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December 14th Wintry Wave

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 12, 2020 8:28 am

It’s officially the start of silly season when two admins of this forum get to create two new storm topics for the same week. Scott took the liberty in starting a topic for Wednesday’s possible BIG storm, but I did not want to overlook the first wave which is forecasted to
hit Monday. This storm is going to act as the 50/50 low for Wednesday’s storm.

December 14th Wintry Wave Gfs_z500_vort_neus_10

500mb heights ahead of this wave are not favorable for cold temps. As you can see, they are rising over the coast which suggests temps being above freezing. The baroclinic zone, or rain/snow line, is likely running thru I-95 or just N&W of there.

December 14th Wintry Wave Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_10

The GFS tries to bring snow all the way down to central NJ and the shore, but it’s important to examine the boundary level temperatures since we’re not currently under a cold air mass. It is a mild weekend, and as shown, heights ahead of the storm are rising. In order to pull the cold air that is to our north down to the coast, we need the storm to intensify and draw those north westerly winds to the coast. A phase is not currently forecasted to occur, therefore keeping this storm on the weaker side and acting more as a “wave” then a big storm.

December 14th Wintry Wave Namconus_z500_vort_neus_46

December 14th Wintry Wave Namconus_uv250_us_45

Nevertheless, the NAM has impressive dynamics that would on paper lead to heavy snowfall falling over portions of this area on Monday. Strong H5 vort energy coupled with a 150Kt jet steak to the north, is a recipe for increased vertical velocity or moderate to heavy snow over areas that will be cold enough.

The last few words of that statement are key: over areas that will be cold enough. 700mb-850mb temps look to be cold for nearly the entire area but the shore and eastern parts of Long Island, however, 925mb temps are very warm. This looks to me like 5-10 inches of show might actually fall but only a few inches is what will actually stick type of event. That may not be the case for those N&W of NYC, but the concern there is you may not get enough precip to fall since the storm is taking a track pretty far south.

I will have a snow map out today in the early evening to better show you my thoughts.


Last edited by Frank_Wx on Sat Dec 12, 2020 10:04 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by amugs Sat Dec 12, 2020 8:54 am

Frank MOMMA MIA my man a Monthrazilla!!
I was seeing a 3" plus but your better at this than me much in this case!!
Those who thought I was crazy when I posted Thursday about this coming N and pattern recognition - now I have the Supreme leaders stamp of approval and ups the ante!!


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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 12, 2020 8:56 am

I think mothrazilla is a premature call on my part for the city and points south, but I do think a 6 inch snowfall is in the cards for some N&W. It’s a pretty intense piece of upper energy! Let’s see what happens today

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Post by amugs Sat Dec 12, 2020 8:59 am

Yes the more this storm gets the better and stronger 50/50 low it makes - for those who do not know what a 50/50 low is:
A low pressure system that parks itself over Newfoundland at 50 degrees both longitude and latitude hence a 50/50 low. This forms a block to the jet stream and the storms the try to come up thus locking them up the coast, slowing them down and causing a CAD signature pf cold air damming out over the Atlantic and into/down the coast.
The stronger this becomes then the more blocking and colder air gets injected into teh coastal plain and slows the whole downstream of weather.
What causes a 50/50 low? Usually a Block over teh North Atlantic region or just a back up of Low Pressure systems too.
Hope this helps!

An Impressive mean for snow on the ENS
December 14th Wintry Wave 218EBA26-5E77-4805-B8C8-627C56B12FD3.png.280f030bcc167bb34d8812df9306b9e9

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 12, 2020 9:05 am

We want this storm to be as strong as possible, even if it means we all rain. That’s the sacrifice we need in order to make the mid week storm extremely snowy for all.

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Post by amugs Sat Dec 12, 2020 9:11 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:We want this storm to be as strong as possible, even if it means we all rain. That’s the sacrifice we need in order to make the mid week storm extremely snowy for all.

I concur Frank but if yuo notice one its passes us it somewhat phases with Northern Jet energy dropping in and bombs out.

December 14th Wintry Wave 1607990400-UcoZVcSUqAM

969 WOWZA
December 14th Wintry Wave 1608076800-o7Ersz50a20

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Post by amugs Sat Dec 12, 2020 9:32 am

SOB NAM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! COME TO POPPA BABY!!!

December 14th Wintry Wave 20201212_093010.jpg.847d2200390ad721fc18bf472655829d

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Post by amugs Sat Dec 12, 2020 9:33 am

ITS DEEPR BY ABOUT 6 MB FROM PERVIOUS RUNS = STRONG 50/50 LOW??

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Post by billg315 Sat Dec 12, 2020 10:25 am

I have to say Mugs, you've been on this one and it seems the models are caving to Mugs! lol. I thought this was going to be just some light rain and snow mixed, but I'm now coming around to thinking that in the areas right on that border where the heavy precip cuts off, could see some decent snows out of this. My guess would be the areas where its cold enough to stay snow and stick, will be relatively light in the precipitation intensity category, and most of those with heavier precipitation will be in the "a bit too warm category." But there could be a sweet spot where its just heavy enough to overcome the warmth and give those folks some decent snow with some stickage.
Either way, if this acts as the 50/50 for Wednesday, it will serve its greater purpose in life.
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Post by sroc4 Sat Dec 12, 2020 10:33 am

@billg315 wrote:I have to say Mugs, you've been on this one and it seems the models are caving to Mugs! lol. I thought this was going to be just some light rain and snow mixed, but I'm now coming around to thinking that in the areas right on that border where the heavy precip cuts off, could see some decent snows out of this. My guess would be the areas where its cold enough to stay snow and stick, will be relatively light in the precipitation intensity category, and most of those with heavier precipitation will be in the "a bit too warm category." But there could be a sweet spot where its just heavy enough to overcome the warmth and give those folks some decent snow with some stickage.
Either way, if this acts as the 50/50 for Wednesday, it will serve its greater purpose in life.


That last line Bill. Love it. Might need to add that the need your signature. Lol

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Post by billg315 Sat Dec 12, 2020 10:35 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@billg315 wrote:I have to say Mugs, you've been on this one and it seems the models are caving to Mugs! lol. I thought this was going to be just some light rain and snow mixed, but I'm now coming around to thinking that in the areas right on that border where the heavy precip cuts off, could see some decent snows out of this. My guess would be the areas where its cold enough to stay snow and stick, will be relatively light in the precipitation intensity category, and most of those with heavier precipitation will be in the "a bit too warm category." But there could be a sweet spot where its just heavy enough to overcome the warmth and give those folks some decent snow with some stickage.
Either way, if this acts as the 50/50 for Wednesday, it will serve its greater purpose in life.


That last line Bill. Love it. Might need to add that the need your signature. Lol

LOL! I figured someone would appreciate it. Took your advice, it's now my signature (for the time being). lol
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Post by heehaw453 Sat Dec 12, 2020 10:56 am

@amugs wrote:ITS DEEPR BY ABOUT 6 MB FROM PERVIOUS RUNS = STRONG 50/50 LOW??

GFS is getting very bullish on Monday. BL temps would be only thing holding this back from deep snow.

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Post by amugs Sat Dec 12, 2020 12:16 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:
@amugs wrote:ITS DEEPR BY ABOUT 6 MB FROM PERVIOUS RUNS = STRONG 50/50 LOW??

GFS is getting very bullish on Monday.  BL temps would be only thing holding this back from deep snow.

Yup but I'll take whatever white gold big Momma wants to bring our way.
12Z says gidde up Euro - have to say Euro has been all over this and so many where like say what?? I told our NJWO on Zoom Thursday night that Monday has legs and potential to be a plowable snow fall - they all laughed and said yeah right, many old timers - this from a 50 year old man!

December 14th Wintry Wave Gfs-deterministic-nystate-instant_ptype_3hr-1607774400-1607947200-1607990400-40

Bell maps
December 14th Wintry Wave 1608001200-zpb3GmKETAo

925 Crash on GFS but maybe a bit to warm? The UEO and NAM are this as it starts - we'll see
December 14th Wintry Wave 1607968800-5x464Jp3fKk
850's plenty cold
December 14th Wintry Wave 1607968800-QBpXW2YkrLk

BL crashes with it
December 14th Wintry Wave 1607968800-oKSEhhslz4k

Moderate to Heavy snow in teh area at this time which will bring teh BL - surface temp down
December 14th Wintry Wave 1607968800-h5FEueGQyNA


Starts as white rain then when darkness settle in we have stick age easily I say.

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 12, 2020 1:34 pm

Looks good, even potentially for the coast, from what I am reading us at the coast can't take the snow map verbatim, if I do I am around 4-5 which is awesome, when mugs you said or someone said 3 inches I was happy to hear that. Just catching up onto the wed thread cannot wait to read that : )
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Post by dkodgis Sat Dec 12, 2020 2:25 pm

I am looking forward to the snow and Mugs...you are 50? I could be your dad

cheers
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Post by Irish Sat Dec 12, 2020 5:02 pm

So, in looking at weather.com and it shows me a all rain for Monday. I'm in central Jersey, southern Middlesex county. Is that basically where the snow/ rain cutoff is?

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Post by amugs Sat Dec 12, 2020 5:30 pm

@Irish wrote:So, in looking at weather.com and it shows me a all rain for Monday. I'm in central Jersey, southern Middlesex county. Is that basically where the snow/ rain cutoff is?

Yes right around The Driscoll Bridge

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Post by Irish Sat Dec 12, 2020 5:40 pm

@amugs wrote:
@Irish wrote:So, in looking at weather.com and it shows me a all rain for Monday. I'm in central Jersey, southern Middlesex county. Is that basically where the snow/ rain cutoff is?

Yes right around The Driscoll Bridge

Thx mugs, if the storm setup is helpful for Wednesdays' I'll take it.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Dec 12, 2020 5:47 pm

@dkodgis wrote:I am looking forward to the snow and Mugs...you are 50? I could be your dad

cheers

Yeah Damian, that's a bit of a stretch isn't it?
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Post by dkodgis Sat Dec 12, 2020 6:50 pm

Ha ha, yeah. It is Razz
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Post by aiannone Sat Dec 12, 2020 9:44 pm

0z Hi-Res NAM
December 14th Wintry Wave Nam3km11
December 14th Wintry Wave Nam3km12
December 14th Wintry Wave Nam3km13
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 12, 2020 9:59 pm

I am not encouraged by the most recent model runs. The position of the low is not the issue, it's the lack of cold air. There is no HP to the north. In fact, there is a weak clipper like system in SE Canada that is preventing winds from turning northwesterly.

December 14th Wintry Wave Nam110
December 14th Wintry Wave Nam210
December 14th Wintry Wave Decemb10






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Post by amugs Sun Dec 13, 2020 9:15 am

Thanks Frank - I'll take this and run!!!

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Dec 13, 2020 9:27 am

The 12Z NAM is pretty fired up about tomorrow's event.  Looks to snow moderate to heavy for a good bit.  Again BL temps being marginal may only be on colder surfaces where accumulations are appreciable.

December 14th Wintry Wave Nam17

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Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Dec 13, 2020 9:28 am

@amugs wrote:Thanks Frank - I'll take this and run!!!

Enjoy! I will have my snowflake projectors on! Sad Smile
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