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DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???

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Post by SoulSingMG on Mon Dec 14, 2020 6:03 pm

@bloc1357 wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:
@bloc1357 wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:Holy Smokes.

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 23 Dcecd710

Where did you find this map?? When I go to NWS pages all I find is today's event.

https://www.weather.gov/okx//winter

Interesting....takes me to a completely different page when I click on that link....only shows today not the 16th and 17th

That’s very odd. You should see a Snow Amount Potential page including other maps depicting low-end and high-end amounts. Make sure you click the “probabilistic snowfall forecasts” tab.
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Post by SoulSingMG on Mon Dec 14, 2020 6:42 pm

18z GFS, ICYMI. She purrty, even for LI.

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 23 61d56910
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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Dec 14, 2020 6:56 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:18z GFS, ICYMI. She purrty, even for LI.

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 23 61d56910
your posting the ratio snow that map doesn't verify cut it by almost half.
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Post by amugs on Mon Dec 14, 2020 7:04 pm

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 23 Wpc.jpg.9d0524f1418a40c851051a2e85ef425b

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by SoulSingMG on Mon Dec 14, 2020 7:06 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:18z GFS, ICYMI. She purrty, even for LI.

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 23 61d56910
your posting the ratio snow that map doesn't verify cut it by almost half.

Mmhmm, but the theme is LI staying in the good snows. Euro is running...
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Post by amugs on Mon Dec 14, 2020 7:11 pm

EURO IS A BANGER PEEPS!
DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 23 Ecmwf-deterministic-nyc-snow_24hr_kuchera-8206400-2.png.c5138e2c7ea0b47c0aca9d244ceb9177

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by sroc4 on Mon Dec 14, 2020 7:11 pm

@amugs wrote:EURO IS A BANGER PEEPS!
DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 23 Ecmwf-deterministic-nyc-snow_24hr_kuchera-8206400-2.png.c5138e2c7ea0b47c0aca9d244ceb9177

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 23 471289cde2490c80f60d5e85bcdfb6da

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
WINTER 2020/2021 SNOW TOTALS 7.25"(First snow Dec 16th/17th)
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"[/size]
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Post by amugs on Mon Dec 14, 2020 7:12 pm

Non Crapola
DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 23 Ecmwf-deterministic-nyc-total_snow_10to1-8206400.png.091446c66c178058d4113309f441d918

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs on Mon Dec 14, 2020 7:12 pm

BAZINGA BABY!!!
DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 23 1DA3ECB4-2C02-4DF4-8F07-A5F971E4A22C.png.4c6f134dd1c13a1c19c74a4debce2e29

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by SoulSingMG on Mon Dec 14, 2020 7:15 pm

Euro & GFS, coming into gorgeous alignment. party
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Post by amugs on Mon Dec 14, 2020 7:17 pm

Okay call me crazy but this has the same type of overall look like dare I say Jan. 2016 Blizzard!!! Very similar peeps in the snow distribution.

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by billg315 on Mon Dec 14, 2020 7:18 pm

Really amazing how close the major models have been for so long on this. I mean dating back to last Thursday there was largely big picture agreement on this storm and it has held through the whole weekend. Now the details are coming together on the models as well. The only real outlier this whole time was the NAM this morning and even that came around quickly on the last run (yet to be seen if the positive trend continues in its next run). It seems the last couple years we could never get good model agreement, but this has bucked that trend.
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Post by amugs on Mon Dec 14, 2020 7:21 pm


This a phenomenal look and it has been steady since Friday with this storm overall!

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by billg315 on Mon Dec 14, 2020 7:23 pm

@amugs wrote:Okay call me crazy but this has the same type of overall look like dare I say Jan. 2016 Blizzard!!! Very similar peeps in the snow distribution.

Certainly reminiscent in the forecast amounts. Reminds me a bit of the setup for the January 2016 storm (Jonas? can't remember winter storm names), which also was preceded by a minor storm a couple days before.
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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Dec 14, 2020 7:27 pm

Yikes... widespread power outages?!

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 23 Epoybl10I think the NYC total is low, NWS is saying 12-18.
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Post by jimv45 on Mon Dec 14, 2020 7:30 pm

Still a few days away but Hyde starting to look like we may miss out on the goods, but there time to come back more north!!!!

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Post by crippo84 on Mon Dec 14, 2020 7:39 pm

@amugs wrote:Non Crapola
DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 23 Ecmwf-deterministic-nyc-total_snow_10to1-8206400.png.091446c66c178058d4113309f441d918

What is meant by the Crapola ratio? Clearly higher than 10:1...
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Post by crippo84 on Mon Dec 14, 2020 7:40 pm

@crippo84 wrote:
@amugs wrote:Non Crapola
DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 23 Ecmwf-deterministic-nyc-total_snow_10to1-8206400.png.091446c66c178058d4113309f441d918

What is meant by the Crapola ratio? Clearly higher than 10:1...

Haha and A+ on the code logic to convert to crapola lol
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Post by amugs on Mon Dec 14, 2020 7:43 pm

Non Crapola - on my cell phone - sorry

And this for ya'll rom 33& rain Mike B Met student
DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 23 C920AA00-B732-4C94-BAEF-4B848DC589E4.jpeg.44b7de9a9259b0dcedd7381a1457d1ab

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Dec 14, 2020 7:47 pm

@amugs wrote:Non Crapola - on my cell phone - sorry

And this for ya'll rom 33& rain Mike B Met student
DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 23 C920AA00-B732-4C94-BAEF-4B848DC589E4.jpeg.44b7de9a9259b0dcedd7381a1457d1ab
blizzard warnings I think might go up on Wed. Not b4 winds have be looked at close to storm. Not that it changes snow totals but it's still fun to say hey we got one. My concern is the power. Especially pines. This is supposed be a wet snow right?
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Post by Math23x7 on Mon Dec 14, 2020 7:47 pm

@crippo84 wrote:
@amugs wrote:Non Crapola
DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 23 Ecmwf-deterministic-nyc-total_snow_10to1-8206400.png.091446c66c178058d4113309f441d918

What is meant by the Crapola ratio? Clearly higher than 10:1...

Years ago, Frank put in a feature to auto-correct K-U-C-H-E-R-A to that. He did a similar one for B-O-S-T-O-N for different correction.

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Post by amugs on Mon Dec 14, 2020 8:16 pm

^^^^ Thanks Mikey - I was like wth??
DEEP PURPLE ANYONE?? CP... DOC...GREYBEARD.. DAMION.....JANET...MOM

Snow ratios for this storm as per euro
DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 23 Ecmwf-deterministic-nyc-snow_1hr_10to1-1607968800-1608156000-1608220800-40


EPS MAX Beautiful
DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 23 IMG_20201214_195720.jpg.dedf7f13aa069a9c334a0ab77ddf2bf1


Last edited by amugs on Mon Dec 14, 2020 8:21 pm; edited 1 time in total

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by skinsfan1177 on Mon Dec 14, 2020 8:17 pm

Any first call snow maps
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Post by amugs on Mon Dec 14, 2020 8:19 pm

WIND GUSTS -take 80% I would think thought NEWS TEAM 4 take this verbatim

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 23 Ecmwf-deterministic-nyc-gust_mph-1607968800-1608163200-1608228000-20

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Mon Dec 14, 2020 8:29 pm

@billg315 wrote:
@amugs wrote:Okay call me crazy but this has the same type of overall look like dare I say Jan. 2016 Blizzard!!! Very similar peeps in the snow distribution.

Certainly reminiscent in the forecast amounts. Reminds me a bit of the setup for the January 2016 storm (Jonas? can't remember winter storm names), which also was preceded by a minor storm a couple days before.

The only time in my life I was annoyed getting a foot of snow.
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