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December 14th Wintry Wave

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Post by amugs Sun Dec 13, 2020 9:28 am

From NFSWx
3K Hi Res NAM
December 14th Wintry Wave - Page 2 EpH5qRhXIAERpSx?format=jpg&name=medium
12K Regular NAM
December 14th Wintry Wave - Page 2 EpH5qRjXMAAbm3Y?format=jpg&name=medium

Starts off as rain then changes over to snow for most on this board
3K NAM
December 14th Wintry Wave - Page 2 Nam-nest-conus-nystate-instant_ptype_3hr-1607860800-1607954400-1607986800-40

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Post by amugs Sun Dec 13, 2020 9:31 am

3K NAM temps - just 32/33 degrees for most of NNJ
December 14th Wintry Wave - Page 2 Nam-nest-conus-nystate-t2m_f-1607860800-1607954400-1607986800-40 during the storm

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Dec 13, 2020 12:15 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:I am not encouraged by the most recent model runs. The position of the low is not the issue, it's the lack of cold air. There is no HP to the north. In fact, there is a weak clipper like system in SE Canada that is preventing winds from turning northwesterly.

December 14th Wintry Wave - Page 2 Nam110
December 14th Wintry Wave - Page 2 Nam210
December 14th Wintry Wave - Page 2 Decemb10



I’m standing by my first call snow map and making it my final call. Although snow will fall for some in the light shaded blue, I highly doubt accumulation while those in the darker blue should see some.

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Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Dec 13, 2020 12:18 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:I am not encouraged by the most recent model runs. The position of the low is not the issue, it's the lack of cold air. There is no HP to the north. In fact, there is a weak clipper like system in SE Canada that is preventing winds from turning northwesterly.

December 14th Wintry Wave - Page 2 Nam110
December 14th Wintry Wave - Page 2 Nam210
December 14th Wintry Wave - Page 2 Decemb10



I’m standing by my first call snow map and making it my final call. Although snow will fall for some in the light shaded blue, I highly doubt accumulation while those in the darker blue should see some.

Thank you Frank.. hopefully we will have a little mood flakes while I wrap gifts tom! I will pin more hopes on Wed..
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 13, 2020 12:34 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:The 12Z NAM is pretty fired up about tomorrow's event.  Looks to snow moderate to heavy for a good bit.  Again BL temps being marginal may only be on colder surfaces where accumulations are appreciable.

December 14th Wintry Wave - Page 2 Nam17
I dunno, I think this one isn't going to pan out for anyone south of say Tappen Zee, the NAM I personally believe is on its own, even NWS says mainly rain maybe some flakes down here. Not saying it wont work for some but that snow map I think may need to not include the coast in 3-4 inches. I dunno we will see, not far out on this one, lets see what rgem etc. show.
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Post by algae888 Sun Dec 13, 2020 2:41 pm

The latest hrrr is coming in quite cold and snowy for tomorrow
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Post by heehaw453 Sun Dec 13, 2020 3:10 pm

@algae888 wrote:The latest hrrr is coming in quite cold and snowy for tomorrow

Call this the Mugs storm.

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Post by algae888 Sun Dec 13, 2020 3:15 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:The latest hrrr is coming in quite cold and snowy for tomorrow

Call this the Mugs storm.
Plus the Nam not backing down National Weather Service has me for half an inch of snow tomorrow 1 to 3 in in the northwest suburbs
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Post by sroc4 Sun Dec 13, 2020 3:16 pm

18z and the Nam but it’s following suit.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 7th 6"
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Post by heehaw453 Sun Dec 13, 2020 3:17 pm

@algae888 wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:The latest hrrr is coming in quite cold and snowy for tomorrow

Call this the Mugs storm.
Plus the Nam not backing down National Weather Service has me for half an inch of snow tomorrow 1 to 3 in in the northwest suburbs

If the HRRR and NAM are to be believed 2-4" sounds reasonable on the colder surface. If it comes down hard enough it'll stick to pavement too.

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Post by GreyBeard Sun Dec 13, 2020 6:44 pm

NWS has backed off on any mention of snow tomorrow for nassau county, long island. Forecast is for 37° with 1/4 to 1/2" of rain.

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Post by amugs Sun Dec 13, 2020 7:02 pm

18 Z NAMs not letting go
12K
December 14th Wintry Wave - Page 2 Namconus_asnow_neus_11
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2020121318/namconus_asnowd_neus_12.png
3K
December 14th Wintry Wave - Page 2 Nam3km_asnow_neus_34
December 14th Wintry Wave - Page 2 Nam3km_asnowd_neus_34


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Post by amugs Sun Dec 13, 2020 7:13 pm

From Pro Met - red area is prime

December 14th Wintry Wave - Page 2 Snowfall_024h_mean_ne.f03600.png.b7269baabe8be93a8b15fa712e30024c

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Post by amugs Sun Dec 13, 2020 7:15 pm

December 14th Wintry Wave - Page 2 Nam-nest-conus-ne-instant_ptype_3hr-1607882400-1607947200-1607990400-40

Starting about 10AM lasting until about 4-5 PM

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Post by GreyBeard Sun Dec 13, 2020 7:29 pm

December 14th Wintry Wave - Page 2 Screen22

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Post by amugs Sun Dec 13, 2020 8:04 pm

18 Z EURO now supports the NAM!!
Nice appetizer

December 14th Wintry Wave - Page 2 1608001200-iioo7tzVAI4

December 14th Wintry Wave - Page 2 1608001200-Xe1NF8b93DI

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Dec 13, 2020 9:34 pm

Tomorrow will be interesting. 00z NAM backed off quite significantly compared to its 18z run. I have a feeling this will be closer to reality.

December 14th Wintry Wave - Page 2 Namconus_asnow_neus_10

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Post by docstox12 Mon Dec 14, 2020 9:00 am

Started out promising earlier with a period of light to moderate snow that coated the ground, but changed to rain now.No way we get the 1 to 2 inches NWS said unless it changes back to snow.
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Post by billg315 Mon Dec 14, 2020 9:02 am

39* here with a very cold rain. Intensity is sort of off-and-on. I think when it first started I noticed some snowflakes mixed in but mostly just rain. We'll see if it goes over to snow before ending later today.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 14, 2020 9:05 am

Too warm for snow at the moment. Here are 850mb temps

December 14th Wintry Wave - Page 2 Capture

Here is NAM snapshot at 11am. So the cold should slowly descent S&E and give W/NW NJ a nice little snowfall.

December 14th Wintry Wave - Page 2 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_4

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:03 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Too warm for snow at the moment. Here are 850mb temps

December 14th Wintry Wave - Page 2 Capture

Here is NAM snapshot at 11am. So the cold should slowly descent S&E and give W/NW NJ a nice little snowfall.

December 14th Wintry Wave - Page 2 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_4

the isotherms are collapsing quickly.  latest pic.  note the kinking.

December 14th Wintry Wave - Page 2 850s22

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Post by dkodgis Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:06 am

Yes. Here in northern Orange county, it is snowing still. 32 degrees
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Post by heehaw453 Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:06 am

they actually collapsed now down to the coast.  very fast progression.  of course the surface is too warm for accumulations, but nice to see snow regardless.

December 14th Wintry Wave - Page 2 850s23

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Post by docstox12 Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:06 am

Frank spot on with his prediction, rain changing back to snow here at 10:06.
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Post by heehaw453 Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:07 am

@dkodgis wrote:Yes. Here in northern Orange county, it is snowing still. 32 degrees

very nice.

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