Re: Banter Thread 5.0

[jmanley32]

And I concur. This has not been a winter imo. Maybe you guts up north who must have had a solid 18 at least so far this year can say so but when I can't even get halfway to double digits I mean Jesus . hands down worst winter I can ever remember. Not even very cold been in 40s most of the winter so far mixed with 30s and maybe a handful of 20s for a low. Not trying to be a pisser but it's a fact so far. Prove me wrong in February. March doesn't count as winter in my eyes though we have had to deal with snow the whole month past few years. I very much dislike this shift in seasons.

[mikeypizano]

Soon, this will be my view once more, and I can't wait. Like Elsa says, its time to LET IT GO and move on!

[Irish]

That lawn needs some work.

[mikeypizano]

That lawn needs some work.

That was the beginning of last season, he has started having it fertilized now so it is doing better. Here is a different yard, that looks a bit better...

[jmanley32]

That lawn needs some work.

That was the beginning of last season, he has started having it fertilized now so it is doing better. Here is a different yard, that looks a bit better...

Nice straight lines, but that must be a heavy mower to push down that grass that deep.

[mikeypizano]

That lawn needs some work.

That was the beginning of last season, he has started having it fertilized now so it is doing better. Here is a different yard, that looks a bit better...

Nice straight lines, but that must be a heavy mower to push down that grass that deep.

That is my lighter mower, around 80lb, versus the one in first pic that is my commercial one that weighs about 120. Grass was thick and lush.

[heehaw453]

I think by mid February we'll know if this is a bonafide ratter or not. Yes it can still snow in March as we all have seen in the past several years, but this year may just be that "special" that it doesn't.

Still have some hope for now...

[jmanley32]

I think by mid February we'll know if this is a bonafide ratter or not.  Yes it can still snow in March as we all have seen in the past several years, but this year may just be that "special" that it doesn't.  

Still have some hope for now...

Can you explain why? It has been mentioned man ytimes a pattern flip for the better but it has not happened numerous times.  It seems to me what is the point at looking at these super long range teleconnections? It seems like its just like taking hour 388 of GFS somewhat seriously.

[heehaw453]

Long range 500mb weather patterns are usually very difficult to predict. Too many variables in play. Isotherm has done a really nice job this year. Kudos to him!

[algae888]

I didnt see one long range forecast with a plus 7 departure for jan.

[heehaw453]

I didnt see one long range forecast with a plus 7 departure for jan.

Good point. I believe Isotherm's call was 1.5 - 3 AN for January. Not sure how anyone with good conscientious would say +7 for January quite honestly that is top 10 analog for sure. It would almost seem like loaded dice at the craps table.

His 500mb pattern call was really good especially with regard to PNA/NAO/EPO which as he stated would be why there would be minimal snow and cold until February especially for the coast. The AO call i think is a bit off as it's been absurdly positive for most of the winter. He thought slightly positive to neutral. But that's one reason why we have been so warm as the flow stays zonal and keeps the arctic air in Canada.

But latest thoughts for February are more precarious now that we're knocking on February's doorstep. We shall see.

His call is the best I've seen from any forecaster up to this point.

[algae888]

I didnt see one long range forecast with a plus 7 departure for jan.

Good point.  I believe Isotherm's call was 1.5 - 3 AN for January.  Not sure how anyone with good conscientious would say +7 for January quite honestly that is top 10 analog for sure.  It would almost seem like loaded dice at the craps table.

His 500mb pattern call was really good especially with regard to PNA/NAO/EPO which as he stated would be why there would be minimal snow and cold until February especially for the coast.  The AO call i think is a bit off as it's been absurdly positive for most of the winter.  He thought slightly positive to neutral.  But that's one reason why we have been so warm as the flow stays zonal and keeps the arctic air in Canada.

But latest thoughts for February are more precarious now that we're knocking on February's doorstep.  We shall see.

His call is the best I've seen from any forecaster up to this point.

Yes I agree he's been the closest with what's happened so far but his departure of + 1.5 to + 3 this pretty far off. For example let's say we ended up January - 1 in Departures I'm sure he would say he failed with his temperature forecast but the plus 7 is the same difference in the opposite direction. I don't think anyone thought the Arctic oscillation would be so positive and that we would have no bouts with a negative EPO most of met winter. And I agree anyone who forecast any of those oscillations and temperature departures the way they occurred would be considered nuts

[sroc4]

I didnt see one long range forecast with a plus 7 departure for jan.

Good point.  I believe Isotherm's call was 1.5 - 3 AN for January.  Not sure how anyone with good conscientious would say +7 for January quite honestly that is top 10 analog for sure.  It would almost seem like loaded dice at the craps table.

His 500mb pattern call was really good especially with regard to PNA/NAO/EPO which as he stated would be why there would be minimal snow and cold until February especially for the coast.  The AO call i think is a bit off as it's been absurdly positive for most of the winter.  He thought slightly positive to neutral.  But that's one reason why we have been so warm as the flow stays zonal and keeps the arctic air in Canada.

But latest thoughts for February are more precarious now that we're knocking on February's doorstep.  We shall see.

His call is the best I've seen from any forecaster up to this point.

Yes I agree he's been the closest with what's happened so far but his departure of + 1.5 to + 3 this pretty far off. For example let's say we ended up January - 1 in Departures I'm sure he would say he failed with his temperature forecast but the plus 7 is the same difference in the opposite direction. I don't think anyone thought the Arctic oscillation would be so positive and that we would have no bouts with a negative EPO most of met winter. And I agree anyone who forecast any of those oscillations and temperature departures the way they occurred would be considered nuts

If you go to his site where he posted his winter forecast way back when here was a very clear statement that he was worried about the +& temp departure:

Caveat: Note that long range temperature departure prognostications are purposefully conservative in their magnitudes, with respect to the positive or negative direction forecasted. Thus, the implicit implication is that, for December and/or January, the primary risk is that the actual departures are even warmer than I am forecasting. For February, the primary risk is that the departures are colder than forecasted. As such, if the evolution is +5, +2, and -2.5 for Dec, Jan and Feb respectively, that will still fit the progression and overall means forecasted.

[algae888]

Scott I miss that in his write-up that's pretty impressive he basically nailed December and January. Let's hope he's right about February.

[frank 638]

OK I don’t wanna complain We all know this is not our winter for snow It’s been a lousy winter so far I was checking out the long range forecast and I don’t see any sign of Pattern change anytime soon Next Tuesday Wednesday is supposed to be in the upper 50s two near 60.And to make it more worse some trees around my have flowers Growing on them already and if anyone works or visiting to Hudson yards by the seven train couple of bushes have yellow flowers on them .I know we are all frustrated but if this winter goes out I just hope we all get one good snowstorm at least a good blizzard for everyone

[heehaw453]

Scott I miss that in his write-up that's pretty impressive he basically nailed December and January. Let's hope he's right about February.

He actually said +5 for December in the caveat. We weren't that bad for December. I really question whether we will be at or below normal for February. Considering next week we'll make a run at 60.

He got the right idea about this winter though, it thoroughly stinks!

[amugs]

OK I don’t wanna complain We all know this is not our winter for snow It’s been a lousy winter so far I was checking out the long range forecast and I don’t see any sign of Pattern change anytime soon Next Tuesday Wednesday is supposed to be in the upper 50s two near 60.And to make it more worse some trees around my have flowers Growing on them already and if anyone works or visiting to Hudson yards by the seven train couple of bushes have yellow flowers on them .I know we are all frustrated but if this winter goes out I just hope we all get one good snowstorm at least a good blizzard for everyone

Banter thread this is what it's for my man.
I hear ya, we get a snowstorm when no one wants its and cries why?  Why not in Dec or Jan
or maybe Feb. Tjis pattern has just been a blindside overall. BN and half of Oct, all of Nov and first 3 weeksnof Dec with snow and ice chances and storms. The models in the LR have been terrible, even up to 3 days before the storms. We were head faked so many times by teles, mjo forecasts even the convection sim radars of the trop pac. The STs of the Modoki Nino never really kicked in. The PAC has been a killer the last two years and after long stretches of N NAO and AO from last spring through mid Dec overall. Watch come March we have this happen and we fight the temps rising, sun angle and the scorn of this winter.
We had favorable indicators going into the winter with SSat,s  QBO reversing, Low Solar, NE warm blob wtc but other drivers overwhelmed the pattern like the positive IO dipole, which also occurred in 1977-78 very similar to this year. Analogs were lining up with some good winters ala 93-94, 66-67, 77-78 to name a few. Then we had a tremendous reversal where the MJO wave set up in phase 4 and just increased and rotated through 5 then 6 and collapsed after 7 which were all warm phases for us . Never got to 8-1-2-3 as some teles and 500mb maps were forecasting.
Another frustrating winter to date and through early Feb. as progged.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Great explanation of what has gone wrong in this God awful winter so far Mugs.

Getting a foot of snow the first two days of December and having snow cover pretty much solid until around the 20th (in the HV I know others didn't even get that) started this winter out with such high hopes. It's been nothing short of a disaster since Dec 22nd. Bluewave from one of the other forums gave the numbers the other day, and if memory serves this is now the 4th warmest Dec 22 through January 29 period in history. It doesn't get much worse than that.

WTS and with no prospects of a pattern change in the foreseeable future I for one am taking a break and will revisit and hope for  some changes by the middle of the month.

One note of hope and it seems to be our recent pattern, March has been the snowiest month in NYC in 4 of the past 5 seasons. Odder still March has been colder than February in two of the last three seasons. Don't be shocked if we repeat the same thing again this year. I'll take snow in any month, but I do prefer front loaded to back loaded winters, but again this year it's just not gonna happen.

[mikeypizano]

Great explanation of what has gone wrong in this God awful winter so far Mugs.

Getting a foot of snow the first two days of December and having snow cover pretty much solid until around the 20th (in the HV I know others didn't even get that) started this winter out with such high hopes. It's been nothing short of a disaster since Dec 22nd. Bluewave from one of the other forums gave the numbers the other day, and if memory serves this is now the 4th warmest Dec 22 through January 29 period in history. It doesn't get much worse than that.

WTS and with no prospects of a pattern change in the foreseeable future I for one am taking a break and will revisit and hope for  some changes by the middle of the month.

One note of hope and it seems to be our recent pattern, March has been the snowiest month in NYC in 4 of the past 5 seasons. Odder still March has been colder than February in two of the last three seasons. Don't be shocked if we repeat the same thing again this year. I'll take snow in any month, but I do prefer front loaded to back loaded winters, but again this year it's just not gonna happen.

Had 2 inches here, every storm. I am honestly done even HOPING for something to change, because, I don't care what models say, what ANY forecaster says, in my mind, NOTHING will save this winter so we may as we just go onto spring and be done.

[Grselig]

Great explanation of what has gone wrong in this God awful winter so far Mugs.

Getting a foot of snow the first two days of December and having snow cover pretty much solid until around the 20th (in the HV I know others didn't even get that) started this winter out with such high hopes. It's been nothing short of a disaster since Dec 22nd. Bluewave from one of the other forums gave the numbers the other day, and if memory serves this is now the 4th warmest Dec 22 through January 29 period in history. It doesn't get much worse than that.

WTS and with no prospects of a pattern change in the foreseeable future I for one am taking a break and will revisit and hope for  some changes by the middle of the month.

One note of hope and it seems to be our recent pattern, March has been the snowiest month in NYC in 4 of the past 5 seasons. Odder still March has been colder than February in two of the last three seasons. Don't be shocked if we repeat the same thing again this year. I'll take snow in any month, but I do prefer front loaded to back loaded winters, but again this year it's just not gonna happen.

Had 2 inches here, every storm. I am honestly done even HOPING for something to change, because, I don't care what models say, what ANY forecaster says, in my mind, NOTHING will save this winter so we may as we just go onto spring and be done.

It’s a cold dead snowless winter. Yes, of course the reasons might be different than last years abomination, but it’s more of the same. A week out they show a storm. 4 days later it’s nothing. Pattern is just not on our side. Maybe a polar bear will sneeze and trigger a butterfly effect. Yeah right. Better chance that aliens come down to Earth with a big snow machine. Time to prep the lawn equipment.

[mikeypizano]

Great explanation of what has gone wrong in this God awful winter so far Mugs.

Getting a foot of snow the first two days of December and having snow cover pretty much solid until around the 20th (in the HV I know others didn't even get that) started this winter out with such high hopes. It's been nothing short of a disaster since Dec 22nd. Bluewave from one of the other forums gave the numbers the other day, and if memory serves this is now the 4th warmest Dec 22 through January 29 period in history. It doesn't get much worse than that.

WTS and with no prospects of a pattern change in the foreseeable future I for one am taking a break and will revisit and hope for  some changes by the middle of the month.

One note of hope and it seems to be our recent pattern, March has been the snowiest month in NYC in 4 of the past 5 seasons. Odder still March has been colder than February in two of the last three seasons. Don't be shocked if we repeat the same thing again this year. I'll take snow in any month, but I do prefer front loaded to back loaded winters, but again this year it's just not gonna happen.

Had 2 inches here, every storm. I am honestly done even HOPING for something to change, because, I don't care what models say, what ANY forecaster says, in my mind, NOTHING will save this winter so we may as we just go onto spring and be done.

It’s a cold dead snowless winter.  Yes, of course the reasons might be different than last years abomination, but it’s more of the same. A week out they show a storm. 4 days later it’s nothing. Pattern is just not on our side.  Maybe a polar bear will sneeze and trigger a butterfly effect.  Yeah right.  Better chance that aliens come down to Earth with a big snow machine.  Time to prep the lawn equipment.  

Looking like 50s here for Monday and Tuesday so I know what I will be doing! I will make sure to post plenty of SNOWLESS pics!

[Radz]

I see the towel being thrown in by many hobbyists and pro mets alike. Be careful what you wish for, this warm and snowless winter may transform into a cold and wet spring...

[mikeypizano]

I see the towel being thrown in by many hobbyists and pro mets alike. Be careful what you wish for, this warm and snowless winter may transform into a cold and wet spring...

That is good for me. Cooler and wetter means grass stays green.

[sroc4]

I see the towel being thrown in by many hobbyists and pro mets alike. Be careful what you wish for, this warm and snowless winter may transform into a cold and wet spring...

That is good for me. Cooler and wetter means grass stays green.

What do you do from Late Oct through March/April? Do you do anything but cut grass? It seems like you need to find a cold month hobby or job to tide you over.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I see the towel being thrown in by many hobbyists and pro mets alike. Be careful what you wish for, this warm and snowless winter may transform into a cold and wet spring...

That is good for me. Cooler and wetter means grass stays green.

What do you do from Late Oct through March/April?  Do you do anything but cut grass?  It seems like you need to find a cold month hobby or job to tide you over.  

[X] Love this post

[Grselig]

I see the towel being thrown in by many hobbyists and pro mets alike. Be careful what you wish for, this warm and snowless winter may transform into a cold and wet spring...

That is good for me. Cooler and wetter means grass stays green.

What do you do from Late Oct through March/April?  Do you do anything but cut grass?  It seems like you need to find a cold month hobby or job to tide you over.  

[X] Love this post

I think he made a killing plowing white gold. That’s dried up

[docstox12]

When winter hands you lemons I make lemonade.I'm saving on snowplowing ( sorry Mikey P) and also saving money heating the house!
As CP said above, it's been March the last few years so I am hanging on to my towel until March 15.Still in the game until then.I'm staying here through thick and thin.I've always said about the weather, and life in general, you have to scrape rock bottoms to enjoy the tops! Keep calm and carry on all!

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