Long Range Thread 18.0

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Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:44 pm

Let's get down to some business.

In the prior long range thread its been mentioned the pattern is showing signs of undergoing significant changes. While you have heard this already once before (regrettably from my "ferocious" New Year thread), and you may feel hesitation, I am feeling pretty confident this time around.

Here is a look at the 500mb pattern valid Thursdaythis week.



That huge area of red, or ridging, northeast of Alaska is the #1 reason why we have something to talk about for next weekend. I've already mentioned this feature in the prior thread. The -EPO ridge promotes higher heights (or warmer temps) across western Canada into the Arctic region. As this region of the world warms up, the eastern U.S. cools down because the Polar Vortex is forced out of the Arctic (-AO) and into Canada resulting in a trough over the eastern third of the U.S.

Advancing to Saturday evening next weekend...



The -EPO ridge remains and check out what's found over the Gulf coast. A trough. Within this trough is pieces of energy getting ready to develop a storm system that could potentially come up the coast. Look how there is red, or higher heights, along the east coast. This indicates the storm has a "path" to follow toward the Benchmark instead of trying to escape out to sea. The reason being the -EPO/+PNA allowing for storm systems to pivot northward instead of scooting away out to sea.

A closer look at next weekend's set-up can be seen on the 500mb vort graphs



On Saturday afternoon you can see the GFS is advertising a big +PNA spike (ridge) in the western U.S., with polar energy (northern stream energy) diving south into the trough found near the Gulf Coast. The trough at this juncture is positively tilted. Ideally we want to see a neutral trough tilting negative at this stage. What you will also notice is the upper air energy is strung out from the Gulf coast all the way up to the Ohio Valley. This looks like the makings of a fast moving cold front more than it does a big coastal storm. The thermal gradient in northern New England is impressive, and that will help to make sure there is cold air to work with.



As we move forward to Sunday night the ridge in the western U.S. collapses and the flow across the U.S. turns progressive. While a phase did occur and a coastal storm did form on the GFS, it traveled out to sea because of how poor the pattern is upstream near the Pacific. Atlantic blocking (-NAO) would help here, and there actually is signs of a weak to moderate -NAO, but it formed too late on this run verbatim.

Next weekend is by far our best threat of the winter to this point. But I actually do not want to hone in on just this threat, because the overall pattern beginning the week of 21st is look VERY conducive for a Godzilla-type storm. While next weekend's threat could produce a Godzilla, I prefer the pattern I am seeing beyond the 21st because the Pacific jet stream is shown to retract which gives space for the PNA ridge to form and actually stay there, instead of trying to roll forward which disrupts the entire flow downstream.

It is also going to get frigid. We're looking at temps in the 20's and teens during the day and near zero (or below N&W) at night. So, while we have something to track next weekend, I think we will have A LOT more to track beyond the 21st into February where the pattern will be ripe.





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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by frank 638 on Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:51 pm

Thank you Frank for the update we are ready to go it's time that we all get a good snow storm 4 the whole area

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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by adamfitz1969 on Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:58 pm


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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Jan 12, 2019 6:31 pm

Thanks for the update so in other words your not that enthused about a threat again but this one has a bit more promise? Seems par for the course Rb guess your not get your m word.
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by mwilli5783 on Sat Jan 12, 2019 8:43 pm

frank..thanks for the info keeping fingers crossed,on "the big one"

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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Jan 12, 2019 9:03 pm

adamfitz1969 wrote:
If that happens I will pull a scott and jump in the snow in my skivies lol (something done years ago before many of you).
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by weatherwatchermom on Sat Jan 12, 2019 9:37 pm

Thank you Frank! At least there are some opportunities on the horizon! Ps..cute pup!!
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Jan 12, 2019 9:40 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Thanks for the update so in other words your not that enthused about a threat again but this one has a bit more promise? Seems par for the course Rb guess your not get your m word.

I'm enthused about a complete pattern change from the 20th into February. I think the storm threat next weekend is our best one yet, but I'm not too enthused about it yet.

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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by rb924119 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 3:37 am

Frank, excellent discussion, and it will tie in beautifully with mine when I get it together. Just one question: CAN YOU USE THE “M” WORD NOW AFTER TONIGHTS RUNS?????? Lol

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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 4:24 am

Not su r e what looked so great about the runs tonight I know surface is misleading but they were all rainstorms except far interior and front like systems. Can't wait to read your write up cuz I'm not totally getting the e citement. Btw I read that map posted above is like the mother of end all ice storms most is not snow but many inches of ice yikes!
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by rb924119 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:29 am

jmanley32 wrote:Not su r e what looked so great about the runs tonight I know surface is misleading but they were all rainstorms except far interior and front like systems. Can't wait to read your write up cuz I'm not totally getting the e citement. Btw I read that map posted above is like the mother of end all ice storms most is not snow but many inches of ice yikes!

I’ll let somebody else post the maps lol

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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:48 am

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Not su r e what looked so great about the runs tonight I know surface is misleading but they were all rainstorms except far interior and front like systems. Can't wait to read your write up cuz I'm not totally getting the e citement. Btw I read that map posted above is like the mother of end all ice storms most is not snow but many inches of ice yikes!

I’ll let somebody else post the maps lol
I saw the maps, but it looks like unless you are from the central NY area north its rain, with the exception of the FV3 which has the worst ice storm I have ever seen, 30 some odd inches of sleet and frz....that cant happen right?

Okay didnt see the Euro, wow...It gets the warm layer very close or along the coast but the snow map still pumps out a godzilla for everyone from here to kingdom come, wide area huge impact on that run.
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:53 am

MOG even the euro says crushing ice storm, I really hope this isnt true, so in fact the coast sees almost all frz (verbatim, though I do recall rb you saying that temps might play differently then modeled now, hoping that means colder) cuz the snow map shows both combined.

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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by billg315 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:27 am

jmanley32 wrote:MOG even the euro says crushing ice storm, I really hope this isnt true, so in fact the coast sees almost all frz (verbatim, though I do recall rb you saying that temps might play differently then modeled now, hoping that means colder) cuz the snow map shows both combined.


Yeah, this, we do not need. Inch and a half of ice accretion? No thank you. Lol. Hopefully this changes as we get closer (although GFS yesterday had a prolonged ice event too).
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by skinsfan1177 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:00 am




Please
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by TheAresian on Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:26 am

A question if I may: I see the FV3 showing the bulk of the precip falling from hrs 156-180, but the 850 temps seem a little too high for snow. What am I missing here?




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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:28 am



This is a combination of snow, sleet and ice so the totals are misleading.

The 33 inches over my house as depicted would make it the 3rd largest snow event I've ever seen in this area.
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by TheAresian on Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:34 am

Thanks for the education. I just looked at the snow map above my post and thought Snowmageddon was coming. Although even if this map verified as all snow for my area, it would still fall short of Superstorm '93.
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by Radz on Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:09 am

All 3 globals continue to show a potent storm for next weekend, yet the evolution of the event is changing somewhat- yesterday it looked more like the first wave came through with the arctic front, and then a second wave developed along the front and dropped copious amounts of Qpf with the GOM feed right up the coast...
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:22 am

MY weather channel app, never that reliable but sometimes telling, has 12-21 inches of snow for Orange County next Saturday and Sunday. For three days now it's shown consistently 9-16 and now 12-21. It's seeing something as are all the models at this far out juncture. A lot of model runs between now and next weekend.
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by Radz on Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:43 am

Yup, the app has the snow icons since yesterday morning - just playing off the model runs... and temps Tuesday morning following the storm look to be the coldest thus far this season... trying to temper my enthusiasm, but after this horrible snow drought, I'm already glued to the signs of the pattern evolution...
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:57 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:


Please
a huge portion of that is all ice and sleet. If you look at the surface map with precip types.
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 10:00 am

I hope this trends colder cuz the temps are to high not just along coast but pretty far inland too. If the fv3 played put it would be a crippling ice storm for 95 corridor and about 50 to 75 miles inland.
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by algae888 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 10:04 am

I wouldn't get very excited about next weekend system it looks more like a cold frontal passage with waves of low pressure riding along it. Where the boundary sets up is too early to tell probably wouldn't know till Thursday for sure but don't look for anything big from this but it definitely can drop some snow as Frank says the pattern really gets ripe after this one when we have blocking over Greenland and the Pacific finally slows down
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by rb924119 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 10:13 am

algae888 wrote:I wouldn't get very excited about next weekend system it looks more like a cold frontal passage with  waves of low pressure riding along it. Where the boundary sets up is too early to tell probably wouldn't know till Thursday for sure but don't look for anything big from this but it definitely can drop some snow as Frank says the pattern really gets ripe after this one when we have blocking over Greenland and the Pacific finally slows down

Respectfully disagree, Al Wink I think excitement is warranted at this stage.

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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

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