Re: DECEMBER 8TH 2021---First real accumulating snow potential ????

by **amugs** Mon Dec 06, 2021 10:28 am

sroc4 wrote:NAM was a Suffolk County special

What else is new these days?? Laughing

A tad more amplification is still possible in this mal pattern we are in. IF we had a sharper PNA or a bit of a block then it could be really interesting overall as it stands a little teaser but mood happening event. He does a good job depicting upper levels comparisons.

06Z and 12Z difference from Nam 12k. There is a still higher ceiling for this storm believe it or not. Earlier consolidation of the vort max and a bit more amplification in the shortwave we could tap into. Have time too but idk if it will actually happen or not. No guarantees pic.twitter.com/SQUOwrWiMg
— BGWX (@BradyBGWX) December 6, 2021

Non Twitter folks here are the maps:
DECEMBER 8TH 2021---First real accumulating snow potential ???? - Page 2 FF7xL_tX0AMFokk?format=jpg&name=large

DECEMBER 8TH 2021---First real accumulating snow potential ???? - Page 2 FF7xOnTXMAEpDwf?format=jpg&name=large

by **heehaw453** Mon Dec 06, 2021 10:55 am

The 12Z GFS looked like another good step. The trough is sharper and more vigorous s/w than 06Z. We say this a lot but this wasn't far from being a moderate event. A bit sharper trough and it'd tug the mid level storm enough to do that. As long as we continue to improve and not give back on the models from here on out this will at least coat our ground.

by **sroc4** Mon Dec 06, 2021 11:51 am

heehaw453 wrote:The 12Z GFS looked like another good step. The trough is sharper and more vigorous s/w than 06Z. We say this a lot but this wasn't far from being a moderate event. A bit sharper trough and it'd tug the mid level storm enough to do that. As long as we continue to improve and not give back on the models from here on out this will at least coat our ground.

CMC is in line with these changes as well. Def a more expansive precip shield as well. Direct result of the trends to the shrpness of the trough..better lift

by **aiannone** Mon Dec 06, 2021 1:11 pm

Well Euro was quite ugly. Get out the sunglasses

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Dec 06, 2021 1:28 pm

Unless he issued an updated forecast, I’m not in agreement with the 3-6 call for our area. I’m actually thinking quite the opposite and we’ll see very little. The 500mb forecast made slight improvements but overall it’s still a pretty ugly picture. Not to mention, winds out of the S-SE will keep surface temps marginal. We’re not seeing high rates from this event. Any accumulation will happen on non-paved surfaces.

by **heehaw453** Mon Dec 06, 2021 2:35 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Unless he issued an updated forecast, I’m not in agreement with the 3-6 call for our area. I’m actually thinking quite the opposite and we’ll see very little. The 500mb forecast made slight improvements but overall it’s still a pretty ugly picture. Not to mention, winds out of the S-SE will keep surface temps marginal. We’re not seeing high rates from this event. Any accumulation will happen on non-paved surfaces.

Steve DiMartino's impact map has been adjusted. I can't imagine many folks would have confidence in a moderate event based on what's on the table right now.

DECEMBER 8TH 2021---First real accumulating snow potential ???? - Page 2 Nynjpa12

by **aiannone** Mon Dec 06, 2021 3:28 pm

by **heehaw453** Mon Dec 06, 2021 4:01 pm

Strong mid level energy well inside the BM. That verbatim would be sig snowfall for NYC and points east IMO. Not saying I trust the NAM but its mid-level energy looks very nice. If not as progressive then you'd have something much bigger.

DECEMBER 8TH 2021---First real accumulating snow potential ???? - Page 2 Nam20

by **GreyBeard** Mon Dec 06, 2021 8:31 pm

"Official" NWS snow map shows more (not by much) city and long island than areas N&W.

https://www.weather.gov/images/okx/StormTotalSnow.png

by **aiannone** Mon Dec 06, 2021 9:29 pm

0z NAM caved and lost the storm. Ohh well lol

by **jmanley32** Mon Dec 06, 2021 11:35 pm

aiannone wrote:0z NAM caved and lost the storm. Ohh well lol

meaning ots or it just poof vanished ? lol

by **sroc4** Tue Dec 07, 2021 5:39 am

Consensus across the global and SR models is a miss OTS with a colder but dryer soln. There might still be some flurries or light snow flying around but nothing crazy. I guess there is still a little wiggle room to come back N a little, but not much. Personally I’d much rather miss on the cold side than the warm side. Not to beat the dead horse but once again there is nothing on the Pac side of things to allow the N energy to dig and phase faster, and nothing on the Atlantic side to slow the S energy down in time to allow the N energy to catch up. Needed to be baby bear, but looks more like we will be having mostly momma bears porridge tomorrow.

DECEMBER 8TH 2021---First real accumulating snow potential ???? - Page 2 Baby_b11

by **SENJsnowman** Tue Dec 07, 2021 7:54 am

Oh well! This was a fun ride for me to get the season started. My neck of the woods usually doesn't have anything to track until late Dec at the earliest, and lately it's been more like late January. So, I guess I'll enjoy the 'nice' weather that's coming up, while tracking the progress on our hopeful pattern flip too!

And a very sincere thanks to all the members who put in their time and know-how to post such helpful and entertaining info! DECEMBER 8TH 2021---First real accumulating snow potential ???? - Page 2 1f443

DECEMBER 8TH 2021---First real accumulating snow potential ???? - Page 2 1f443

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Dec 07, 2021 8:12 am

Had a feeling this one was too good to be true…

We wait

by **heehaw453** Tue Dec 07, 2021 12:00 pm

It's going to be a formidable storm that will affect the Canadian Maritimes and not so much the US East Coast. There wasn't any blocking to help buckle the flow. We always speak to a pattern w.r.t. wintry weather chances and this is another good example of threading the needle that didn't work out.

by **amugs** Wed Dec 08, 2021 7:38 am

Flakes will be a flying if this sim radar is correct and that is all we could ask for in this pattern. Big model fail from a cutter to a storm 250 miles off the coast.

Storm develops well offshore today, as it makes it's closest pass , watch for an increase in some snow, with wet snow and rain to the SE right into tomorrow morning. pic.twitter.com/LFOae7a3zj
— Anthony Siciliano (@AMSweather) December 8, 2021

by **phil155** Wed Dec 08, 2021 7:26 pm

amugs wrote:Flakes will be a flying if this sim radar is correct and that is all we could ask for in this pattern. Big model fail from a cutter to a storm 250 miles off the coast.

Storm develops well offshore today, as it makes it's closest pass , watch for an increase in some snow, with wet snow and rain to the SE right into tomorrow morning. pic.twitter.com/LFOae7a3zj
— Anthony Siciliano (@AMSweather) December 8, 2021

Some nice mood flakes here in edison

by **amugs** Wed Dec 08, 2021 7:56 pm

Snowing here I'm Hillsdale since about 7PM wooohoooo!!

by **Radz** Thu Dec 09, 2021 7:17 am

Received a dusting here 27* currently

by **docstox12** Thu Dec 09, 2021 7:27 am

Had a coating of snow last night on grass, roof, deck.

by **amugs** Thu Dec 09, 2021 7:41 am

As I drove to work this morning - "The Castle on the Hill" Saddle River Ridge had a coating of snow on the colder surfaces and two houses had it on their lawns. Amazing what a 50' elevation (?) can do here. The abandoned house had a heavy coating on its roof - GW at its best with the other homes light coatings! Shut off your heat people and you'll reap the benefits of this glorious natural phenomenon we call ....SNOW!!! LOL!

by **brownie** Thu Dec 09, 2021 7:54 am

I woke up to a dusting of snow on the grass, roof, deck, and cars this morning. Very Happy

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