February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast

Moderate to heavy snow (bigger dendrites). About 4.5" otg.

20/19.3

23/29  First Flakes  Whew!

Looks like some pretty solid bands setting up over philly now moving NE

First Flakes falling in Commack. Northwest SuffolK LI

heehaw453 wrote:Moderate to heavy snow (bigger dendrites).  About 4.5" otg.  

20/19.3

This is a pretty good unscientific snow rate calculator because each of those bands coming through your area rolls through my area and every hour you’re a little over an inch ahead of my accumulation. Lol. So those bands must be just about 1” per hour rates.

Who called it hmm? NYC state of emergency, but not the rest of the area?

https://abc7ny.com/nyc-schools-closed-snow-how-much-mayor-bill-de-blasio/10187668/

Zhukov1945 wrote:Looks like some pretty solid bands setting up over philly now moving NE

Yeah there is a heavy band from Philly back through Montgomery Co that is probably headed this way after the current moderate to heavy band passes.

Ok, so I have some ponderances based on my observations of current radar trends and broad recollection of the general evolution of the modeling. The first image is a current radar image with the overlays of where I think current banding is indicating the eventual development of quasi-stationary, pivoting banding features (in red). The northern one should become established BEFORE the southern one, as it will be forced by the general large-scale deformation/frontogenesis. The southern one will be associated with the maturing low- and mid-level cyclones tomorrow.



The second image depicts how I think these same bands will orient themselves before becoming quasi-stationary as the the storm matured and then occludes, before they begin to then expand away as the system decays.



The area in red between the two bands denotes where there will likely be a period of subsidence as the first band begins to rotate a little further north before the secondary band becomes established to recover. That region would then shift a bit further west-northwest during the maturation and occlusion processes. So, these two areas are where I think we may see the best totals, BUT THIS IS SOLELY MY OPINION BASED ON WHAT IM SEEING IN THE RADAR TRENDS WITH SOME PREVIOUS THOUGHTS MIXED IN. I’m testing a hypothesis here that you can pick out areas of *preferred* banding tendencies based on certain radar/early precipitation trends. Will be fun to watch evolve at the very least.

Wow

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1Kphla_h.gif

Frank_Wx wrote:Wow

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1Kphla_h.gif

Love that many of us have 3-4" before the real bands even get started. Great sign.

Frank_Wx wrote:Wow

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1Kphla_h.gif

That yellow band is brightbanding, indicating the mix line. Confirmed with Dual-pol.

rb924119 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Wow

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1Kphla_h.gif

That yellow band is brightbanding, indicating the mix line. Confirmed with Dual-pol.

Is it too basic to think that the mix line going forward is likely Annapolis MD (which is right on the edge) due NE up to just east of NYC?

rb924119 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Wow

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1Kphla_h.gif

That yellow band is brightbanding, indicating the mix line. Confirmed with Dual-pol.

Yup

But check out that CNJ band. Who's under that?

3 inches in Stillwater NJ at 1190 feet altitude ( minus the 1/2 inch of frozen snow from Tuesday ) , 16 degrees and a slight wind out of the east, steady fine snow coming down. Just got done shoveling 2 1/2 inches of powder off the driveway , Snow is Good !

So that 0Z NAM now puts the CCB towards the Mason Dixon Line. LOL.

Frank_Wx wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Wow

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1Kphla_h.gif

That yellow band is brightbanding, indicating the mix line. Confirmed with Dual-pol.

Yup

But check out that CNJ band. Who's under that?

I’m on the western end of that band. We’re getting pretty decent snow rates here.

10am tomorrow per 00z NAM



Here is 1pm

Zhukov1945 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Wow

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1Kphla_h.gif

That yellow band is brightbanding, indicating the mix line. Confirmed with Dual-pol.

Is it too basic to think that the mix line going forward is likely Annapolis MD (which is right on the edge) due NE up to just east of NYC?

Depends who you ask haha in my opinion, I think that’s pretty fair. But others would (respectfully, and fairly) disagree haha

NAM caving to EURO (look at SE PA)

Frank_Wx wrote:10am tomorrow per 00z NAM



Here is 1pm

4pm

MADONNE!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I'm just south of Trenton in Roebling. I'll be in the band coming through Philly shortly.

Frank_Wx wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:10am tomorrow per 00z NAM



Here is 1pm

4pm

7pm

billg315 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Wow

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1Kphla_h.gif

That yellow band is brightbanding, indicating the mix line. Confirmed with Dual-pol.

Yup

But check out that CNJ band. Who's under that?

I’m on the western end of that band. We’re getting pretty decent snow rates here.

Yeah I'm close to you, meant on a going forward basis as this thing advances

The NAM is close to unleashing King Kong on us. I guess Kong is > than Godzilla

Current Radar nice banding flowing northward