Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)

amugs wrote:We have a Start Warming event taking place as per the GFS from the EPO heat transport over the Alaska region, longer term colder solution?

So here’s my opinion on any **potential** SSW event, and this was ripped from another discussion with a fellow poster, as well as from a post elsewhere:

“....if we can really get the MJO to gain serious amplitude and propagate SLOWLY through the Maritime Continent, that’s a precursor to a true SSW event with favorable alignment (for our region) thanks to the thermodynamics involved. But, we’d have to both take it on the proverbial chin and deal with another torch of a December and probably first half of January AND THEN hope that it’s enough to seriously weaken the anomalously strong stratospheric vortex in a background/QBO state that lessens the overall receptivity to such perturbation. But I think that would really be our best shot at seeing any prolonged winter regime in the eastern CONUS, and have for some time, as at least conceptually, the conditions are mildly decent for the tropospheric evolution.”

With regard to what is being shown on the GFS Op at hour 384, this will likely continue to be mainly overdone, at least for the foreseeable future unless we get a very impressive tropical forcing response for an extended period (i.e. the MJO/standing wave reach 2-sigma or greater deviation for several weeks). IF I start seeing that, again, it’s PLAUSIBLE that this occurs given the likely positive interference that I think will occur between the standing wave and MJO pulse, but I’m not sure if the verified amplitude will be enough given the pre-existing strength of the PV. That said, ANY positive interference between the tropical convective modes will help to weaken it some if it’s sustained long enough. The question is: Would it be enough to give us hope for prolonged winter weather? Without a true SSW, I honestly don’t think so.

P.S. Yes, my other write up is still in the works - I’ve been forced chip away at it rather than blast it out all at once.

Looking forward to more long range discussions.

Can someone explain what in blue blazes we need to have a sustained -EPO . With the difference of this years IOD(neutral) and now a moderate LA Nina , why can't the tropical forcing give us a sustained -EPO . I know there's no easy answer, but there has to be something that lends for a more likely -EPO

I am seeing one pretty big and disturbing trend in the long range. The trop polar vortex, or a piece of it, is trying to move toward Alaska and stay there. A TPV over Alaska = very bad news for seeing colder than normal weather in our area. We'll see if it comes to fruition or not. Here is one analog I saw thrown around today, January 2012.

Frank_Wx wrote:I am seeing one pretty big and disturbing trend in the long range. The trop polar vortex, or a piece of it, is trying to move toward Alaska and stay there. A TPV over Alaska = very bad news for seeing colder than normal weather in our area. We'll see if it comes to fruition or not. Here is one analog I saw thrown around today, January 2012.

NOAA seems to be picking up on that as well:

amugs wrote:If this happens we'll be in good shape for a bulk of winter IMO, that is a big IF!!

This is going to be key. A split early in the winter would save us from locking into an ugly La Niña pattern. Let’s see what happens

When was the last time you saw low anomaly heights span the entire country?



The GEFS keep the -NAO in place through Christmas



If the GEFS are also correct in popping the ridge out west, this could get verrrrry interesting.

Canadian has a big snowstorm next week.

amugs wrote:EURO splits the PV wowza!!!

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1336757629612421124?s=20

WOW!!!!!!!!!!!

Let’s hope this plays out, we are due! Very exciting pattern developing IMO

12z gfs is on board

Looks like we have a chance

Although week-out snowfall maps usually belong in banter, I thought we could all use some 2020 colorful hope since it’s been a real stinker of a year and 84 years since we’ve seen a good snowstorm in NYC metro.

Pattern next week is RIPE.

SoulSingMG wrote:Although week-out snowfall maps usually belong in banter, I thought we could all use some 2020 colorful hope since it’s been a real stinker of a year and 84 years since we’ve seen a good snowstorm in NYC metro.

Pattern next week is RIPE.

Hell, I'll take half of what my area is colored for on that map!

Euro on board

When both the Euro and GFS are showing a major snowstorm inside of 7 days, I definitely take notice. Because those boys don't agree on anything anymore.

We are 6 days out yes it looks good with agreement we are seeing but we need the pac to cooperate lets hope so