Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

[heehaw453]

It just nukes SNE.  It's still maturing up until Maine.  How many Miller A storms mature all the way from North Carolina to Down East Maine?  Cannot think of too many quite honestly.

[heehaw453]

I'm gathering the storm had been off the coast too far to make a great impact and now it's getting within greater striking distance?

Still way too early to know anything definitive. I think by Wednesday night we know better if this is something to get excited about. Too much model inconsistency ATTM.

[Irish]

Completely understand, thx.

[heehaw453]

Regardless of what models are saying now regarding this weekend still think this is a window of opportunity.  NAO is going into negative territory and PNA already in positive territory.

I'll still be happy with my usual 1-2", but who knows.

[SENJsnowman]

Regardless of what models are saying now regarding this weekend still think this is a window of opportunity.  NAO is going into negative territory and PNA already in positive territory.

This is prime-time for the wiper effect, entering the 5-7 day window. So, just from a 'forecast' standpoint, I was pretty much expecting to wake up to bad news from my app this morning. And I like the fact that the some of the big drivers (+PNA, -NAO) seemed to have survived the night. lol. Looking forward to the Wednesday time frame when some of these drivers do (or do not) start to materialize.

Right now, an orange sticky for 'new post' next to a Hee Haw, SRoc, Mugs, etc... makes me feel like the Hot Now sign being lit up at Krispy Kreme.  

[Irish]

It's so funny you say that SENJ, because every time a new post is made and a specific name like the ones you've mentioned and others, i can't wait ro read the update. Like a flashing beacon!

[amugs]

From a pro met
You have one piece of energy coming into a denser observation area, and two other pieces right in the middle of the ocean. I expect to see models guess at solutions until at least 00z tonight; recon data will help. No one should be making any definitive calls at this time are wrong for doing so (professional speaking). We play the waiting game with each run on ENS.

The circled areas are the playa's
Windshield wiper in full effect until Thursday I'd say
One thing we must remember, the Northern Energy is key to this bombing out the storm Phasing it and bringing snow to the coast in the crappy air mass. IF we can get it to happen by the Outer Banks or VA Capes then the coast will be in good shape - off NJ it is tough call.

[phil155]

IF is definitely the correct word for this potential event as this is truly a thread the needle kind of event, patience is key here I think to getting the correct solution as right now it seems like it is just too early. I would like to see a nice snowstorm but I am not getting my hopes up just yet

[heehaw453]

This is nice look at the h5 as per 12Z Euro. Very pretty.  Digging northern stream trough which is neutral tilt. Yes the southern stream energy gets kicked out to sea because the timing is about 6-8 hours off, but just get some better synergy and timing with the southern stream and it'd be a nice storm.

I will give this at least until Thursday morning for models to start showing big dog solutions again before I'm done with this one.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Every operational run so far today from every major model seems to be a swing and a miss. Hopefully there are some positive trends by tomorrow night or this one is toast.

[docstox12]

Yes, CP, Lee Goldberg ATM feels it's just a graze along the coast as there is no phasing.Even worse, he sees a torch next week into the 50's.

[Frank_Wx]

Today's GFS shows a PV split in the Strat at 10mb in the medium range. Confidence growing we are headed toward a SSWE that should bring us a stretch of 10-12 days of colder than normal weather. Unfortunately, the zonal winds do not seem to want to shift westerly which could make the pattern change short lived before we head back into the pattern we've been in for the last several weeks.

[Frank_Wx]

This is a horrific upper level pattern shown on the GFS regarding the weekend storm. Positively tilted trough, collapsing ridge, disjoined energy.

Fogetaboutit

[jmanley32]

This is a horrific upper level pattern shown on the GFS regarding the weekend storm. Positively tilted trough, collapsing ridge, disjoined energy.

Fogetaboutit

yep that does look horrid and not at all unexpected. I think I'm.throwing in the towel on this one too. Night all. Starting to wonder if we will see any meaningful snow. If we have 10 to 12 days then a long warm up it'll be spring by then.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Some improvements on 0Z tonight but still misses. Still time for this but need to see a full day of W trends tomorrow.

[heehaw453]

Yes.  Give it another full day before putting the coastal solution to bed.  But the h5 just doesn't really support it ATTM by most modeling.  Btw., I really wish Euro would go back to 12 hour periodicity of its runs.  

The best chance for some modest snow IMO is when the trough swings through.  Have felt that for a few days.

[heehaw453]

Next week (Wednesday) could be in the 50's before getting colder. Could make a push for 60.

In regard to the LR (i don't look beyond 10 days), I don't see much in the way of any sustained high latitude blocking. Maybe some transient stuff. The PAC looks a bit better with regard to EPO/PNA. In short, I'm not overly enthused about what I see and next chance of snow probably after 2/7. I think we'll need something well timed quite honestly.

[sroc4]

Not Good


Weve been saying this for some time now but the only teleconnection we really had on our side for this chance over the weekend was the +PNA.  IMHO the PNA ridge held the key to this entire thing. As you can see below the first image represents the Friday time frame.  The set up headed into the weekend actually looks decent.  Southern energy(2) out ahead of northern energy(1).  That was imperative otherwise the noethern energy would have no options but to defelect the southern energy south.  With 2 out in front of 1 there is a chance for 1 to dig into the backside of 2 combining energy amplifying our storm which in turn raises heights out front shifting our steering current into a more SW to NE orientation instead of  an WSW to ENE flow; the former of which would steer the system more up the coast.  HOWEVER, look out west.  

You can see the Pac energy (3) headed towards the WC.  In the first image we actually have a decent ridge along the west coast of the CONUS with the eastern flank of said ridge oriented nicely more north to south which should promote a digging of energy labeled 1.  Unfortunately however, (timing is everything) energy 3, which is potent, is crashing the coast at a most in opportune time.  The result of this is to flatten our +PNA ridge right when we need it most.  

Look back at the first  image at where energy 1 is centered.  Now look at it in the second image.  Notice if anything its actually centered a tad further north.  By the second image we need to see 1 merging with 2 further south than in the first image.  You want me drawing one circle around both energies in the second image.  Instead I still have 2 circles with white in between them in the second image.  This indicates the two jet streams are still separate from one another. No Bueno.  

Again to summarize, the energy crashing the coast out west is keeping the Pac jet separate from the STJ.  With absolutely NOTHING helping on the Atlantic side you can see how 1 and 2 remain seperate from one another and our southern piece, 2, slides out to our south OTS.   The merging/phasing of the 2 pieces of energy is key.  

The timing and strength of the energy out west If slowed by a mere 12 hrs +/- or weaker could still lead to a very different soln.  With still a fair amount of time to go and the northern AND Pac energy still out over the Pac ocean, I have not closed the door just yet, BUT the trends for several days now has been to flatten the ridge faster, AND I DONT LIKE IT, although given the pattern it  doesnt surprise me at all.  Threading the needle is hard.  

Regarding the longer term and the strat and pattern change etc.  All I will say is everything we are looking at is still 200+ hours out, so I will not rush to anything just yet as we have seen time and time again the modeling hinting at the pattern change only to have reality settle back into the pattern that has been.  In the words of the great Forest Gump..."That's all I have to say about that".    

[jmanley32]

That's not good to hear Scott but as you said not unexpected. I'm trying to hold onto something from Feb. But it sounds like chances there are bleak too. If we don't we move on to severe storms and hurricanes lol. Which will probably be a disappointment too but you never know. I guess there's still possibility this turns around for Saturday being 4 to 5 days out but if in the next day or so we do not see any improvement as you said "not good".

[jmanley32]

12z GFS is a OTS miss, don't think this is going to happen, and Feb 5th is a cutter sigh

[sroc4]

euro still holding onto small hope

[algae888]

euro still holding onto small hope

Yeah H5 improved on all guidance today but did not reflect at the surface. We need the northern stream vort to dig as far as South as possible. I almost wish there was no Southern stream involvement too many vorts screwing everything up. Out in Fantasyland on the EPS shows a monster EPO Ridge not buying it yet but it looks nice

[amugs]

Great write up Scott, the PAC JET is killing us. LR had such promise and now we are looking at near 50 Mon and Tues. Gonna be interesting to see what happens after this cold front comes though Tuesday night

[jmanley32]

euro still holding onto small hope

do you have maps? Do we get hit or is it still a miss.

[heehaw453]

Latest NAM seems similar to Euro at the h5 with the southern stream being too far out in front of the northern stream. If there was something to stop the flow of the atmosphere you'd have a monster forming and giving us the goods. It'd allow for a nice and complete phase off VA coast. These phasing storms to affect our latitude usually need that flow to backup with 50/50 low or pronounced -NAO. I remember Boxing Day storm had the pronounced -NAO going for it which really helped form that monster at low enough latitude for us to get slammed. It didn't allow the southern stream to escape like this win most likely will.

The way I see this now it's going to be good for Nova Scotia and then NL, CA. Maybe even Downeast Maine gets clipped.

[phil155]

Great write up Scott, the PAC JET is killing us. LR had such promise and now we are looking at near 50 Mon and Tues. Gonna be interesting to see what happens after this cold front comes though Tuesday night

At this point I think it is reasonable to say the trend is our friend(in this case it is not being very friendly) in trying to get an idea of what will happen with this front and the cold air like most recent cold air masses is not likely to stick around long or at least long enough for it to lead to measurable snow

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

euro still holding onto small hope

do you have maps? Do we get hit or is it still a miss.

You know better, if we got a hit this thread would have jumped three pages in the last 30 minutes.

Still OTS but is a 991 off the Delmarva about due south of RI at 7am Saturday. Still misses us but improvements over the last run.

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