Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-

phil155 wrote:Looks like some convection is starting to fire but the storm does not look healthy overall. Will be very interesting to see how it develops and where it goes as none of the models( that I am aware of) saw it degrade like it did today.

The eye passed over the heart of Andros island. Combined with the shear and dry air it quickly weakened it a bit. It should restrengthen a little now that the center is on the other side.  And you are def correct in that the convection has returned on the north side of the low level center.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=vis
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=ir

You can see just how exposed the low level center was. Almost no convection over the top of the LLC.  If the convection can recenter at least somewhat over top it will restrengthen some again.  




I would just like to say models DID tip off that it would likely weaken if you new where to look.  Again dry air and shear were always there in the models.

GreyBeard wrote:I've been watching everybodys ' favorite TWC just because they have been reporting from Ft. Lauderdale, where my son lives.But you are right, according to them it presently isn't all that organized yet. They are looking for the thunderstorms to wrap around the center,which isn't happening just yet. But there is plenty of warm open water to give it some strength.We'll see how things develop.

Take a break. You've been on this thing all hours of the day and night from what I can see.

bored lol love tropical.season but I'll stop post his every move lol.

Wow that blow up of convection Scott was incredibly fast and looking like a quick restrengthen. We will see new recon headed there. First time I seen him so circular. The island I honestly didn't notice that did play a big factor.

Sorry gotta post this really impressive you can see upper level eye forming. And the second link shows how well defined the wind spin is.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=ir

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-77.78,26.20,2724/loc=-82.361,26.999

Okay took a 13 hr hiatus lol, weakened a lot now progged to be minimal TS up this way but sorry ray looks like he will be over land or within just a few miles offshore, if you still think he is go be offshore 150 im curious to hear why, both hurricane models take him through NJ. puts NYC and long island in the strongest winds and west of track highest rain of course any deviation i ntrack would change where those two things set up. I see storm mode but no writeup, maybe someone is doing it now. some storms today i see.

I think he is going to miss Florida. First landfall likely to be over North Carolina which is what will weaken him to a depression or weak TS by the time he gets to us. Satellite shows a more formidable storm this morning compared to yesterday at this time.



The strongest winds will be on the eastern side of the storm. If the center tracks over NYC, as an example, Long Island will see close to TS force winds. Here is the HRWF showing just that.



Areas west of the center, meanwhile, will flooding rains approaching or perhaps surpassing 4 inches in some spots. The places that will see less rain will be those where the center tracks over. All of the precip is expected to be on the western quadrant.

GFS this morning shows the heavier rains in NNJ and eastern PA. The shore areas, NYC and LI escape heaviest of rains but will deal with higher winds (especially central and eastern LI).

Frank_Wx wrote:I think he is going to miss Florida. First landfall likely to be over North Carolina which is what will weaken him to a depression or weak TS by the time he gets to us. Satellite shows a more formidable storm this morning compared to yesterday at this time.



The strongest winds will be on the eastern side of the storm. If the center tracks over NYC, as an example, Long Island will see close to TS force winds. Here is the HRWF showing just that.



Areas west of the center, meanwhile, will flooding rains approaching or perhaps surpassing 4 inches in some spots. The places that will see less rain will be those where the center tracks over. All of the precip is expected to be on the western quadrant.

I have no doubt he misses FL, no model shows it anymore.  I am curious if theres anyway he can regain from there to carolinas, that could mean less weakening up to here.  I know those are 900mb winds but 110kts can't be low end TS even half would be over 60mph.  Or will it be lack of convection not allowing wind to mix down? Its weird how its go be close to dry and windy on east side and pouring and not as windy on west.

What are the chances two tropical systems b4 september track over or near NYC? Thats gotta be a record.

Absolutely JMAN. Maybe Doc can verify but in 1960 I believe Donna and then Carol hit the area within weeks but in Late August and September.
2020 for you.

Latest NHC cone and write up says it remains a Tropical Storm and albeit weak to moderate has a very strong JET Streak over upper NY State than will allow the rain field to expand a bit and be heavier. The track shows what will be issues for the Jersey shore with Tropical force winds, rains and coastal flooding Tuesday.

The track jogged east a tad and it is over teh lowland,marshlands of the land it shall pass over and the NHC discussion is stating teh in teh next 48-72 hours Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings will be hoisted for the Mid Atlantic into Northeast.

Jet streak map that will enhance the rains up over GL & NW NY State


12Z GFS shows the tick east

amugs wrote:The track jogged east a tad and it is over teh lowland,marshlands of the land it shall pass over  and the NHC discussion is stating teh in teh next 48-72 hours Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings will be hoisted for the Mid Atlantic into Northeast.

Jet streak map that will enhance the rains up over GL & NW NY State


12Z GFS shows the tick east

Hey mugs, links aren't working again

@ Zoo
A VA FUNGUL!!!!!!!!!!!!
Let's try this

Hey, it looks like he is trying to get stronger recon is showing winds above 60kts, i think he may be headed for a weak hurricane again.  As mugs said only 2020. Yeah doc whats the stats on a tropical system passing NYC area right over in two months?

65kt winds found in one spot so far and consistant 55-60 kts finding, i think we go have at least a 70mph TS again. Pressures dropping too. And in last few frames looks like a eye is starting, he is nearly vertically stacked i read.

WHOA MON SAYS GET OUT HE ARC MOSES!!!





A tick east - passes right over NYC!! Its like NHC drew up the new path trajectory and the HMON says let's double down on this path!!

Again this is going to be issues for teh NJ Coast and LI Atlantic facing shores - I can see NHC hoisting TS Watches tonight for these areas.

UKIE's rainfall maps are wonky in NNJ

amugs wrote:UKIE's rainfall maps are wonky in NNJ

f sake does that say 9.7 just around my ara!! the state line is blocking it but color would suggest.  Yeah hmon brings very strong winds to nyc area on east, even for a time along jersey shore, hh just found 77.1 mph flight level around 900mb height. i think we may get up to a cane again. Oh and dropsond found no shear!

very impressive windfield being found on north and east side so far, much higher than earlier runs, likely due to the reduced to almost zero shear.

https://tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF300-1909A-ISAIAS.png

amugs wrote:@ Zoo
A VA FUNGUL!!!!!!!!!!!!
Let's try this

hahahahaha that's better!

UKIE WIND GUSTS - I'd say reduce by 10 mph??



Ray what's yuor thoughts on this bad boy?

amugs wrote:UKIE WIND GUSTS - I'd say reduce by 10  mph??



Ray what's yuor thoughts on this bad boy?

Wow so roughly 60mph west of NYC increasing to as high as 90mph out on LI? Thats a very strong TS, UKIE must have it higher than a 50mph TS. Ray is hiding cuz his forecast doesnt look like it will pan out lol jk, but ya where are ya ray.  dvorak is showing a eye trying to pop and they finding more increased winds in the 64-83 kt range on the recon link i posted.

It’s gon’ RAIN.

Just got a alert from the weather channel for a flash flood watch 2-4 inch’s of rain From Tuesday till late Tuesday night I wonder when will tropical storm watches go up

frank 638 wrote:Just got a alert from the weather channel for a flash flood watch 2-4 inch’s of rain From Tuesday till late Tuesday night I wonder when will tropical storm watches go up

my guess tonight and warnings tomorrow. Look above at ukie winds if they verify go be a lot power outage in entire area. Ukie has the winds over night tues. This go be quick hitter. Oh and recon continues to show much higher winds an indication he is prolly restrengthening a bit.

SoulSingMG wrote:It’s gon’ RAIN.

lol family guy. Also looks like some pretty serious winds for us too buddy we will see.

I’m in Suffolk County. I’m in for alittle over 2”. I expected much more. I guess the track gets most west