Banter Thread 6.0
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Re: Banter Thread 6.0
And thank you all for the birthday wishes! Belated or not, they all mean the same to me
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Banter Thread 6.0
rb924119 wrote:Happy Birthday, Dunz! Many happy and healthy more!!
And thank you all for the birthday wishes! Belated or not, they all mean the same to me
Happy birthday RB and Janet!
mikeypizano- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Banter Thread 6.0
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Banter Thread 6.0
amugs wrote:Delayed openings and closings are flying now. My school said 7:30 tonight well decide on a delay. 5AM we'll let u know if we close. Our administration just don't believe in snow days.
Waldwick is delayed for now, will let them know about 7:30 am for full closure if needed.
_________________
Janet
Snowfall winter of 2023-2024 17.5"
Snowfall winter of 2022-2023 6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: Banter Thread 6.0
hope you both enjoyed your days!!
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Re: Banter Thread 6.0
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Re: Banter Thread 6.0
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Banter Thread 6.0
amugs wrote:Ratios had to be 20 or 25:1 overnight for .35 QPF.
BOOOOM I was off by a smidgen!!
He's about 6 miles to my east
Just measured 9.3” of snow in Norwood as of 7 AM. The water content is only 0.46” which gives a 20:1 ratio! This is more reminiscent of lake effect snow which will make cleanup easy. pic.twitter.com/AAfoaeqvZy
— Joe DelliCarpini (@JoeDawg42) January 7, 2022
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Banter Thread 6.0
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Banter Thread 6.0
OKX continues Winter Weather Advisory till Jan 7, 12:00 PM EST https://t.co/EyHUUXAaMs pic.twitter.com/9H8njfoX2C
— New York Metro Weather (@nymetrowx) January 7, 2022
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Banter Thread 6.0
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Re: Banter Thread 6.0
Because of the great work our long range crew does, I got into a natural gas investment in December when the weather was mild and the price was low.I saw back then from the long range crew January would be colder.Natural gas back up over 4 bucks (dollars per MM btu) today and BOIL, the ETF I trade up today as well.
Some commodities prices are dependent upon long range weather forecasts and nat gas is one.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Banter Thread 6.0
Well, the pattern of the last two snowstorms has been for South Jersey, Jersey Shore and Long Island to be in the heavy snows.,Once these patterns set up, they repeat.We will see this month.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Banter Thread 6.0
docstox12 wrote:
Well, the pattern of the last two snowstorms has been for South Jersey, Jersey Shore and Long Island to be in the heavy snows.,Once these patterns set up, they repeat.We will see this month.
Two things I’ve learned from Docstox to always watch out for. One is the pattern locking in after just a storm or two. More recently, the pattern has favored cutters and huggers right from the get-go. Are we finally locked in to a pattern that favors the coastal plain/eastern sections? Lord I sure hope so! lol
The other thing Doc has put on my radar is the concept of mean reversion. These 30 year running averages tend to know what they’re talking about, ha ha, so it always makes sense for something different to happen this year than in the most recent years past, or else the averages would always change.
This pattern could easily trend the other way, back to huggers and coastal pain, I mean rain. But in the meantime, man the coast could use a solid month or two of basking in the fruits of this productive pattern. Get us caught up on hitting that mean snowfall over a four year span ‘19-‘22. Makes a lot of sense and seems consistent and plausible with the overall synoptic set up…but pure banter nonetheless!
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Re: Banter Thread 6.0
SENJsnowman wrote:docstox12 wrote:
Well, the pattern of the last two snowstorms has been for South Jersey, Jersey Shore and Long Island to be in the heavy snows.,Once these patterns set up, they repeat.We will see this month.
Two things I’ve learned from Docstox to always watch out for. One is the pattern locking in after just a storm or two. More recently, the pattern has favored cutters and huggers right from the get-go. Are we finally locked in to a pattern that favors the coastal plain/eastern sections? Lord I sure hope so! lol
The other thing Doc has put on my radar is the concept of mean reversion. These 30 year running averages tend to know what they’re talking about, ha ha, so it always makes sense for something different to happen this year than in the most recent years past, or else the averages would always change.
This pattern could easily trend the other way, back to huggers and coastal pain, I mean rain. But in the meantime, man the coast could use a solid month or two of basking in the fruits of this productive pattern. Get us caught up on hitting that mean snowfall over a four year span ‘19-‘22. Makes a lot of sense and seems consistent and plausible with the overall synoptic set up…but pure banter nonetheless!
SENJ, so glad you are getting the goods this year!
Trend following and mean reversions via Fibonacci numbers are a few of the tools in my trading toolbox for stocks, bonds, commodities.
Now, what I am hoping for is a huge AREA wide Miller A climbing up the coast tapping into Gulf Moisture with a blocking High in just the right place so everybody gets 20 inches plus in our viewing area.Rare as Hens Teeth but it can happen!
PS: I HATE Miller B's,LOL.
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Re: Banter Thread 6.0
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Re: Banter Thread 6.0
nutleyblizzard wrote:Model runs today are suffering with a bad case of suppression depression.
You beat me to it. When the PV is in Canada it becomes very hard for anything to materialize; esp when its centered east of Hudson Bay. The pivot point for energy and storms to begin turning NE is off the coast, so like you said..suppression depression.
I dont like it. I dont like it one bit
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35" WINTER 2024/2025 TOTALS 0.50
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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Re: Banter Thread 6.0
We either need the PV to retrograde westward some or just relax a bit otherwise we’ll be in a very cold and dry pattern. At least we’re in a more favorable pattern for snow other than that -PNA crap fest in December. We just need to be patient. The pattern is still evolving. In about a week we should be back in business as far as tracking more legit snow threats.sroc4 wrote:nutleyblizzard wrote:Model runs today are suffering with a bad case of suppression depression.
You beat me to it. When the PV is in Canada it becomes very hard for anything to materialize; esp when its centered east of Hudson Bay. The pivot point for energy and storms to begin turning NE is off the coast, so like you said..suppression depression.
I dont like it. I dont like it one bit
Last edited by nutleyblizzard on Mon Jan 10, 2022 2:42 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: Banter Thread 6.0
sroc4 wrote:nutleyblizzard wrote:Model runs today are suffering with a bad case of suppression depression.
You beat me to it. When the PV is in Canada it becomes very hard for anything to materialize; esp when its centered east of Hudson Bay. The pivot point for energy and storms to begin turning NE is off the coast, so like you said..suppression depression.
I dont like it. I dont like it one bit
Too much cold air can be a snow lover's enemy.
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Re: Banter Thread 6.0
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Re: Banter Thread 6.0
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Re: Banter Thread 6.0
crippo84 wrote:Yuck. Cold and dry can be as depressing as warm and wet during the winter. Sometimes I'm not sure which I'd prefer since they both throw a wrench in our snowfall opportunities. But when it's bone dry and bitterly cold, that's just...miserable.
Could not say this any better! If the cold is not accompanied by a heavy snowstorm and an extended snowpack,it is a waste of time.I would rather be on my deck with temps in the 70's smoking a cigar.
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Re: Banter Thread 6.0
docstox12 wrote:crippo84 wrote:Yuck. Cold and dry can be as depressing as warm and wet during the winter. Sometimes I'm not sure which I'd prefer since they both throw a wrench in our snowfall opportunities. But when it's bone dry and bitterly cold, that's just...miserable.
Could not say this any better! If the cold is not accompanied by a heavy snowstorm and an extended snowpack,it is a waste of time.I would rather be on my deck with temps in the 70's smoking a cigar.
Agree 100%
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Re: Banter Thread 6.0
Good grief.
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Re: Banter Thread 6.0
rb924119 wrote:Yeesh, tough crowd in here today first, everybody was miserable because it was winter but it wasn’t feeling like winter. Now, as advertised, it’s finally feeling like winter (and will continue to for the foreseeable future) but with mere mention that the first of SEVERAL snow chances may not work out for us, y’all are ready for winter to not feel like winter again?? I just don’t understand.
Good grief.
Haha oh no - don't get me wrong. I'm ready to see winter bring more than what it has so far. We definitely need a pattern change and hope for the best w.r.t. snowfall. But morning / evening jogs outside and leisurely trips to the driving range ain't happening with bright sunshine and temps in the upper teens and low 20s lol. Outdoors are cancelled. But at least we have NFL playoffs to enjoy inside with as many ice cold beers as possible.
Am I the only one that takes a 60 volt shock with anything I touch during the extremely cold and dry days? Need some moisture in the air!
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Re: Banter Thread 6.0
docstox12 wrote:crippo84 wrote:Yuck. Cold and dry can be as depressing as warm and wet during the winter. Sometimes I'm not sure which I'd prefer since they both throw a wrench in our snowfall opportunities. But when it's bone dry and bitterly cold, that's just...miserable.
Could not say this any better! If the cold is not accompanied by a heavy snowstorm and an extended snowpack,it is a waste of time.I would rather be on my deck with temps in the 70's smoking a cigar.
Doc with have a snowpack. It’s two and a half inches of solid snow and ice. I’m okay with it. I realize LI the coastal plain and NYC lost most of not all their snow but I’m good with the cold as long as the ground is white.
Keep up the good work RB and phenomenal call on this pattern change so far ahead of time and almost to the day. Unbelievable what you did.
To call snowstorms weeks or even several days ahead of time is almost impossible. All our experts can do is look for the favorable signs and they’ve been spot on with that.
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