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Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Dec 04, 2020 3:23 pm

I am seeing one pretty big and disturbing trend in the long range. The trop polar vortex, or a piece of it, is trying to move toward Alaska and stay there. A TPV over Alaska = very bad news for seeing colder than normal weather in our area. We'll see if it comes to fruition or not. Here is one analog I saw thrown around today, January 2012.

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 6 Eoau7WBXcAABi5b?format=png&name=large

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Post by Math23x7 Fri Dec 04, 2020 3:52 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:I am seeing one pretty big and disturbing trend in the long range. The trop polar vortex, or a piece of it, is trying to move toward Alaska and stay there. A TPV over Alaska = very bad news for seeing colder than normal weather in our area. We'll see if it comes to fruition or not. Here is one analog I saw thrown around today, January 2012.

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 6 Eoau7WBXcAABi5b?format=png&name=large

NOAA seems to be picking up on that as well:

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 6 Week3t11

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Post by amugs Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:28 am

Strat Warming Event albeit not strong extends from Dec through early January - wildcard of course but interesting to see how this plays out. I'd rather a weak Strat event that couples with the troposphere and elongates the PV instead of splits it. This would keep pulses, waves of cold into the CONUS and keep Canada very cold. Time will tell. From Mike Ventrice

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 6 EojfoX6XYAEfcJ6?format=jpg&name=medium

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Post by amugs Mon Dec 07, 2020 5:46 pm

NAO looks to be Negative = Good Sign
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 6 1607342400-l3IeFQPcMvE

AO looks to be Negative = Good Sign
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 6 1607342400-bzcnqXvsQwY

EPO looks to go positive = Mal
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 6 1607342400-VLwPTVICso8

PNA is going Negative = Mal x2
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 6 1607342400-MkccU0teW9w

End of the run looks to be warming up BUT the N NAO may just keep rolling over the top and pushing the Trough over AK more to the Aleutian's and..... it 13 days away so lot of time. There will be a chance next week for a storm and maybe another 2 after that as the longitutidonal wavelengths shorten as we head into the winter solstice.
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 6 Ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-1607342400-1607580000-1608638400-40

We have a Strat warming that could take effect later Dec and have effects mid January.
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 6 Eon3YUjWMAAcf19?format=jpg&name=medium
Winds are declining rapidly as well
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 6 377AE0E2-B13B-4464-A675-77EA649FF1D1.png.5b80a3d6263f86ad43f7a313dcf9f74a

Lastly, we have Jupiter and Saturn to align in December to create 'Christmas Star' for first time in 800 years. For the first time in nearly 800 years, Jupiter and Saturn will align in the winter solstice sky to become what is known as the "Christmas Star". What will this mean for us here on planet Earth?? Who knows but in 1220 it started...the next 4 years this is what occurred that can be researched from that time frame weather wise and tehir were 3 major wars

A cold winter in western Europe / implied parts of Britain. (Easton, in CHMW/Lamb)
A violent northeasterly gale did much damage in London; the exact year/date is uncertain.
Dry. Hot/dry summer in London/South.
A very wet year with much flooding.
A severe winter. (Easton)
Severe Winter (London/South)




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Post by amugs Mon Dec 07, 2020 5:51 pm

If this happens we'll be in good shape for a bulk of winter IMO, that is a big IF!!

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 6 EoqeH3IXIAAvUgI?format=png&name=medium

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 07, 2020 8:55 pm

@amugs wrote:If this happens we'll be in good shape for a bulk of winter IMO, that is a big IF!!

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 6 EoqeH3IXIAAvUgI?format=png&name=medium

This is going to be key. A split early in the winter would save us from locking into an ugly La Niña pattern. Let’s see what happens

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Post by amugs Tue Dec 08, 2020 8:34 pm

Okay good tele trends the past couple of days saying we have the wonder twins activating for us. Doesn't mean arctic cold but cold enough.

GEFS

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 6 1607450400-MP9l8pkz3gs

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 6 1607450400-A4uyBYkBexQ

PNA Neutral - up from Negative
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 6 1607450400-RHrEKD8gw00

May cut but good to see the NAO popping up here
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 6 1607947200-qYMeRziq3nw

When was the last time we had a coast to coast trough?? Anyone?
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 6 1608066000-2oSfSsinHNE

That a nice NAO block - open window here for multiple waves??
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 6 1608152400-vFedvlENBVc

Xmas miracle?? PNA popping, NAO adn AO with a trough in the S
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 6 1608832800-1BsdkPNzjxI

This has trended more troughy and more blocking the past couple of days. Lets keep an eye on this period. I am going to try my Winter Weenie Darnest to bring us some white gold goods for the holiday!

EPS say hello for the same time frame
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 6 1608681600-ijhqN2IV6WM

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Post by sroc4 Wed Dec 09, 2020 6:56 am

@amugs wrote:Okay good tele trends the past couple of days saying we have the wonder twins activating for us. Doesn't mean arctic cold but cold enough.

GEFS

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 6 1607450400-MP9l8pkz3gs

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 6 1607450400-A4uyBYkBexQ

PNA Neutral - up from Negative
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 6 1607450400-RHrEKD8gw00

May cut but good to see the NAO popping up here
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 6 1607947200-qYMeRziq3nw

When was the last time we had a coast to coast trough?? Anyone?
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 6 1608066000-2oSfSsinHNE

That a nice NAO block - open window here for multiple waves??
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 6 1608152400-vFedvlENBVc

Xmas miracle?? PNA popping, NAO adn AO with a trough in the S
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 6 1608832800-1BsdkPNzjxI

This has trended more troughy and more blocking the past couple of days. Lets keep an eye on this period. I am going to try my Winter Weenie Darnest to bring us some white gold goods for the holiday!

EPS say hello for the same time frame
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 6 1608681600-ijhqN2IV6WM

Just quickly looking I definitely think there can be a couple of chances next week beginning with Monday Tuesday time frame. As we head deeper into Dec and esp into Jan these marginal temp events will get more and more favorable due to climatology on our side. For now monitor 500 for Monday Tuesday.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by amugs Wed Dec 09, 2020 8:37 am

Next Wednesday - Belly under Bowling Ball - send this through the Lower Ohio Valley and then to the Va Capes (Wishful thinking BUT not out the realm)
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 6 EozEhCzWMAEaGqJ?format=png&name=medium

As per SROC - we get a shortening of teh wavelengths so things can get tricky for models to pick up on this transition.

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Post by amugs Wed Dec 09, 2020 10:28 am

From Dr Cohen - we have a strat warming to help knock around the PV?? Could very well be

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 6 EozWbthWMAUZP_Q?format=png&name=4096x4096

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Dec 09, 2020 10:42 am

When was the last time you saw low anomaly heights span the entire country?

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 6 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_31

The GEFS keep the -NAO in place through Christmas

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 6 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_65

If the GEFS are also correct in popping the ridge out west, this could get verrrrry interesting.

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Post by amugs Wed Dec 09, 2020 3:03 pm

EURO splits the PV wowza!!!

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1336757629612421124?s=20

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 6 1336757629612421124

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Post by nutleyblizzard Wed Dec 09, 2020 3:03 pm

Canadian has a big snowstorm next week.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Dec 09, 2020 3:42 pm

@amugs wrote:EURO splits the PV wowza!!!

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1336757629612421124?s=20

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 6 1336757629612421124

WOW!!!!!!!!!!!

MOG

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Post by sroc4 Wed Dec 09, 2020 6:26 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@amugs wrote:EURO splits the PV wowza!!!

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1336757629612421124?s=20

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 6 1336757629612421124

WOW!!!!!!!!!!!

MOG



If the strat ends up spliting like is being depicted on all of the 12z runs today then its def game on.  That said the long range forcast has a way of tempering itself so I am tempering expectations at the moment.  I worry this is just another head fake.

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 6 Giphy


That said there has been a wave 1 attack underway. The true results of which are likely not completely modeled correctly just yet. Mugsy has posted a diff map showing the warming as well.

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 6 Time_pres_WAVE1_MEAN_OND_NH_2020

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by amugs Wed Dec 09, 2020 7:27 pm

Okay this is what we maybe seeing again as i have rsearched today and chime in Ray, Frank, SROC, Heehaw, Billings, Algae and anyone else
Eric Webb has posted
Unlike many -NAO/+EPOs, the one that's showing up in the longer term might have easier access to Arctic air if the -NAO hangs around past mid-December.

A -WPO this week will seed Alaska & NW Canada w/ cold air from NE Siberia, the coldest place in the N hem during boreal winter

These maps are very encouraging
WPO that would pump and drive teh Siberian express into CANADA and then into the CONUS. Freeze Canada and I'll take my chances!
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 6 EozTeIaXEAEznqq?format=jpg&name=medium

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 6 EozTktqW4AAJYFi?format=jpg&name=medium

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 6 EozT_uOXYAEXFeQ?format=png&name=medium

Peeps this is extremely encouraging and you can see the freezer in AK and into Western Canada - that flow is good sign.

EURO
AO Diving Negative
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 6 1607515200-skC3x3sdanY

NAO as well
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 6 1607515200-dl6XGfZIloM

PNA hanging around Neutral
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 6 1607515200-ROE7LmCzWVc

GEFS says I', lock in step with you EURO
AO
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 6 1607515200-XjoXtaMf5o0

NAO
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 6 1607515200-i30HQVdkfak

PNA - N to Positive = even better
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 6 1607515200-GubkiAiwTWQ

EURO - XMAS EVE - A good look overall look with the AO and NAO block and PNA rising
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 6 1608768000-hAb41Uv0aQk

GEFS says BOOM BOOM - LOL I know 15 days out but it is a good look
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 6 1608854400-CJhL3qm36XE


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Post by Radz Thu Dec 10, 2020 3:07 am

Let’s hope this plays out, we are due! Very exciting pattern developing IMO
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Post by aiannone Thu Dec 10, 2020 11:24 am

12z gfs is on board
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 6 Gfs_re10
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Post by phil155 Thu Dec 10, 2020 11:42 am

Looks like we have a chance Twisted Evil

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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Dec 10, 2020 1:06 pm

Although week-out snowfall maps usually belong in banter, I thought we could all use some 2020 colorful hope since it’s been a real stinker of a year and 84 years since we’ve seen a good snowstorm in NYC metro. Suspect

Pattern next week is RIPE.

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 6 62cd8510
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Post by Irish Thu Dec 10, 2020 1:33 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:Although week-out snowfall maps usually belong in banter, I thought we could all use some 2020 colorful hope since it’s been a real stinker of a year and 84 years since we’ve seen a good snowstorm in NYC metro. Suspect

Pattern next week is RIPE.

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 6 62cd8510

Hell, I'll take half of what my area is colored for on that map!

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Post by nutleyblizzard Thu Dec 10, 2020 2:11 pm

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 6 8f14e510
Euro on board
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Post by billg315 Thu Dec 10, 2020 2:41 pm

When both the Euro and GFS are showing a major snowstorm inside of 7 days, I definitely take notice. Because those boys don't agree on anything anymore.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Dec 10, 2020 2:55 pm

We are 6 days out yes it looks good with agreement we are seeing but we need the pac to cooperate lets hope so
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Post by sroc4 Thu Dec 10, 2020 2:57 pm

get me to Sunday

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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