Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)

Came into this thread to see what Mr.Long Range, our amazing Mugsy, has on tap.Lot's of interesting stuff Mugs.You brought this one home, let's try for a little Christmas surprise to freshen the snow pack!

Hey, that brings back a memory from when I was a kid....Mugsy should be The Long Ranger,LOL.

Thanks peeps, as I said before and with the grace of the almighty, besides Frank of course, I am putting in a word with Big Momma!! Trying here but I believe if we can get Monday then that can help set up Xmas Eve. Lots of time and even on my bday I am working it peeps!!
Let's enjoy what we have so far and I can see a PV elongation in my crystal ball for a wave 1 and 2 knock around and the culmination of low solar along with numerous VEI 3 and a couple of borderline 4 explosions these past couple of years. Time will tell.
@ Doc - never forget our car ride discussion to the city for our 1st meet up. Need ro do a gtg at Kinchleys with whomever is available with the northern crew CP, Zoo etc. Before Murphys law shuts us down for ......?

amugs wrote:Thanks peeps, as I said before and with the grace of the almighty, besides Frank of course, I am putting in a word with Big Momma!! Trying here but I believe if we can get Monday then that can help set up Xmas Eve. Lots of time and even on my bday I am working it peeps!!
Let's enjoy what we have so far and I can see a PV elongation in my crystal ball for a wave 1 and 2 knock around and the culmination of low solar along with numerous VEI 3 and a couple of borderline 4 explosions these past couple of years. Time will tell.
@ Doc - never forget our car ride discussion to the city for our 1st meet up. Need ro do a gtg at Kinchleys with whomever is available with the northern crew  CP, Zoo etc. Before Murphys law shuts us down for ......?

Best thin crust. Used to go there when I was in Mahwah.

Yes Greaslig!!
Okay a coupling in SSW event?? Looks like it for January peeps = game changer if not a head fake!

The maps above mean a colder stormier pattern

amugs wrote:Thanks peeps, as I said before and with the grace of the almighty, besides Frank of course, I am putting in a word with Big Momma!! Trying here but I believe if we can get Monday then that can help set up Xmas Eve. Lots of time and even on my bday I am working it peeps!!
Let's enjoy what we have so far and I can see a PV elongation in my crystal ball for a wave 1 and 2 knock around and the culmination of low solar along with numerous VEI 3 and a couple of borderline 4 explosions these past couple of years. Time will tell.
@ Doc - never forget our car ride discussion to the city for our 1st meet up. Need ro do a gtg at Kinchleys with whomever is available with the northern crew  CP, Zoo etc. Before Murphys law shuts us down for ......?

Never will forget that car ride discussion my paisan! We know where we are going! Anyhoo, that north crew wing ding at Kinchley's one day sounds great.

Great work on the long range thread, always exciting to see what big Momma has cooking for the next few weeks.All the best your Pal Doc.

The anafront on the models for Christmas is going to be interesting to track. Places can go from very warm to flash freezes with snow as the low comes up the front.

Too early to say where the low will travel.

Snow88 wrote:The anafront on the models for Christmas is going to be interesting to track. Places can go from very warm to flash freezes with snow as the low comes up the front.

Too early to say where the low will travel.

AN....TONEEEEEEEEEE!! You have come back paisan! Good to see you here. again.
Yes it is going to be very strong ala 2013 - remember that we went from what 70* to 20's and a heavy snow squall on teh front that laid down about .5 of white gold. We need to see what this Sunday system does before we look ahead my man. One step, one storm at a time but exciting to see the possibility of snow on Xmas. GFS says EPA, NY STATE and WNJ could see a few inches and as you get to the coastal plain much less.

WHOA! Could get very interesting the last week of Dec into Early Jan!!

Things can get interesting in a hurry when stuff starts moving backwards in the North Atlantic pic.twitter.com/whKkTrn6bR

— griteater (@griteater) December 18, 2020

amugs wrote:

Snow88 wrote:The anafront on the models for Christmas is going to be interesting to track. Places can go from very warm to flash freezes with snow as the low comes up the front.

Too early to say where the low will travel.

AN....TONEEEEEEEEEE!! You have come back paisan! Good to see you here. again.
Yes it is going to be very strong ala 2013 - remember that we went from what 70* to 20's and a heavy snow squall on teh front that laid down about .5 of white gold. We need to see what this Sunday system does before we look ahead my man. One step, one storm at a time but exciting to see the possibility of snow on Xmas. GFS says EPA, NY STATE and WNJ could see a few inches and as you get to the coastal plain much less.

The gefs has a more neutral trough which would make the low get picked up by the trough further east.

Snow88 wrote:

amugs wrote:

Snow88 wrote:The anafront on the models for Christmas is going to be interesting to track. Places can go from very warm to flash freezes with snow as the low comes up the front.

Too early to say where the low will travel.

AN....TONEEEEEEEEEE!! You have come back paisan! Good to see you here. again.
Yes it is going to be very strong ala 2013 - remember that we went from what 70* to 20's and a heavy snow squall on teh front that laid down about .5 of white gold. We need to see what this Sunday system does before we look ahead my man. One step, one storm at a time but exciting to see the possibility of snow on Xmas. GFS says EPA, NY STATE and WNJ could see a few inches and as you get to the coastal plain much less.

The gefs has a more neutral trough which would make the low get picked up by the trough further east.

True, but this would also kill the anafrontal precip. These things are FICKLE. It’s actually contrary to what you’d think; in order for these to work, you need a column-deep trough tilting negatively very rapidly within a relatively slow flow in order for the synoptic dynamics and meso-dynamics to constructively interfere. If they work, they can produce pretty impressive snows, as I’ve witnessed 8” from one firsthand back in late November of........2014 or 2015 I believe? But, this is definitely an interesting case, so I want to sit down this weekend and take a look

A potential SSW in the mix and an already -AO oriented troposphere certainly helps out with cold and snowfall possibilities for Europe and the UK. As well as for the Eastern US and Japan.

Graphic: @zd1awrence pic.twitter.com/ZGIkrMv0GX

— Zac (@longrangesnow) December 19, 2020

Xmas eve timeframe looks like a nasty front comes through with high winds

Momma Mia! SSW event  = Stratospheric Warming Event in teh making bigly which would do lots of damage to the PV (Polar Vortex) and disrupt maybe even split it!!

XMAS threat on the table

Xmas week - a retrograding Block - HUMINA!!!

A trend to watch very closely is when blocking starts moving backwards in the North Atlantic.

As we trend closer to the #Christmas period the EPS is realizing the blocking further west/stronger each run.

This can make for a big winter storm and only takes 1 run to flip. pic.twitter.com/Ed7uB2gZff

— BAMWX (@bamwxcom) December 19, 2020

Twitter verse including some big names starting to get excited!! I’m a die hard weenie! Come on coast- it just takes one and we can do this!!!

amugs wrote:

We don’t want to see these positives trend stronger. This means the WAR pumping air via subtropical source region ahead of the mean long wave trough. We want to see those positives trend weaker and a split flow develop.

New GFS  has 80+ gusts for NYC



Wicked front



From 50s and 60s to 20s on Christmas Day

Snow88 wrote:New GFS  has 80+ gusts for NYC



Wicked front



From 50s and 60s to 20s on Christmas Day

Nothing like high winds with warm temps and rain to eat a snowpack over night.

This F'n Christmas Eve storm is depressing me already and it's still 5 days away.

I know it’s one Euro Op run, but its Day-10 depiction brings one storm to mind, and Cp, you might like it.......remember Stella?

Don’t know if the pattern supports it or not (my gut would say no still), but I’ll diagnose that later this weekend. Just at quick glance, though, it caught my attention.

HOLY CRAP

12z Day-10 Euro Op forecast 500mb anomalies from today:



Two days before Stella:

Watch December 30th to January 5th

Looks like another block north of us will develop in part due to the SSW event Mugs has posted about. On top of that, the Pacific looks a little better. Not as many waves crashing into the west coast as the PNA ridge tries to go poleward. Let’s see if this pattern gets delayed until the middle of January or if the New Years time frame is legit.

Frank_Wx wrote:Watch December 30th to January 5th

Looks like another block north of us will develop in part due to the SSW event Mugs has posted about. On top of that, the Pacific looks a little better. Not as many waves crashing into the west coast as the PNA ridge tries to go poleward. Let’s see if this pattern gets delayed until the middle of January or if the New Years time frame is legit.

Euro and GFS has a storm in the 26th -30th period.

Very stormy times ahead with the LA Nina dying.

Snow88 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Watch December 30th to January 5th

Looks like another block north of us will develop in part due to the SSW event Mugs has posted about. On top of that, the Pacific looks a little better. Not as many waves crashing into the west coast as the PNA ridge tries to go poleward. Let’s see if this pattern gets delayed until the middle of January or if the New Years time frame is legit.

Euro and GFS has a storm in the 26th -30th period.

Very stormy times ahead with the LA Nina dying.

Yes that last week of December could be interesting if the below is true based on today's 12Z EPS. One thing seems clear to me right now this is not last year's winter...