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January 25th Winter Storm

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Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Jan 21, 2020 6:49 am

Here is an update on the latest from one of our own board members - heehaw.

This could be workable for the HV & NEPA and is better than 12Z run.  I will stress margins on this are razor thin with respect to the ULL movement and mid level temps.  A tick north and this will be confined to I-90 corridor.  The concern I have is the movement of the ULL becomes very sharp towards the north east.  It's only after that sharp movement that the ULL feels the block. You want the ULL to stall before that north east movement, then things would be much different.  It is what it is with regard to this winter.

Tomorrow after 12Z should really narrow the goal posts for the ULL.

January 25th Winter Storm  Euro310

January 25th Winter Storm  Euro16

12 hour later.  A complete stall of the ULL

January 25th Winter Storm  Euro211

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Post by dkodgis on Tue Jan 21, 2020 7:46 am

Doc, I saw that too. Going from 30-60% Fri night, a mix with some snow, and Sun "snow likely". Round and round she goes, and where she stops...the models know closer to the event.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Tue Jan 21, 2020 8:41 am

This mornings GFS. It's been pretty consistent wanting to drop 6 inches plus in HV and NEPA into NWNJ. Still not much hope for much of the forum but still far enough away for most not to lose hope.

January 25th Winter Storm  Gfs_ja11
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Post by docstox12 on Tue Jan 21, 2020 8:47 am

Damian, CP, jimv and Hyde, we could be looking at a HV special here.Still a long way to go but some hope anyway.Heres' hoping!
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Post by hyde345 on Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:10 am

Could be Doc. Elevation will also be key with this system. I think places 50 or so miles N and W with some elevation could do pretty well. I'm in valley so we will see how it plays out.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:26 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:This mornings GFS. It's been pretty consistent wanting to drop 6 inches plus in HV and NEPA into NWNJ. Still not much hope for much of the forum but still far enough away for most not to lose hope.

January 25th Winter Storm  Gfs_ja11

This morning 6Z Euro snow map similar to this mornings 6Z GFS for our area.

January 25th Winter Storm  Euro_j10
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Post by SENJsnowman on Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:32 am

If I'm not mistaken, that Euro puts up to an inch over all of coastal Ocean County. And drops 1-2 inches over most of central NJ. So...hope has arrived! ha ha. Now back to work for me...

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:19 am

12Z GFS.

And the winner again is Mikey in Albany

January 25th Winter Storm  Gfs_ja12
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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:24 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:This mornings GFS. It's been pretty consistent wanting to drop 6 inches plus in HV and NEPA into NWNJ. Still not much hope for much of the forum but still far enough away for most not to lose hope.

January 25th Winter Storm  Gfs_ja11

This morning 6Z Euro snow map similar to this mornings 6Z GFS for our area.

January 25th Winter Storm  Euro_j10
that even gives me a little something let's keep that south trend a bit. So we all cash in.
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Post by jimv45 on Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:36 am

Yep cp, I might be in a good spot for something but when all said and done I expect like hyde said this will be an elevation type storm. This might end up more north when the final result comes in.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Tue Jan 21, 2020 12:04 pm

@jimv45 wrote:Yep cp, I might be in a good spot for something but when all said and done I expect like hyde said this will be an elevation type storm. This might end up more north when the final result comes in.

The clown maps are what they are now and that's for amusement purposes only. I'm sure the next time our experts chime in (Frank, Sroc, Al, Mugs, Heehaw, whatever happened to RB?) they will tell us of all the various possibilities at this stage which are still many.
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Post by jimv45 on Tue Jan 21, 2020 12:08 pm

Yes many things can still happen! Where is RB? I think this winter put him to sleep

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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Jan 21, 2020 12:15 pm

Is there any shot the coast or just inland can see a decent snow out of this? I am just curious because if not theres no real point in ME putting effort into following this, and hats off to those who do benefit.
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Post by heehaw453 on Tue Jan 21, 2020 12:20 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@jimv45 wrote:Yep cp, I might be in a good spot for something but when all said and done I expect like hyde said this will be an elevation type storm. This might end up more north when the final result comes in.

The clown maps are what they are now and that's for amusement purposes only. I'm sure the next time our experts chime in (Frank, Sroc, Al, Mugs, Heehaw, whatever happened to RB?) they will tell us of all the various possibilities at this stage which are still many.

My two main concerns for significant snow for NW folks are the antecedent air mass (mid levels and surface) and the proximity of the ULL.  I can see how LHV gets significant snow just due to the amount of qpf and being just cold enough.  I can also see how this thing falls off a cliff really fast.  It really will come down to the block of the ULL, but the antecedent air mass will be much less than ideal.  That is certain.

It's an interesting setup for sure...

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Post by jimv45 on Tue Jan 21, 2020 12:59 pm

Yep Heehaw, I am thinking this could be an elevation type event! Just hate the storms with that cold rain in the 30s.

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Post by mikeypizano on Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:31 pm

Probably going to be yet another 2 inch or so bust... I am hoping for an early spring, this winter BLOWS!
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Post by heehaw453 on Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:38 pm

Based on what i see from Euro and even UKIE 12Z today is not what you want to see for sig snow. The ULL wants to go more northerly than easterly as it gets towards our longitude. When you see the ULL do this that is telling me the block isn't keeping this thing moving along off shore. It basically breaks down.

Hopefully this trends differently tomorrow and the ULL moves more east than north.

From my perspective though, I'd say anyone under route 80 is out of the game for this.

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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Jan 21, 2020 3:46 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:Based on what i see from Euro and even UKIE 12Z today is not what you want to see for sig snow.  The ULL wants to go more northerly than easterly as it gets towards our longitude.  When you see the ULL do this that is telling me the block isn't keeping this thing moving along off shore.  It basically breaks down.

Hopefully this trends differently tomorrow and the ULL moves more east than north.

From my perspective though, I'd say anyone under route 80 is out of the game for this.
so that keeps just north of nyc in the game by like 15 miles for me and North from there lol. I'll be pulling my hair on this one. Hopefully we can get spacing of more than i80 north. that is I want it further south of that i80 line.
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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Jan 21, 2020 3:50 pm

Right now my nws forecast says quick snow to rain. And thanks for well wishes I'm.still a bit sluggish from the anesthesia yesterday but I'm good to go to work tomorrow. If I do not see snow can't bee too upset as it's not all that unexpected in this pattern we have. I'd prefer dry cuz I'm taking a trip to CT Friday night...will they have more of a shot at snow along the sound coast?
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Tue Jan 21, 2020 5:24 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Right now my nws forecast says quick snow to rain. And thanks for well wishes I'm.still a bit sluggish from the anesthesia yesterday but I'm good to go to work tomorrow. If I do not see snow can't bee too upset as it's not all that unexpected in this pattern we have. I'd prefer dry cuz I'm taking a trip to CT Friday night...will they have more of a shot at snow along the sound coast?

Judge for yourself. No runs of the GFS have had any accumulation in eastern CT from this setup. This is todays 18Z GFS. On Todays GFS runs I've gone from 9 inches to 5 inches to now 1 inch. Who knows what tomorrow brings but Heehaw has been saying bad trends today.

If you want to see snow this weekend your best bet is the Catskills or visit Mikey in Albany and the hills 20 miles to his west.

January 25th Winter Storm  Gfs_ja13
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Post by jimv45 on Tue Jan 21, 2020 5:43 pm

Not expecting much even where I am in Saugerties! Elevation type setup looking likely, Boy I hate 30s and rain. Hope for better trends but not expecting them.

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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Jan 21, 2020 6:30 pm

It's ok CP nothing I'm not used too. Looking forward to a relaxing weekend after all this medical crap. Let it snow or don't.
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Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Jan 21, 2020 7:45 pm

The only thing worse than cold/dry is cold with 33 degrees and rain. That is what Saturday is shaping up to be for most.

January 25th Winter Storm  Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_16

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Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Jan 21, 2020 7:54 pm

This 500mb vort map valid for Friday morning shows why our area will struggle to see snow. Those 2 'eye-like' features in the Midwest represent the northern stream energy. It actually comes in 2 separate vorts. Because they are already closed off, hence the round shape, the phase will occur WELL west of us back toward Chicago land. Normally this results in a cutter. However, this becomes an upper level low because of the PNA spike and blocking over Canada. The PNA spike is normally a good thing but there is a trough off the west coast crashing into the ridge which forces everything to slide east disrupting the flow.

January 25th Winter Storm  Gfs_z500_vort_namer_11

Heights rise along the east coast and the ULL ends up tracking either over or just N&W of us. Unfortunately it is not a good set-up, but one worth watching for at least 1 more day especially N&W of NYC.


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Post by weatherwatchermom on Tue Jan 21, 2020 8:06 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:The only thing worse than cold/dry is cold with 33 degrees and rain. That is what Saturday is shaping up to be for most.

January 25th Winter Storm  Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_16
did it not snow in DC when it was 70* out....lol
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