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Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)

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Post by Dunnzoo on Fri Oct 09, 2020 5:35 pm

Ready, set, go!

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Janet

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020      8.5"

Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by amugs on Sat Oct 10, 2020 10:05 am

POST #2
AO LR on EURO
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) Ecmwf_weeklies_all2_avg_ao_box_2115200(1)

GEFS
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) 1602201600-LF48C3nqtP0

NEW GEFS EXTENDED
EPO - WOOP WOOP - neutral to Negative allows for cooler conditions and colder conditions to enter from teh arctic into the Central and Eastern US

EURO WEEKLEIS says I concur but ia m slightly positive
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) 1602115200-Y540gN8PTW0
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) 1602201600-MXGmc92mnng

PNA GEFS Keeps it positive
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) 1602201600-TKKJVnCN04o

SUN SOLAR HIT 200 SPOTLESS DAYS!!! The two new solar sunspots are very weak and one doesn't even have dark spots but has the polarity so they are classifying them as sunspots. This si 5-6th time this year they have done this. I call BS.

Daily Sun: 10 Oct 20

Sunspots AR2774 and AR2775 belong to new Solar Cycle 25, but they are small and pose no threat for strong solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI

Sunspot number: 24
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 10 Oct 2020

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2020 total: 203 days (72%)
2019 total: 281 days (77%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)

2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)
Updated 10 Oct 2020

We'll see who is better and more right in late Oct and then mid Nov!!

This means cooler, colder weather shots. Below Normal temps overall.

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Dunnzoo on Mon Oct 12, 2020 9:43 am

Wowzer but still pretty far out there. Of course I'll be in NYC for hubby's surgery!  

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) Gfs_ms11

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Janet

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020      8.5"

Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 13, 2020 12:44 am

@Dunnzoo wrote:Wowzer but still pretty far out there. Of course I'll be in NYC for hubby's surgery!  

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) Gfs_ms11
Yeah thats the morph of the hurricane from down south, whatever the "E" name is. Note the date and the size of that storm, hopefully not another Sandy, originates from the same place too...I highely doubt any kind of sandy turn but might be following a big storm come mid next week. (Fl looks in for it on many runs)
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Post by Radz on Tue Oct 13, 2020 7:21 am

Just read an article about the recently formed polar vortex being historically weak for this time of year, coupled with a weak La Niña, could spell an early active winter like December- fingers crossed! Maybe 2020 will deliver some good news for us winter weather weanies! Yeah I know it’s only October 😂
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Post by amugs on Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:31 pm

Looks much better than last winter so far if it is right

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) DJF21_NAm_tmp

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) DJF21_NAm_pcp

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AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs on Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:06 pm

Snow growth building in the arctic and siberia - nicely

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) Oct_5t10
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) Octobe10

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Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs on Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:05 am

GFS honking on a storm for days now the week of the 25th, if the set up is correct it could be very interesting coastal.
Hybrid Coastal off the coast
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) 1603735200-hXfTYKwpc1I

Spawns the backside Coastal

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) 1603800000-kEw8xHezOfw

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs on Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:08 am

THIS WOUDL SHOCK PEEPS - FROST AND FREEZE to the GULF COAST - IF its true
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) Gfs_z500a_us_46

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs on Mon Oct 19, 2020 8:21 pm

@amugs wrote:THIS WOUDL SHOCK PEEPS - FROST AND FREEZE to the GULF COAST - IF its true
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) Gfs_z500a_us_46

That rough has been delayed a couple of days but still on the maps.
This is a very interesting to see. WE are in a weak Nina, with a westerly QBO and look at the winters with those 2 factors over the past 20 years. Doesn't mean cold winter is a lock but raises a brow for sure:

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) Ekuq2A8WkAAnfet?format=jpg&name=medium

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Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs on Tue Oct 20, 2020 9:53 pm

The Ural HP over the arctic looks to be kicking in and this is usually a sign of a Nina state. Question is how long will it be around? And Siberia Snow cover has come on like Seabiscuit vs Man O War!!
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) 20201011
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) 20201012
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) 20201012

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by dkodgis on Sat Oct 24, 2020 10:14 am

For the visual among us when it comes to snow covers here there everywhere

https://www.eldoradoweather.com/snow-ice-cover.html
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