Re: Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th?

by **lglickman1** Tue Jan 11, 2022 1:40 pm

The million dollar question is: does this ultimately take the goldilocks benchmark track so we can all benefit

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Jan 11, 2022 1:41 pm

And now all the players are on board. Except we're now to far west. Who would have thought in 24 hours the changes would be that drastic on the models.

A long, long way to go with this one. Lot's of scenarios here.

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 11, 2022 1:44 pm

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:If it phases with that trailing shortwave will that hold the storm back and make it run up through PA?

Very good question, as we are now seeing that become a greater possibility as well (the phasing). Unfortunately, it’s not east to answer haha it would definitely slow the storm down and extend the duration of the impacts. That much is certain. Aside from that, what I think we would see happen, is that it turn into more of a Miller-B, where the phase would force the initial low to cut up into West Virginia (or thereabouts), and then a secondary to form in response to the occlusion process somewhere over or near the Delmarva, at the triple point between the warm, cold and occluded fronts. Does this remind anybody of anything? Blizzard of January 2016. If we saw this phase occur, which is now becoming a clear possibility, I think we’d see a very similar evolution to the Blizzard of January 2016.

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 11, 2022 1:45 pm

dsix85 wrote:It made worth asking even though it was mentioned before, should we not be concerned about most of the area showing rain but rather more excited at the idea of a major system heading our way?

by **sroc4** Tue Jan 11, 2022 1:47 pm

At this lead time its ALL still on the table. VERY interesting indeed

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Jan 11, 2022 1:48 pm

rb924119 wrote:
bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:If it phases with that trailing shortwave will that hold the storm back and make it run up through PA?

Very good question, as we are now seeing that become a greater possibility as well (the phasing). Unfortunately, it’s not east to answer haha it would definitely slow the storm down and extend the duration of the impacts. That much is certain. Aside from that, what I think we would see happen, is that it turn into more of a Miller-B, where the phase would force the initial low to cut up into West Virginia (or thereabouts), and then a secondary to form in response to the occlusion process somewhere over or near the Delmarva, at the triple point between the warm, cold and occluded fronts. Does this remind anybody of anything? Blizzard of January 2016. If we saw this phase occur, which is now becoming a clear possibility, I think we’d see a very similar evolution to the Blizzard of January 2016.

The blizzard of 96 had temperatures in the teens through most of the event, even down to the city. We certainly wouldn't have that, right?

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 11, 2022 1:49 pm

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:If it phases with that trailing shortwave will that hold the storm back and make it run up through PA?

If that happens then yes…the storms gets tugged west and we pretty much all rain. From the H5 map below the vort you’re talking about is the northern most circle. Our southern vort is the main low pressure. This energy actually closes off over Oklahoma which is pretty crazy. I don’t think that is right. Once this energy is better sampled, my guess is the ULL closes off further east. Which means your low center tracks more offshore.

dsix85 wrote:It made worth asking even though it was mentioned before, should we not be concerned about most of the area showing rain but rather more excited at the idea of a major system heading our way?

Seeing precipitation maps is pretty meaningless. Just have to look at what’s happening aloft. Without a doubt, things have changed drastically. I’m still sticking to my original probability %’s until at least tomorrow night.

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 11, 2022 1:50 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:And now all the players are on board. Except we're now to far west. Who would have thought in 24 hours the changes would be that drastic on the models.

A long, long way to go with this one. Lot's of scenarios here.

“If you build it, they will come.” We built the pattern Cp Wink

the crazy part is this type of model behavior, with the sudden realization that there’s a storm threat inside of five days is likely to continue in this type of pattern because you are repeatedly injecting true Arctic disturbances and driving them directly southward into an active sub-tropical jet. The Arctic is not well sampled, so the models can’t get a good handle on them until they get over the RAOB network, which doesn’t start increasing in density until central, western and southern Canada. Same story with the sub-tropical disturbances - we can’t get a good idea until they start getting near the West Coast.

by **hyde345** Tue Jan 11, 2022 1:51 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:And now all the players are on board. Except we're now to far west. Who would have thought in 24 hours the changes would be that drastic on the models.

A long, long way to go with this one. Lot's of scenarios here.

We would do very well on that run N and W although it's a little to close for comfort. Stunning changes between 00z and 12z on CMC and Euro.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 11, 2022 1:52 pm

CP read blizzard of 96’ and did a little pee pees in his pants. I know it. You know it.

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 11, 2022 1:53 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:If it phases with that trailing shortwave will that hold the storm back and make it run up through PA?

If that happens then yes…the storms gets tugged west and we pretty much all rain. From the H5 map below the vort you’re talking about is the northern most circle. Our southern vort is the main low pressure. This energy actually closes off over Oklahoma which is pretty crazy. I don’t think that is right. Once this energy is better sampled, my guess is the ULL closes off further east. Which means your low center tracks more offshore.

dsix85 wrote:It made worth asking even though it was mentioned before, should we not be concerned about most of the area showing rain but rather more excited at the idea of a major system heading our way?

Seeing precipitation maps is pretty meaningless. Just have to look at what’s happening aloft. Without a doubt, things have changed drastically. I’m still sticking to my original probability %’s until at least tomorrow night.

Depends when/where it phases, Frank. If it doesn’t phase until it’s over the Mid-Atlantic, then yeah, we get warm sectors and central/northern New England get the goods. But if it phases over Kentucky, which another shift like we just saw and that’s where it will be, then you’re looking at January 2016 2.0 in my opinion.

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 11, 2022 1:55 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:If it phases with that trailing shortwave will that hold the storm back and make it run up through PA?

Very good question, as we are now seeing that become a greater possibility as well (the phasing). Unfortunately, it’s not east to answer haha it would definitely slow the storm down and extend the duration of the impacts. That much is certain. Aside from that, what I think we would see happen, is that it turn into more of a Miller-B, where the phase would force the initial low to cut up into West Virginia (or thereabouts), and then a secondary to form in response to the occlusion process somewhere over or near the Delmarva, at the triple point between the warm, cold and occluded fronts. Does this remind anybody of anything? Blizzard of January 2016. If we saw this phase occur, which is now becoming a clear possibility, I think we’d see a very similar evolution to the Blizzard of January 2016.

The blizzard of 96 had temperatures in the teens through most of the event, even down to the city. We certainly wouldn't have that, right?

2016, Cp, not ‘96 lmao

by **heehaw453** Tue Jan 11, 2022 1:56 pm

Models today are showing a bomb. This is a very delicate setup, but what's encouraging across all guidance is there is more space for amplification and raising heights on the eastern seaboard. The phasing aspect of this is so complex that even 24-48 hours out the jury will still be out and that will probably ultimately determine the exact track. But I'm skeptical of inland runner because the NAO blocking moves westward. You have light +PNA -NAO working together not either being extreme. I would look at ensembles now more than operational runs for general low placement. In a few days op runs are probably better.

by **crippo84** Tue Jan 11, 2022 1:56 pm

I've learned a lot of lessons on this board. One of the most valuable is NOT to be in the crosshairs of a big snowstorm too early in the modeling. Let evolution play out - I actually love seeing the huge westward corrections right now. Let this baby waffle a bit and come this time Friday - BAM! (Here's hoping at least lol)

by **phil155** Tue Jan 11, 2022 1:59 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:If it phases with that trailing shortwave will that hold the storm back and make it run up through PA?

Very good question, as we are now seeing that become a greater possibility as well (the phasing). Unfortunately, it’s not east to answer haha it would definitely slow the storm down and extend the duration of the impacts. That much is certain. Aside from that, what I think we would see happen, is that it turn into more of a Miller-B, where the phase would force the initial low to cut up into West Virginia (or thereabouts), and then a secondary to form in response to the occlusion process somewhere over or near the Delmarva, at the triple point between the warm, cold and occluded fronts. Does this remind anybody of anything? Blizzard of January 2016. If we saw this phase occur, which is now becoming a clear possibility, I think we’d see a very similar evolution to the Blizzard of January 2016.

The blizzard of 96 had temperatures in the teens through most of the event, even down to the city. We certainly wouldn't have that, right?

Blizzard of 96 was my favorite snow storm, I was living in jersey city at the time

by **nutleyblizzard** Tue Jan 11, 2022 2:02 pm

We’re still 6 days from the event which is an eternity for tracking a monster like this. My advice to everyone is to follow the ensembles for now. There’s going to be a lot of run to run variability with the OP’s which I fear will cause a lot of undue stress.

by **heehaw453** Tue Jan 11, 2022 2:08 pm

The other thing you look for is cold air. Well this is an excellent antecedent air mass. This air as modeled is not far from southern Ontario air temperature. That tells me a lot actually like this has really big dog accumulation potential...

Winter - Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 2 Airmas10

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 11, 2022 2:08 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:We’re still 6 days from the event which is an eternity for tracking a monster like this. My advice to everyone is to follow the ensembles for now. There’s going to be a lot of run to run variability with the OP’s which I fear will cause a lot of undue stress.

We all know that this a great, logical, clear-minded, and well thought out post. But what fun would there be in that????

told ya

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 11, 2022 2:12 pm

heehaw453 wrote:The other thing you look for is cold air. Well this is an excellent antecedent air mass. This air as modeled is not far from southern Ontario air temperature. That tells me a lot actually like this has really big dog accumulation potential...

The key is that it isn’t too cold. It moderated enough on todays runs thanks to the forecasted height field evolution, but just little enough to not be too moderated. Again, I personally think that what we saw today was an over-correction. But we’ll see.

by **nutleyblizzard** Tue Jan 11, 2022 2:13 pm

Winter - Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 2 Indexm10

Calm down everyone EPS is east.

by **hyde345** Tue Jan 11, 2022 2:14 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:We’re still 6 days from the event which is an eternity for tracking a monster like this. My advice to everyone is to follow the ensembles for now. There’s going to be a lot of run to run variability with the OP’s which I fear will cause a lot of undue stress.

Good advice. Every single operational, CMC, Euro, UKIE, and GFS are showing something similar. It will be interesting to see the CMC and Euro ensembles.

by **hyde345** Tue Jan 11, 2022 2:16 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
Calm down everyone EPS is east.

That mean can be skewed though. Do you have individual members?

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 11, 2022 2:17 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
Calm down everyone EPS is east.

Not really lol

Winter - Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 2 93786e10

by **heehaw453** Tue Jan 11, 2022 2:20 pm

EPS has a lot of bombs. Like an unbelievable amount of bombs at D5+. It's getting phased early it would seem.

Winter - Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 2 Eps29

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 11, 2022 2:25 pm

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 11, 2022 2:25 pm

heehaw453 wrote:EPS has a lot of bombs. Like an unbelievable amount of bombs at D5+. It's getting phased early it would seem.

By my eye it’s over Western Virginia and West Virginia in the ensemble mean. I expect this to shift further south/west as lead time decreases using my same ideas, and still like the Central Mid-Atlantic as the sweet spot. This is gonna be fun, as the January 2016 analog may be a good one.

by **nutleyblizzard** Tue Jan 11, 2022 2:26 pm

rb924119 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:
Calm down everyone EPS is east.

Not really lol

MEh. I still think this came too far west and will correct eastward in time. Models have often under modeled the strength of the NAO block. In the end I think this beast goes just inside the BM.

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