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DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???

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Post by phil155 on Mon Dec 14, 2020 3:31 pm

@Irish wrote:
@phil155 wrote:Dave Curren on nj12 is saying 12-18 here in Middlesex County and I am just not seeing that type of accumulation (maybe because I don't want to shovel the driveway), still thinking 6-8 and maybe 10. I have no issue admitting I am wrong if the storm really thumps and I will then go have a snowball fight with my kids

Start stretching and getting ready to hurl some snowballs!

I will be ready for sure, I workout every morning so I will be ready to have my kids kick my a$$

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Post by billg315 on Mon Dec 14, 2020 3:31 pm

With the caveat of sroc in mind that we shouldn't ride the models run to run . . .
The 18z NAM is a definite significant shift at the surface level. It is bringing the heavier snow totals much further south and east than in the 6z and 12 z runs with less mixing/and virtually no dry slot on this run. Snow totals in excess of one foot almost down to I-195.
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Post by amugs on Mon Dec 14, 2020 3:31 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@amugs wrote:Storm duration is about 16-18 hours peeps -worst is overnight 9-10PM to about 6-7 PM for NNJ and NYC Metro area - blizzard like conditions during that time frame.

I HAVE NEEVR SEEN GODZILLA MODE ON THIS BOARD ......EVERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR!!!!!!!!!!

AND FOR MY BIRTHDAY TOO BOOT ON TURSDAY FOR YA'LL!

How is that possible?

We've had Godzillas before.
Peeps I mean the colors scheme - maybe it's been too long LOL!

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Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Dec 14, 2020 3:32 pm

The 18z NAM looks completely different from 12z NAM. It now shows a Godzilla for many, eliminating the extreme NW low solution and adjusting SE in response to the confluence/High Pressure to the north. I think it needs one more run to figure out the precip, but at least it's looking in line now with other models in terms of track.

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Post by billg315 on Mon Dec 14, 2020 3:32 pm

It is only one run, but the NAM just took a major jump to be more in line with the GFS and Euro.
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Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Dec 14, 2020 3:36 pm

@billg315 wrote:It is only one run, but the NAM just took a major jump to be more in line with the GFS and Euro.

Yes, but its depiction of the precip is not right. I think we need to give the NAM one more run to adjust. It took huge leaps though in terms of where the H7 and H85 lows track.

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 21 Image.png.d4216143dcdb1f5da27b7abb71dd0720

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Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Dec 14, 2020 3:37 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@billg315 wrote:It is only one run, but the NAM just took a major jump to be more in line with the GFS and Euro.

Yes, but its depiction of the precip is not right. I think we need to give the NAM one more run to adjust. It took huge leaps though in terms of where the H7 and H85 lows track.

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 21 Image.png.d4216143dcdb1f5da27b7abb71dd0720

Better one

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 21 Namconus_asnow_neus_22

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Post by sroc4 on Mon Dec 14, 2020 3:38 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:The 18z NAM looks completely different from 12z NAM. It now shows a Godzilla for many, eliminating the extreme NW low solution and adjusting SE in response to the confluence/High Pressure to the north. I think it needs one more run to figure out the precip, but at least it's looking in line now with other models in terms of track.

Looks like the convection is chasing the pressure drops out ahead of the main low. There should be more precip wrapped around

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
WINTER 2020/2021 SNOW TOTALS 7.25"(First snow Dec 16th/17th)
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"[/size]
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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Dec 14, 2020 3:40 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@billg315 wrote:It is only one run, but the NAM just took a major jump to be more in line with the GFS and Euro.

Yes, but its depiction of the precip is not right. I think we need to give the NAM one more run to adjust. It took huge leaps though in terms of where the H7 and H85 lows track.

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 21 Image.png.d4216143dcdb1f5da27b7abb71dd0720

Better one

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 21 Namconus_asnow_neus_22
Why such a different on the southern PA etc on wxbell than the TT, they both the same snow map but the wxbell leaves almost no snow to the eara TT gives godzilla snows to. I think maybe wxbell map is wonky?
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Post by billg315 on Mon Dec 14, 2020 3:41 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@billg315 wrote:It is only one run, but the NAM just took a major jump to be more in line with the GFS and Euro.

Yes, but its depiction of the precip is not right. I think we need to give the NAM one more run to adjust. It took huge leaps though in terms of where the H7 and H85 lows track.

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 21 Image.png.d4216143dcdb1f5da27b7abb71dd0720

Better one

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 21 Namconus_asnow_neus_22

Yeah this is more in line with the 18z NAM snow map I was just looking at.
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Post by rb924119 on Mon Dec 14, 2020 3:43 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@billg315 wrote:It is only one run, but the NAM just took a major jump to be more in line with the GFS and Euro.

Yes, but its depiction of the precip is not right. I think we need to give the NAM one more run to adjust. It took huge leaps though in terms of where the H7 and H85 lows track.

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 21 Image.png.d4216143dcdb1f5da27b7abb71dd0720

Better one

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 21 Namconus_asnow_neus_22

The Tidbits map includes skeet, Frank, and there’s a warm layer that gets to I-80 on the 18z and flips to sleet until the 700 and 850 lows pass through with the dry slot. Then it fades.

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Post by billg315 on Mon Dec 14, 2020 3:44 pm

While I totally agree with sroc not to hug the models run to run, and Frank is right that we need another run from the NAM to really start to get it "right", the fact that the NAM was really the only outlier with that horrendous solution this morning and now is coming more in line with the GFS/Euro, is certainly a positive trend, and a hint that it really was off base with its initial outputs earlier today.
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Post by jimv45 on Mon Dec 14, 2020 3:47 pm

Winter storm watch just posted for my neck of the woods!

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Post by billg315 on Mon Dec 14, 2020 3:47 pm

rb, on the site I was viewing the 18z NAM on I didn't really see much dry slot at all (compared to earlier runs), and the mixed precip was limited to the southern tier of PA into central NJ near Mercer County and south. Or am I looking at it wrong (which is always possible. lol).
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Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Dec 14, 2020 3:47 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@billg315 wrote:It is only one run, but the NAM just took a major jump to be more in line with the GFS and Euro.

Yes, but its depiction of the precip is not right. I think we need to give the NAM one more run to adjust. It took huge leaps though in terms of where the H7 and H85 lows track.

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 21 Image.png.d4216143dcdb1f5da27b7abb71dd0720

Better one

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 21 Namconus_asnow_neus_22

The Tidbits map includes skeet, Frank, and there’s a warm layer that gets to I-80 on the 18z and flips to sleet until the 700 and 850 lows pass through with the dry slot. Then it fades.

Yes. The main point I wanted to get across is the mid level lows have trended south in consecutive runs on the NAM. Again, with 48 hours to go we can easily see the NNW solutions come back on the models. I don’t doubt it, for all the reason you have laid out, but it’s hard to doubt that block to the north right now. Cold air is literally seeping further south and east on every new model run. The dynamics alone will get some places to 10” of snow in just 6-8 hours.

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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Dec 14, 2020 3:49 pm

LMAO literall all around upton has WSW, but i guess they decided its go miss us lol, im kidding they always the last ones.
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Post by algae888 on Mon Dec 14, 2020 3:52 pm

There is no way in hell that the one foot line will be near Albany into the Vermont New Hampshire border not with dew points around 0. To + 5. There's going to be a sharp cut off on the Northern Fringe maybe 50 to 60 miles wide you go from one foot to 2 in
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Post by billg315 on Mon Dec 14, 2020 3:53 pm

Jman, to your question about the maps around the SE PA/Philly area, this run of the NAM has a significant period of sleet and freezing rain in the Philly metro area. That would keep their snow totals down, although some spots there showed almost up to .5" of frz.
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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Dec 14, 2020 3:55 pm

@billg315 wrote:Jman, to your question about the maps around the SE PA/Philly area, this run of the NAM has a significant period of sleet and freezing rain in the Philly metro area. That would keep their snow totals down, although some spots there showed almost up to .5" of frz.
yikes thats a really bad situation if a ice storm unfolds down there, I like where I sit, my area has not been out of 12+ on any of the model runs. Maybe the least 10+.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Mon Dec 14, 2020 4:00 pm

18Z NAM

I'd love it but there's no way this is anywhere close. Toss for now.

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 21 Snku_a10
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Post by SoulSingMG on Mon Dec 14, 2020 4:00 pm

The cruelty of it all.

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 21 2b07d110
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Post by SoulSingMG on Mon Dec 14, 2020 4:01 pm

Omg just as I sent that last post, WINTER STORM WATCH is officially hoisted by Upton!
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Post by aiannone on Mon Dec 14, 2020 4:01 pm

Issued By
New York City - NY, US, National Weather Service
Affected Area
New York City, and western and central Long Island
Description
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Some sleet could mix in late Wednesday night. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 14 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph.

WHERE...New York City, and western and central Long Island.

WHEN...From Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon.

IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday evening and Thursday morning commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Dec 14, 2020 4:03 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:The cruelty of it all.

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 21 2b07d110
LOl I just posted this, and you just then said it was hoisted so ill go look.
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Post by amugs on Mon Dec 14, 2020 4:04 pm

Front genesis much MADONNE!
These deep purples are going to puke snow peeps - like 2-3" per hour rates easily.
DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 21 Namconus_temp_adv_fgen_700_neus_44.png.44d491360e2b30d0ac8634b50394b058

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 21 Namconus_temp_adv_fgen_700_neus_45.png.c4c538d3bf09648ed359c887fa7a0bc6

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