Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)
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Re: Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)
I am seeing one pretty big and disturbing trend in the long range. The trop polar vortex, or a piece of it, is trying to move toward Alaska and stay there. A TPV over Alaska = very bad news for seeing colder than normal weather in our area. We'll see if it comes to fruition or not. Here is one analog I saw thrown around today, January 2012.

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Re: Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)
@Frank_Wx wrote:I am seeing one pretty big and disturbing trend in the long range. The trop polar vortex, or a piece of it, is trying to move toward Alaska and stay there. A TPV over Alaska = very bad news for seeing colder than normal weather in our area. We'll see if it comes to fruition or not. Here is one analog I saw thrown around today, January 2012.
NOAA seems to be picking up on that as well:

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Re: Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)
Strat Warming Event albeit not strong extends from Dec through early January - wildcard of course but interesting to see how this plays out. I'd rather a weak Strat event that couples with the troposphere and elongates the PV instead of splits it. This would keep pulses, waves of cold into the CONUS and keep Canada very cold. Time will tell. From Mike Ventrice

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Re: Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)
NAO looks to be Negative = Good Sign

AO looks to be Negative = Good Sign

EPO looks to go positive = Mal

PNA is going Negative = Mal x2

End of the run looks to be warming up BUT the N NAO may just keep rolling over the top and pushing the Trough over AK more to the Aleutian's and..... it 13 days away so lot of time. There will be a chance next week for a storm and maybe another 2 after that as the longitutidonal wavelengths shorten as we head into the winter solstice.

We have a Strat warming that could take effect later Dec and have effects mid January.

Winds are declining rapidly as well

Lastly, we have Jupiter and Saturn to align in December to create 'Christmas Star' for first time in 800 years. For the first time in nearly 800 years, Jupiter and Saturn will align in the winter solstice sky to become what is known as the "Christmas Star". What will this mean for us here on planet Earth?? Who knows but in 1220 it started...the next 4 years this is what occurred that can be researched from that time frame weather wise and tehir were 3 major wars
A cold winter in western Europe / implied parts of Britain. (Easton, in CHMW/Lamb)
A violent northeasterly gale did much damage in London; the exact year/date is uncertain.
Dry. Hot/dry summer in London/South.
A very wet year with much flooding.
A severe winter. (Easton)
Severe Winter (London/South)

AO looks to be Negative = Good Sign

EPO looks to go positive = Mal

PNA is going Negative = Mal x2

End of the run looks to be warming up BUT the N NAO may just keep rolling over the top and pushing the Trough over AK more to the Aleutian's and..... it 13 days away so lot of time. There will be a chance next week for a storm and maybe another 2 after that as the longitutidonal wavelengths shorten as we head into the winter solstice.

We have a Strat warming that could take effect later Dec and have effects mid January.
Winds are declining rapidly as well

Lastly, we have Jupiter and Saturn to align in December to create 'Christmas Star' for first time in 800 years. For the first time in nearly 800 years, Jupiter and Saturn will align in the winter solstice sky to become what is known as the "Christmas Star". What will this mean for us here on planet Earth?? Who knows but in 1220 it started...the next 4 years this is what occurred that can be researched from that time frame weather wise and tehir were 3 major wars
A cold winter in western Europe / implied parts of Britain. (Easton, in CHMW/Lamb)
A violent northeasterly gale did much damage in London; the exact year/date is uncertain.
Dry. Hot/dry summer in London/South.
A very wet year with much flooding.
A severe winter. (Easton)
Severe Winter (London/South)
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Re: Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)
If this happens we'll be in good shape for a bulk of winter IMO, that is a big IF!!

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Re: Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)
This is going to be key. A split early in the winter would save us from locking into an ugly La Niña pattern. Let’s see what happens
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Re: Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)
Okay good tele trends the past couple of days saying we have the wonder twins activating for us. Doesn't mean arctic cold but cold enough.
GEFS


PNA Neutral - up from Negative

May cut but good to see the NAO popping up here

When was the last time we had a coast to coast trough?? Anyone?

That a nice NAO block - open window here for multiple waves??

Xmas miracle?? PNA popping, NAO adn AO with a trough in the S

This has trended more troughy and more blocking the past couple of days. Lets keep an eye on this period. I am going to try my Winter Weenie Darnest to bring us some white gold goods for the holiday!
EPS say hello for the same time frame

GEFS


PNA Neutral - up from Negative

May cut but good to see the NAO popping up here

When was the last time we had a coast to coast trough?? Anyone?

That a nice NAO block - open window here for multiple waves??

Xmas miracle?? PNA popping, NAO adn AO with a trough in the S

This has trended more troughy and more blocking the past couple of days. Lets keep an eye on this period. I am going to try my Winter Weenie Darnest to bring us some white gold goods for the holiday!
EPS say hello for the same time frame

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Re: Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)
@amugs wrote:Okay good tele trends the past couple of days saying we have the wonder twins activating for us. Doesn't mean arctic cold but cold enough.
GEFS
PNA Neutral - up from Negative
May cut but good to see the NAO popping up here
When was the last time we had a coast to coast trough?? Anyone?
That a nice NAO block - open window here for multiple waves??
Xmas miracle?? PNA popping, NAO adn AO with a trough in the S
This has trended more troughy and more blocking the past couple of days. Lets keep an eye on this period. I am going to try my Winter Weenie Darnest to bring us some white gold goods for the holiday!
EPS say hello for the same time frame
Just quickly looking I definitely think there can be a couple of chances next week beginning with Monday Tuesday time frame. As we head deeper into Dec and esp into Jan these marginal temp events will get more and more favorable due to climatology on our side. For now monitor 500 for Monday Tuesday.
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Dec 16th/17th 7.25"[/size]
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Re: Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)
Next Wednesday - Belly under Bowling Ball - send this through the Lower Ohio Valley and then to the Va Capes (Wishful thinking BUT not out the realm)

As per SROC - we get a shortening of teh wavelengths so things can get tricky for models to pick up on this transition.
As per SROC - we get a shortening of teh wavelengths so things can get tricky for models to pick up on this transition.
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Re: Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)
From Dr Cohen - we have a strat warming to help knock around the PV?? Could very well be

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Re: Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)
When was the last time you saw low anomaly heights span the entire country?

The GEFS keep the -NAO in place through Christmas

If the GEFS are also correct in popping the ridge out west, this could get verrrrry interesting.

The GEFS keep the -NAO in place through Christmas

If the GEFS are also correct in popping the ridge out west, this could get verrrrry interesting.
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Re: Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)
EURO splits the PV wowza!!!
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1336757629612421124?s=20

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1336757629612421124?s=20
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Re: Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)
Canadian has a big snowstorm next week.
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Re: Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)
@amugs wrote:EURO splits the PV wowza!!!
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1336757629612421124?s=20
WOW!!!!!!!!!!!

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Re: Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)
If the strat ends up spliting like is being depicted on all of the 12z runs today then its def game on. That said the long range forcast has a way of tempering itself so I am tempering expectations at the moment. I worry this is just another head fake.

That said there has been a wave 1 attack underway. The true results of which are likely not completely modeled correctly just yet. Mugsy has posted a diff map showing the warming as well.

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS 35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
WINTER 2020/2021 SNOW TOTALS 7.25"(First snow Dec 16th/17th)
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"[/size]
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Re: Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)
Okay this is what we maybe seeing again as i have rsearched today and chime in Ray, Frank, SROC, Heehaw, Billings, Algae and anyone else
Eric Webb has posted
Unlike many -NAO/+EPOs, the one that's showing up in the longer term might have easier access to Arctic air if the -NAO hangs around past mid-December.
A -WPO this week will seed Alaska & NW Canada w/ cold air from NE Siberia, the coldest place in the N hem during boreal winter
These maps are very encouraging
WPO that would pump and drive teh Siberian express into CANADA and then into the CONUS. Freeze Canada and I'll take my chances!



Peeps this is extremely encouraging and you can see the freezer in AK and into Western Canada - that flow is good sign.
EURO
AO Diving Negative

NAO as well

PNA hanging around Neutral

GEFS says I', lock in step with you EURO
AO

NAO

PNA - N to Positive = even better

EURO - XMAS EVE - A good look overall look with the AO and NAO block and PNA rising

GEFS says BOOM BOOM - LOL I know 15 days out but it is a good look

Eric Webb has posted
Unlike many -NAO/+EPOs, the one that's showing up in the longer term might have easier access to Arctic air if the -NAO hangs around past mid-December.
A -WPO this week will seed Alaska & NW Canada w/ cold air from NE Siberia, the coldest place in the N hem during boreal winter
These maps are very encouraging
WPO that would pump and drive teh Siberian express into CANADA and then into the CONUS. Freeze Canada and I'll take my chances!
Peeps this is extremely encouraging and you can see the freezer in AK and into Western Canada - that flow is good sign.
EURO
AO Diving Negative

NAO as well

PNA hanging around Neutral

GEFS says I', lock in step with you EURO
AO

NAO

PNA - N to Positive = even better

EURO - XMAS EVE - A good look overall look with the AO and NAO block and PNA rising

GEFS says BOOM BOOM - LOL I know 15 days out but it is a good look

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Re: Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)
Let’s hope this plays out, we are due! Very exciting pattern developing IMO
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Re: Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)
Looks like we have a chance

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Re: Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)
@SoulSingMG wrote:Although week-out snowfall maps usually belong in banter, I thought we could all use some 2020 colorful hope since it’s been a real stinker of a year and 84 years since we’ve seen a good snowstorm in NYC metro.![]()
Pattern next week is RIPE.
Hell, I'll take half of what my area is colored for on that map!
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Re: Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)
When both the Euro and GFS are showing a major snowstorm inside of 7 days, I definitely take notice. Because those boys don't agree on anything anymore.
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Re: Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)
We are 6 days out yes it looks good with agreement we are seeing but we need the pac to cooperate lets hope so
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Re: Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)
get me to Sunday
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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS 35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
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WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
WINTER 2020/2021 SNOW TOTALS 7.25"(First snow Dec 16th/17th)
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"[/size]
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