Long Range Discussion 22.0

Momma Mia that is one hell of a arctic outbreak forecasted- Grid gonna be taxed like Docstox when he trades Nat Gas!!!

A little nervous the PV gets too far south from a stormy standpoint. But yea, that is a verrrry cold look. Record breaking.

Frank_Wx wrote:A little nervous the PV gets too far south from a stormy standpoint. But yea, that is a verrrry cold look. Record breaking.

Cold and dry is no fun at all

No it's not but let it happen first before we go to that rabbit hole. In the meantime here in next weekend.

This is LUNACY for an ensemble mean:

If the storm on Monday does not pan out, the next time period to watch is 21st through 28th. Especially 21st-22nd and 25th-27th. No doubt we will have the cold air. Question will be can we get the critical pieces of upper air features to be placed favorably. We need the EPO, PNA, AO and NAO ridges in the right spots. It's one thing for them to be negative (or positive) but if they are oriented in a way that disrupts the overall flow then we won't see anything come together.

I have found predicting this #winter to be challenging so why should February be any different? GFS has been suggesting a bit more confidently yet another stretched #PolarVortex as we approach February. Would certainly bias #colder East US but cold polar cap heights keep me wary pic.twitter.com/avGQsN7foE

— Judah Cohen (@judah47) January 14, 2022

Seems the 12z gfs picked back up on the signal for next weekend. Looked rather enticing in fact. (Oh lord help me lol)

Aside from a possibly good looking pattern, are there any storm signals that are evolving favorably? I know TWC isn't the greatest but there doesn't seem to be anything on the horizon until maybe the end of the month

Larry, here's my take. After 2 or 3 consistent GFS runs, I think the result shows up on TWC. And then after 2-3 runs of not showing up on the GFS, TWC drops the storm from the forecast. Same thing as far the amounts of precip, storm timing etc...

Just looking at the recent and present gfs operational runs, there has been a signal for a clipper midweek, a storm that misses to our south late week and then a potential coastal storm for next Sat/Sun. They've all looked decent on individual prior runs the last few days and all look like hot poo as of now, at least on the GFS.

So, I think after this weekend's last system clears out on Monday, the potential for anything next week will emerge more clearly on the models.

Also, we are just now, as of today, entering the third week of January. Rb wan kenobi was very steadfast in his assessment that this is when the active period first begins. Finally, plenty of cold air for next week, and that's the one ingredient that needs to be there from the start I guess.

OK, there's my optimistic attempt at answering your question from a total novice-weenie.

SENJsnowman wrote:Larry, here's my take. After 2 or 3 consistent GFS runs, I think the result shows up on TWC. And then after 2-3 runs of not showing up on the GFS, TWC drops the storm from the forecast. Same thing as far the amounts of precip, storm timing etc...

Just looking at the recent and present gfs operational runs, there has been a signal for a clipper midweek, a storm that misses to our south late week and then a potential coastal storm for next Sat/Sun. They've all looked decent on individual prior runs the last few days and all look like hot poo as of now, at least on the GFS.

So, I think after this weekend's last system clears out on Monday, the potential for anything next week will emerge more clearly on the models.

Also, we are just now, as of today, entering the third week of January. Rb wan kenobi was very steadfast in his assessment that this is when the active period first begins. Finally, plenty of cold air for next week, and that's the one ingredient that needs to be there from the start I guess.

OK, there's my optimistic attempt at answering your question from a total novice-weenie.

Thanks, let's hope something comes together for us

Frank_Wx wrote:If the storm on Monday does not pan out, the next time period to watch is 21st through 28th. Especially 21st-22nd and 25th-27th. No doubt we will have the cold air. Question will be can we get the critical pieces of upper air features to be placed favorably. We need the EPO, PNA, AO and NAO ridges in the right spots. It's one thing for them to be negative (or positive) but if they are oriented in a way that disrupts the overall flow then we won't see anything come together.

These time periods still remain of interest. The wave on the 21st probably not, but we have one on the 23rd and still the one I like the most near the 25th. I won’t talk much beyond that…but I’m still not completely sold on February. If anything, I see the dreaded -PNA trying to make a comeback

Frank_Wx wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:If the storm on Monday does not pan out, the next time period to watch is 21st through 28th. Especially 21st-22nd and 25th-27th. No doubt we will have the cold air. Question will be can we get the critical pieces of upper air features to be placed favorably. We need the EPO, PNA, AO and NAO ridges in the right spots. It's one thing for them to be negative (or positive) but if they are oriented in a way that disrupts the overall flow then we won't see anything come together.

These time periods still remain of interest. The wave on the 21st probably not, but we have one on the 23rd and still the one I like the most near the 25th. I won’t talk much beyond that…but I’m still not completely sold on February. If anything, I see the dreaded -PNA trying to make a comeback

Alright,  so this winter is almost over, lol!  Just kidding.

18z GFS with a bomb day 7 snowstorm.

nutleyblizzard wrote:18z GFS with a bomb day 7 snowstorm.

At least it's something to hope for...

nutleyblizzard wrote:18z GFS with a bomb day 7 snowstorm.

No, just no stop lol

18z GFS has the tip of florida panhandle with a foot of snow....theres just nothing right about that, we arent getting good snows but florida is

Looking forward to seeing what's in store between the 25th-26th and 28th-29th.

Come on people wake up the euro just dropped a bomb on us

CMC gives us a complete hecs for the 22nd!!

adamfitz1969 wrote:CMC gives us a complete hecs for the 22nd!!

Actually it was the euro and it’s for late Friday night early Saturday morning

chief7 wrote:

adamfitz1969 wrote:CMC gives us a complete hecs for the 22nd!!

Actually it was the euro and it’s for late Friday night early Saturday morning

Thank you for the correction! Im surprised no one is commenting on those runs!

adamfitz1969 wrote:

chief7 wrote:

adamfitz1969 wrote:CMC gives us a complete hecs for the 22nd!!

Actually it was the euro and it’s for late Friday night early Saturday morning

Thank you for the correction! Im surprised no one is commenting on those runs!

I didn’t comment cause I can’t see the EURO run. Tropical Tidbits says the EURO server is down.

Aha there it is. Taken verbatim with 1.5 QPF with temps in the teens during the event it’s a 2 footer. CMC shows a huge hit as well. GFS shows a very strong storm although OTS. The difference with next weekends potential compared to tomorrows rainstorm is that we have a high in the right spot this time. Currently the models see the Day 6 potential then lose it only to bring it back again. Plenty of time to track, but after last nights Euro and CMC runs I’m sure Frank will have a more detailed discussion on it.

nutleyblizzard wrote:
Aha there it is. Taken verbatim with 1.5 QPF with temps in the teens during the event it’s a 2 footer. CMC shows a huge hit as well. GFS shows a very strong storm although OTS. The difference with next weekends potential compared to tomorrows rainstorm is that we have a high in the right spot this time. Currently the models see the Day 6 potential then lose it only to bring it back again. Plenty of time to track, but after last nights Euro and CMC runs I’m sure Frank will have a more detailed discussion on it.

wow that deayh band right over my house, ill take 1 for me plz. Not getting sucking in though, thursday.

jmanley32 wrote:

nutleyblizzard wrote:
Aha there it is. Taken verbatim with 1.5 QPF with temps in the teens during the event it’s a 2 footer. CMC shows a huge hit as well. GFS shows a very strong storm although OTS. The difference with next weekends potential compared to tomorrows rainstorm is that we have a high in the right spot this time. Currently the models see the Day 6 potential then lose it only to bring it back again. Plenty of time to track, but after last nights Euro and CMC runs I’m sure Frank will have a more detailed discussion on it.

wow that deayh band right over my house, ill take 1 for me plz. Not getting sucking in though, thursday.

Good call Jon! As for myself, I’ll be getting sucked in. Probably in the next 24 hours, if the signal persists…