Re: Long Range Discussion 23.0

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 24, 2022 1:23 pm

The EURO valid for Friday is already showing the development of our upper level jet off the east coast, and notice the strong southerly jet over the Gulf. This has the look of a big run coming...

snow - Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 8 61eeed6134089-thumb-png-09e951886c047dcce5c84bd37ede9b38

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 24, 2022 1:24 pm

The EURO was a butt hair away from showing a Roidzilla similiar to the Canadian. It is definitely west of last night's 00z run.

snow - Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 8 61eeedd1af413-thumb-png-1ccfe76dac8120a16e5304ac891075e1

snow - Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 8 61eeee32dc5a6-thumb-png-8bfb5a06f71881fa9264b1da097117e6

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 24, 2022 1:25 pm

by lisalamb Mon Jan 24, 2022 1:31 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
lisalamb wrote:I have a flight to Florida out of Newark scheduled for Saturday at 11. I realize this potential storm is a ways out, but what are the chances it misses us? I'm wondering if I should just go ahead and move my flight to Friday now just to be safe. Is there a chance the storm might come earlier than Saturday (if it does come to pass?)

There could be overrunning precip as early as Friday afternoon like 1pm, but that shouldn’t disrupt air travel too much. Your Saturday flight would definitely be at risk if this storm came to fruition. You’re better off changing to Friday before everyone else catches on and does the same thing. But it’s also only Monday and still a chance we see trends go back to showing the storm miss out to sea. However, I’m growing more and more confident with each passing model run we’ll see at least some impacts given the magnitude and size of the storm.

Thanks Frank. I made the change. Better safe than sorry.

by **sroc4** Mon Jan 24, 2022 1:34 pm

Its a roidzilla for some

snow - Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 8 Ecmwf-93

by **SENJsnowman** Mon Jan 24, 2022 1:40 pm

Radio Silence time for me. I'm just not gonna move. For like a couple days...

by **amugs** Mon Jan 24, 2022 1:40 pm

While we wait for the EURO here is an interlude that Rb may very well like adn stick another heater in his hat IF this happens - It would induce a PV perturbation or split and accentuate NAO blocking for mid Feb through March 2018 lean.

There's been some anticyclonic wavebreaking over the Atlantic lately and it seems to continue in coming forecast. Although I would have liked to see a positive Scandinavia-Greenland dipole, could the AWBs be enough, or are we just getting red herrings from GFS? @SimonLeeWx pic.twitter.com/0J6s57nHwW
— Nitzan Cohen (@nitzancohen) January 24, 2022

Sorry had this up an hour ago and got sidetracked with my job LOL!!

by **dsix85** Mon Jan 24, 2022 1:44 pm

@sroc...we got the goods in Wading River/Manorville on that one you showed!

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 24, 2022 1:46 pm

We're still seeing noticeable shifts run to run and are far from knowing the final solution, but the trends with northern s/w and southern s/w since yesterday's 12z on the EURO are wild to me. All maps valid for Friday afternoon.

snow - Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 8 500hv-conus

snow - Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 8 500hv-conus

Northern s/w:
Diving south ahead of the ridge instead of meandering around the PV.

Southern s/w:
Still a little 'stringy' but clearly better aligned with the northern s/w than prior runs, which makes the phase happen

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 24, 2022 1:49 pm

GFS trend map is laughable. Everything is moving in our favor............

snow - Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 8 Gfs_z500trend_namer_10

by **amugs** Mon Jan 24, 2022 1:50 pm

GESF trend last 24 hours for the E NAO to press more west and look at what happens over the Canadian provinces. This is what I want to see a bit stronger the slow the flow a bit more.

snow - Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 8 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_fh126_trend.gif.cb70ea34772318b2984830bba6f78b36

snow - Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 8 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_fh126_trend.gif.cb70ea34772318b2984830bba6f78b36

by **sroc4** Mon Jan 24, 2022 1:52 pm

Here is your energy as if initialization from the euro that will make up the system. Still a ways to before all on land.

snow - Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 8 Ecmwf-94

snow - Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 8 Ecmwf-95

by **rb924119** Mon Jan 24, 2022 1:55 pm

amugs wrote:While we wait for the EURO here is an interlude that Rb may very well like adn stick another heater in his hat IF this happens - It would induce a PV perturbation or split and accentuate NAO blocking for mid Feb through March 2018 lean.

There's been some anticyclonic wavebreaking over the Atlantic lately and it seems to continue in coming forecast. Although I would have liked to see a positive Scandinavia-Greenland dipole, could the AWBs be enough, or are we just getting red herrings from GFS? @SimonLeeWx pic.twitter.com/0J6s57nHwW
— Nitzan Cohen (@nitzancohen) January 24, 2022

Sorry had this up an hour ago and got sidetracked with my job LOL!!

Work has an annoying habit of getting in the way of tracking, doesn’t it? Lmao that’s why I’ve been so quiet; busy busy.

RIGHT. ON. SCHEDULE. Wink

by **essexcountypete** Mon Jan 24, 2022 1:57 pm

Amazing what having something to track does for my mood.

by **sroc4** Mon Jan 24, 2022 2:07 pm

***CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM***

by Ronfdny Mon Jan 24, 2022 2:10 pm

Wow weather channel just said looks like a major snow storm for nyc Long Island 12+ inches possible never thought 4 days out they would say it but fingers crossed keep up the good work guys love learning about models now that I’m retired fdny spend time reading your posts

by **essexcountypete** Mon Jan 24, 2022 2:16 pm

Ronfdny wrote:Wow weather channel just said looks like a major snow storm for nyc Long Island 12+ inches possible never thought 4 days out they would say it but fingers crossed keep up the good work guys love learning about models now that I’m retired fdny spend time reading your posts

Yeah, I guess there's enough agreement in the models to make a mention of it, but they jump on any mention of a storm in the model runs, and they will just a easily forget about it when it falls off the models.

Welcome to the board Ron! Always respect the guys running in when we're all running out.

by **jmanley32** Mon Jan 24, 2022 2:28 pm

essexcountypete wrote:
Ronfdny wrote:Wow weather channel just said looks like a major snow storm for nyc Long Island 12+ inches possible never thought 4 days out they would say it but fingers crossed keep up the good work guys love learning about models now that I’m retired fdny spend time reading your posts

Yeah, I guess there's enough agreement in the models to make a mention of it, but they jump on any mention of a storm in the model runs, and they will just a easily forget about it when it falls off the models.

Welcome to the board Ron! Always respect the guys running in when we're all running out.

NOOOO This is the KOD, damn TWC!! LOL, wow I hope we get the Frankzilla thats portrayed over beantown, they dont deserve it lol, but not being in the jackpot now is good, Nonetheless I would take that 12-18 in a second. 24-36 is insane.

by **jmanley32** Mon Jan 24, 2022 2:31 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:The EURO was a butt hair away from showing a Roidzilla similiar to the Canadian. It is definitely west of last night's 00z run.

You guys have such professional ways of describing things, a butt hair away lmao frank your too much. But it was a big hit as posted. And 14 of the ensembles show huge hits posted from mugs, looking good now we just need to keep it that way, I will second scott, cautious optimism. I also always try to think of something fun to do on the day in case it busts so I get distracted from the let down, it works.

by **nutleyblizzard** Mon Jan 24, 2022 2:32 pm

by **amugs** Mon Jan 24, 2022 2:32 pm

JESUS H this a CAT 4 HCANE type storm Pressure!!
God if its right snow aint the only worry!!

snow - Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 8 3E5A5640-7B52-433C-9876-42BD14F754D5.png.6c9bf63407394c483158a911c2288867

snow - Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 8 3E5A5640-7B52-433C-9876-42BD14F754D5.png.6c9bf63407394c483158a911c2288867

by chief7 Mon Jan 24, 2022 2:34 pm

When are you going to be up the percentage from 15% ?

by **amugs** Mon Jan 24, 2022 2:34 pm

Ronfdny wrote:Wow weather channel just said looks like a major snow storm for nyc Long Island 12+ inches possible never thought 4 days out they would say it but fingers crossed keep up the good work guys love learning about models now that I’m retired fdny spend time reading your posts

God Bless and thanks for your service - wife's family in FDNY and so are a couple of friends. Welcome aboard and get on teh choo choo snow train!! Great place to observe and learn and ask questions. Great Education section that SROC made here as well to help understand.

by **amugs** Mon Jan 24, 2022 2:37 pm

chief7 wrote:When are you going to be up the percentage from 15% ?

The Council of OTI have informed the Great Leader Frank the Tank if he touches any such moves at this stage he will be dethroned, tarred and feathered and then exiled to sector 13 of the island until next winter!!!!

by Ronfdny Mon Jan 24, 2022 2:37 pm

amugs wrote:
Ronfdny wrote:Wow weather channel just said looks like a major snow storm for nyc Long Island 12+ inches possible never thought 4 days out they would say it but fingers crossed keep up the good work guys love learning about models now that I’m retired fdny spend time reading your posts

God Bless and thanks for your service - wife's family in FDNY and so are a couple of friends. Welcome aboard and get on teh choo choo snow train!! Great place to observe and learn and ask questions. Great Education section that SROC made here as well to help understand.

by Carvin Mon Jan 24, 2022 2:38 pm

If things keep going like this frank will have a chat by Thursday evening I think

by **bloc1357** Mon Jan 24, 2022 2:38 pm

In 3...2...1! Queue the Jman post about loving wind. Who wants snow and cold weather with crazy winds. Possible power outages with cold and snow.... NO THANKS!!

amugs wrote:JESUS H this a CAT 4 HCANE type storm Pressure!!
God if its right snow aint the only worry!!

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