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DECEMBER 8TH 2021---First real accumulating snow potential ????

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Post by sroc4 Mon Dec 06, 2021 11:51 am

heehaw453 wrote:The 12Z GFS looked like another good step.  The trough is sharper and more vigorous s/w than 06Z.  We say this a lot but this wasn't far from being a moderate event.  A bit sharper trough and it'd tug the mid level storm enough to do that.  As long as we continue to improve and not give back on the models from here on out this will at least coat our ground.

CMC is in line with these changes as well. Def a more expansive precip shield as well. Direct result of the trends to the shrpness of the trough..better lift


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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by aiannone Mon Dec 06, 2021 1:11 pm

Well Euro was quite ugly. Get out the sunglasses
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 06, 2021 1:28 pm

Unless he issued an updated forecast, I’m not in agreement with the 3-6 call for our area. I’m actually thinking quite the opposite and we’ll see very little. The 500mb forecast made slight improvements but overall it’s still a pretty ugly picture. Not to mention, winds out of the S-SE will keep surface temps marginal. We’re not seeing high rates from this event. Any accumulation will happen on non-paved surfaces.

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Dec 06, 2021 2:35 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Unless he issued an updated forecast, I’m not in agreement with the 3-6 call for our area. I’m actually thinking quite the opposite and we’ll see very little. The 500mb forecast made slight improvements but overall it’s still a pretty ugly picture. Not to mention, winds out of the S-SE will keep surface temps marginal. We’re not seeing high rates from this event. Any accumulation will happen on non-paved surfaces.

Steve DiMartino's impact map has been adjusted.  I can't imagine many folks would have confidence in a moderate event based on what's on the table right now.

DECEMBER 8TH 2021---First real accumulating snow potential ???? - Page 2 Nynjpa12

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Post by aiannone Mon Dec 06, 2021 3:28 pm

DECEMBER 8TH 2021---First real accumulating snow potential ???? - Page 2 Sn10_a38
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Post by heehaw453 Mon Dec 06, 2021 4:01 pm

Strong mid level energy well inside the BM. That verbatim would be sig snowfall for NYC and points east IMO. Not saying I trust the NAM but its mid-level energy looks very nice. If not as progressive then you'd have something much bigger.

DECEMBER 8TH 2021---First real accumulating snow potential ???? - Page 2 Nam20



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Post by GreyBeard Mon Dec 06, 2021 8:31 pm

"Official" NWS snow map shows more (not by much) city and long island than areas N&W.

https://www.weather.gov/images/okx/StormTotalSnow.png

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Post by aiannone Mon Dec 06, 2021 9:29 pm

0z NAM caved and lost the storm. Ohh well lol
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 06, 2021 11:35 pm

aiannone wrote:0z NAM caved and lost the storm. Ohh well lol
meaning ots or it just poof vanished ? lol
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Post by sroc4 Tue Dec 07, 2021 5:39 am

Consensus across the global and SR models is a miss OTS with a colder but dryer soln. There might still be some flurries or light snow flying around but nothing crazy.  I guess there is still a little wiggle room to come back N a little, but not much. Personally I’d much rather miss on the cold side than the warm side.  Not to beat the dead horse but once again there is nothing on the Pac side of things to allow the N energy to dig and phase faster, and nothing on the Atlantic side to slow the S energy down in time to allow the N energy to catch up. Needed to be baby bear, but looks more like we will be having mostly momma bears porridge tomorrow.  

DECEMBER 8TH 2021---First real accumulating snow potential ???? - Page 2 Baby_b11

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by SENJsnowman Tue Dec 07, 2021 7:54 am

Oh well! This was a fun ride for me to get the season started. My neck of the woods usually doesn't have anything to track until late Dec at the earliest, and lately it's been more like late January. So, I guess I'll enjoy the 'nice' weather that's coming up, while tracking the progress on our hopeful pattern flip too!

And a very sincere thanks to all the members who put in their time and know-how to post such helpful and entertaining info!  DECEMBER 8TH 2021---First real accumulating snow potential ???? - Page 2 1f443

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 07, 2021 8:12 am

Had a feeling this one was too good to be true…

We wait

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Dec 07, 2021 12:00 pm

It's going to be a formidable storm that will affect the Canadian Maritimes and not so much the US East Coast. There wasn't any blocking to help buckle the flow. We always speak to a pattern w.r.t. wintry weather chances and this is another good example of threading the needle that didn't work out.

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Post by amugs Wed Dec 08, 2021 7:38 am

Flakes will be a flying if this sim radar is correct and that is all we could ask for in this pattern. Big model fail from a cutter to a storm 250 miles off the coast.


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Post by phil155 Wed Dec 08, 2021 7:26 pm

amugs wrote:Flakes will be a flying if this sim radar is correct and that is all we could ask for in this pattern. Big model fail from a cutter to a storm 250 miles off the coast.


Some nice mood flakes here in edison

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Post by amugs Wed Dec 08, 2021 7:56 pm

Snowing here I'm Hillsdale since about 7PM wooohoooo!!

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Post by Radz Thu Dec 09, 2021 7:17 am

Received a dusting here 27* currently
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Post by docstox12 Thu Dec 09, 2021 7:27 am

Had a coating of snow last night on grass, roof, deck.
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Post by amugs Thu Dec 09, 2021 7:41 am

As I drove to work this morning - "The Castle on the Hill" Saddle River Ridge had a coating of snow on the colder surfaces and two houses had it on their lawns. Amazing what a 50' elevation (?) can do here. The abandoned house had a heavy coating on its roof - GW at its best with the other homes light coatings! Shut off your heat people and you'll reap the benefits of this glorious natural phenomenon we call ....SNOW!!! LOL!

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Post by brownie Thu Dec 09, 2021 7:54 am

I woke up to a dusting of snow on the grass, roof, deck, and cars this morning.   Very Happy

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