HomeDecember 14th Wintry Wave
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
by heehaw453 Sun Dec 13, 2020 9:27 am
The 12Z NAM is pretty fired up about tomorrow's event. Looks to snow moderate to heavy for a good bit. Again BL temps being marginal may only be on colder surfaces where accumulations are appreciable.
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
by weatherwatchermom Sun Dec 13, 2020 9:28 am
amugs wrote:Thanks Frank - I'll take this and run!!!
Enjoy! I will have my snowflake projectors on!
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
by amugs Sun Dec 13, 2020 9:28 am
From NFSWx
3K Hi Res NAM
12K Regular NAM
Starts off as rain then changes over to snow for most on this board
3K NAM
3K Hi Res NAM
12K Regular NAM
Starts off as rain then changes over to snow for most on this board
3K NAM
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
by amugs Sun Dec 13, 2020 9:31 am
3K NAM temps - just 32/33 degrees for most of NNJ
during the storm
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
by Frank_Wx Sun Dec 13, 2020 12:15 pm
Frank_Wx wrote:I am not encouraged by the most recent model runs. The position of the low is not the issue, it's the lack of cold air. There is no HP to the north. In fact, there is a weak clipper like system in SE Canada that is preventing winds from turning northwesterly.
I’m standing by my first call snow map and making it my final call. Although snow will fall for some in the light shaded blue, I highly doubt accumulation while those in the darker blue should see some.
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
by weatherwatchermom Sun Dec 13, 2020 12:18 pm
Frank_Wx wrote:Frank_Wx wrote:I am not encouraged by the most recent model runs. The position of the low is not the issue, it's the lack of cold air. There is no HP to the north. In fact, there is a weak clipper like system in SE Canada that is preventing winds from turning northwesterly.
I’m standing by my first call snow map and making it my final call. Although snow will fall for some in the light shaded blue, I highly doubt accumulation while those in the darker blue should see some.
Thank you Frank.. hopefully we will have a little mood flakes while I wrap gifts tom! I will pin more hopes on Wed..
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
by jmanley32 Sun Dec 13, 2020 12:34 pm
I dunno, I think this one isn't going to pan out for anyone south of say Tappen Zee, the NAM I personally believe is on its own, even NWS says mainly rain maybe some flakes down here. Not saying it wont work for some but that snow map I think may need to not include the coast in 3-4 inches. I dunno we will see, not far out on this one, lets see what rgem etc. show.heehaw453 wrote:The 12Z NAM is pretty fired up about tomorrow's event. Looks to snow moderate to heavy for a good bit. Again BL temps being marginal may only be on colder surfaces where accumulations are appreciable.
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
by algae888 Sun Dec 13, 2020 2:41 pm
The latest hrrr is coming in quite cold and snowy for tomorrow
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
by heehaw453 Sun Dec 13, 2020 3:10 pm
algae888 wrote:The latest hrrr is coming in quite cold and snowy for tomorrow
Call this the Mugs storm.
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
by algae888 Sun Dec 13, 2020 3:15 pm
Plus the Nam not backing down National Weather Service has me for half an inch of snow tomorrow 1 to 3 in in the northwest suburbsheehaw453 wrote:algae888 wrote:The latest hrrr is coming in quite cold and snowy for tomorrow
Call this the Mugs storm.
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
by sroc4 Sun Dec 13, 2020 3:16 pm
18z and the Nam but it’s following suit.
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
by heehaw453 Sun Dec 13, 2020 3:17 pm
algae888 wrote:Plus the Nam not backing down National Weather Service has me for half an inch of snow tomorrow 1 to 3 in in the northwest suburbsheehaw453 wrote:algae888 wrote:The latest hrrr is coming in quite cold and snowy for tomorrow
Call this the Mugs storm.
If the HRRR and NAM are to be believed 2-4" sounds reasonable on the colder surface. If it comes down hard enough it'll stick to pavement too.
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
by GreyBeard Sun Dec 13, 2020 6:44 pm
NWS has backed off on any mention of snow tomorrow for nassau county, long island. Forecast is for 37° with 1/4 to 1/2" of rain.
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
by amugs Sun Dec 13, 2020 7:02 pm
18 Z NAMs not letting go
12K
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2020121318/namconus_asnowd_neus_12.png
3K
12K
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2020121318/namconus_asnowd_neus_12.png
3K
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
by amugs Sun Dec 13, 2020 7:13 pm
From Pro Met - red area is prime
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
by amugs Sun Dec 13, 2020 7:15 pm
Starting about 10AM lasting until about 4-5 PM
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
by amugs Sun Dec 13, 2020 8:04 pm
18 Z EURO now supports the NAM!!
Nice appetizer
Nice appetizer
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
by Frank_Wx Sun Dec 13, 2020 9:34 pm
Tomorrow will be interesting. 00z NAM backed off quite significantly compared to its 18z run. I have a feeling this will be closer to reality.
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
by docstox12 Mon Dec 14, 2020 9:00 am
Started out promising earlier with a period of light to moderate snow that coated the ground, but changed to rain now.No way we get the 1 to 2 inches NWS said unless it changes back to snow.
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
by billg315 Mon Dec 14, 2020 9:02 am
39* here with a very cold rain. Intensity is sort of off-and-on. I think when it first started I noticed some snowflakes mixed in but mostly just rain. We'll see if it goes over to snow before ending later today.
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 14, 2020 9:05 am
Too warm for snow at the moment. Here are 850mb temps
Here is NAM snapshot at 11am. So the cold should slowly descent S&E and give W/NW NJ a nice little snowfall.
Here is NAM snapshot at 11am. So the cold should slowly descent S&E and give W/NW NJ a nice little snowfall.
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
by heehaw453 Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:03 am
Frank_Wx wrote:Too warm for snow at the moment. Here are 850mb temps
Here is NAM snapshot at 11am. So the cold should slowly descent S&E and give W/NW NJ a nice little snowfall.
the isotherms are collapsing quickly. latest pic. note the kinking.
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
by dkodgis Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:06 am
Yes. Here in northern Orange county, it is snowing still. 32 degrees
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
by heehaw453 Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:06 am
they actually collapsed now down to the coast. very fast progression. of course the surface is too warm for accumulations, but nice to see snow regardless.
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
by docstox12 Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:06 am
Frank spot on with his prediction, rain changing back to snow here at 10:06.
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
by heehaw453 Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:07 am
dkodgis wrote:Yes. Here in northern Orange county, it is snowing still. 32 degrees
very nice.
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