DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???
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Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???
Happy Birthday Mugs - Always appreciate your positivity and kindness. You are a fighter and thanks for sharing your knowledge on this site!!! To many many more happy birthdays!!!!
Grselig- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???
weatherwatchermom wrote:Frank_Wx wrote:The 12z EPS fall in line with the OP. Major Godzilla
can I ask..are we worried where that 32* line is in that model?
It's a good question. The answer is yes, however, snowfall rates will overcome surface temps that are above 32*F. Also, the cold at 700mb, 850mb, and 925mb is intense and it will get pulled down to the coast at the height of the storm. Consider the fact we're also in mid-December when sun angle is at one of its lowest peaks. As long as your 850mb-925mb temps stay below freezing, then I think you overcome a slightly warmer surface. That said, I do expect mixing to be an issue along the shore. But how much is the million dollar question.
Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???
Irish wrote:phil155 wrote:Dave Curren on nj12 is saying 12-18 here in Middlesex County and I am just not seeing that type of accumulation (maybe because I don't want to shovel the driveway), still thinking 6-8 and maybe 10. I have no issue admitting I am wrong if the storm really thumps and I will then go have a snowball fight with my kids
Start stretching and getting ready to hurl some snowballs!
I will be ready for sure, I workout every morning so I will be ready to have my kids kick my a$$
phil155- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???
With the caveat of sroc in mind that we shouldn't ride the models run to run . . .
The 18z NAM is a definite significant shift at the surface level. It is bringing the heavier snow totals much further south and east than in the 6z and 12 z runs with less mixing/and virtually no dry slot on this run. Snow totals in excess of one foot almost down to I-195.
The 18z NAM is a definite significant shift at the surface level. It is bringing the heavier snow totals much further south and east than in the 6z and 12 z runs with less mixing/and virtually no dry slot on this run. Snow totals in excess of one foot almost down to I-195.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???
Peeps I mean the colors scheme - maybe it's been too long LOL!CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:amugs wrote:Storm duration is about 16-18 hours peeps -worst is overnight 9-10PM to about 6-7 PM for NNJ and NYC Metro area - blizzard like conditions during that time frame.
I HAVE NEEVR SEEN GODZILLA MODE ON THIS BOARD ......EVERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR!!!!!!!!!!
AND FOR MY BIRTHDAY TOO BOOT ON TURSDAY FOR YA'LL!
How is that possible?
We've had Godzillas before.
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???
The 18z NAM looks completely different from 12z NAM. It now shows a Godzilla for many, eliminating the extreme NW low solution and adjusting SE in response to the confluence/High Pressure to the north. I think it needs one more run to figure out the precip, but at least it's looking in line now with other models in terms of track.
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Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???
It is only one run, but the NAM just took a major jump to be more in line with the GFS and Euro.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???
billg315 wrote:It is only one run, but the NAM just took a major jump to be more in line with the GFS and Euro.
Yes, but its depiction of the precip is not right. I think we need to give the NAM one more run to adjust. It took huge leaps though in terms of where the H7 and H85 lows track.

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Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???
Frank_Wx wrote:billg315 wrote:It is only one run, but the NAM just took a major jump to be more in line with the GFS and Euro.
Yes, but its depiction of the precip is not right. I think we need to give the NAM one more run to adjust. It took huge leaps though in terms of where the H7 and H85 lows track.
Better one

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Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???
Frank_Wx wrote:The 18z NAM looks completely different from 12z NAM. It now shows a Godzilla for many, eliminating the extreme NW low solution and adjusting SE in response to the confluence/High Pressure to the north. I think it needs one more run to figure out the precip, but at least it's looking in line now with other models in terms of track.
Looks like the convection is chasing the pressure drops out ahead of the main low. There should be more precip wrapped around
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
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WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???
Why such a different on the southern PA etc on wxbell than the TT, they both the same snow map but the wxbell leaves almost no snow to the eara TT gives godzilla snows to. I think maybe wxbell map is wonky?Frank_Wx wrote:Frank_Wx wrote:billg315 wrote:It is only one run, but the NAM just took a major jump to be more in line with the GFS and Euro.
Yes, but its depiction of the precip is not right. I think we need to give the NAM one more run to adjust. It took huge leaps though in terms of where the H7 and H85 lows track.
Better one
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???
Frank_Wx wrote:Frank_Wx wrote:billg315 wrote:It is only one run, but the NAM just took a major jump to be more in line with the GFS and Euro.
Yes, but its depiction of the precip is not right. I think we need to give the NAM one more run to adjust. It took huge leaps though in terms of where the H7 and H85 lows track.
Better one
Yeah this is more in line with the 18z NAM snow map I was just looking at.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???
Frank_Wx wrote:Frank_Wx wrote:billg315 wrote:It is only one run, but the NAM just took a major jump to be more in line with the GFS and Euro.
Yes, but its depiction of the precip is not right. I think we need to give the NAM one more run to adjust. It took huge leaps though in terms of where the H7 and H85 lows track.
Better one
The Tidbits map includes skeet, Frank, and there’s a warm layer that gets to I-80 on the 18z and flips to sleet until the 700 and 850 lows pass through with the dry slot. Then it fades.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???
While I totally agree with sroc not to hug the models run to run, and Frank is right that we need another run from the NAM to really start to get it "right", the fact that the NAM was really the only outlier with that horrendous solution this morning and now is coming more in line with the GFS/Euro, is certainly a positive trend, and a hint that it really was off base with its initial outputs earlier today.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???
Winter storm watch just posted for my neck of the woods!
jimv45- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???
rb, on the site I was viewing the 18z NAM on I didn't really see much dry slot at all (compared to earlier runs), and the mixed precip was limited to the southern tier of PA into central NJ near Mercer County and south. Or am I looking at it wrong (which is always possible. lol).
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Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???
rb924119 wrote:Frank_Wx wrote:Frank_Wx wrote:billg315 wrote:It is only one run, but the NAM just took a major jump to be more in line with the GFS and Euro.
Yes, but its depiction of the precip is not right. I think we need to give the NAM one more run to adjust. It took huge leaps though in terms of where the H7 and H85 lows track.
Better one
The Tidbits map includes skeet, Frank, and there’s a warm layer that gets to I-80 on the 18z and flips to sleet until the 700 and 850 lows pass through with the dry slot. Then it fades.
Yes. The main point I wanted to get across is the mid level lows have trended south in consecutive runs on the NAM. Again, with 48 hours to go we can easily see the NNW solutions come back on the models. I don’t doubt it, for all the reason you have laid out, but it’s hard to doubt that block to the north right now. Cold air is literally seeping further south and east on every new model run. The dynamics alone will get some places to 10” of snow in just 6-8 hours.
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Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???
LMAO literall all around upton has WSW, but i guess they decided its go miss us lol, im kidding they always the last ones.
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Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???
There is no way in hell that the one foot line will be near Albany into the Vermont New Hampshire border not with dew points around 0. To + 5. There's going to be a sharp cut off on the Northern Fringe maybe 50 to 60 miles wide you go from one foot to 2 in
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Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???
Jman, to your question about the maps around the SE PA/Philly area, this run of the NAM has a significant period of sleet and freezing rain in the Philly metro area. That would keep their snow totals down, although some spots there showed almost up to .5" of frz.
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Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???
yikes thats a really bad situation if a ice storm unfolds down there, I like where I sit, my area has not been out of 12+ on any of the model runs. Maybe the least 10+.billg315 wrote:Jman, to your question about the maps around the SE PA/Philly area, this run of the NAM has a significant period of sleet and freezing rain in the Philly metro area. That would keep their snow totals down, although some spots there showed almost up to .5" of frz.
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Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???
Omg just as I sent that last post, WINTER STORM WATCH is officially hoisted by Upton!
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Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???
Issued By
New York City - NY, US, National Weather Service
Affected Area
New York City, and western and central Long Island
Description
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Some sleet could mix in late Wednesday night. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 14 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph.
WHERE...New York City, and western and central Long Island.
WHEN...From Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon.
IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday evening and Thursday morning commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
New York City - NY, US, National Weather Service
Affected Area
New York City, and western and central Long Island
Description
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Some sleet could mix in late Wednesday night. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 14 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph.
WHERE...New York City, and western and central Long Island.
WHEN...From Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon.
IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday evening and Thursday morning commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
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jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???
Front genesis much MADONNE!
These deep purples are going to puke snow peeps - like 2-3" per hour rates easily.


These deep purples are going to puke snow peeps - like 2-3" per hour rates easily.


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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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