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January 22nd-23rd Storm

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 18, 2022 12:35 pm

The long range thread reached its max, so decided to start a separate thread for this weekends potential storm. Like Scott said, there’s a chance the GFS misses the phase that the EURO has but focuses on another piece of energy on the backside which could deliver snow here on Sunday.

There’s just SO much upper energy for these models to focus on that I’m not sure we’ll have resolution until tomorrow night or Thursday.

Continue discussions here. Big Euro run coming up!

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 18, 2022 12:52 pm

Which way are you leaning right mow with what model info we have and what your expertise tells you, didn't you say last night if the GFS trended towards GFS and Euro held serve which I believe they both did that the chances of a major storm would go up a lot? Are you still thinking this I see you have it at 25% that was yesterday do you plan to increase it? After typing this I think it is obvious you do because you made a thread HAHA  But now your saying its possible this is a sunday storm potentially?
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 18, 2022 1:02 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Which way are you leaning right mow with what model info we have and what your expertise tells you, didn't you say last night if the GFS trended towards GFS and Euro held serve which I believe they both did that the chances of a major storm would go up a lot? Are you still thinking this I see you have it at 25% that was yesterday do you plan to increase it? After typing this I think it is obvious you do because you made a thread HAHA  But now your saying its possible this is a sunday storm potentially?

So mugs posted in the last thread about how there’s multiple pieces of upper energy. This creates confusion between models because they’re all navigating these waves differently. The GFS tries to pop a low off the coast on Sunday while keeping the “Euro” storm to our south and mostly out to sea.

Personally, I think the EURO is overplaying its hand here. I’ve commented in the long range thread how I felt the main time period to concentrate on is 25th-1st as that’s when we gain back the EPO, PNA and MAYBE even the NAO.

However, when the EURO shows consecutive runs of moderate to heavy snow you can’t discount it. I just think the pattern turned too progressive and the GFS normally handles northern stream types better. The GEFS did tick west and now show sizable snow for coastal and southern NJ. If anything, I think Mid Atlantic into SNJ are in the cross hairs this weekend. Everyone else is at a lower risk, but let’s see what EURO shows in the next 30 minutes.

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 18, 2022 1:08 pm

From the early looks of it I think the EURO trended worse at 500mb, but I think it’s still going to show the storm on Saturday. MAYBE weaker and more S&E. Let’s see

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 18, 2022 1:10 pm

Honestly, this all kinda looks strung out and messy. Definitely seems as if the EURO is holding back more energy than prior runs. So far, this run is a nod toward the GFS

January 22nd-23rd Storm 1277094740_ScreenShot2022-01-18at1_08_39PM.png.1847d0b52e5f34924322cb8803da03d3

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Post by mikeypizano Tue Jan 18, 2022 1:12 pm

I hope this works out better than the slopfest I got rom this last one...
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 18, 2022 1:15 pm

You can see how now the EURO is keeping energy back over Texas. Also notice the follow up northern stream energy about to enter the upper Plains, which is what the GFS like more than the Saturday system.

January 22nd-23rd Storm 1642788000-VZTQHMwdVsA

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 18, 2022 1:21 pm

The Euro is looking like GFS it is not ejecting s/s s/w energy out enough. Much less interaction means minimal impacts if any IMO. This is consistent with other guidance and the Euro has been an outlier all along. Not to mention it still hasn't bought into Thursday snowfall when most other guidance is showing 2-3". This model is not your grandfather's Euro...

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 18, 2022 1:37 pm

I haven't given up on the weekend rendering something, but certainly there is low confidence any given solution ATTM. It's going to be a few days probably to know.

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 18, 2022 1:49 pm

Wow, what happened to this model? GFS called last weekend's storm and now is on track to get this weekend's storm right too. Here's EURO snow map.

January 22nd-23rd Storm Image-thumb-png-cf593d42aea828844f28761e78602a1b

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 18, 2022 2:00 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Wow, what happened to this model? GFS called last weekend's storm and now is on track to get this weekend's storm right too. Here's EURO snow map.

January 22nd-23rd Storm Image-thumb-png-cf593d42aea828844f28761e78602a1b
Boo hiss, lol, I fully expected this though hoped I did not see it happen. It could change again but I am guessing you guys may be right. My faith in the Euro is not what it used to be. Time for a upgrade there IMO.
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Post by bobjohnsonforthehall Tue Jan 18, 2022 2:05 pm

There are so many pieces of energy that I'm not convinced any of the models have locked into the right solution. The Euro does slow things down this run.
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Post by SENJsnowman Tue Jan 18, 2022 2:07 pm

To my recollection, at least since 2016 when I started ‘tracking’ winter storms, there has not been one, I mean not a single solitary, storm that didn’t wiper effect it’s way thru most or all of the 5-6 days leading up to the event. I literally can’t think of one moderate to big event that did not get lost by the models prior to.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 18, 2022 2:35 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:To my recollection, at least since 2016 when I started ‘tracking’ winter storms, there has not been one, I mean not a single solitary, storm that didn’t wiper effect it’s way thru most or all of the 5-6 days leading up to the event. I literally can’t think of one moderate to big event that did not get lost by the models prior to.
this is very true and I have not given up on it, not going to model hug.
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Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 18, 2022 2:38 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:To my recollection, at least since 2016 when I started ‘tracking’ winter storms, there has not been one, I mean not a single solitary, storm that didn’t wiper effect it’s way thru most or all of the 5-6 days leading up to the event. I literally can’t think of one moderate to big event that did not get lost by the models prior to.

You are right and especially with phasing systems that are very fickle to forecast. They are always high risk/reward type deals. No one should be surprised if this comes back on the table.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Jan 18, 2022 2:40 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:To my recollection, at least since 2016 when I started ‘tracking’ winter storms, there has not been one, I mean not a single solitary, storm that didn’t wiper effect it’s way thru most or all of the 5-6 days leading up to the event. I literally can’t think of one moderate to big event that did not get lost by the models prior to.

The difference here I think is the Euro was the only model that had this storm affecting most of the forum. It was an outlier and now seems to be conforming to the others. Hopefully I'm dead wrong.
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Post by docstox12 Tue Jan 18, 2022 3:12 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
SENJsnowman wrote:To my recollection, at least since 2016 when I started ‘tracking’ winter storms, there has not been one, I mean not a single solitary, storm that didn’t wiper effect it’s way thru most or all of the 5-6 days leading up to the event. I literally can’t think of one moderate to big event that did not get lost by the models prior to.

The difference here I think is the Euro was the only model that had this storm affecting most of the forum. It was an outlier and now seems to be conforming to the others. Hopefully I'm dead wrong.

Hey CP, I think you are short on your snow totals to date.We had 4 inches from the storm LI got 8 or 9.Do you have that in your totals?
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Jan 18, 2022 3:40 pm

docstox12 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
SENJsnowman wrote:To my recollection, at least since 2016 when I started ‘tracking’ winter storms, there has not been one, I mean not a single solitary, storm that didn’t wiper effect it’s way thru most or all of the 5-6 days leading up to the event. I literally can’t think of one moderate to big event that did not get lost by the models prior to.

The difference here I think is the Euro was the only model that had this storm affecting most of the forum. It was an outlier and now seems to be conforming to the others. Hopefully I'm dead wrong.

Hey CP, I think you are short on your snow totals to date.We had 4 inches from the storm LI got 8 or 9.Do you have that in your totals?

Doc I'm at 11.0 even. I'll have to update my signature.

Plus 11 straight days of snowpack, the bigger number as far as I'm concerned. Would love to see that run through Mid March, like last years snowpack. Of course that was helped immensely by the 28 inch storm of Feb 1-3, wouldn't mind another of those at some point this season.


Last edited by CPcantmeasuresnow on Tue Jan 18, 2022 4:20 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by docstox12 Tue Jan 18, 2022 3:46 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
SENJsnowman wrote:To my recollection, at least since 2016 when I started ‘tracking’ winter storms, there has not been one, I mean not a single solitary, storm that didn’t wiper effect it’s way thru most or all of the 5-6 days leading up to the event. I literally can’t think of one moderate to big event that did not get lost by the models prior to.

The difference here I think is the Euro was the only model that had this storm affecting most of the forum. It was an outlier and now seems to be conforming to the others. Hopefully I'm dead wrong.

Hey CP, I think you are short on your snow totals to date.We had 4 inches from the storm LI got 8 or 9.Do you have that in your totals?

Doc I'm at 11.0 even. I'll have to update my signature.

Roger that!
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Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 18, 2022 3:47 pm

Take NAM FWIW at 18Z, but it's not impressive for a decent event. Lots of confluence dampening EC heights so that isn't a look of a storm riding up the coast to me. Again NAM at hour 84 is like GFS at hour 168 not too reliable...

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 18, 2022 3:51 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Take NAM FWIW at 18Z, but it's not impressive for a decent event.  Lots of confluence dampening EC heights so that isn't a look of a storm riding up the coast to me.  Again NAM at hour 84 is like GFS at hour 168 not too reliable...
Lets cross out fingers this is a windshield wiper and not a trend that the Goofus was right.
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Post by amugs Tue Jan 18, 2022 4:13 pm

Just like when we get a NW jog we get all excited by one model and then another follows and they then jog South and then NW and then... it is a dance we do everytime since I began tracking since the great storms of 1977-78. Models are 1 gazillion x better but we see this dance. No trend yet so glass is half filled. You may disagree which is fine but until we see a few more runs then we moved ahead.
And 18 EPS members have a Westward Lean. 16 are OTS.
January 22nd-23rd Storm Fjad6010




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Post by amugs Tue Jan 18, 2022 4:45 pm

Well NWS just put the Kabosh on this one!!

Most long range models
take the low well out to sea Saturday, with no real impacts to the
area. The ECMWF had been more of a direct impact, however the newer
model run trended farther south and east, which is in line with the
other long range models. Additionally, less than 25% of the GEFS
members show any real impact from the storm. Given the uncertainty,
stayed close to the NBM for POPs, but they will likely trend
downward in subsequent forecast if the more southeastern trend in
the track continues.

Close it up peeps the Weather gurus have spoken. Done deal onto the next fantasy threat!

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Post by mikeypizano Tue Jan 18, 2022 4:47 pm

amugs wrote:Well NWS just put the Kabosh on this one!!

Most long range models
take the low well out to sea Saturday, with no real impacts to the
area. The ECMWF had been more of a direct impact, however the newer
model run trended farther south and east, which is in line with the
other long range models. Additionally, less than 25% of the GEFS
members show any real impact from the storm. Given the uncertainty,
stayed close to the NBM for POPs, but they will likely trend
downward in subsequent forecast if the more southeastern trend in
the track continues.

Close it up peeps the Weather gurus have spoken. Done deal onto the next fantasy threat!


New rule, Frank isn't allowed to make a new thread until 24hr before storm Wink
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Post by amugs Tue Jan 18, 2022 4:50 pm

Look at this: Must have seen what I saw here LOL found off Twitter


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