Long Range Discussion 23.0

If things keep going like this frank will have a chat by Thursday evening I think

In 3...2...1! Queue the Jman post about loving wind. Who wants snow and cold weather with crazy winds. Possible power outages with cold and snow.... NO THANKS!!

amugs wrote:JESUS H this a CAT 4 HCANE type storm Pressure!!
God if its right snow aint the only worry!!

amugs wrote:

chief7 wrote:When are you going to be up the percentage from 15% ?

The Council of OTI have informed the Great Leader Frank the Tank if he touches any such moves at this stage he will be dethroned, tarred and feathered and then exiled to sector 13 of the island until next winter!!!!

Better yet I would just drop the threat altogether!

Mugs where do your family members work in fdny I worked 28 years In Brooklyn and Manhattan engine 239 and 248 in Manhattan engine 53

Bloc No one wants damaging winds, and power outages, esp when its below freezing, but if an individual or individuals gets amped about high winds and thats their thing so be it. No one on here can control if it happens or not.

If the Atlantic ridge builds as advertised and gulf energy consolidates well this will probably be inside to possibly well inside the BM.  The TPV is bullied right out of the way by the building ridge.  This is not a look of outside BM IMO.  

12Z EPS

I get it...its weather it is out of all of our control. Its going to do whatever its going to do!

rb924119 wrote:

amugs wrote:While we wait for the EURO here is an interlude that Rb may very well like adn stick another heater in his hat IF this happens - It would induce a PV perturbation or split and accentuate NAO blocking for mid Feb through March 2018 lean.

There's been some anticyclonic wavebreaking over the Atlantic lately and it seems to continue in coming forecast. Although I would have liked to see a positive Scandinavia-Greenland dipole, could the AWBs be enough, or are we just getting red herrings from GFS? @SimonLeeWx pic.twitter.com/0J6s57nHwW

— Nitzan Cohen (@nitzancohen) January 24, 2022

Sorry had this up an hour ago and got sidetracked with my job LOL!!

Work has an annoying habit of getting in the way of tracking, doesn’t it? Lmao that’s why I’ve been so quiet; busy busy.

RIGHT. ON. SCHEDULE.

Oh come to poppa you beautiful elongated PV Mid Feb. through Mid March maybe later if we can get it more disrupted by he Flux 1 and 2 waves. Also some MJO help Phase 3 would be teh icing on the cake.

bloc1357 wrote:In 3...2...1!  Queue the Jman post about loving wind.  Who wants snow and cold weather with crazy winds.  Possible power outages with cold and snow.... NO THANKS!!

amugs wrote:JESUS H this a CAT 4 HCANE type storm Pressure!!
God if its right snow aint the only worry!!

Meh haha, that is a crazy storm, hey we all want a B word no? With no leaves power wouldn't be a big issue.

Note the stretch of the ULL as the ridge intensifies.  

amugs wrote:

chief7 wrote:When are you going to be up the percentage from 15% ?

The Council of OTI have informed the Great Leader Frank the Tank if he touches any such moves at this stage he will be dethroned, tarred and feathered and then exiled to sector 13 of the island until next winter!!!!

I don’t post much lately, but that’s a very intelligent move!

sroc4 wrote:Bloc No one wants damaging winds, and power outages, esp when its below freezing, but if an individual or individuals gets amped about high winds and thats their thing so be it.  No one on here can control if it happens or not.  

Scott I know but the other aspect is astronomical High Tides this weekend which we be terrible and just rake the coasts - SNE could get devastated by this if all comes together as could LI eastern most IMO. The pressure drop would be insane in 12 hours 31 MB as per Euro from IBM to Cape Cod.

Look at the lean IBM on this

Ronfdny wrote:Mugs where do your family members work in fdny I worked 28 years In Brooklyn and Manhattan engine 239 and 248 in Manhattan engine 53

Well go over to the banter Thread to discuss. Do not want to sidetrack or clog up this thread okay.

amugs wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

amugs wrote:While we wait for the EURO here is an interlude that Rb may very well like adn stick another heater in his hat IF this happens - It would induce a PV perturbation or split and accentuate NAO blocking for mid Feb through March 2018 lean.

There's been some anticyclonic wavebreaking over the Atlantic lately and it seems to continue in coming forecast. Although I would have liked to see a positive Scandinavia-Greenland dipole, could the AWBs be enough, or are we just getting red herrings from GFS? @SimonLeeWx pic.twitter.com/0J6s57nHwW

— Nitzan Cohen (@nitzancohen) January 24, 2022

Sorry had this up an hour ago and got sidetracked with my job LOL!!

Work has an annoying habit of getting in the way of tracking, doesn’t it? Lmao that’s why I’ve been so quiet; busy busy.

RIGHT. ON. SCHEDULE.

Oh come to poppa you beautiful elongated PV Mid Feb. through Mid March maybe later if we can get it more disrupted by he Flux 1 and 2 waves. Also some MJO help Phase 3 would be teh icing on the cake.

Keep in mind the approximate three-week lag. So this would start effecting change in the Troposphere right for the closing days of February/opening week of March, which fits my latest outlook perfectly.

bloc1357 wrote:I get it...its weather it is out of all of our control.  Its going to do whatever its going to do!

A good wind to whip around the snow and cause whiteouts is all I want from a snowstorm, and the control almost never verifies, and it wouldn't be a cat 4 cane type deal (mugs was just saying pressure drop wise), cuz it is a winter storm, different type of system. I wonder if this storm plays out we could see t-snow?

heehaw453 wrote:If the Atlantic ridge builds as advertised and gulf energy consolidates well this will probably be inside to possibly well inside the BM.  The TPV is bullied right out of the way by the building ridge.  This is not a look of outside BM IMO.  

12Z EPS

That is one ominous H5 map. It’s going to be a long tiresome week.

Madonne

nutleyblizzard wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:If the Atlantic ridge builds as advertised and gulf energy consolidates well this will probably be inside to possibly well inside the BM.  The TPV is bullied right out of the way by the building ridge.  This is not a look of outside BM IMO.  

12Z EPS

That is one ominous H5 map. It’s going to be a long tiresome week.

Your big dog opportunities at this latitude more often than not have to have something to buckle the flow. You can only snow for snow long in a progressive pattern. Even in a highly amplified situation something must buckle the flow to allow for this latitude to have any chance at big opportunities. Not so at higher latitudes where there is more time.

I'll go as far as to say this. The arrow points to the Euro operational run approx. position at 7:00am Saturday. Look how many members are W/NW of that position. Like...a lot. Suggesting that we're not done trending W/NW with the track and means snow maps currently are worthless. pic.twitter.com/1HOyu3zT25

— Bobby Martrich | EPAWA Meteorologist ☈ (@epawawx) January 24, 2022

Frank_Wx wrote:Madonne

What model is that and I am getting old thats tiny, yes I see below but its blurry, does that say qpf of up to 2.0 in some areas. Wow if verifies, I think we see some wild stuff come NAM time.

amugs wrote:JESUS H this a CAT 4 HCANE type storm Pressure!!
God if its right snow aint the only worry!!

Inside the benchmark, perfect.

I don't know why the term benchmark was even coined, it must have been someone in Boston or Cape Cod, but over it only seems to work for places east of NYC.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

amugs wrote:JESUS H this a CAT 4 HCANE type storm Pressure!!
God if its right snow aint the only worry!!

Inside the benchmark, perfect.

I don't know why the term benchmark was even coined, it must have been someone in Boston or Cape Cod,  but over it only seems to work for places east of NYC.

I agree unless you have a negatively tilted trough. Then snow gets thrown back to Harrisburg/Scranton/Binghamton.

heehaw453 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

amugs wrote:JESUS H this a CAT 4 HCANE type storm Pressure!!
God if its right snow aint the only worry!!

Inside the benchmark, perfect.

I don't know why the term benchmark was even coined, it must have been someone in Boston or Cape Cod,  but over it only seems to work for places east of NYC.

I agree unless you have a negatively tilted trough.  Then snow gets thrown back to Harrisburg/Scranton/Binghamton.

Can a storm be "inside the benchmark" and still provide good snow to most of the people on this forum?

lglickman1 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

amugs wrote:JESUS H this a CAT 4 HCANE type storm Pressure!!
God if its right snow aint the only worry!!

Inside the benchmark, perfect.

I don't know why the term benchmark was even coined, it must have been someone in Boston or Cape Cod,  but over it only seems to work for places east of NYC.

I agree unless you have a negatively tilted trough.  Then snow gets thrown back to Harrisburg/Scranton/Binghamton.

Can a storm be "inside the benchmark" and still provide good snow to most of the people on this forum?

Absolutely you get in on the CCB heaviest bands of snow that can puke snow 1-4" per hour rates and heavy winds.

lglickman1 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

amugs wrote:JESUS H this a CAT 4 HCANE type storm Pressure!!
God if its right snow aint the only worry!!

Inside the benchmark, perfect.

I don't know why the term benchmark was even coined, it must have been someone in Boston or Cape Cod,  but over it only seems to work for places east of NYC.

I agree unless you have a negatively tilted trough.  Then snow gets thrown back to Harrisburg/Scranton/Binghamton.

Can a storm be "inside the benchmark" and still provide good snow to most of the people on this forum?

Without a doubt. Especially a storm that is dynamic which will cool the column a lot more than models will lead on.

amugs wrote:

lglickman1 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

amugs wrote:JESUS H this a CAT 4 HCANE type storm Pressure!!
God if its right snow aint the only worry!!

Inside the benchmark, perfect.

I don't know why the term benchmark was even coined, it must have been someone in Boston or Cape Cod,  but over it only seems to work for places east of NYC.

I agree unless you have a negatively tilted trough.  Then snow gets thrown back to Harrisburg/Scranton/Binghamton.

Can a storm be "inside the benchmark" and still provide good snow to most of the people on this forum?

Absolutely you get in on the CCB heaviest bands of snow that can puke snow 1-4" per hour rates and heavy winds.

You have to smell the rain sometimes to get the heaviest snow