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May 2020 Observations & Discussions

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Post by Frank_Wx on Sun May 03, 2020 9:58 pm

I blinked and somehow we are already in May.

May 2020 Observations & Discussions Apr20TDeptNRCC

Temperatures in the month of April ended -3 to -6 below normal. The main factor that lead to these cooler conditions was a very strong ridge centered over the north-central Pacific, also know as the -EPO ridge. Check out April 2020's 500mb height anomalies.

May 2020 Observations & Discussions P9vOUZITqn

Man, a ridge like that during the winter would have results in at minimum a Mothrazilla event. Also, April featured an east-based -NAO block.

Oh well Sad

The EURO Ensembles continue to show much of the same - below normal temps thru the next 10 days or so. This past weekend was a true gift from Mother Nature.

May 2020 Observations & Discussions Ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_10

I guess enjoy the cooler weather, because once this breaks, it is going to get warm/hot real fast around here...

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Post by Frank_Wx on Mon May 04, 2020 1:57 pm

Our stretch of nice weekends may come to an end soon.

Rain Wednesday and looks likely for Saturday too as a coastal storm tries to form. We'll see if models still show this system by mid-week

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Post by weatherwatchermom on Mon May 04, 2020 2:22 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Our stretch of nice weekends may come to an end soon.

Rain Wednesday and looks likely for Saturday too as a coastal storm tries to form. We'll see if models still show this system by mid-week

Thank you for the update Frank..missed you...hope all is well?!
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Post by mwilli on Mon May 04, 2020 7:33 pm

I was given a weather question and could not give a answer question is "if a tropical storm/hurricane formed in Fla and heads up the east coast could the force of the winds kill the virus"? Logic tells me no..what do you think

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Post by billg315 on Mon May 04, 2020 7:38 pm

This system Wednesday would have the look of a nice quick-hit snowstorm if it were February - or even March. Cold rain for now. More cold rain this weekend. And I don’t know what to make of those models showing snow next week. But hey. This is the year of crazy right?
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Post by dkodgis on Mon May 04, 2020 8:03 pm

Winds here are a steady 25 mph with gusts to 35. Occasional drops to 16 ish but surprisingly steady. Trees are swaying.
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Post by amugs on Mon May 04, 2020 11:52 pm

Freeze and frost warnings  likely this week and weekend for many. And this by the GFS??
May 2020 Observations & Discussions 5eb0a910
I see this more as elevation snow than anything for the mountains in NWNJ, Loconos and Catskills up to Adirondack and Berkeshires

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Post by weatherwatchermom on Tue May 05, 2020 7:00 am

Low of 45 this morning...but bright and sunny!
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Post by amugs on Tue May 05, 2020 10:12 am

For the Hudson valley Gang as they have talked about the great snow of '77!
May 2020 Observations & Discussions Hudson10

Here are the temperature anomalies - differences between the Normal highs/lows for this time of the year - if this were the heart of winter we'd be about single digits to zero/below zero for highs and single digits to 20 below for lows possibly colder. If you had a snow pack on the ground with clear skies with this Polar Vortex Air mass you'd be crying uncle!!!!!

May 2020 Observations & Discussions Exqkw_10


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Post by amugs on Tue May 05, 2020 11:47 am

5 weeks until summer and we are talking frost, freeze, snow still and next week as well. After this, Mid May we'll rebound to warmer temps 65-70 degrees and it will feel great after this.
Dew Points - I'll take this from July 4th until September 15th please LOL!
May 2020 Observations & Discussions Image.png.08aad069b37d7d6b2dc115a69d3549a3

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Post by amugs on Tue May 05, 2020 1:29 pm

GFS really?? This model hitting the pipe??
May 2020 Observations & Discussions Gfs_de10
If this were this winter we'd be happy but ...!


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Post by amugs on Tue May 05, 2020 2:01 pm

For fun only at this time
May 2020 Observations & Discussions Screenshot.thumb.png.6ec01a3bfc0dc9a10c0303e94a463d08

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Post by amugs on Tue May 05, 2020 2:03 pm

Where is the cold coming from - SANTA sent it LOL!
May 2020 Observations & Discussions EXRYDhmWsAEMpm4?format=jpg&name=medium

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Post by dkodgis on Tue May 05, 2020 2:11 pm

Truth be told, I think it was sent by CPCantmeasurerain
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Post by amugs on Tue May 05, 2020 4:17 pm

12ZEuro is more realistic to a degree but still
May 2020 Observations & Discussions Ecmwf-14

May 2020 Observations & Discussions Ecmwf-15

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Post by weatherwatchermom on Wed May 06, 2020 9:47 am

raw day out..currently 51 with winds 13 mph from the east
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Post by amugs on Wed May 06, 2020 12:31 pm

Okay folks this can be historic this weekend. Temps near freezing for lows or below in some sections of NNJ and HV and snow. Oh highs only 40-46 for the area Sunday
May 2020 Observations & Discussions Receiv10[/url]" />

Look at the freezing line in white for America on Saturday morning insane
May 2020 Observations & Discussions Img_2054

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Post by amugs on Wed May 06, 2020 3:00 pm

GFS saying it too now, history in the making if we get flakes into NYC and the coastal plain. Last time in recorded modern history.....CP any ideas?
May 2020 Observations & Discussions Img_2055

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Post by amugs on Wed May 06, 2020 6:34 pm

MAY IT show LOL!!!
May 2020 Observations & Discussions 20200510
May 2020 Observations & Discussions 20200511

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Post by frank 638 on Wed May 06, 2020 7:43 pm

@amugs wrote:MAY IT show LOL!!!
May 2020 Observations & Discussions 20200510
May 2020 Observations & Discussions 20200511
wow this crazy can you Imagine waking up on a Saturday morning with an inch of snow even down to the city and cost and the craziest thing about it memorial Day is around the corner when beaches and pools open up I know this year its Going to be different beaches will be closed until further notice

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Post by Frank_Wx on Thu May 07, 2020 8:03 am

@weatherwatchermom wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Our stretch of nice weekends may come to an end soon.

Rain Wednesday and looks likely for Saturday too as a coastal storm tries to form. We'll see if models still show this system by mid-week

Thank you for the update Frank..missed  you...hope all is well?!

Being home for a long stretch of time is getting me cranky, but I've been well tongue Wink

@mwilli wrote:I was given a weather question and could not give a answer question is "if a tropical storm/hurricane  formed in Fla and heads up the east coast could the force of the winds kill the virus"? Logic tells me no..what do you think

Logic is correct

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Post by Frank_Wx on Thu May 07, 2020 8:06 am

Whose ready for the rain Friday afternoon into Saturday morning? I would not discount N&W seeing some non accumulating snow. Hey, maybe even the coastal plain sees a changeover to snow at the backend

May 2020 Observations & Discussions Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_8

850mb temps will be cold enough but the surface temps will be above freezing for many

May 2020 Observations & Discussions Gfs_T850_neus_9

May 2020 Observations & Discussions Gfs_T2m_neus_9

My thought is a changeover to snow for N&W - MAYBE up to 1" in spots - but for the most part I think it's non accumulating.

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Post by Dunnzoo on Thu May 07, 2020 8:48 am

I'll be happy with white rain! Late night zoom meeting Friday night anyone? Razz

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Post by billg315 on Thu May 07, 2020 12:43 pm

Starting to look like this May snow could be real? I’m starting to feel pretty confident the rain ends as snow Friday night. Probably no accumulation (except maybe in higher elevations of NJ like Sussex Co.), but can definitely see flakes falling from the sky for many people if you stay awake late enough.
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Post by dkodgis on Fri May 08, 2020 6:00 am

Janet, what a nice idea. We have been Zooming all day every day around here for work and school.
Let's see if your idea gains traction. I must say Spectrum has been rock solid.

Woke up this morning to 35 degrees at 5 am. For some reason, going outside reminded me of an August summer morning where it can get down at night and be crisp in the morning. Everything outside is on hold for at least until next weekend. Can't even think about the pool. Still burning the wood stove (on now) and it feels like I could be reaching for hot cider and looking at the leaves changing color.

And yes. Open the economy.
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