Long Range Discussion 22.0

GFS does depict a coastal storm but not until Sunday which fringes the area.

I know this may be an annoying question, and I know in general in order to get a big costal storm everything has to come together just right, but given the current set up with the atmospheric conditions we have, is a major storm , or even just a moderate impact storm likely, or is the set up unlikely to come together

And for comparison here is Euro 06Z showing the phase complete with the s/s s/w and the back s/w is separated from this.  This is about wave spacing at this point.

lglickman1 wrote:I know this may be an annoying question, and I know in general in order to get a big costal storm everything has to come together just right, but given the current set up with the atmospheric conditions we have, is a major storm , or even just a moderate impact storm likely, or is the set up unlikely to come together

Again, just my weather weenie take. If you have to choose between likely and unlikely 4-5 days out, odds say choose unlikely every time, imo. I think once all the indications are solid (esp model agreement) within 48 hrs, it shifts to more likely. I kinda got a 24 hr rule these days- that’s when I’m willing to start the hype machine. Lol

In general, we still have the sub tropical jet willing to play while multiple northern stream vorts continue to drop in and through. This current setup features some disagreement about just WHEN the southern stream held back vort ejects to the East. Sooner ejection and you’re dealing with more of a Fri/Sat impact. Later and it could me sun/mon. Later still it could be tues/wedn. And we’re starting to see that play out on the models. I don’t have a handle yet about when it finally ejects, but when it does, my money is on a northern vort being somewhere close enough to make it interesting. I think it’s just a matter of time/timing before we get something big. But this pattern - although frustrating - is nice because we can get smaller events like Thursday or like a potential late phase or a partial/sloppy phase. I know we’re all big game hunting…I think we’re heading that way soon and likely without a ton of lead time/notice.

GEFS ticked west…

MattyICE wrote:In general, we still have the sub tropical jet willing to play while multiple northern stream vorts continue to drop in and through. This current setup features some disagreement about just WHEN the southern stream held back vort ejects to the East. Sooner ejection and you’re dealing with more of a Fri/Sat impact. Later and it could me sun/mon. Later still it could be tues/wedn. And we’re starting to see that play out on the models. I don’t have a handle yet about when it finally ejects, but when it does, my money is on a northern vort being somewhere close enough to make it interesting. I think it’s just a matter of time/timing before we get something big. But this pattern - although frustrating - is nice because we can get smaller events like Thursday or like a potential late phase or a partial/sloppy phase. I know we’re all big game hunting…I think we’re heading that way soon and likely without a ton of lead time/notice.

I agree. This pattern has big time potential. It’s not a matter of if but when, and when it does happen we may end up with a 3 day lead time.

Looks like a scenario where we miss a phase, and the trailing energy comes in Sunday instead is also now on the table. Lets see what Euro does

amugs wrote:The JET streak can help and aid in th expansion of the precipitation lift and enhance its northward propagation. A stronger jet as being shown on teh EURO and NOW 12Z NAM shows this very nicely.
Thursday's storm have impacts on Saturday is possible - so much energy flying around its quite hard to understand what the models are keying on.

The bold phrase here peeps. As so many have said we may have 48 to 36 hour day lead time with some of these storms. So much to figure out. Lets take it one at a time and get Thursday's snow then look to Saturday or Sunday/Monday or Tuesdayish or Thursdayish .......that's how many vorts/energy pieces are flying around etc.