LOL cuz I sure have had my whining moments but I do not feel that was one)., wasn't exactly right.

Good morning Jon. I owe you an apology as well. Your right it wasn't whining. There was however certain comments that probably belonged in , but I think because of the stressful work week and perhaps more so prev events in this board and the fear of clogging up the actual analysis maps, and discussion about the model trends etc, I likely over reacted to some of yours and Irish's comments. Again my apologies. BTW check your PM

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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Mar 02, 2019 8:12 am

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Scott I never said the storm is not going to happen or anything neative about the actual storm. I meerly stated I wish it was going to snow longer into monday morning to ensure schol closure as I am a teacher in a private school and want a 3 day weekend, I never once doubted this system, I had a hunch we would see all 3 in some capacity. Calling me out on here for something I did not say...this time anyways (LOL cuz I sure have had my whining moments but I do not feel that was one)., wasn't exactly right.

Good morning Jon.  I owe you an apology as well.  Your right it wasn't whining.  There was however certain comments that probably belonged in , but I think because of the stressful work week and perhaps more so prev events in this board and the fear of clogging up the actual analysis maps, and discussion about the model trends etc, I likely over reacted to some of yours and Irish's comments.  Again my apologies.  BTW check your PM
no biggie and I hear ya on the stressful work week ugh.
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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:05 pm

This just doesnt look good to me nor do I feel it will be a big deal, maybe about the same as today which was no big deal at all. I was really hoping it would be a big storm and if we can pull off 6 inches or more I will consider it a big storm but still do not think it will effect morning commute at all due to how quickly it gets out. All us teachers should plan to be at work bright and busieyed Monday. I am glad its starting not too late so I can at least see some of it, I need my precious sleep these days.
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Post by Irish on Sat Mar 02, 2019 10:59 pm

Don't lose hope jman!! Let's start with a believable delayed opening and move right on up to a closing.

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Post by Artechmetals on Sun Mar 03, 2019 7:22 pm

Jman getting back to SOE why doesn’t equal School closed ? Something don’t make sense . All I know if roads are bad my kids are staying home .
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Post by GreyBeard on Sun Mar 03, 2019 7:28 pm

Probably different criteria between NY and NJ I would imagine. I don't think Ny is under SOE.

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Post by Smarnold on Sun Mar 03, 2019 7:49 pm

SOE doesn't mean schools close. If there was a state wide travel ban then that would be different. My Husband works for the state and he has a delay for tomorrow but not closed.

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Post by Artechmetals on Sun Mar 03, 2019 8:02 pm

Smarnold wrote:SOE doesn't mean schools close.  If there was a state wide travel ban then that would be different.  My Husband works for the state and he has a delay for tomorrow but not closed.
So ok let me ask during a SOE if I decided to keep kids home from school because roads are bad can school still count as an absence even though it’s SOE
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Post by GreyBeard on Sun Mar 03, 2019 8:02 pm

Smarnold wrote:SOE doesn't mean schools close.  If there was a state wide travel ban then that would be different.  My Husband works for the state and he has a delay for tomorrow but not closed.

Smarnold,Check the other thread about sun-mon storm page 13.Apparently a lot of misinformation on this topic.

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Post by Smarnold on Sun Mar 03, 2019 8:07 pm

Artechmetals wrote:
Smarnold wrote:SOE doesn't mean schools close.  If there was a state wide travel ban then that would be different.  My Husband works for the state and he has a delay for tomorrow but not closed.
So ok let me ask during a SOE if I decided to keep kids home from school because roads are bad can school still count as an absence even though it’s SOE

Not 100% sure but I believe so.

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Post by billg315 on Sun Mar 03, 2019 8:11 pm

SOE has to do with accessing federal emergency funds to reimburse the state for expenses during a storm. It also allows the Governor to take additional steps, such as travel bans and evacuation orders. In and of itself it has no impact on school closures. But if he implemented a travel ban or directly ordered schools closed, that would.
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Post by kalleg on Sun Mar 03, 2019 8:31 pm

billg315 wrote:SOE has to do with accessing federal emergency funds to reimburse the state for expenses during a storm. It also allows the Governor to take additional steps, such as travel bans and evacuatiGovernor Murphy Declares State of Emergency In and of itself it has no impact on school closures. But if he implemented a travel ban or directly ordered schools closed, that would.

Here's the text of the declaration--nothing about schools closing; elsewhere there was info that some offices would have a late opening...

03/3/2019
TRENTON – Today, Governor Phil Murphy declared that New Jersey will enter a state of emergency beginning Sunday, March 3, 2019, at 3:00 p.m. ahead of the expected winter storm. The storm is anticipated to start tonight and continue throughout Monday morning. Executive Order No. 59 declares a state of emergency across all 21 counties in New Jersey, allowing resources to be deployed throughout the state during the duration of the storm.

“New Jersey will be expecting another winter storm today and tomorrow," said Governor Murphy. “The safety of our residents is our top priority, and we urge everyone to be informed of weather conditions and to stay off the roads so that we are able to deploy available resources to clean the snow.”

New Jersey is expected to experience several inches of snow. To prepare for the winter storm, the New Jersey State Police will activate the State Emergency Operations Center on Sunday, March 3, 2019, at 3:00 p.m. in order to monitor the storm. The New Jersey Department of Transportation will also deploy more than 2,500 plows and spreaders to keep roads and communities safe.

The Governor encourages New Jerseyans to visit ready.nj.gov for important weather updates and safety information. New Jersey residents should also pay attention to local forecasts, warnings, and watches.

For those living in Central and Southern New Jersey, visit the U.S. National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mount Holly at http://www.weather.gov/phi/

For those living in Northern New Jersey and the New York Metro area, visit the U.S. National Weather Service New York, N.Y. at http://www.weather.gov/okx/on orders.

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Post by Dunnzoo on Sun Mar 03, 2019 8:33 pm

Close call for Ryan in Tallahasee, tornado lifted just before downtown and reformed just east of him!

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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Mar 03, 2019 10:29 pm

Sorry but this looks like yet another yonkers snow hole, It doesnt appear to me that those returns will make it up here, reporting to work at 10:30am, congrats to those with more than 1/4 slushy inch. I hope I am wrong but this is moving fast and back end is in eastern PA already not much longer to go, def not go see anywhere near 6 inches IMO hasnt accumulated at all for past several hours, we will see. I am ready for spring, and add insult to injury it WILL be cold enough next couple of days.
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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Mar 03, 2019 10:30 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:Close call for Ryan in Tallahasee, tornado lifted just before downtown and reformed just east of him!
Wow thats crazy, yeah insane amount of tornado warnings down there.
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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Mar 03, 2019 10:34 pm

GreyBeard wrote:Probably different criteria between NY and NJ I would imagine. I don't think Ny is under SOE.
Of course not its a moderate snow storm not a apocalypse, NJ gov. is just odd. Now closing NYC schools that was also a crazy move, i mean there was a 3 foot storm years ago and they didnt close.
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Post by docstox12 on Mon Mar 04, 2019 2:55 am

jmanley32 wrote:
GreyBeard wrote:Probably different criteria between NY and NJ I would imagine. I don't think Ny is under SOE.
Of course not its a moderate snow storm not a apocalypse, NJ gov. is just odd.  Now closing NYC schools that was also a crazy move, i mean there was a 3 foot storm years ago and they didnt close.

LOL, your tax dollars at work!
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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Mar 04, 2019 10:53 am

HEY!! Guess whos at work!! Yonkers schools closed and white plains where both of our sites are but they decided to go half staff with no busses and the chance that parents will drive their kids in for 11:30-2:00, I am so pissed. Roads are fine and White plains got around double the amount of snow yonkers did, yonkers when I went out at 9 had maybe 3 inches, here looks about 6-8 at 10:30. Trees are pretty I will give it that. Not looking forward to more cold!
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Post by Math23x7 on Mon Mar 04, 2019 1:57 pm

It was recently announced that the upgrade in the GFS would be delayed due to the FV3-GFS overdoing the issues involving snow depth and lower atmosphere dynamics.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/02/26/noaa-delays-launch-next-generation-weather-forecast-model-names-new-acting-head/?utm_term=.b8b8874ad42b

Nevertheless, this hour 372 image of the 12Z FV3-GFS is weenietastic. It is very unlikely to happen (understatement), but it provides for great eye candy:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p®ion=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019030412&fh=372

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Post by SENJsnowman on Mon Mar 04, 2019 2:57 pm

In all honesty, the GFS-FV3 has been my therapist/best friend this winter. Not a storm has approached, NOT ONE STORM, that the FV3 didn't like as a Mothra or better at one point.

Comes a time when I need loyalty above all else...and the FV3 was in my corner all winter long, right when I needed her most. She wasn't right once. Never came that close. But like a goofy dog, when it's your goofy dog anyways, that just doesn't matter. A bond was forged...

#VivaLaFV3!

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Mon Mar 04, 2019 3:29 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:In all honesty, the GFS-FV3 has been my therapist/best friend this winter. Not a storm has approached, NOT ONE STORM, that the FV3 didn't like as a Mothra or better at one point.

Comes a time when I need loyalty above all else...and the FV3 was in my corner all winter long, right when I needed her most. She wasn't right once. Never came that close. But like a goofy dog, when it's your goofy dog anyways, that just doesn't matter. A bond was forged...

#VivaLaFV3!

LOL. great analogy.

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Post by sroc4 on Mon Mar 04, 2019 4:02 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:In all honesty, the GFS-FV3 has been my therapist/best friend this winter. Not a storm has approached, NOT ONE STORM, that the FV3 didn't like as a Mothra or better at one point.

Comes a time when I need loyalty above all else...and the FV3 was in my corner all winter long, right when I needed her most. She wasn't right once. Never came that close. But like a goofy dog, when it's your goofy dog anyways, that just doesn't matter. A bond was forged...

#VivaLaFV3!

This post argues for post of the winter in my book


lol! lol! lol!

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
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Post by HectorO on Mon Mar 04, 2019 10:34 pm

Ready for Spring already. Need to chill out on my deck in the warm weather while I listen to music and eat food.
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