Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday

by **sroc4** Wed Feb 03, 2021 9:49 am

Irish wrote:The storm for Sunday looks to be minimal at best as the Euro caved to the GFS currently. What will happen for sure is that really cold air will be ushering in come late Sunday- Monday. I'm looking to next week for something more impactful.

In reality the euro caved to the prev GFS runs showing a more sheared out system and no phasing; whereas the most recent GFS actually caved towards, but not exactly, to the prior Euro runs with more phasing and a more consolidated southern system.

In reality nothing has caved to anything. lol Models arent quite sure yet. I will say this though. At this time I am favoring a more supressed soln because of how strong the -AO and -NAO are projected to be. Combine that with a slight -EPO you get a really strong push with an arctic air mass. On top of that the PNA is actually going to be in a fairly strong neg state leading to a flat southern flow.

This system set up is eerily similar to the one that was suppressed last week Thursday, if you recall, ahead of this past Sunday/Mondays/Tues system that hit. Looking at the teles mid week or even end of next week the NAO and AO look to relax and the PNA heads less negative again. IMO this lends credence to much better odds for next week to hit due to less resistance from the arctic push.

We shall see though. It all boils down to a few important factors for this Sundays chance.

1) Wave spacing/timing. If too close to Fridays system, then Fridays storm may prevent the next system from raising heights on approach (also a concern with why last Thursdays system was so suppressed. It was on the heals of the lighter event from Monday)

2) This point is VITALLY important as well. The southern system MUST get out ahead of the northern Vort max. If it does the northern system has a chance to phase/interact which will allow a chance to come up. Timing of that though is still import to when it comes up. IF the southern energy is even with or even slight behind then the N vort max/energy will do nothing but steer the system harmlessly OTS and no phase.

by **billg315** Wed Feb 03, 2021 9:55 am

I'd like to see the 12z runs today before I start writing off Sunday. In fact I'd like to see tomorrow and Fridays 12z runs before I write it off too. lol. The southern energy actually comes ashore in the Pacific Northwest Thursday night and dives south where it hooks up with the STJet. The northern energy Thursday night is just diving across Alaska. I'd like to see more sampling from those on Friday morning before completely writing anything off. As sroc points out: the models do like to do the windshield wiper at this stage.

by **sroc4** Wed Feb 03, 2021 9:57 am

FWIW the end of the 12z NAM the northern energy is interacting with the southern branch.

by **billg315** Wed Feb 03, 2021 9:58 am

And I see sroc addressed this in detail while I was writing. Hate it when that happens. lol

Scott, admit it, you favor the suppression only because you want to draw another shoe diagram on the map. lol

by **sroc4** Wed Feb 03, 2021 10:10 am

billg315 wrote:And I see sroc addressed this in detail while I was writing. Hate it when that happens. lol

Scott, admit it, you favor the suppression only because you want to draw another shoe diagram on the map. lol

Bill I was SOOOOO goiong to find that and include that in the write up, but work dictated I didnt have the time. But I too was thinking about it when writing about last Thursday's system. lol!

by **heehaw453** Wed Feb 03, 2021 10:26 am

This storm is probably still on the table IMO. The ST needs to just get out ahead of the NS and phase in to bring it up. It's like sroc said comes down to timing. We should know in a day whether this is feasible. The TPV in the middle of the country will make it bit more thread the needle I think.

12Z Icon has the phase and storm hits the area. IT's been consistently showing this.

by **sroc4** Wed Feb 03, 2021 10:28 am

sroc4 wrote:
billg315 wrote:And I see sroc addressed this in detail while I was writing. Hate it when that happens. lol

Scott, admit it, you favor the suppression only because you want to draw another shoe diagram on the map. lol

Bill I was SOOOOO goiong to find that and include that in the write up, but work dictated I didnt have the time. But I too was thinking about it when writing about last Thursday's system.

GRAF - Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 2 Yyy10

by **billg315** Wed Feb 03, 2021 10:29 am

sroc4 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
billg315 wrote:And I see sroc addressed this in detail while I was writing. Hate it when that happens. lol

Scott, admit it, you favor the suppression only because you want to draw another shoe diagram on the map. lol

Bill I was SOOOOO goiong to find that and include that in the write up, but work dictated I didnt have the time. But I too was thinking about it when writing about last Thursday's system.

Lmao.

by **sroc4** Wed Feb 03, 2021 10:35 am

Here is the ICON...grain of salt: Using it to show what we want to see

Notice our southern energy(1) is consolitaed as seen by the reds and is out in front of the northern energy(2). Gives room to raise heights outs out ahead(black arrow) which allows the storm to come up the coast. We dont want 1 to look like a line of strung out yellows located under or even behind 2 (blue circle, dashed black lines).

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Feb 03, 2021 10:47 am

sroc4 wrote:Here is the ICON...grain of salt: Using it to show what we want to see

Notice our southern energy(1) is consolitaed as seen by the reds and is out in front of the northern energy(2). Gives room to raise heights outs out ahead(black arrow) which allows the storm to come up the coast. We dont want 1 to look like a line of strung out yellows located under or even behind 2 (blue circle, dashed black lines).

Yup

Great post

by **billg315** Wed Feb 03, 2021 11:12 am

12z GFS holds serve with the northern and southern energy passing like ships in the night. Got a couple more days to see how this all plays out.

by **sroc4** Wed Feb 03, 2021 12:16 pm

sroc4 wrote:Here is the ICON...grain of salt: Using it to show what we want to see

Notice our southern energy(1) is consolitaed as seen by the reds and is out in front of the northern energy(2). Gives room to raise heights outs out ahead(black arrow) which allows the storm to come up the coast. We dont want 1 to look like a line of strung out yellows located under or even behind 2 (blue circle, dashed black lines).

Todays 12z GFS shows what I mentioned above. You can see the main energy isnt very strong as seen by nothing more than yellow, and its for the most part strung out and most importantly its a tad behind our N energy. This steers our weak southern energy harmlessly OTS.

GRAF - Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 2 Gfs-de22

Here is the wind field for the 500mb GFS 12z. You can see how the Pac jet and the Polar/arctic jet remains seperate (black arrows). Again we need one of or a combo of a few things in order for this to work out

1) stronger more consolidated ball of southern energy (which is doable IMO considering the undermodeling of this this winter as indicated in prev write up)

2) Some form of amplification out west which would give the flow a more meridonial wave pattern (indicated by blue lines) which would allow interactions sooner between the N and S energy. This is less likely IMO due to the strongly -PNA

GRAF - Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 2 Gfs-de23

by **Irish** Wed Feb 03, 2021 1:05 pm

Word is that there will be a significant retreat of the polar vortex cold that was being shown for next week versus a couple days ago. Supposedly, 8-10 degrees warmer than thought it would be, so more normal temps.

That true?

by **aiannone** Wed Feb 03, 2021 1:18 pm

12z Euro strings out southern energy and slides out well ahead of the northern energy. No storm to speak of.

by **billg315** Wed Feb 03, 2021 1:20 pm

Irish wrote:Word is that there will be a significant retreat of the polar vortex cold that was being shown for next week versus a couple days ago. Supposedly, 8-10 degrees warmer than thought it would be, so more normal temps.

That true?

Have not heard that. It does appear the extreme cold Monday and Tuesday next week eased up a bit on the GFS so that may be true but the cold is still there beyond that. In fact the last GFS 12z run has a stretch where after a brief warm-up to the upper 30s ahead of the Wednesday system, the temperature in NJ for almost the entire state doesn't get above freezing from 2/10 through the morning of 2/17.

by **amugs** Wed Feb 03, 2021 1:23 pm

Great illustrations SROC and I concur - the strong PV is shredding teh storm and the Friday system has to hi tail it out the way for the heights to rise on teh EC for this to gain latitude. WE need the Euro solutions from Monday and yesterday 12Z for this to work but as we know a fair amount time.
The mush are the TV Mets calling for a snowstorm on Sunday, they are the real KOD!! Last storm called for 6-12" we want them to say snow showers or the such and then its game on!!

by **billg315** Wed Feb 03, 2021 1:25 pm

aiannone wrote:12z Euro strings out southern energy and slides out well ahead of the northern energy. No storm to speak of.

Yeah, complete swing and a miss. Just as sroc said above, with the southern energy strung out and no amplification out front it just slides off to the south of us. It never even consolidates enough to form much of a storm to our south.

by **amugs** Wed Feb 03, 2021 1:43 pm

billg315 wrote:
Irish wrote:Word is that there will be a significant retreat of the polar vortex cold that was being shown for next week versus a couple days ago. Supposedly, 8-10 degrees warmer than thought it would be, so more normal temps.

That true?

Have not heard that. It does appear the extreme cold Monday and Tuesday next week eased up a bit on the GFS so that may be true but the cold is still there beyond that. In fact the last GFS 12z run has a stretch where after a brief warm-up to the upper 30s ahead of the Wednesday system, the temperature in NJ for almost the entire state doesn't get above freezing from 2/10 through the morning of 2/17.

Bite me SE Ridge

GRAF - Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 2 Gfs_t210

by **amugs** Wed Feb 03, 2021 1:43 pm

12Z EURO FLIZZARD for Super Bowl

GRAF - Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 2 1612666800-8T4tAuO1fxs

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Wed Feb 03, 2021 1:53 pm

amugs wrote:
billg315 wrote:
Irish wrote:Word is that there will be a significant retreat of the polar vortex cold that was being shown for next week versus a couple days ago. Supposedly, 8-10 degrees warmer than thought it would be, so more normal temps.

That true?

Have not heard that. It does appear the extreme cold Monday and Tuesday next week eased up a bit on the GFS so that may be true but the cold is still there beyond that. In fact the last GFS 12z run has a stretch where after a brief warm-up to the upper 30s ahead of the Wednesday system, the temperature in NJ for almost the entire state doesn't get above freezing from 2/10 through the morning of 2/17.

Bite me SE Ridge

Please be wrong. Just the term SE Ridge turns my blood cold

by **amugs** Wed Feb 03, 2021 1:55 pm

CP it seems to be a day or two of Normal temps but we'll see how things evolve.

by **frank 638** Wed Feb 03, 2021 1:59 pm

amugs wrote:12Z EURO FLIZZARD for Super Bowl

is there any hope with this storm or it’s over

by **sroc4** Wed Feb 03, 2021 2:06 pm

give it 24-36hrs Frank to see if the storm comes back. If its close by tomorrow eve then there is still hope. If not move on to the next. As stated earlier the pattern IMO dictates a miss to the S&E is most likely so expectations need to follow accordingly for now.

by **heehaw453** Wed Feb 03, 2021 2:18 pm

The SE ridge gets over done all winter by models. Cold will dump somewhere in the US. It may be further west, but that maybe ok. If we get the TPV too close to us, then it's cold and dry. I'd rather try and get baroclinic zone closer to us and give us storm chances.

by **sroc4** Wed Feb 03, 2021 2:20 pm

Nothing you(anyone who looked) saw today beyond day 5-7 will verify. No concerns at this time

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Wed Feb 03, 2021 11:21 pm

This one looks to be on life support on tonights runs.

As always lets wait until we get a good sampling from land which I don't think will be until Friday. Not holding my breath for this one, but there's still almost 2 feet of snow on the ground so I'm good for several days.

by **nutleyblizzard** Thu Feb 04, 2021 5:23 am

6Z GFS is closer to the coast. Brings light snow into the area.

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