NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Banter Thread 6.0

+40
Radz
kalleg
phil155
Wheezer
nutleyblizzard
rb924119
jimv45
brownie
Math23x7
SoulSingMG
mikeypizano
DAYBLAZER
SkiSeadooJoe
Joe Snow
essexcountypete
aiannone
heehaw453
frank 638
mwilli
Irish
Scullybutcher
algae888
bobjohnsonforthehall
docstox12
CPcantmeasuresnow
Dunnzoo
sroc4
amugs
SENJsnowman
weatherwatchermom
jmanley32
HectorO
TheAresian
dkodgis
GreyBeard
Grselig
snowday111
billg315
WeatherBob
Frank_Wx
44 posters

Page 27 of 30 Previous  1 ... 15 ... 26, 27, 28, 29, 30  Next

Go down

Banter Thread 6.0 - Page 27 Empty Re: Banter Thread 6.0

Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 06, 2022 11:15 am

Happy Birthday, Dunz! Many happy and healthy more!!

And thank you all for the birthday wishes! Belated or not, they all mean the same to me Smile

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 7192
Join date : 2013-02-06

Back to top Go down

Banter Thread 6.0 - Page 27 Empty Re: Banter Thread 6.0

Post by mikeypizano Thu Jan 06, 2022 1:48 pm

rb924119 wrote:Happy Birthday, Dunz! Many happy and healthy more!!

And thank you all for the birthday wishes! Belated or not, they all mean the same to me Smile

Happy birthday RB and Janet!

mikeypizano
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1118
Join date : 2017-01-05

Back to top Go down

Banter Thread 6.0 - Page 27 Empty Re: Banter Thread 6.0

Post by amugs Thu Jan 06, 2022 6:00 pm

Delayed openings and closings are flying now. My school said 7:30 tonight well decide on a delay. 5AM we'll let u know if we close. Our administration just don't believe in snow days.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15194
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

weatherwatchermom likes this post

Back to top Go down

Banter Thread 6.0 - Page 27 Empty Re: Banter Thread 6.0

Post by Dunnzoo Thu Jan 06, 2022 8:01 pm

amugs wrote:Delayed openings and closings are flying now. My school said 7:30 tonight well decide on a delay. 5AM we'll let u know if we close. Our administration just don't believe in snow days.

Waldwick is delayed for now, will let them know about 7:30 am for full closure if needed.

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
Dunnzoo
Dunnzoo
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4944
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 62
Location : Westwood, NJ

Back to top Go down

Banter Thread 6.0 - Page 27 Empty Re: Banter Thread 6.0

Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Jan 06, 2022 11:32 pm

party party Happy Birthday Janet and Ray party party \

hope you both enjoyed your days!!
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 3914
Reputation : 78
Join date : 2014-11-25
Location : Hazlet Township, NJ

rb924119 likes this post

Back to top Go down

Banter Thread 6.0 - Page 27 Empty Re: Banter Thread 6.0

Post by amugs Fri Jan 07, 2022 7:40 am

JANET mother nature's beauty on your birthday. God Bless and to many more!

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15194
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Banter Thread 6.0 - Page 27 Empty Re: Banter Thread 6.0

Post by amugs Fri Jan 07, 2022 7:42 am

Ratios had to be 20 or 25:1 overnight for .35 QPF.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15194
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Banter Thread 6.0 - Page 27 Empty Re: Banter Thread 6.0

Post by amugs Fri Jan 07, 2022 7:47 am

amugs wrote:Ratios had to be 20 or 25:1 overnight for .35 QPF.

BOOOOM I was off by a smidgen!!
He's about 6 miles to my east


_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15194
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Banter Thread 6.0 - Page 27 Empty Re: Banter Thread 6.0

Post by amugs Fri Jan 07, 2022 7:57 am

Great call by HREF . Somehow missed this last night!

Banter Thread 6.0 - Page 27 Fifhdf10

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15194
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Banter Thread 6.0 - Page 27 Empty Re: Banter Thread 6.0

Post by amugs Fri Jan 07, 2022 8:02 am


_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15194
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Banter Thread 6.0 - Page 27 Empty Re: Banter Thread 6.0

Post by amugs Fri Jan 07, 2022 9:18 am

Measured 4.75" not bad at all

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15194
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Banter Thread 6.0 - Page 27 Empty Re: Banter Thread 6.0

Post by billg315 Sat Jan 08, 2022 11:32 am

This is two weeks out. But did  @aiannone draw up this snow map at home? Laughing
Banter Thread 6.0 - Page 27 2b511110
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4586
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

sroc4 and weatherwatchermom like this post

Back to top Go down

Banter Thread 6.0 - Page 27 Empty Re: Banter Thread 6.0

Post by docstox12 Mon Jan 10, 2022 9:20 am

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3786611-natural-gas-up-6-back-above-4-on-cold-weather

Because of the great work our long range crew does, I got into a natural gas investment in December when the weather was mild and the price was low.I saw back then from the long range crew January would be colder.Natural gas back up over 4 bucks (dollars per MM btu) today and BOIL, the ETF I trade up today as well.
Some commodities prices are dependent upon long range weather forecasts and nat gas is one.
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 8641
Reputation : 222
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 74
Location : Monroe NY

sroc4, amugs and rb924119 like this post

Back to top Go down

Banter Thread 6.0 - Page 27 Empty Re: Banter Thread 6.0

Post by docstox12 Mon Jan 10, 2022 9:22 am

billg315 wrote:This is two weeks out. But did  @aiannone draw up this snow map at home? Laughing
Banter Thread 6.0 - Page 27 2b511110

Well, the pattern of the last two snowstorms has been for South Jersey, Jersey Shore and Long Island to be in the heavy snows.,Once these patterns set up, they repeat.We will see this month.
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 8641
Reputation : 222
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 74
Location : Monroe NY

rb924119 and SENJsnowman like this post

Back to top Go down

Banter Thread 6.0 - Page 27 Empty Re: Banter Thread 6.0

Post by SENJsnowman Mon Jan 10, 2022 10:06 am

docstox12 wrote:
billg315 wrote:This is two weeks out. But did  @aiannone draw up this snow map at home? Laughing
Banter Thread 6.0 - Page 27 2b511110

Well, the pattern of the last two snowstorms has been for South Jersey, Jersey Shore and Long Island to be in the heavy snows.,Once these patterns set up, they repeat.We will see this month.

Two things I’ve learned from Docstox to always watch out for. One is the pattern locking in after just a storm or two. More recently, the pattern has favored cutters and huggers right from the get-go. Are we finally locked in to a pattern that favors the coastal plain/eastern sections? Lord I sure hope so! lol

The other thing Doc has put on my radar is the concept of mean reversion. These 30 year running averages tend to know what they’re talking about, ha ha, so it always makes sense for something different to happen this year than in the most recent years past, or else the averages would always change.

This pattern could easily trend the other way, back to huggers and coastal pain, I mean rain. But in the meantime, man the coast could use a solid month or two of basking in the fruits of this productive pattern. Get us caught up on hitting that mean snowfall over a four year span ‘19-‘22. Makes a lot of sense and seems consistent and plausible with the overall synoptic set up…but pure banter nonetheless!

SENJsnowman
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1209
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2017-01-06
Age : 51
Location : Long Branch, NJ

kalleg likes this post

Back to top Go down

Banter Thread 6.0 - Page 27 Empty Re: Banter Thread 6.0

Post by docstox12 Mon Jan 10, 2022 10:52 am

SENJsnowman wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
billg315 wrote:This is two weeks out. But did  @aiannone draw up this snow map at home? Laughing
Banter Thread 6.0 - Page 27 2b511110

Well, the pattern of the last two snowstorms has been for South Jersey, Jersey Shore and Long Island to be in the heavy snows.,Once these patterns set up, they repeat.We will see this month.

Two things I’ve learned from Docstox to always watch out for. One is the pattern locking in after just a storm or two. More recently, the pattern has favored cutters and huggers right from the get-go. Are we finally locked in to a pattern that favors the coastal plain/eastern sections? Lord I sure hope so! lol

The other thing Doc has put on my radar is the concept of mean reversion. These 30 year running averages tend to know what they’re talking about, ha ha, so it always makes sense for something different to happen this year than in the most recent years past, or else the averages would always change.

This pattern could easily trend the other way, back to huggers and coastal pain, I mean rain. But in the meantime, man the coast could use a solid month or two of basking in the fruits of this productive pattern. Get us caught up on hitting that mean snowfall over a four year span ‘19-‘22. Makes a lot of sense and seems consistent and plausible with the overall synoptic set up…but pure banter nonetheless!

SENJ, so glad you are getting the goods this year!
Trend following and mean reversions via Fibonacci numbers are a few of the tools in my trading toolbox for stocks, bonds, commodities.
Now, what I am hoping for is a huge AREA wide Miller A climbing up the coast tapping into Gulf Moisture with a blocking High in just the right place so everybody gets 20 inches plus in our viewing area.Rare as Hens Teeth but it can happen!

PS: I HATE Miller B's,LOL.
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 8641
Reputation : 222
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 74
Location : Monroe NY

SENJsnowman likes this post

Back to top Go down

Banter Thread 6.0 - Page 27 Empty Re: Banter Thread 6.0

Post by nutleyblizzard Mon Jan 10, 2022 2:02 pm

Model runs today are suffering with a bad case of suppression depression. Sad
nutleyblizzard
nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1964
Reputation : 42
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 58
Location : Nutley, new jersey

Back to top Go down

Banter Thread 6.0 - Page 27 Empty Re: Banter Thread 6.0

Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 10, 2022 2:09 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:Model runs today are suffering with a bad case of suppression depression. Sad

You beat me to it.  When the PV is in Canada it becomes very hard for anything to materialize; esp when its centered east of Hudson Bay.  The pivot point for energy and storms to begin turning NE is off the coast, so like you said..suppression depression.

I dont like it.  I dont like it one bit

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"   WINTER 2024/2025 TOTALS 0.50
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 8487
Reputation : 302
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

Banter Thread 6.0 - Page 27 Empty Re: Banter Thread 6.0

Post by nutleyblizzard Mon Jan 10, 2022 2:41 pm

sroc4 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:Model runs today are suffering with a bad case of suppression depression. Sad

You beat me to it.  When the PV is in Canada it becomes very hard for anything to materialize; esp when its centered east of Hudson Bay.  The pivot point for energy and storms to begin turning NE is off the coast, so like you said..suppression depression.

I dont like it.  I dont like it one bit
We either need the PV to retrograde westward some or just relax a bit otherwise we’ll be in a very cold and dry pattern. At least we’re in a more favorable pattern for snow other than that -PNA crap fest in December. We just need to be patient. The pattern is still evolving.  In about a week we should be back in business as far as tracking more legit snow threats.


Last edited by nutleyblizzard on Mon Jan 10, 2022 2:42 pm; edited 1 time in total
nutleyblizzard
nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1964
Reputation : 42
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 58
Location : Nutley, new jersey

sroc4 and SENJsnowman like this post

Back to top Go down

Banter Thread 6.0 - Page 27 Empty Re: Banter Thread 6.0

Post by docstox12 Mon Jan 10, 2022 2:41 pm

sroc4 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:Model runs today are suffering with a bad case of suppression depression. Sad

You beat me to it.  When the PV is in Canada it becomes very hard for anything to materialize; esp when its centered east of Hudson Bay.  The pivot point for energy and storms to begin turning NE is off the coast, so like you said..suppression depression.

I dont like it.  I dont like it one bit


Too much cold air can be a snow lover's enemy.
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 8641
Reputation : 222
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 74
Location : Monroe NY

sroc4 likes this post

Back to top Go down

Banter Thread 6.0 - Page 27 Empty Re: Banter Thread 6.0

Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 10, 2022 2:51 pm

I'm glad Frank's scroll is up and running. Was getting ready to cliff jump. LoL.

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4004
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL

Back to top Go down

Banter Thread 6.0 - Page 27 Empty Re: Banter Thread 6.0

Post by crippo84 Mon Jan 10, 2022 3:03 pm

Yuck. Cold and dry can be as depressing as warm and wet during the winter. Sometimes I'm not sure which I'd prefer since they both throw a wrench in our snowfall opportunities. But when it's bone dry and bitterly cold, that's just...miserable.
crippo84
crippo84

Posts : 383
Reputation : 20
Join date : 2013-11-07
Age : 40
Location : East Village, NYC

Back to top Go down

Banter Thread 6.0 - Page 27 Empty Re: Banter Thread 6.0

Post by docstox12 Mon Jan 10, 2022 3:34 pm

crippo84 wrote:Yuck. Cold and dry can be as depressing as warm and wet during the winter. Sometimes I'm not sure which I'd prefer since they both throw a wrench in our snowfall opportunities. But when it's bone dry and bitterly cold, that's just...miserable.

Could not say this any better! If the cold is not accompanied by a heavy snowstorm and an extended snowpack,it is a waste of time.I would rather be on my deck with temps in the 70's smoking a cigar.
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 8641
Reputation : 222
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 74
Location : Monroe NY

crippo84 and phil155 like this post

Back to top Go down

Banter Thread 6.0 - Page 27 Empty Re: Banter Thread 6.0

Post by phil155 Mon Jan 10, 2022 3:43 pm

docstox12 wrote:
crippo84 wrote:Yuck. Cold and dry can be as depressing as warm and wet during the winter. Sometimes I'm not sure which I'd prefer since they both throw a wrench in our snowfall opportunities. But when it's bone dry and bitterly cold, that's just...miserable.

Could not say this any better! If the cold is not accompanied by a heavy snowstorm and an extended snowpack,it is a waste of time.I would rather be on my deck with temps in the 70's smoking a cigar.


Agree 100%

phil155
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 507
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2019-12-16

Back to top Go down

Banter Thread 6.0 - Page 27 Empty Re: Banter Thread 6.0

Post by rb924119 Mon Jan 10, 2022 4:10 pm

Yeesh, tough crowd in here today Sad first, everybody was miserable because it was winter but it wasn’t feeling like winter. Now, as advertised, it’s finally feeling like winter (and will continue to for the foreseeable future) but with mere mention that the first of SEVERAL snow chances may not work out for us, y’all are ready for winter to not feel like winter again?? I just don’t understand.

Good grief.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 7192
Reputation : 195
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Frank_Wx, sroc4, amugs, CPcantmeasuresnow and MattyICE like this post

Back to top Go down

Banter Thread 6.0 - Page 27 Empty Re: Banter Thread 6.0

Post by crippo84 Mon Jan 10, 2022 5:02 pm

rb924119 wrote:Yeesh, tough crowd in here today Sad first, everybody was miserable because it was winter but it wasn’t feeling like winter. Now, as advertised, it’s finally feeling like winter (and will continue to for the foreseeable future) but with mere mention that the first of SEVERAL snow chances may not work out for us, y’all are ready for winter to not feel like winter again?? I just don’t understand.

Good grief.

Haha oh no - don't get me wrong. I'm ready to see winter bring more than what it has so far. We definitely need a pattern change and hope for the best w.r.t. snowfall. But morning / evening jogs outside and leisurely trips to the driving range ain't happening with bright sunshine and temps in the upper teens and low 20s lol. Outdoors are cancelled. But at least we have NFL playoffs to enjoy inside with as many ice cold beers as possible.

Am I the only one that takes a 60 volt shock with anything I touch during the extremely cold and dry days? Need some moisture in the air!
crippo84
crippo84

Posts : 383
Reputation : 20
Join date : 2013-11-07
Age : 40
Location : East Village, NYC

rb924119 likes this post

Back to top Go down

Banter Thread 6.0 - Page 27 Empty Re: Banter Thread 6.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Jan 10, 2022 5:30 pm

docstox12 wrote:
crippo84 wrote:Yuck. Cold and dry can be as depressing as warm and wet during the winter. Sometimes I'm not sure which I'd prefer since they both throw a wrench in our snowfall opportunities. But when it's bone dry and bitterly cold, that's just...miserable.

Could not say this any better! If the cold is not accompanied by a heavy snowstorm and an extended snowpack,it is a waste of time.I would rather be on my deck with temps in the 70's smoking a cigar.

Doc with have a snowpack. It’s two and a half inches of solid snow and ice. I’m okay with it. I realize LI the coastal plain and NYC lost most of not all their snow but I’m good with the cold as long as the ground is white.

Keep up the good work RB and phenomenal call on this pattern change so far ahead of time and almost to the day. Unbelievable what you did.

To call snowstorms weeks or even several days ahead of time is almost impossible. All our experts can do is look for the favorable signs and they’ve been spot on with that.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7295
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 104
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

amugs and rb924119 like this post

Back to top Go down

Banter Thread 6.0 - Page 27 Empty Re: Banter Thread 6.0

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 27 of 30 Previous  1 ... 15 ... 26, 27, 28, 29, 30  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum