Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)

amugs wrote:We have a Start Warming event taking place as per the GFS from the EPO heat transport over the Alaska region, longer term colder solution?

So here’s my opinion on any **potential** SSW event, and this was ripped from another discussion with a fellow poster, as well as from a post elsewhere:

“....if we can really get the MJO to gain serious amplitude and propagate SLOWLY through the Maritime Continent, that’s a precursor to a true SSW event with favorable alignment (for our region) thanks to the thermodynamics involved. But, we’d have to both take it on the proverbial chin and deal with another torch of a December and probably first half of January AND THEN hope that it’s enough to seriously weaken the anomalously strong stratospheric vortex in a background/QBO state that lessens the overall receptivity to such perturbation. But I think that would really be our best shot at seeing any prolonged winter regime in the eastern CONUS, and have for some time, as at least conceptually, the conditions are mildly decent for the tropospheric evolution.”

With regard to what is being shown on the GFS Op at hour 384, this will likely continue to be mainly overdone, at least for the foreseeable future unless we get a very impressive tropical forcing response for an extended period (i.e. the MJO/standing wave reach 2-sigma or greater deviation for several weeks). IF I start seeing that, again, it’s PLAUSIBLE that this occurs given the likely positive interference that I think will occur between the standing wave and MJO pulse, but I’m not sure if the verified amplitude will be enough given the pre-existing strength of the PV. That said, ANY positive interference between the tropical convective modes will help to weaken it some if it’s sustained long enough. The question is: Would it be enough to give us hope for prolonged winter weather? Without a true SSW, I honestly don’t think so.

P.S. Yes, my other write up is still in the works - I’ve been forced chip away at it rather than blast it out all at once.

Looking forward to more long range discussions.

Can someone explain what in blue blazes we need to have a sustained -EPO . With the difference of this years IOD(neutral) and now a moderate LA Nina , why can't the tropical forcing give us a sustained -EPO . I know there's no easy answer, but there has to be something that lends for a more likely -EPO

I am seeing one pretty big and disturbing trend in the long range. The trop polar vortex, or a piece of it, is trying to move toward Alaska and stay there. A TPV over Alaska = very bad news for seeing colder than normal weather in our area. We'll see if it comes to fruition or not. Here is one analog I saw thrown around today, January 2012.

Frank_Wx wrote:I am seeing one pretty big and disturbing trend in the long range. The trop polar vortex, or a piece of it, is trying to move toward Alaska and stay there. A TPV over Alaska = very bad news for seeing colder than normal weather in our area. We'll see if it comes to fruition or not. Here is one analog I saw thrown around today, January 2012.

NOAA seems to be picking up on that as well:

Strat Warming Event albeit not strong extends from Dec through early January - wildcard of course but interesting to see how this plays out. I'd rather a weak Strat event that couples with the troposphere and elongates the PV instead of splits it. This would keep pulses, waves of cold into the CONUS and keep Canada very cold. Time will tell. From Mike Ventrice

NAO looks to be Negative = Good Sign


AO looks to be Negative = Good Sign


EPO looks to go positive = Mal


PNA is going Negative = Mal x2


End of the run looks to be warming up BUT the N NAO may just keep rolling over the top and pushing the Trough over AK more to the Aleutian's and..... it 13 days away so lot of time. There will be a chance next week for a storm and maybe another 2 after that as the longitutidonal wavelengths shorten as we head into the winter solstice.


We have a Strat warming that could take effect later Dec and have effects mid January.

Winds are declining rapidly as well


Lastly, we have Jupiter and Saturn to align in December to create 'Christmas Star' for first time in 800 years. For the first time in nearly 800 years, Jupiter and Saturn will align in the winter solstice sky to become what is known as the "Christmas Star". What will this mean for us here on planet Earth?? Who knows but in 1220 it started...the next 4 years this is what occurred that can be researched from that time frame weather wise and tehir were 3 major wars

A cold winter in western Europe / implied parts of Britain. (Easton, in CHMW/Lamb)
A violent northeasterly gale did much damage in London; the exact year/date is uncertain.
Dry. Hot/dry summer in London/South.
A very wet year with much flooding.
A severe winter. (Easton)
Severe Winter (London/South)

If this happens we'll be in good shape for a bulk of winter IMO, that is a big IF!!

amugs wrote:If this happens we'll be in good shape for a bulk of winter IMO, that is a big IF!!

This is going to be key. A split early in the winter would save us from locking into an ugly La Niña pattern. Let’s see what happens

Okay good tele trends the past couple of days saying we have the wonder twins activating for us. Doesn't mean arctic cold but cold enough.

GEFS





PNA Neutral - up from Negative


May cut but good to see the NAO popping up here


When was the last time we had a coast to coast trough?? Anyone?


That a nice NAO block - open window here for multiple waves??


Xmas miracle?? PNA popping, NAO adn AO with a trough in the S


This has trended more troughy and more blocking the past couple of days. Lets keep an eye on this period. I am going to try my Winter Weenie Darnest to bring us some white gold goods for the holiday!

EPS say hello for the same time frame

amugs wrote:Okay good tele trends the past couple of days saying we have the wonder twins activating for us. Doesn't mean arctic cold but cold enough.

GEFS





PNA Neutral - up from Negative


May cut but good to see the NAO popping up here


When was the last time we had a coast to coast trough?? Anyone?


That a nice NAO block - open window here for multiple waves??


Xmas miracle?? PNA popping, NAO adn AO with a trough in the S


This has trended more troughy and more blocking the past couple of days. Lets keep an eye on this period. I am going to try my Winter Weenie Darnest to bring us some white gold goods for the holiday!

EPS say hello for the same time frame

Just quickly looking I definitely think there can be a couple of chances next week beginning with Monday Tuesday time frame. As we head deeper into Dec and esp into Jan these marginal temp events will get more and more favorable due to climatology on our side. For now monitor 500 for Monday Tuesday.

Next Wednesday - Belly under Bowling Ball - send this through the Lower Ohio Valley and then to the Va Capes (Wishful thinking BUT not out the realm)


As per SROC - we get a shortening of teh wavelengths so things can get tricky for models to pick up on this transition.

From Dr Cohen - we have a strat warming to help knock around the PV?? Could very well be

When was the last time you saw low anomaly heights span the entire country?



The GEFS keep the -NAO in place through Christmas



If the GEFS are also correct in popping the ridge out west, this could get verrrrry interesting.

EURO splits the PV wowza!!!

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1336757629612421124?s=20

Canadian has a big snowstorm next week.

amugs wrote:EURO splits the PV wowza!!!

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1336757629612421124?s=20

WOW!!!!!!!!!!!

Frank_Wx wrote:

amugs wrote:EURO splits the PV wowza!!!

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1336757629612421124?s=20

WOW!!!!!!!!!!!

If the strat ends up spliting like is being depicted on all of the 12z runs today then its def game on.  That said the long range forcast has a way of tempering itself so I am tempering expectations at the moment.  I worry this is just another head fake.




That said there has been a wave 1 attack underway. The true results of which are likely not completely modeled correctly just yet. Mugsy has posted a diff map showing the warming as well.

Okay this is what we maybe seeing again as i have rsearched today and chime in Ray, Frank, SROC, Heehaw, Billings, Algae and anyone else
Eric Webb has posted
Unlike many -NAO/+EPOs, the one that's showing up in the longer term might have easier access to Arctic air if the -NAO hangs around past mid-December.

A -WPO this week will seed Alaska & NW Canada w/ cold air from NE Siberia, the coldest place in the N hem during boreal winter

These maps are very encouraging
WPO that would pump and drive teh Siberian express into CANADA and then into the CONUS. Freeze Canada and I'll take my chances!






Peeps this is extremely encouraging and you can see the freezer in AK and into Western Canada - that flow is good sign.

EURO
AO Diving Negative


NAO as well


PNA hanging around Neutral


GEFS says I', lock in step with you EURO
AO


NAO


PNA - N to Positive = even better


EURO - XMAS EVE - A good look overall look with the AO and NAO block and PNA rising


GEFS says BOOM BOOM - LOL I know 15 days out but it is a good look

Let’s hope this plays out, we are due! Very exciting pattern developing IMO

12z gfs is on board

Looks like we have a chance

Although week-out snowfall maps usually belong in banter, I thought we could all use some 2020 colorful hope since it’s been a real stinker of a year and 84 years since we’ve seen a good snowstorm in NYC metro.

Pattern next week is RIPE.

SoulSingMG wrote:Although week-out snowfall maps usually belong in banter, I thought we could all use some 2020 colorful hope since it’s been a real stinker of a year and 84 years since we’ve seen a good snowstorm in NYC metro.

Pattern next week is RIPE.

Hell, I'll take half of what my area is colored for on that map!

Euro on board

When both the Euro and GFS are showing a major snowstorm inside of 7 days, I definitely take notice. Because those boys don't agree on anything anymore.

We are 6 days out yes it looks good with agreement we are seeing but we need the pac to cooperate lets hope so

get me to Sunday