Re: January 22nd-23rd Storm

by **mikeypizano** Tue Jan 18, 2022 4:47 pm

amugs wrote:Well NWS just put the Kabosh on this one!!

Most long range models
take the low well out to sea Saturday, with no real impacts to the
area. The ECMWF had been more of a direct impact, however the newer
model run trended farther south and east, which is in line with the
other long range models. Additionally, less than 25% of the GEFS
members show any real impact from the storm. Given the uncertainty,
stayed close to the NBM for POPs, but they will likely trend
downward in subsequent forecast if the more southeastern trend in
the track continues.

Close it up peeps the Weather gurus have spoken. Done deal onto the next fantasy threat!

New rule, Frank isn't allowed to make a new thread until 24hr before storm Wink

by **amugs** Tue Jan 18, 2022 4:50 pm

Look at this: Must have seen what I saw here LOL found off Twitter

Agree with all of this. There is a heavy lean west on the EPS with just under half the members coming in near the BM. https://t.co/9yaGF89OdX
— Mike Barletta (@MikeBWeather) January 18, 2022

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 18, 2022 4:57 pm

amugs wrote:Well NWS just put the Kabosh on this one!!

Most long range models
take the low well out to sea Saturday, with no real impacts to the
area. The ECMWF had been more of a direct impact, however the newer
model run trended farther south and east, which is in line with the
other long range models. Additionally, less than 25% of the GEFS
members show any real impact from the storm. Given the uncertainty,
stayed close to the NBM for POPs, but they will likely trend
downward in subsequent forecast if the more southeastern trend in
the track continues.

Close it up peeps the Weather gurus have spoken. Done deal onto the next fantasy threat!

The fact that they say there is no shot is disconcerting, they have been wrong before but they are not even saying anything about a possible west change, yes there's wiper effect but seems most outlets are over and out about this. I changed my plans for nothing I guess. Let's hope you can reel this back in sometimes you work magic over all odds mugs.

by bobjohnsonforthehall Tue Jan 18, 2022 5:11 pm

Latest GFS is harshing my buzz.

by **heehaw453** Tue Jan 18, 2022 5:49 pm

GFS just can't dig the trough far enough. Ridge breaks down on both sides. It's close enough to watch it, but I think this one maybe for NC/Va. I would be surprised if Euro improved.

January 22nd-23rd Storm - Page 2 Gfsrid11

by **mmanisca** Tue Jan 18, 2022 5:56 pm

Thinking the rest of the winter will feature the little storms giving us small snowfalls and the bigger ones either missing us or cutting to our west....

by uanswer2me Tue Jan 18, 2022 6:09 pm

mmanisca wrote:Thinking the rest of the winter will feature the little storms giving us small snowfalls and the bigger ones either missing us or cutting to our west....

Don't say such horrible things.

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 18, 2022 6:32 pm

uanswer2me wrote:
mmanisca wrote:Thinking the rest of the winter will feature the little storms giving us small snowfalls and the bigger ones either missing us or cutting to our west....

Don't say such horrible things.

It is possibly true, I just hope it does not last into April.

by **mikeypizano** Tue Jan 18, 2022 6:33 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
uanswer2me wrote:
mmanisca wrote:Thinking the rest of the winter will feature the little storms giving us small snowfalls and the bigger ones either missing us or cutting to our west....

Don't say such horrible things.
It is possibly true, I just hope it does not last into April.

I rather more little storms, instead of one and done.

by **lglickman1** Tue Jan 18, 2022 7:04 pm

So is any kind of winter weather off the table for the 22nd and the 24?

by **mmanisca** Tue Jan 18, 2022 7:12 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
uanswer2me wrote:
mmanisca wrote:Thinking the rest of the winter will feature the little storms giving us small snowfalls and the bigger ones either missing us or cutting to our west....

Don't say such horrible things.
It is possibly true, I just hope it does not last into April.

Totally agree. For me once we get past the second week in March I’m ready for Spring!

by **mmanisca** Tue Jan 18, 2022 7:12 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
uanswer2me wrote:
mmanisca wrote:Thinking the rest of the winter will feature the little storms giving us small snowfalls and the bigger ones either missing us or cutting to our west....

Don't say such horrible things.
It is possibly true, I just hope it does not last into April.

Totally agree. For me once we get past the second week in March I’m ready for Spring!

by **heehaw453** Tue Jan 18, 2022 7:34 pm

This picture of Euro ULL furthers the weakening of this storm. First pic shows the most recent run of Euro 18Z ULL and the second pic shows the ULL when it was showing a major snowstorm last night 00Z. Most likely this one is done for anything beyond minor effects and that's why it's important to get some model alignment before getting vested in a threat.

January 22nd-23rd Storm - Page 2 Ecmwf110

January 22nd-23rd Storm - Page 2 Ecmwf210

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 18, 2022 7:54 pm

We’ll give this thread until 12z tomorrow before locking it up

by **heehaw453** Wed Jan 19, 2022 8:32 am

06Z Euro phasing this storm again and could have implications for immediate SE Jersey Coast. However, for most everyone else this is a done deal IMO.

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 19, 2022 9:28 am

heehaw453 wrote:06Z Euro phasing this storm again and could have implications for immediate SE Jersey Coast. However, for most everyone else this is a done deal IMO.

Well I guess it is what it is right? We can't control what' going to happen but I will tell you what, after two of these I am not going to take anything seriously until we are in SR model territory, too many letdowns and too much time tracking when I really should be doing other things lol

by **heehaw453** Wed Jan 19, 2022 9:57 am

jmanley32 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:06Z Euro phasing this storm again and could have implications for immediate SE Jersey Coast. However, for most everyone else this is a done deal IMO.

Well I guess it is what it is right? We can't control what' going to happen but I will tell you what, after two of these I am not going to take anything seriously until we are in SR model territory, too many letdowns and too much time tracking when I really should be doing other things lol

Another what might have been scenario and we can add it to the growing list...

by **phil155** Wed Jan 19, 2022 10:18 am

heehaw453 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:06Z Euro phasing this storm again and could have implications for immediate SE Jersey Coast. However, for most everyone else this is a done deal IMO.

Well I guess it is what it is right? We can't control what' going to happen but I will tell you what, after two of these I am not going to take anything seriously until we are in SR model territory, too many letdowns and too much time tracking when I really should be doing other things lol

Another what might have been scenario and we can add it to the growing list...

Agreed

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