Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

I think the only way we'll see the higher end totals would be to pool our cash and get Frank on an earlier flight. I see a few open seats on the red eye tonight

essexcountypete wrote:I think the only way we'll see the higher end totals would be to pool our cash and get Frank on an earlier flight. I see a few open seats on the red eye tonight

This actually is the only way, and I would be open to it

12z EURO insists on a 2 part. Wide spread 2-4" thursday afternoon/evening, then thursday night through friday evening and areas i-95 east pick up their 4-8" in total

Yeah gfs and Euro similar in that regard where folks to the east (mainly LI) don't do too well from the front end of the system tomorrow but catch some snow on the back end Friday. We shall see.

There is the WAA which I suspect will travel a little north of where the Euro has it based on the jet streak and another wave that rides the baroclinic zone that sets up to our SE. Those waves that ride baroclinic can produce more than being shown currently. Just a slightly stronger low makes a big difference.

Euro low trajectory and placement keeps this as mainly snow which not having strong frontogenesis I would tend to believe more snow than not.

heehaw453 wrote:There is the WAA which I suspect will travel a little north of where the Euro has it based on the jet streak and another wave that rides the baroclinic zone that sets up to our SE.  Those waves that ride baroclinic can produce more than being shown currently.  Just a slightly stronger low makes a big difference.

Euro low trajectory and placement keeps this as mainly snow which not having strong frontogenesis I would tend to believe more snow than not.

Follow the seasonal trends. Euro and GFS will come north with tonight’s runs.

nutleyblizzard wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:There is the WAA which I suspect will travel a little north of where the Euro has it based on the jet streak and another wave that rides the baroclinic zone that sets up to our SE.  Those waves that ride baroclinic can produce more than being shown currently.  Just a slightly stronger low makes a big difference.

Euro low trajectory and placement keeps this as mainly snow which not having strong frontogenesis I would tend to believe more snow than not.

Follow the seasonal trends. Euro and GFS will come north with tonight’s runs.

The Super Bowl storm trended south.

18z NAM's heaviest banding shifted slightly south (about 15-20 miles) from the last run. Also a little lighter on the totals. But still generally a 4-8" storm for most of the area. The heaviest band is now oriented from Philadelphia/ChestCo/MontCo/BucksCo in PA to Hunterdon/Mercer/Somerset/Middlesex in NJ and then onto LI.

18z NAM

I'm seeing reports of 4-8" tomorrow and 1-3" on Friday. That'd be great!

Irish wrote:I'm seeing reports of 4-8" tomorrow and 1-3" on Friday. That'd be great!

You look to be in a good spot for this one.

CBS-AM says "possible 8-12" and then Craig Allen comes on minutes later and says 4-8" is still the forecast.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
355 PM EST Wed Feb 17 2021

CTZ009-NJZ004-006-104>108-NYZ071>075-078-176>179-181200-
/O.UPG.KOKX.WS.A.0003.210218T1100Z-210219T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0009.210218T0900Z-210220T0000Z/
Southern Fairfield-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-
Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
355 PM EST Wed Feb 17 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM
EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Snowfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches
are expected Thursday, with total snowfall accumulations of 5
to 9 inches by the end of the event on Friday. A light glaze of
ice accumulation is possible Thursday Night as well.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut
and southeast New York.

Wwa for 5 to 9. Would normally be a wsw but due to duration it was made a wwa. Not sure I've seen that b4 due to duration. I wonder how much actually sticks arpund as it's go be light most the time. I don't foresee any road issues really.

WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
accumulations of 4 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of a
light glaze.

* WHERE...Portions of central, northern, northwest and southern
New Jersey, southeast Pennsylvania and northern Delaware.

* WHEN...From 4 AM Thursday to 10 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions could impact the Thursday morning, Thursday evening,
and Friday morning commutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow overspreads the area early Thursday
morning and could be heavy at times in the morning and early
afternoon. A change to sleet and freezing rain is expected by
late afternoon or evening. Light wintry precipitation will
likely continue into the daytime hours on Friday.

Seems like a long duration for not much accumulation

Winter Storm Warning for me in Sussex, 5-8 inches of heavy snow.

Honestly, that's right in the sweet spot for me. I got my 2+ ft. event this winter. Give me 6 inches of nice snow and I will ALWAYS be satisfied.

I have a WWA as well with up to 9 possible. Funny if we max out with only a WAA

aiannone wrote:

im in kinnelon at the bottom tip of the darker orange there.. praying this nears 12

Okay the Warning in NJ makes no sense and a WWA in Upton for the same amount of snow and duration. I do not care but my question is do they have different criteria for a warning versus WWA? Upton talked about the duration being why they made it a WWA versus warning but the total for me is 5-9 which is higher than some of the warnings in NJ.

aiannone wrote:

Over such a long period I wonder how much actually accumulates, i am thinking roads stay wet entire time, and only colder surfaces and snow cover will see accumulation, am I wrong?

The "long duration" aspect of this not being a WSW for some seems a bit misguided from the NWS to me in that, for many people the bulk of that accumulation WILL be in a 12 hour span -- primarily from about 6 a.m. tomorrow morning to 6 p.m. in the evening. Most of what falls after that will either be light/and or mixed with sleet/frz rain. So if you're in a 5-9 or 6-8 zone, I'm thinking you're getting most of that during the day tomorrow. The exception might be Long Island where you might add about half of your total on Friday so it really will be a 24-plus hour event.
Where I am, I'd bet that 95% or more of my 4-6 (or isolated 8") will fall between sunrise and sunset tomorrow. Of course Mt Holly has me in a WSW so that is different from Upton.

jmanley32 wrote:

aiannone wrote:

Over such a long period I wonder how much actually accumulates, i am thinking roads stay wet entire time, and only colder surfaces and snow cover will see accumulation, am I wrong?

Jman I don't think that will happen. Surface temps are expected to be at or below freezing for most of this event and the snow should start accumulating early before the sun angle comes into play so it should accumulate from the get-go and build on that. Also check out my post from a couple minutes ago. I don't think those totals are truly spread over 24-36 hours. I think most falls in about 12 hours and then just light and mixed stuff from tomorrow evening through Friday afternoon (again, except Long Island which could see a back-end thump).

LOL. The difference between GFS and GFSv16 is pretty dramatic as to where it places heavier snowfall amounts. This is 24-36 hours out. The models are really not having much consensus even at this range.

e.g., GFSv16 puts DC around 9" of snow within 30 hours and GFS puts DC at 2" in that same 30 hours.

Actually, if that "trailer" system or the sort of second, secondary low does get going Friday early enough to dump snow on NJ/NY I think the storm totals may be underdone because you could possibly add another 1-3 on Friday but even if that's factored into the 6-9 (which it may be since tomorrow seems more like a 4-6) keep in mind that's not evenly spread over 36 hours. It's more like a 12 hour 6" storm tomorrow and then a 6 hour 3" storm on Friday. Almost two storms not one.

heehaw453 wrote:LOL.  The difference between GFS and GFSv16 is pretty dramatic as to where it places heavier snowfall amounts.  This is 24-36 hours out.  The models are really not having much consensus even at this range.

e.g., GFSv16 puts DC around 9" of snow within 30 hours and GFS puts DC at 2" in that same 30 hours.

18z GFS vs 18z GFS v16 LOL