December 14th Wintry Wave
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
From NFSWx
3K Hi Res NAM

12K Regular NAM

Starts off as rain then changes over to snow for most on this board
3K NAM

3K Hi Res NAM
12K Regular NAM
Starts off as rain then changes over to snow for most on this board
3K NAM

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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
3K NAM temps - just 32/33 degrees for most of NNJ
during the storm

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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
@Frank_Wx wrote:I am not encouraged by the most recent model runs. The position of the low is not the issue, it's the lack of cold air. There is no HP to the north. In fact, there is a weak clipper like system in SE Canada that is preventing winds from turning northwesterly.![]()
I’m standing by my first call snow map and making it my final call. Although snow will fall for some in the light shaded blue, I highly doubt accumulation while those in the darker blue should see some.
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
@Frank_Wx wrote:@Frank_Wx wrote:I am not encouraged by the most recent model runs. The position of the low is not the issue, it's the lack of cold air. There is no HP to the north. In fact, there is a weak clipper like system in SE Canada that is preventing winds from turning northwesterly.![]()
I’m standing by my first call snow map and making it my final call. Although snow will fall for some in the light shaded blue, I highly doubt accumulation while those in the darker blue should see some.
Thank you Frank.. hopefully we will have a little mood flakes while I wrap gifts tom! I will pin more hopes on Wed..
weatherwatchermom- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
I dunno, I think this one isn't going to pan out for anyone south of say Tappen Zee, the NAM I personally believe is on its own, even NWS says mainly rain maybe some flakes down here. Not saying it wont work for some but that snow map I think may need to not include the coast in 3-4 inches. I dunno we will see, not far out on this one, lets see what rgem etc. show.@heehaw453 wrote:The 12Z NAM is pretty fired up about tomorrow's event. Looks to snow moderate to heavy for a good bit. Again BL temps being marginal may only be on colder surfaces where accumulations are appreciable.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
The latest hrrr is coming in quite cold and snowy for tomorrow
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
@algae888 wrote:The latest hrrr is coming in quite cold and snowy for tomorrow
Call this the Mugs storm.
heehaw453- Posts : 1071
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
Plus the Nam not backing down National Weather Service has me for half an inch of snow tomorrow 1 to 3 in in the northwest suburbs@heehaw453 wrote:@algae888 wrote:The latest hrrr is coming in quite cold and snowy for tomorrow
Call this the Mugs storm.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
18z and the Nam but it’s following suit.
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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS 35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
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WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
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Dec 16th/17th 7.25"[/size]
sroc4- Admin
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
@algae888 wrote:Plus the Nam not backing down National Weather Service has me for half an inch of snow tomorrow 1 to 3 in in the northwest suburbs@heehaw453 wrote:@algae888 wrote:The latest hrrr is coming in quite cold and snowy for tomorrow
Call this the Mugs storm.
If the HRRR and NAM are to be believed 2-4" sounds reasonable on the colder surface. If it comes down hard enough it'll stick to pavement too.
heehaw453- Posts : 1071
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
NWS has backed off on any mention of snow tomorrow for nassau county, long island. Forecast is for 37° with 1/4 to 1/2" of rain.
GreyBeard- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
18 Z NAMs not letting go
12K

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2020121318/namconus_asnowd_neus_12.png
3K


12K

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2020121318/namconus_asnowd_neus_12.png
3K


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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
From Pro Met - red area is prime


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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave

Starting about 10AM lasting until about 4-5 PM
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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GreyBeard- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
18 Z EURO now supports the NAM!!
Nice appetizer


Nice appetizer


_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
Tomorrow will be interesting. 00z NAM backed off quite significantly compared to its 18z run. I have a feeling this will be closer to reality.


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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
Started out promising earlier with a period of light to moderate snow that coated the ground, but changed to rain now.No way we get the 1 to 2 inches NWS said unless it changes back to snow.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
39* here with a very cold rain. Intensity is sort of off-and-on. I think when it first started I noticed some snowflakes mixed in but mostly just rain. We'll see if it goes over to snow before ending later today.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
Too warm for snow at the moment. Here are 850mb temps

Here is NAM snapshot at 11am. So the cold should slowly descent S&E and give W/NW NJ a nice little snowfall.


Here is NAM snapshot at 11am. So the cold should slowly descent S&E and give W/NW NJ a nice little snowfall.

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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
@Frank_Wx wrote:Too warm for snow at the moment. Here are 850mb temps
Here is NAM snapshot at 11am. So the cold should slowly descent S&E and give W/NW NJ a nice little snowfall.
the isotherms are collapsing quickly. latest pic. note the kinking.

heehaw453- Posts : 1071
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
Yes. Here in northern Orange county, it is snowing still. 32 degrees
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heehaw453- Posts : 1071
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
Frank spot on with his prediction, rain changing back to snow here at 10:06.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: December 14th Wintry Wave
@dkodgis wrote:Yes. Here in northern Orange county, it is snowing still. 32 degrees
very nice.
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