Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday

Rain, snow, or shine - it is time to begin taking this threat a little more seriously. Now that we're in the 5-day range, it's best to start a new thread than clog up the long range. The EURO and its ensembles have shown two straight days of heavy snowfall over our area for this upcoming Sunday. The ICON model, which performed well in predicting yesterday's Roidzilla, now shows a strong signal as well. Do not pay attention to the thermals. Temps are the last thing to get figured out!

Here is the ICON







Let's see where the rest of this week takes us

Here's a scorecards so far:

GFS - shears out the southern s/w (short wave), thus preventing a phase with the northern s/w and any cyclogenesis

CMC - has weak southern s/w that ends up missing the phase with northern s/w

EURO/ICON - successfully phase the southern and northern s/w to develop a storm, but there are differences with timing which is why EURO is colder than ICON

Sounds like GFS is shearing out the southern energy beneath the anomalous PV in southern Canada. These pieces of energy come from the Pacific ocean where they are poorly sampled. Once the energy is sampled, hopefully by Friday or Saturday, we'll know for sure where and what this storm will do.

Reel it in Frank that euro run is amazing 14 inches on top of this wow. But being in jackpot at this lead is superstiously not good. Luckily I'm not that superstitious. Btw awesome job with this current/past storm. Wow won't know until last minute again. Whatever happened to having a good idea days out. I feel like we used to have that.

I've read that the 18Z GFS still south, but has ticked north and that's right where we want it at this point. True?

Irish wrote:I've read that the 18Z GFS still south, but has ticked north and that's right where we want it at this point.  True?

GFS is coming around to the EURO solution made BIG improvements at the H5 level.
The jet streaknwouldnsuport a bombgenesis type storm IF we get the ingredients. I posted about the Jet last night and will continue to harp on this. THIS WAS MISSING FROM THIS STORM! if we had the jet it would have been rivaled by the greatest storms to hit the area and that's a fact.
Anyway again Friday Clipper bring the cold and the air is dense and arctic. That system sets the stage for the Sunday one. Sit tight and let's hope for the best. 985 BM is a strong storm

Possible Miller A or B or a hybrid of both?

Do we now have more faith in the models?

Irish wrote:Possible Miller A or B or a hybrid of both?

Miller A

amugs wrote:

Irish wrote:Possible Miller A or B or a hybrid of both?

Miller A

Which storm type is better or more potent?

GEFS has some impressive members here

Irish wrote:

amugs wrote:

Irish wrote:Possible Miller A or B or a hybrid of both?

Miller A

Which storm type is better or more potent?

Well Miller A's IMO - somme blockbuster, prolific storms - BDB, 1996, 1948 1899 Blizzards

Done for the night posting ....UNLESS I see worth posting LOL!

amugs wrote:

Irish wrote:

amugs wrote:

Irish wrote:Possible Miller A or B or a hybrid of both?

Miller A

Which storm type is better or more potent?

Well Miller A's IMO - somme blockbuster, prolific storms - BDB, 1996, 1948 1899 Blizzards

Mugsy, I think the March 1993 was a Miller A.Too bad it was a coastal hugger, Mahwah had a full fledged blizzard that day but it turned to sleet.Still got 17 inches though.Out rb's parent's way in Greentown PA, they got 36 inches.

amugs wrote:

Irish wrote:

amugs wrote:

Irish wrote:Possible Miller A or B or a hybrid of both?

Miller A

Which storm type is better or more potent?

Well Miller A's IMO - somme blockbuster, prolific storms - BDB, 1996, 1948 1899 Blizzards

Believe the infamous March 1993 was as well!

aiannone wrote:DT’s write up
https://dtwxrisk.medium.com/looking-at-feb-7-and-feb-11-13-d8cc6386a552

Next Wednesday's /Thursday's to Saturday's, storm "massive" classic miller A (or C) sweet............... Hopefully this Sundays storm gets enough cold air injection.

We shall see, fun times ahead.

Joe Snow wrote:

aiannone wrote:DT’s write up
https://dtwxrisk.medium.com/looking-at-feb-7-and-feb-11-13-d8cc6386a552

Next Wednesday, storm "massive" classic miller A (or C) sweet............... Hopefully this Sundays storm gets enough cold air injection.

We shall see, fun times ahead.

I believe we'd want A as C would basically miss the entire area, no? Regardless, definitely exciting times ahead!

Irish wrote:

Joe Snow wrote:

aiannone wrote:DT’s write up
https://dtwxrisk.medium.com/looking-at-feb-7-and-feb-11-13-d8cc6386a552

Next Wednesday, storm "massive" classic miller A (or C) sweet............... Hopefully this Sundays storm gets enough cold air injection.

We shall see, fun times ahead.

I believe we'd want A as C would basically miss the entire area, no?  Regardless, definitely exciting times ahead!

Of course you would want an A, lots to track in the next 7 days...........

Ukie is on board for several inches along the coast and inland areas.

I know many will have looked at the surface maps overnight and said oh well models lost it.  Even the Euro went S&E and OTS.  Why?  The southern energy is strung out and doesnt interact much with the northern energy.  GFS actually had a bit more interaction but it was still too late. BUT keep this in mind between now and say 12z Friday to even 00z overnight Friday.  At this lead time models have been notoriously UNDER modeling the strength of the southern energy.  As we get into the 3days and under time frame and we start to get better sampling of this energy EVERY SINGLE system ends up stronger than what was prev modeled in the Md term.  Every single one all winter.  A stronger more consolidated southern wave would raise heights out front making room to come up AND allows for more interaction with the northern piece as well.  This is all in regards to the 500mb level

So keep these few thing in mind over the next few days.

Joe Snow wrote:

aiannone wrote:DT’s write up
https://dtwxrisk.medium.com/looking-at-feb-7-and-feb-11-13-d8cc6386a552

Next Wednesday's /Thursday's to Saturday's, storm "massive" classic miller A (or C) sweet............... Hopefully this Sundays storm gets enough cold air injection.

We shall see, fun times ahead.

Wait I need to catch up...there is storm possibly Sunday, then possibly next Wed as well??

sroc4 wrote:I know many will have looked at the surface maps overnight and said oh well models lost it.  Even the Euro went S&E and OTS.  Why?  The southern energy is strung out and doesnt interact much with the northern energy.  GFS actually had a bit more interaction but it was still too late. BUT keep this in mind between now and say 12z Friday to even 00z overnight Friday.  At this lead time models have been notoriously UNDERmodeling the strength of the southern energy.  As we get into the 3days and under time frame and we start to get better sampling of this energy EVERY SINGLE system ends up stronger than what was prev modeled in the Md term.  Every single one all winter.  A stronger more consolidated southern wave would raise heights out front making rom to come up AND allos for more interaction with the northern piece as well.  This is all in regards to the 500mb level

So keep these few thing in mind over the next few days.  

Very valid points scott and its taken me sadly 7 years to not wah wah over a model run losing a storm (well neither lost the storm, it just doesn't phase together) Its very close on 06z GFS I noted and I haven't seen it but I hear Icon (I hate that model) still some snow. So not letting anything get my hopes down or up before as you said Friday night, of course will still be checking in but its stress over the years that I put on myself that honestly is downright silly. It's weather, we cannot control it so enjoy it when it comes and try not to stress when it doesn't work out. Now its still hard for me during a storm but IMO i did pretty well this time with not moaning about it lol. that may also be because in my mind this was a jackpot for my area all things considered.

The storm for Sunday looks to be minimal at best as the Euro caved to the GFS currently. What will happen for sure is that really cold air will be ushering in come late Sunday- Monday. I'm looking to next week for something more impactful.

Irish wrote:The storm for Sunday looks to be minimal at best as the Euro caved to the GFS currently. What will happen for sure is that really cold air will be ushering in come late Sunday- Monday.  I'm looking to next week for something more impactful.

In reality the euro caved to the prev GFS runs showing a more sheared out system and no phasing; whereas the most recent GFS actually caved towards, but not exactly, to the prior Euro runs with more phasing and a more consolidated southern system.  

In reality nothing has caved to anything.  lol  Models arent quite sure yet.  I will say this though.  At this time I am favoring a more supressed soln because of how strong the -AO and -NAO are projected to be.  Combine that with a slight -EPO you get a really strong push with an arctic air mass.  On top of that the PNA is actually going to be in a fairly strong neg state leading to a flat southern flow.  

This system set up is eerily similar to the one that was suppressed last week Thursday, if you recall, ahead of this past Sunday/Mondays/Tues system that hit.  Looking at the teles mid week or even end of next week the NAO and AO look to relax and the PNA heads less negative again.  IMO this lends credence to much better odds for next week to hit due to less resistance from the arctic push.

We shall see though.  It all boils down to a few important factors for this Sundays chance.

1) Wave spacing/timing.  If too close to Fridays system, then Fridays storm may prevent the next system from raising heights on approach (also a concern with why last Thursdays system was so suppressed. It was on the heals of the lighter event from Monday)

2)  This point is VITALLY important as well.  The southern system MUST get out ahead of the northern Vort max.  If it does the northern system has a chance to phase/interact which will allow a chance to come up.  Timing of that though is still import to when it comes up.  IF the southern energy is even with or even slight behind then the N vort max/energy will do nothing but steer the system harmlessly OTS and no phase.

I'd like to see the 12z runs today before I start writing off Sunday. In fact I'd like to see tomorrow and Fridays 12z runs before I write it off too. lol. The southern energy actually comes ashore in the Pacific Northwest Thursday night and dives south where it hooks up with the STJet. The northern energy Thursday night is just diving across Alaska. I'd like to see more sampling from those on Friday morning before completely writing anything off. As sroc points out: the models do like to do the windshield wiper at this stage.