December 14th Wintry Wave
+18
brownie
Dunnzoo
crippo84
jimv45
docstox12
GreyBeard
algae888
weatherwatchermom
aiannone
CPcantmeasuresnow
Irish
dkodgis
jmanley32
heehaw453
sroc4
billg315
amugs
Frank_Wx
22 posters
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
amugs wrote:Thanks Frank - I'll take this and run!!!
Enjoy! I will have my snowflake projectors on!
![Sad](https://2img.net/i/fa/i/smiles/icon_sad.gif)
![Smile](https://2img.net/i/fa/i/smiles/icon_smile.gif)
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Join date : 2014-11-25
Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
From NFSWx
3K Hi Res NAM
![December 14th Wintry Wave - Page 2 EpH5qRhXIAERpSx?format=jpg&name=medium](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EpH5qRhXIAERpSx?format=jpg&name=medium)
12K Regular NAM
![December 14th Wintry Wave - Page 2 EpH5qRjXMAAbm3Y?format=jpg&name=medium](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EpH5qRjXMAAbm3Y?format=jpg&name=medium)
Starts off as rain then changes over to snow for most on this board
3K NAM
![December 14th Wintry Wave - Page 2 Nam-nest-conus-nystate-instant_ptype_3hr-1607860800-1607954400-1607986800-40](https://maps.api.weatherbell.com/gif/temporary/nam-nest-conus-nystate-instant_ptype_3hr-1607860800-1607954400-1607986800-40.gif)
3K Hi Res NAM
12K Regular NAM
Starts off as rain then changes over to snow for most on this board
3K NAM
![December 14th Wintry Wave - Page 2 Nam-nest-conus-nystate-instant_ptype_3hr-1607860800-1607954400-1607986800-40](https://maps.api.weatherbell.com/gif/temporary/nam-nest-conus-nystate-instant_ptype_3hr-1607860800-1607954400-1607986800-40.gif)
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
3K NAM temps - just 32/33 degrees for most of NNJ
during the storm
![December 14th Wintry Wave - Page 2 Nam-nest-conus-nystate-t2m_f-1607860800-1607954400-1607986800-40](https://maps.api.weatherbell.com/gif/temporary/nam-nest-conus-nystate-t2m_f-1607860800-1607954400-1607986800-40.gif)
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
I’m standing by my first call snow map and making it my final call. Although snow will fall for some in the light shaded blue, I highly doubt accumulation while those in the darker blue should see some.
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
Frank_Wx wrote:
I’m standing by my first call snow map and making it my final call. Although snow will fall for some in the light shaded blue, I highly doubt accumulation while those in the darker blue should see some.
Thank you Frank.. hopefully we will have a little mood flakes while I wrap gifts tom! I will pin more hopes on Wed..
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
I dunno, I think this one isn't going to pan out for anyone south of say Tappen Zee, the NAM I personally believe is on its own, even NWS says mainly rain maybe some flakes down here. Not saying it wont work for some but that snow map I think may need to not include the coast in 3-4 inches. I dunno we will see, not far out on this one, lets see what rgem etc. show.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
The latest hrrr is coming in quite cold and snowy for tomorrow
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
algae888 wrote:The latest hrrr is coming in quite cold and snowy for tomorrow
Call this the Mugs storm.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
Plus the Nam not backing down National Weather Service has me for half an inch of snow tomorrow 1 to 3 in in the northwest suburbsheehaw453 wrote:algae888 wrote:The latest hrrr is coming in quite cold and snowy for tomorrow
Call this the Mugs storm.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
18z and the Nam but it’s following suit.
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
algae888 wrote:Plus the Nam not backing down National Weather Service has me for half an inch of snow tomorrow 1 to 3 in in the northwest suburbsheehaw453 wrote:algae888 wrote:The latest hrrr is coming in quite cold and snowy for tomorrow
Call this the Mugs storm.
If the HRRR and NAM are to be believed 2-4" sounds reasonable on the colder surface. If it comes down hard enough it'll stick to pavement too.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
NWS has backed off on any mention of snow tomorrow for nassau county, long island. Forecast is for 37° with 1/4 to 1/2" of rain.
GreyBeard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
18 Z NAMs not letting go
12K
![December 14th Wintry Wave - Page 2 Namconus_asnow_neus_11](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2020121318/namconus_asnow_neus_11.png)
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2020121318/namconus_asnowd_neus_12.png
3K
![December 14th Wintry Wave - Page 2 Nam3km_asnow_neus_34](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2020121318/nam3km_asnow_neus_34.png)
![December 14th Wintry Wave - Page 2 Nam3km_asnowd_neus_34](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2020121318/nam3km_asnowd_neus_34.png)
12K
![December 14th Wintry Wave - Page 2 Namconus_asnow_neus_11](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2020121318/namconus_asnow_neus_11.png)
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2020121318/namconus_asnowd_neus_12.png
3K
![December 14th Wintry Wave - Page 2 Nam3km_asnow_neus_34](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2020121318/nam3km_asnow_neus_34.png)
![December 14th Wintry Wave - Page 2 Nam3km_asnowd_neus_34](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2020121318/nam3km_asnowd_neus_34.png)
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
From Pro Met - red area is prime
![December 14th Wintry Wave - Page 2 Snowfall_024h_mean_ne.f03600.png.b7269baabe8be93a8b15fa712e30024c](https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2020_12/snowfall_024h_mean_ne.f03600.png.b7269baabe8be93a8b15fa712e30024c.png)
![December 14th Wintry Wave - Page 2 Snowfall_024h_mean_ne.f03600.png.b7269baabe8be93a8b15fa712e30024c](https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2020_12/snowfall_024h_mean_ne.f03600.png.b7269baabe8be93a8b15fa712e30024c.png)
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15095
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
![December 14th Wintry Wave - Page 2 Nam-nest-conus-ne-instant_ptype_3hr-1607882400-1607947200-1607990400-40](https://maps.api.weatherbell.com/gif/temporary/nam-nest-conus-ne-instant_ptype_3hr-1607882400-1607947200-1607990400-40.gif)
Starting about 10AM lasting until about 4-5 PM
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15095
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
GreyBeard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
18 Z EURO now supports the NAM!!
Nice appetizer
![December 14th Wintry Wave - Page 2 1608001200-iioo7tzVAI4](https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/nyc/snow_depth/1607882400/1608001200-iioo7tzVAI4.png)
![December 14th Wintry Wave - Page 2 1608001200-Xe1NF8b93DI](https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/nyc/total_snow_10to1/1607882400/1608001200-Xe1NF8b93DI.png)
Nice appetizer
![December 14th Wintry Wave - Page 2 1608001200-iioo7tzVAI4](https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/nyc/snow_depth/1607882400/1608001200-iioo7tzVAI4.png)
![December 14th Wintry Wave - Page 2 1608001200-Xe1NF8b93DI](https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/nyc/total_snow_10to1/1607882400/1608001200-Xe1NF8b93DI.png)
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
Tomorrow will be interesting. 00z NAM backed off quite significantly compared to its 18z run. I have a feeling this will be closer to reality.
![December 14th Wintry Wave - Page 2 Namconus_asnow_neus_10](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2020121400/namconus_asnow_neus_10.png)
![December 14th Wintry Wave - Page 2 Namconus_asnow_neus_10](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2020121400/namconus_asnow_neus_10.png)
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
Started out promising earlier with a period of light to moderate snow that coated the ground, but changed to rain now.No way we get the 1 to 2 inches NWS said unless it changes back to snow.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
39* here with a very cold rain. Intensity is sort of off-and-on. I think when it first started I noticed some snowflakes mixed in but mostly just rain. We'll see if it goes over to snow before ending later today.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
Too warm for snow at the moment. Here are 850mb temps
![December 14th Wintry Wave - Page 2 Capture](https://i.postimg.cc/wTh5mHjB/Capture.jpg)
Here is NAM snapshot at 11am. So the cold should slowly descent S&E and give W/NW NJ a nice little snowfall.
![December 14th Wintry Wave - Page 2 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_4](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2020121412/namconus_ref_frzn_neus_4.png)
![December 14th Wintry Wave - Page 2 Capture](https://i.postimg.cc/wTh5mHjB/Capture.jpg)
Here is NAM snapshot at 11am. So the cold should slowly descent S&E and give W/NW NJ a nice little snowfall.
![December 14th Wintry Wave - Page 2 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_4](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2020121412/namconus_ref_frzn_neus_4.png)
_________________
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heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
Yes. Here in northern Orange county, it is snowing still. 32 degrees
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
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heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
Frank spot on with his prediction, rain changing back to snow here at 10:06.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
dkodgis wrote:Yes. Here in northern Orange county, it is snowing still. 32 degrees
very nice.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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