December 14th Wintry Wave

The 12Z NAM is pretty fired up about tomorrow's event.  Looks to snow moderate to heavy for a good bit.  Again BL temps being marginal may only be on colder surfaces where accumulations are appreciable.

amugs wrote:Thanks Frank - I'll take this and run!!!

Enjoy! I will have my snowflake projectors on!

From NFSWx
3K Hi Res NAM

12K Regular NAM


Starts off as rain then changes over to snow for most on this board
3K NAM

3K NAM temps - just 32/33 degrees for most of NNJ
during the storm

Frank_Wx wrote:I am not encouraged by the most recent model runs. The position of the low is not the issue, it's the lack of cold air. There is no HP to the north. In fact, there is a weak clipper like system in SE Canada that is preventing winds from turning northwesterly.

I’m standing by my first call snow map and making it my final call. Although snow will fall for some in the light shaded blue, I highly doubt accumulation while those in the darker blue should see some.

Frank_Wx wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:I am not encouraged by the most recent model runs. The position of the low is not the issue, it's the lack of cold air. There is no HP to the north. In fact, there is a weak clipper like system in SE Canada that is preventing winds from turning northwesterly.

I’m standing by my first call snow map and making it my final call. Although snow will fall for some in the light shaded blue, I highly doubt accumulation while those in the darker blue should see some.

Thank you Frank.. hopefully we will have a little mood flakes while I wrap gifts tom! I will pin more hopes on Wed..

heehaw453 wrote:The 12Z NAM is pretty fired up about tomorrow's event.  Looks to snow moderate to heavy for a good bit.  Again BL temps being marginal may only be on colder surfaces where accumulations are appreciable.

I dunno, I think this one isn't going to pan out for anyone south of say Tappen Zee, the NAM I personally believe is on its own, even NWS says mainly rain maybe some flakes down here. Not saying it wont work for some but that snow map I think may need to not include the coast in 3-4 inches. I dunno we will see, not far out on this one, lets see what rgem etc. show.

The latest hrrr is coming in quite cold and snowy for tomorrow

algae888 wrote:The latest hrrr is coming in quite cold and snowy for tomorrow

Call this the Mugs storm.

heehaw453 wrote:

algae888 wrote:The latest hrrr is coming in quite cold and snowy for tomorrow

Call this the Mugs storm.

Plus the Nam not backing down National Weather Service has me for half an inch of snow tomorrow 1 to 3 in in the northwest suburbs

18z and the Nam but it’s following suit.

algae888 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:

algae888 wrote:The latest hrrr is coming in quite cold and snowy for tomorrow

Call this the Mugs storm.

Plus the Nam not backing down National Weather Service has me for half an inch of snow tomorrow 1 to 3 in in the northwest suburbs

If the HRRR and NAM are to be believed 2-4" sounds reasonable on the colder surface. If it comes down hard enough it'll stick to pavement too.

NWS has backed off on any mention of snow tomorrow for nassau county, long island. Forecast is for 37° with 1/4 to 1/2" of rain.

18 Z NAMs not letting go
12K

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2020121318/namconus_asnowd_neus_12.png
3K

From Pro Met - red area is prime

Starting about 10AM lasting until about 4-5 PM

18 Z EURO now supports the NAM!!
Nice appetizer

Tomorrow will be interesting. 00z NAM backed off quite significantly compared to its 18z run. I have a feeling this will be closer to reality.

Started out promising earlier with a period of light to moderate snow that coated the ground, but changed to rain now.No way we get the 1 to 2 inches NWS said unless it changes back to snow.

39* here with a very cold rain. Intensity is sort of off-and-on. I think when it first started I noticed some snowflakes mixed in but mostly just rain. We'll see if it goes over to snow before ending later today.

Too warm for snow at the moment. Here are 850mb temps



Here is NAM snapshot at 11am. So the cold should slowly descent S&E and give W/NW NJ a nice little snowfall.

Frank_Wx wrote:Too warm for snow at the moment. Here are 850mb temps



Here is NAM snapshot at 11am. So the cold should slowly descent S&E and give W/NW NJ a nice little snowfall.

the isotherms are collapsing quickly.  latest pic.  note the kinking.

Yes. Here in northern Orange county, it is snowing still. 32 degrees

they actually collapsed now down to the coast.  very fast progression.  of course the surface is too warm for accumulations, but nice to see snow regardless.

Frank spot on with his prediction, rain changing back to snow here at 10:06.

dkodgis wrote:Yes. Here in northern Orange county, it is snowing still. 32 degrees

very nice.