Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)
+43
toople
TheAresian
Koroptim
Bkdude
essexcountypete
chief7
GreyBeard
crippo84
hyde345
lglickman1
Zhukov1945
bloc1357
SENJsnowman
Snow88
CPcantmeasuresnow
bobjohnsonforthehall
weatherwatchermom
skinsfan1177
billg315
SoulSingMG
phil155
aiannone
nutleyblizzard
Math23x7
Wheezer
Irish
Frank_Wx
mwilli
Grselig
Isotherm
heehaw453
jimv45
frank 638
docstox12
rb924119
sroc4
HectorO
algae888
dkodgis
Radz
jmanley32
amugs
Dunnzoo
47 posters
Page 6 of 30
Page 6 of 30 • 1 ... 5, 6, 7 ... 18 ... 30
Re: Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)
amugs wrote:We have a Start Warming event taking place as per the GFS from the EPO heat transport over the Alaska region, longer term colder solution?
So here’s my opinion on any **potential** SSW event, and this was ripped from another discussion with a fellow poster, as well as from a post elsewhere:
“....if we can really get the MJO to gain serious amplitude and propagate SLOWLY through the Maritime Continent, that’s a precursor to a true SSW event with favorable alignment (for our region) thanks to the thermodynamics involved. But, we’d have to both take it on the proverbial chin and deal with another torch of a December and probably first half of January AND THEN hope that it’s enough to seriously weaken the anomalously strong stratospheric vortex in a background/QBO state that lessens the overall receptivity to such perturbation. But I think that would really be our best shot at seeing any prolonged winter regime in the eastern CONUS, and have for some time, as at least conceptually, the conditions are mildly decent for the tropospheric evolution.”
With regard to what is being shown on the GFS Op at hour 384, this will likely continue to be mainly overdone, at least for the foreseeable future unless we get a very impressive tropical forcing response for an extended period (i.e. the MJO/standing wave reach 2-sigma or greater deviation for several weeks). IF I start seeing that, again, it’s PLAUSIBLE that this occurs given the likely positive interference that I think will occur between the standing wave and MJO pulse, but I’m not sure if the verified amplitude will be enough given the pre-existing strength of the PV. That said, ANY positive interference between the tropical convective modes will help to weaken it some if it’s sustained long enough. The question is: Would it be enough to give us hope for prolonged winter weather? Without a true SSW, I honestly don’t think so.
P.S. Yes, my other write up is still in the works - I’ve been forced chip away at it rather than blast it out all at once.
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 7008
Join date : 2013-02-06
Re: Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)
Looking forward to more long range discussions.
Can someone explain what in blue blazes we need to have a sustained -EPO . With the difference of this years IOD(neutral) and now a moderate LA Nina , why can't the tropical forcing give us a sustained -EPO . I know there's no easy answer, but there has to be something that lends for a more likely -EPO
Can someone explain what in blue blazes we need to have a sustained -EPO . With the difference of this years IOD(neutral) and now a moderate LA Nina , why can't the tropical forcing give us a sustained -EPO . I know there's no easy answer, but there has to be something that lends for a more likely -EPO
Wheezer- Posts : 30
Join date : 2017-11-08
Re: Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)
I am seeing one pretty big and disturbing trend in the long range. The trop polar vortex, or a piece of it, is trying to move toward Alaska and stay there. A TPV over Alaska = very bad news for seeing colder than normal weather in our area. We'll see if it comes to fruition or not. Here is one analog I saw thrown around today, January 2012.
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)
Frank_Wx wrote:I am seeing one pretty big and disturbing trend in the long range. The trop polar vortex, or a piece of it, is trying to move toward Alaska and stay there. A TPV over Alaska = very bad news for seeing colder than normal weather in our area. We'll see if it comes to fruition or not. Here is one analog I saw thrown around today, January 2012.
NOAA seems to be picking up on that as well:
Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
- Posts : 2380
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-08
Re: Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)
Strat Warming Event albeit not strong extends from Dec through early January - wildcard of course but interesting to see how this plays out. I'd rather a weak Strat event that couples with the troposphere and elongates the PV instead of splits it. This would keep pulses, waves of cold into the CONUS and keep Canada very cold. Time will tell. From Mike Ventrice
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15095
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)
NAO looks to be Negative = Good Sign
AO looks to be Negative = Good Sign
EPO looks to go positive = Mal
PNA is going Negative = Mal x2
End of the run looks to be warming up BUT the N NAO may just keep rolling over the top and pushing the Trough over AK more to the Aleutian's and..... it 13 days away so lot of time. There will be a chance next week for a storm and maybe another 2 after that as the longitutidonal wavelengths shorten as we head into the winter solstice.
We have a Strat warming that could take effect later Dec and have effects mid January.
Winds are declining rapidly as well
Lastly, we have Jupiter and Saturn to align in December to create 'Christmas Star' for first time in 800 years. For the first time in nearly 800 years, Jupiter and Saturn will align in the winter solstice sky to become what is known as the "Christmas Star". What will this mean for us here on planet Earth?? Who knows but in 1220 it started...the next 4 years this is what occurred that can be researched from that time frame weather wise and tehir were 3 major wars
A cold winter in western Europe / implied parts of Britain. (Easton, in CHMW/Lamb)
A violent northeasterly gale did much damage in London; the exact year/date is uncertain.
Dry. Hot/dry summer in London/South.
A very wet year with much flooding.
A severe winter. (Easton)
Severe Winter (London/South)
AO looks to be Negative = Good Sign
EPO looks to go positive = Mal
PNA is going Negative = Mal x2
End of the run looks to be warming up BUT the N NAO may just keep rolling over the top and pushing the Trough over AK more to the Aleutian's and..... it 13 days away so lot of time. There will be a chance next week for a storm and maybe another 2 after that as the longitutidonal wavelengths shorten as we head into the winter solstice.
We have a Strat warming that could take effect later Dec and have effects mid January.
Winds are declining rapidly as well
Lastly, we have Jupiter and Saturn to align in December to create 'Christmas Star' for first time in 800 years. For the first time in nearly 800 years, Jupiter and Saturn will align in the winter solstice sky to become what is known as the "Christmas Star". What will this mean for us here on planet Earth?? Who knows but in 1220 it started...the next 4 years this is what occurred that can be researched from that time frame weather wise and tehir were 3 major wars
A cold winter in western Europe / implied parts of Britain. (Easton, in CHMW/Lamb)
A violent northeasterly gale did much damage in London; the exact year/date is uncertain.
Dry. Hot/dry summer in London/South.
A very wet year with much flooding.
A severe winter. (Easton)
Severe Winter (London/South)
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15095
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)
If this happens we'll be in good shape for a bulk of winter IMO, that is a big IF!!
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15095
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)
amugs wrote:If this happens we'll be in good shape for a bulk of winter IMO, that is a big IF!!
This is going to be key. A split early in the winter would save us from locking into an ugly La Niña pattern. Let’s see what happens
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)
Okay good tele trends the past couple of days saying we have the wonder twins activating for us. Doesn't mean arctic cold but cold enough.
GEFS
PNA Neutral - up from Negative
May cut but good to see the NAO popping up here
When was the last time we had a coast to coast trough?? Anyone?
That a nice NAO block - open window here for multiple waves??
Xmas miracle?? PNA popping, NAO adn AO with a trough in the S
This has trended more troughy and more blocking the past couple of days. Lets keep an eye on this period. I am going to try my Winter Weenie Darnest to bring us some white gold goods for the holiday!
EPS say hello for the same time frame
GEFS
PNA Neutral - up from Negative
May cut but good to see the NAO popping up here
When was the last time we had a coast to coast trough?? Anyone?
That a nice NAO block - open window here for multiple waves??
Xmas miracle?? PNA popping, NAO adn AO with a trough in the S
This has trended more troughy and more blocking the past couple of days. Lets keep an eye on this period. I am going to try my Winter Weenie Darnest to bring us some white gold goods for the holiday!
EPS say hello for the same time frame
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15095
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)
amugs wrote:Okay good tele trends the past couple of days saying we have the wonder twins activating for us. Doesn't mean arctic cold but cold enough.
GEFS
PNA Neutral - up from Negative
May cut but good to see the NAO popping up here
When was the last time we had a coast to coast trough?? Anyone?
That a nice NAO block - open window here for multiple waves??
Xmas miracle?? PNA popping, NAO adn AO with a trough in the S
This has trended more troughy and more blocking the past couple of days. Lets keep an eye on this period. I am going to try my Winter Weenie Darnest to bring us some white gold goods for the holiday!
EPS say hello for the same time frame
Just quickly looking I definitely think there can be a couple of chances next week beginning with Monday Tuesday time frame. As we head deeper into Dec and esp into Jan these marginal temp events will get more and more favorable due to climatology on our side. For now monitor 500 for Monday Tuesday.
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 8411
Reputation : 302
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
Re: Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)
Next Wednesday - Belly under Bowling Ball - send this through the Lower Ohio Valley and then to the Va Capes (Wishful thinking BUT not out the realm)
As per SROC - we get a shortening of teh wavelengths so things can get tricky for models to pick up on this transition.
As per SROC - we get a shortening of teh wavelengths so things can get tricky for models to pick up on this transition.
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15095
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)
From Dr Cohen - we have a strat warming to help knock around the PV?? Could very well be
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15095
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)
When was the last time you saw low anomaly heights span the entire country?
The GEFS keep the -NAO in place through Christmas
If the GEFS are also correct in popping the ridge out west, this could get verrrrry interesting.
The GEFS keep the -NAO in place through Christmas
If the GEFS are also correct in popping the ridge out west, this could get verrrrry interesting.
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)
EURO splits the PV wowza!!!
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1336757629612421124?s=20
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1336757629612421124?s=20
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15095
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)
Canadian has a big snowstorm next week.
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1960
Reputation : 41
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 58
Location : Nutley, new jersey
Re: Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)
amugs wrote:EURO splits the PV wowza!!!
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1336757629612421124?s=20
WOW!!!!!!!!!!!
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)
Frank_Wx wrote:amugs wrote:EURO splits the PV wowza!!!
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1336757629612421124?s=20
WOW!!!!!!!!!!!
If the strat ends up spliting like is being depicted on all of the 12z runs today then its def game on. That said the long range forcast has a way of tempering itself so I am tempering expectations at the moment. I worry this is just another head fake.
That said there has been a wave 1 attack underway. The true results of which are likely not completely modeled correctly just yet. Mugsy has posted a diff map showing the warming as well.
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 8411
Reputation : 302
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
Re: Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)
Okay this is what we maybe seeing again as i have rsearched today and chime in Ray, Frank, SROC, Heehaw, Billings, Algae and anyone else
Eric Webb has posted
Unlike many -NAO/+EPOs, the one that's showing up in the longer term might have easier access to Arctic air if the -NAO hangs around past mid-December.
A -WPO this week will seed Alaska & NW Canada w/ cold air from NE Siberia, the coldest place in the N hem during boreal winter
These maps are very encouraging
WPO that would pump and drive teh Siberian express into CANADA and then into the CONUS. Freeze Canada and I'll take my chances!
Peeps this is extremely encouraging and you can see the freezer in AK and into Western Canada - that flow is good sign.
EURO
AO Diving Negative
NAO as well
PNA hanging around Neutral
GEFS says I', lock in step with you EURO
AO
NAO
PNA - N to Positive = even better
EURO - XMAS EVE - A good look overall look with the AO and NAO block and PNA rising
GEFS says BOOM BOOM - LOL I know 15 days out but it is a good look
Eric Webb has posted
Unlike many -NAO/+EPOs, the one that's showing up in the longer term might have easier access to Arctic air if the -NAO hangs around past mid-December.
A -WPO this week will seed Alaska & NW Canada w/ cold air from NE Siberia, the coldest place in the N hem during boreal winter
These maps are very encouraging
WPO that would pump and drive teh Siberian express into CANADA and then into the CONUS. Freeze Canada and I'll take my chances!
Peeps this is extremely encouraging and you can see the freezer in AK and into Western Canada - that flow is good sign.
EURO
AO Diving Negative
NAO as well
PNA hanging around Neutral
GEFS says I', lock in step with you EURO
AO
NAO
PNA - N to Positive = even better
EURO - XMAS EVE - A good look overall look with the AO and NAO block and PNA rising
GEFS says BOOM BOOM - LOL I know 15 days out but it is a good look
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15095
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)
Let’s hope this plays out, we are due! Very exciting pattern developing IMO
Radz- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 1028
Reputation : 17
Join date : 2013-01-12
Location : Cortlandt Manor NY
aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
- Posts : 4820
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)
Re: Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)
Looks like we have a chance
phil155- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 490
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2019-12-16
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2853
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY
SENJsnowman likes this post
Re: Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)
Hell, I'll take half of what my area is colored for on that map!
Irish- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 788
Reputation : 19
Join date : 2019-01-16
Age : 45
Location : Old Bridge, NJ
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1960
Reputation : 41
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 58
Location : Nutley, new jersey
Re: Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)
When both the Euro and GFS are showing a major snowstorm inside of 7 days, I definitely take notice. Because those boys don't agree on anything anymore.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 4524
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ
Re: Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)
We are 6 days out yes it looks good with agreement we are seeing but we need the pac to cooperate lets hope so
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 4485
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 46
Location : Point Pleasant Boro
Re: Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)
get me to Sunday
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 8411
Reputation : 302
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
Page 6 of 30 • 1 ... 5, 6, 7 ... 18 ... 30
Page 6 of 30
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
|
|