NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday

+28
Grselig
essexcountypete
mmanisca
mwilli
le88kb
CNWestMilford
SoulSingMG
SNOW MAN
dsix85
skinsfan1177
algae888
nutleyblizzard
frank 638
CPcantmeasuresnow
heehaw453
billg315
weatherwatchermom
sroc4
Snow88
Joe Snow
lja
aiannone
docstox12
dkodgis
amugs
Irish
jmanley32
Frank_Wx
32 posters

Page 1 of 11 1, 2, 3 ... 9, 10, 11  Next

Go down

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday Empty Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Feb 02, 2021 5:02 pm

Rain, snow, or shine - it is time to begin taking this threat a little more seriously. Now that we're in the 5-day range, it's best to start a new thread than clog up the long range. The EURO and its ensembles have shown two straight days of heavy snowfall over our area for this upcoming Sunday. The ICON model, which performed well in predicting yesterday's Roidzilla, now shows a strong signal as well. Do not pay attention to the thermals. Temps are the last thing to get figured out!

Here is the ICON

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday Icon-mslp-pcpn-frzn-neus-38-thumb-png-26b02eeb1222c2799f8cbdb632ce65b1

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday Icon-mslp-pcpn-frzn-neus-39-thumb-png-21dc2791889b3d3eaa57e08dcc04e380

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday Icon-mslp-pcpn-frzn-neus-40-thumb-png-ecaf1a43e82f44a6c6e7f4cf79ebcb85

Let's see where the rest of this week takes us

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20054
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday Empty Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Feb 02, 2021 5:09 pm

Here's a scorecards so far:

GFS - shears out the southern s/w (short wave), thus preventing a phase with the northern s/w and any cyclogenesis

CMC - has weak southern s/w that ends up missing the phase with northern s/w

EURO/ICON - successfully phase the southern and northern s/w to develop a storm, but there are differences with timing which is why EURO is colder than ICON

Sounds like GFS is shearing out the southern energy beneath the anomalous PV in southern Canada. These pieces of energy come from the Pacific ocean where they are poorly sampled. Once the energy is sampled, hopefully by Friday or Saturday, we'll know for sure where and what this storm will do.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20054
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday Empty Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday

Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 02, 2021 5:23 pm

Reel it in Frank that euro run is amazing 14 inches on top of this wow. But being in jackpot at this lead is superstiously not good. Luckily I'm not that superstitious. Btw awesome job with this current/past storm. Wow won't know until last minute again. Whatever happened to having a good idea days out. I feel like we used to have that.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18381
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday Empty Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday

Post by Irish Tue Feb 02, 2021 5:35 pm

I've read that the 18Z GFS still south, but has ticked north and that's right where we want it at this point. True?

Irish

Posts : 428
Reputation : 18
Join date : 2019-01-16
Age : 42
Location : Old Bridge, NJ

Back to top Go down

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday Empty Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday

Post by amugs Tue Feb 02, 2021 5:52 pm

@Irish wrote:I've read that the 18Z GFS still south, but has ticked north and that's right where we want it at this point.  True?
GFS is coming around to the EURO solution made BIG improvements at the H5 level.
The jet streaknwouldnsuport a bombgenesis type storm IF we get the ingredients. I posted about the Jet last night and will continue to harp on this. THIS WAS MISSING FROM THIS STORM! if we had the jet it would have been rivaled by the greatest storms to hit the area and that's a fact.
Anyway again Friday Clipper bring the cold and the air is dense and arctic. That system sets the stage for the Sunday one. Sit tight and let's hope for the best. 985 BM is a strong storm

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12383
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Radz likes this post

Back to top Go down

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday Empty Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday

Post by Irish Tue Feb 02, 2021 6:10 pm

Possible Miller A or B or a hybrid of both?

Irish

Posts : 428
Reputation : 18
Join date : 2019-01-16
Age : 42
Location : Old Bridge, NJ

Back to top Go down

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday Empty Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday

Post by dkodgis Tue Feb 02, 2021 7:16 pm

Do we now have more faith in the models? Very Happy
dkodgis
dkodgis
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1570
Reputation : 98
Join date : 2013-12-29

Back to top Go down

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday Empty Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday

Post by amugs Tue Feb 02, 2021 7:30 pm

@Irish wrote:Possible Miller A or B or a hybrid of both?

Miller A

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12383
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday Empty Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday

Post by Irish Tue Feb 02, 2021 7:32 pm

@amugs wrote:
@Irish wrote:Possible Miller A or B or a hybrid of both?

Miller A

Which storm type is better or more potent?

Irish

Posts : 428
Reputation : 18
Join date : 2019-01-16
Age : 42
Location : Old Bridge, NJ

Back to top Go down

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday Empty Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday

Post by amugs Tue Feb 02, 2021 7:36 pm

GEFS has some impressive members here
Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday EtQuP7EWQAAPwsZ?format=jpg&name=medium

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12383
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday Empty Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday

Post by amugs Tue Feb 02, 2021 7:37 pm

@Irish wrote:
@amugs wrote:
@Irish wrote:Possible Miller A or B or a hybrid of both?

Miller A

Which storm type is better or more potent?

Well Miller A's IMO - somme blockbuster, prolific storms - BDB, 1996, 1948 1899 Blizzards

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12383
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Irish likes this post

Back to top Go down

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday Empty Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday

Post by amugs Tue Feb 02, 2021 7:39 pm

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday EtQtKvSWgAE81c5?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

Done for the night posting ....UNLESS I see worth posting LOL!

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12383
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

oldtimer likes this post

Back to top Go down

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday Empty Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday

Post by docstox12 Tue Feb 02, 2021 7:51 pm

@amugs wrote:
@Irish wrote:
@amugs wrote:
@Irish wrote:Possible Miller A or B or a hybrid of both?

Miller A

Which storm type is better or more potent?

Well Miller A's IMO - somme blockbuster, prolific storms - BDB, 1996, 1948 1899 Blizzards

Mugsy, I think the March 1993 was a Miller A.Too bad it was a coastal hugger, Mahwah had a full fledged blizzard that day but it turned to sleet.Still got 17 inches though.Out rb's parent's way in Greentown PA, they got 36 inches.
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7254
Reputation : 215
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 70
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday Empty Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday

Post by aiannone Tue Feb 02, 2021 7:53 pm

DT’s write up
https://dtwxrisk.medium.com/looking-at-feb-7-and-feb-11-13-d8cc6386a552
aiannone
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4265
Reputation : 89
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday Empty Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday

Post by lja Tue Feb 02, 2021 7:55 pm

@amugs wrote:
@Irish wrote:
@amugs wrote:
@Irish wrote:Possible Miller A or B or a hybrid of both?

Miller A

Which storm type is better or more potent?

Well Miller A's IMO - somme blockbuster, prolific storms - BDB, 1996, 1948 1899 Blizzards

Believe the infamous March 1993 was as well!

lja

Posts : 6
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2013-01-16
Location : NYC

Back to top Go down

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday Empty Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday

Post by Joe Snow Tue Feb 02, 2021 10:18 pm

@aiannone wrote:DT’s write up
https://dtwxrisk.medium.com/looking-at-feb-7-and-feb-11-13-d8cc6386a552

Next Wednesday's /Thursday's to Saturday's, storm "massive" classic miller A (or C) sweet............... Hopefully this Sundays storm gets enough cold air injection.

We shall see, fun times ahead.


Last edited by Joe Snow on Tue Feb 02, 2021 10:22 pm; edited 1 time in total
Joe Snow
Joe Snow
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 881
Reputation : 7
Join date : 2014-02-12
Age : 59
Location : Kings Park, NY

Back to top Go down

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday Empty Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday

Post by Irish Tue Feb 02, 2021 10:20 pm

@Joe Snow wrote:
@aiannone wrote:DT’s write up
https://dtwxrisk.medium.com/looking-at-feb-7-and-feb-11-13-d8cc6386a552

Next Wednesday, storm "massive" classic miller A (or C) sweet............... Hopefully this Sundays storm gets enough cold air injection.

We shall see, fun times ahead.

I believe we'd want A as C would basically miss the entire area, no? Regardless, definitely exciting times ahead!

Irish

Posts : 428
Reputation : 18
Join date : 2019-01-16
Age : 42
Location : Old Bridge, NJ

Back to top Go down

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday Empty Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday

Post by Joe Snow Tue Feb 02, 2021 10:24 pm

@Irish wrote:
@Joe Snow wrote:
@aiannone wrote:DT’s write up
https://dtwxrisk.medium.com/looking-at-feb-7-and-feb-11-13-d8cc6386a552

Next Wednesday, storm "massive" classic miller A (or C) sweet............... Hopefully this Sundays storm gets enough cold air injection.

We shall see, fun times ahead.

I believe we'd want A as C would basically miss the entire area, no?  Regardless, definitely exciting times ahead!

Of course you would want an A, lots to track in the next 7 days...........
Joe Snow
Joe Snow
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 881
Reputation : 7
Join date : 2014-02-12
Age : 59
Location : Kings Park, NY

Back to top Go down

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday Empty Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday

Post by Snow88 Wed Feb 03, 2021 12:35 am

Ukie is on board for several inches along the coast and inland areas.
Snow88
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2118
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 32
Location : Brooklyn, NY

Back to top Go down

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday Empty Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday

Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 03, 2021 8:14 am

I know many will have looked at the surface maps overnight and said oh well models lost it.  Even the Euro went S&E and OTS.  Why?  The southern energy is strung out and doesnt interact much with the northern energy.  GFS actually had a bit more interaction but it was still too late. BUT keep this in mind between now and say 12z Friday to even 00z overnight Friday.  At this lead time models have been notoriously UNDER modeling the strength of the southern energy.  As we get into the 3days and under time frame and we start to get better sampling of this energy EVERY SINGLE system ends up stronger than what was prev modeled in the Md term.  Every single one all winter.  A stronger more consolidated southern wave would raise heights out front making room to come up AND allows for more interaction with the northern piece as well.  This is all in regards to the 500mb level

So keep these few thing in mind over the next few days.


Last edited by sroc4 on Thu Feb 04, 2021 9:16 am; edited 1 time in total

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6965
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

essexcountypete likes this post

Back to top Go down

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday Empty Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday

Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Feb 03, 2021 9:20 am

@Joe Snow wrote:
@aiannone wrote:DT’s write up
https://dtwxrisk.medium.com/looking-at-feb-7-and-feb-11-13-d8cc6386a552

Next Wednesday's /Thursday's to Saturday's, storm "massive" classic miller A (or C) sweet............... Hopefully this Sundays storm gets enough cold air injection.

We shall see, fun times ahead.
Wait I need to catch up...there is storm possibly Sunday, then possibly next Wed as well??
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 3016
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 57
Location : Hazlet Township

Back to top Go down

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday Empty Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday

Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 03, 2021 9:32 am

@sroc4 wrote:I know many will have looked at the surface maps overnight and said oh well models lost it.  Even the Euro went S&E and OTS.  Why?  The southern energy is strung out and doesnt interact much with the northern energy.  GFS actually had a bit more interaction but it was still too late. BUT keep this in mind between now and say 12z Friday to even 00z overnight Friday.  At this lead time models have been notoriously UNDERmodeling the strength of the southern energy.  As we get into the 3days and under time frame and we start to get better sampling of this energy EVERY SINGLE system ends up stronger than what was prev modeled in the Md term.  Every single one all winter.  A stronger more consolidated southern wave would raise heights out front making rom to come up AND allos for more interaction with the northern piece as well.  This is all in regards to the 500mb level

So keep these few thing in mind over the next few days.  
Very valid points scott and its taken me sadly 7 years to not wah wah over a model run losing a storm (well neither lost the storm, it just doesn't phase together) Its very close on 06z GFS I noted and I haven't seen it but I hear Icon (I hate that model) still some snow. So not letting anything get my hopes down or up before as you said Friday night, of course will still be checking in but its stress over the years that I put on myself that honestly is downright silly. It's weather, we cannot control it so enjoy it when it comes and try not to stress when it doesn't work out. Now its still hard for me during a storm but IMO i did pretty well this time with not moaning about it lol. that may also be because in my mind this was a jackpot for my area all things considered.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18381
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday Empty Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday

Post by Irish Wed Feb 03, 2021 9:37 am

The storm for Sunday looks to be minimal at best as the Euro caved to the GFS currently. What will happen for sure is that really cold air will be ushering in come late Sunday- Monday. I'm looking to next week for something more impactful.

Irish

Posts : 428
Reputation : 18
Join date : 2019-01-16
Age : 42
Location : Old Bridge, NJ

Back to top Go down

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday Empty Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday

Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 03, 2021 9:49 am

@Irish wrote:The storm for Sunday looks to be minimal at best as the Euro caved to the GFS currently. What will happen for sure is that really cold air will be ushering in come late Sunday- Monday.  I'm looking to next week for something more impactful.

In reality the euro caved to the prev GFS runs showing a more sheared out system and no phasing; whereas the most recent GFS actually caved towards, but not exactly, to the prior Euro runs with more phasing and a more consolidated southern system.  

In reality nothing has caved to anything.  lol  Models arent quite sure yet.  I will say this though.  At this time I am favoring a more supressed soln because of how strong the -AO and -NAO are projected to be.  Combine that with a slight -EPO you get a really strong push with an arctic air mass.  On top of that the PNA is actually going to be in a fairly strong neg state leading to a flat southern flow.  

This system set up is eerily similar to the one that was suppressed last week Thursday, if you recall, ahead of this past Sunday/Mondays/Tues system that hit.  Looking at the teles mid week or even end of next week the NAO and AO look to relax and the PNA heads less negative again.  IMO this lends credence to much better odds for next week to hit due to less resistance from the arctic push.

We shall see though.  It all boils down to a few important factors for this Sundays chance.

1) Wave spacing/timing.  If too close to Fridays system, then Fridays storm may prevent the next system from raising heights on approach (also a concern with why last Thursdays system was so suppressed. It was on the heals of the lighter event from Monday)

2)  This point is VITALLY important as well.  The southern system MUST get out ahead of the northern Vort max.  If it does the northern system has a chance to phase/interact which will allow a chance to come up.  Timing of that though is still import to when it comes up.  IF the southern energy is even with or even slight behind then the N vort max/energy will do nothing but steer the system harmlessly OTS and no phase.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6965
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Irish likes this post

Back to top Go down

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday Empty Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday

Post by billg315 Wed Feb 03, 2021 9:55 am

I'd like to see the 12z runs today before I start writing off Sunday. In fact I'd like to see tomorrow and Fridays 12z runs before I write it off too. lol. The southern energy actually comes ashore in the Pacific Northwest Thursday night and dives south where it hooks up with the STJet. The northern energy Thursday night is just diving across Alaska. I'd like to see more sampling from those on Friday morning before completely writing anything off. As sroc points out: the models do like to do the windshield wiper at this stage.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 3681
Reputation : 182
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 47
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday Empty Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 1 of 11 1, 2, 3 ... 9, 10, 11  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum