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DECEMBER 8TH 2021---First real accumulating snow potential ????

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Post by sroc4 Sun Dec 05, 2021 9:03 am

rb924119 wrote:Now that I've had a chance to glance at tonight's 00z suites coming in, I like the trends aloft even though the surface maps are not yet where I think they will end up.

00z GFS Ensemble 500mb height anomaly trend:

DECEMBER 8TH 2021---First real accumulating snow potential ???? Gfs-en11

00z GEM/CMC 500mb height anomaly trend:

DECEMBER 8TH 2021---First real accumulating snow potential ???? Gem_z510

Morning everyone!!!!!  Here is the Link to Rays video he posted in the Discussions thread.  I encourage everyone to take a listen.  Its phenominal:  

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1gonDCUaWVuA3Grk8Khi_qgno0tRQHRm5/view?usp=sharing

Ray phenomenal video!  Thank you.  I wish I could do video's too.  I feel like it would save me so much time.  I am; however, going to have to respectfully disagree with a couple of points you make.  Well maybe not disagree but more point out a few key areas that I did not see you comment on and what I feel are just as important, if not more important.  

I will focus on the GFS only to make my points.  Some of this was already discussed in my last write up.  Ray in your video you discuss the trough split of the Pac energy and discuss the piece ejecting out vs the piece that backs up off the WC.  It felt like you were inferring that the energy that gets ejected ends up being the energy that is our system.  This part I disagree with.  

DECEMBER 8TH 2021---First real accumulating snow potential ???? Gfs_0610

Above is hr6, or about 7am this am, from this am's 06z GFS.  In addition to the trough split from the Pac energy as outlined in the video, there is a second trough split associated with the trough in the Sub Trop region.  Its this energy that gets ejected that will eventually give rise to the LP that develops near or just off the coast.  The energy that gets ejected from the Pac energy ends up strung out along the boundary layer that develops from the system that passes late tomorrow night.  The other area not mentioned in the video are the two circles  not labeled.  The one over the N plains CONUS is the late Mon system that heads towards Greenland.  The one to its N is another key factor IMHO that I mentioned in my prior discussion.  Ill get back to this point shortly

Fast forward to Hr 72:

DECEMBER 8TH 2021---First real accumulating snow potential ???? Gfs_0613
DECEMBER 8TH 2021---First real accumulating snow potential ???? Gfs_0614


Above is the same image zoomed in on the CONUS view.  Notice that there ae two troughs out lined. One N of th GL and the other digging into the plains.  Each has its own pivot point.  What seems to be very clear to me in the evolution in the modeling is the positioning of that trough N of the great lakes. This feature is absolutely vital in preventing heights from increasing ahead of the system.  

Look below to Hr 81 on this mornings 6z.  BUT FIRST lets look at the same time stamp Wed 15z from yesterdays 12z GFS that I posted in my prev discussion and compare it to this mornings 06z run and pay attention to where that trough N of the GL is.  With it further east and north on yesterdays 12z run there is no resistance to the height increase from the trough digging into the Plains phasing into the boundary layer.  The result is a LP track into the Tenn Vally, and a much warmer soln on yest 12z. Vs the 6z from this am the placement of the GL trough is acting to limit the ability to raise heights leading to a colder soln relatively speaking when comp to12z yest.  


DECEMBER 8TH 2021---First real accumulating snow potential ???? Gfs-de29
DECEMBER 8TH 2021---First real accumulating snow potential ???? Gfs_0615

DECEMBER 8TH 2021---First real accumulating snow potential ???? Gfs-de30
DECEMBER 8TH 2021---First real accumulating snow potential ???? Gfs_0616

DECEMBER 8TH 2021---First real accumulating snow potential ???? Gfs_1210
DECEMBER 8TH 2021---First real accumulating snow potential ???? Gfs_6z10


Briefly getting back to this point I made at the beginning of todays discussion:

The other area not mentioned in the video are the two circles  not labeled.  The one over the N plains CONUS is the late Mon system that heads towards Greenland.  The one to its N is another key factor IMHO that I mentioned in my prior discussion.  

The trend for the Monday system is to be further S from prev.  First image is yesterdays 12z map and the second is this mornings 6z both valid for 15z Wed.  

DECEMBER 8TH 2021---First real accumulating snow potential ???? Gfs-de31
DECEMBER 8TH 2021---First real accumulating snow potential ???? Gfs_0617

You can see the center is now south of Greenland's SE tip compared to yesterdays 12z run where it was due east of Greenland's SE tip.  In addition to that, look at the map below.  It shows the GFS trends.  The area I have circled is the energy I have labeled #3 in the discussion maps above and you can clearly see it is trending darker blue which means lower pressure in the area just N of the GL.  Again this energy/feature offers the only resistance against the otherwise immediate surge of the warm layers as energy #2 phases with #1 because both the Pac and Atlantic pattern does not offer any real help at all.    

DECEMBER 8TH 2021---First real accumulating snow potential ???? Gfs_tr10

Myself, Ray(rb, Frank, Heehaw, Mugsy, Al etc., have all pointed out that we are not in a great pattern for snow.  But as I have also pointed out in the past, it can still snow in shitty patterns when things come together just right.  We just need BABY BEAR.  (My Baby Bear here on Long Island may be slightly diff than Baby bear N&W of NYC, but you get the point)

We still have a little ways to go to see how we trend last minute.  The GFS is def still the warmest and wettest soln but it is on its own at the moment and has 100% been trending colder due to the things I outlined above.  The Euro, CMC, and now NAM(although NAM still not in its wheelhouse yet) all have a much more suppressed colder soln overall.  To me the trend towards a colder soln has been clear across all models, keeping the entire region, including the immediate coast in play for accumulation, but remember very tiny changes at 500mb can lead to much larger changes at the surface for better or worse (warmer or colder)(wetter or dryer-OTS) relative to your specific location so stay tuned as we are approaching game time.

WE TRACK!!!!!  What a Face  What a Face  What a Face  

DECEMBER 8TH 2021---First real accumulating snow potential ???? Baby_b10


Last edited by sroc4 on Sun Dec 05, 2021 9:29 am; edited 3 times in total

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Post by amugs Sun Dec 05, 2021 9:16 am

Excellent write up as always SROC. And love the Baby Bear Image and explanation!!!
I just wrote in the other thread that Mondays system plays a crucial role in Tuesdays storm. Trend has been colder for sure which is great to see. We shall see what the next 12 -24 hours bring us. Fun times ahead to track.

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Post by Wheezer Sun Dec 05, 2021 9:36 am

Much appreciated when you guys discuss your differences in a detailed respectful way. Keep up the good work

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Post by aiannone Sun Dec 05, 2021 10:31 am

Nam is back on board at 12zDECEMBER 8TH 2021---First real accumulating snow potential ???? C2e22810
DECEMBER 8TH 2021---First real accumulating snow potential ???? E3b2f010
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Post by aiannone Sun Dec 05, 2021 10:34 am

Steve D Map:
DECEMBER 8TH 2021---First real accumulating snow potential ???? 5fa06010
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Post by heehaw453 Sun Dec 05, 2021 12:05 pm

Most of the 12Z guidance wants nothing to do with this threat. Flat as a pancake trough, no height rises on EC and really no shortwave energy. The CMC at the H5 is dramatically different than 3 runs ago. Sampling of the shortwave energy occurs tonight and by tomorrow 12Z the verdict will be reached IMO.

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Post by sroc4 Sun Dec 05, 2021 12:57 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Most of the 12Z guidance wants nothing to do with this threat.  Flat as a pancake trough, no height rises on EC and really no shortwave energy.  The CMC at the H5 is dramatically different than 3 runs ago.  Sampling of the shortwave energy occurs tonight and by tomorrow 12Z the verdict will be reached IMO.  

Hopefully it's a case of over correcting followed by the slow walk back towards where it should be.  The windshield wipers. Euro is rolling now. Lets see

DECEMBER 8TH 2021---First real accumulating snow potential ???? ?u=https%3A%2F%2F68.media.tumblr.com%2F53701beeae4644636a929cc48fab9c7c%2Ftumblr_nix5wuE1sU1r8dy8go1_500

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Post by sroc4 Sun Dec 05, 2021 1:09 pm

Euro looking like suppression depression. Run not finished though

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Post by dkodgis Sun Dec 05, 2021 7:59 pm

Any model updates?
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Post by sroc4 Sun Dec 05, 2021 8:15 pm

I’m at UBS arena hopeful to watch the Islanders bleeding stop.

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Post by rb924119 Sun Dec 05, 2021 8:29 pm

dkodgis wrote:Any model updates?

I’ve not had time to really post a thoughtful response to Scott’s rebuttal of my video, but the trends that I highlighted appear to have continued today, though the reflections across the GFS, GEM, and Euro suites appear to remain generally unchanged for now. With three days to go, though, there’s a lot of time for further adjustments one way or another. That’s about all I can offer at the moment. I’ll probably post after I get off work early in the morning.

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Post by Irish Sun Dec 05, 2021 9:36 pm

Seems like the storm threat is fading.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 05, 2021 9:50 pm

Hey all, so the models showing a far south solution very sharp cutoff to north of 95, not sure where steve D is getting his 3-6 for a area that far north. I have not seen all the model runs but man few days ago the GFS had 6-12 for the area.  It has been pretty warm though so not sure how much of that would actually stick.  It would be nice to see at least a little white, even better to have a decent storm that would last through xmas but looking at temp forecasts i think that's asking a bit much, we will see.  Been working hard at my new job (just hit 6 mos dec. 1st) and getting ready to start-up ebay as a full fledged business for 2022 and going forward so haven't had much time for weather sadly. Great explanations though I did not have time to read in entirety.
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Post by rb924119 Sun Dec 05, 2021 11:23 pm

Irish wrote:Seems like the storm threat is fading.

Not saying that I believe it, but before you start counting chickens, you should let the 00z suite finish hatching its eggs Wink

Much like Major Tom commencing countdown, we are commencing our northward trend. How far will it go? Only one way to find out……..WE TRACK!!!

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Post by rb924119 Sun Dec 05, 2021 11:25 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Hey all, so the models showing a far south solution very sharp cutoff to north of 95, not sure where steve D is getting his 3-6 for a area that far north. I have not seen all the model runs but man few days ago the GFS had 6-12 for the area.  It has been pretty warm though so not sure how much of that would actually stick.  It would be nice to see at least a little white, even better to have a decent storm that would last through xmas but looking at temp forecasts i think that's asking a bit much, we will see.  Been working hard at my new job (just hit 6 mos dec. 1st) and getting ready to start-up ebay as a full fledged business for 2022 and going forward so haven't had much time for weather sadly. Great explanations though I did not have time to read in entirety.

I’ve been wondering you were haha glad to see you back, and glad to hear things are going well! Latest GFS isn’t too far off from Steve’s thoughts, so he may not be as crazy as he seems :p

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Post by Irish Mon Dec 06, 2021 4:34 am

rb924119 wrote:
Irish wrote:Seems like the storm threat is fading.

Not saying that I believe it, but before you start counting chickens, you should let the 00z suite finish hatching its eggs Wink

Much like Major Tom commencing countdown, we are commencing our northward trend. How far will it go? Only one way to find out……..WE TRACK!!!

Oh, I'm more than happy to wait to count, as I'd rather see more eggs.

TRACK AWAY!

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Post by amugs Mon Dec 06, 2021 7:01 am

We'll have a much better sampling of the energy atb12z Suite today. GFS/NAM/ICON/GEFS made a jump NW overnight. NY Metro/NNJ/LHV area are light accumulations at this time.
Euro/Ukie/CMC are a miss for the area but Euor not by much. Adjustments will be occuring either way
Scott you Fish Stix can't buy a win right now

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Dec 06, 2021 9:42 am

12Z NAM was a nice start to the guidance. Sharper trough and more vigorous s/w resulting in minor accumulations and more on eastern LI. The take away from the NAM is it was much better at H5 and that's what we want to start seeing across models. Personally if I can get 1" in this kind of pattern it's a win.

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Post by amugs Mon Dec 06, 2021 9:56 am

DECEMBER 8TH 2021---First real accumulating snow potential ???? 4938E42C-C0D7-4F2F-BBFD-9DB695239637.png.4fd99e8a2280e8c0761e78dffbbdde93

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Post by SENJsnowman Mon Dec 06, 2021 10:01 am

12z gfs and nam both seem to favor a smallish event for snj. GFS with a general 1-3” south of I95. The Nam has been kinda locked in now for 3-4 consecutive runs. 2-3” for the  S and E, 1-2” for N and W and C-1” for central nj and nyc. Getting into the Nams wheelhouse in the next couple of runs, so I’m starting to get a bit hopeful for an early winter ❄ premier. Would LOVE to get to 2”, expecting T or white rain for now.

It’s the most wonderful time…of the year!!! 😁

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Post by sroc4 Mon Dec 06, 2021 10:05 am

NAM was a Suffolk County special

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Post by sroc4 Mon Dec 06, 2021 10:10 am

I wish, for the coastal plain's sake that the bulk of the precip wasn't coming in mid day Wed as currently it's looking like. May not matter either way, but def doesn't help.

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Post by amugs Mon Dec 06, 2021 10:23 am

Good 1st call overall by this guy.
DECEMBER 8TH 2021---First real accumulating snow potential ???? FF7qAGgXMA0tmNF?format=jpg&name=small


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Post by amugs Mon Dec 06, 2021 10:28 am

sroc4 wrote:NAM was a Suffolk County special
What else is new these days?? Laughing Laughing

A tad more amplification is still possible in this mal pattern we are in. IF we had a sharper PNA or a bit of a block then it could be really interesting overall as it stands a little teaser but mood happening event. He does a good job depicting upper levels comparisons.


Non Twitter folks here are the maps:
DECEMBER 8TH 2021---First real accumulating snow potential ???? FF7xL_tX0AMFokk?format=jpg&name=large

DECEMBER 8TH 2021---First real accumulating snow potential ???? FF7xOnTXMAEpDwf?format=jpg&name=large

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Dec 06, 2021 10:55 am

The 12Z GFS looked like another good step. The trough is sharper and more vigorous s/w than 06Z. We say this a lot but this wasn't far from being a moderate event. A bit sharper trough and it'd tug the mid level storm enough to do that. As long as we continue to improve and not give back on the models from here on out this will at least coat our ground.

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