Long Range Discussion 23.0

Frank_Wx wrote:Sorry I fainted.

EURO shows a Roidzilla

And i don't think this is done. I believe you'll see capture off Delmarva with this.

Why is this still in long range needs it’s own thread

Frank_Wx wrote:Sorry I fainted.

EURO shows a Roidzilla

Max 42 inches!! Frank thats ur hated snow map Kuch..era, but still dayumm. For John with the wind do you have the wind maps? LOL

Frank_Wx wrote:Sorry I fainted.

EURO shows a Roidzilla

Absolutely crippling storm depicted by Euro, sprinkle in a CMC tucked or split the difference between the two pressure wise - period no questions - no one wants to hear this but the strength of this storm will produce major issues.

Carvin wrote:Why is this still in long range needs it’s own thread

no one wants to jinx anything!!

Carvin wrote:Why is this still in long range needs it’s own thread

NOT YET!!! Its a superstitious thing. Last few storms we did that too soon only to have the models literally lose the storm immediately after. Come thursday am if anything remotely similar is being show a separate thread will begin.

weatherwatchermom wrote:

Carvin wrote:Why is this still in long range needs it’s own thread

no one wants to jinx anything!!

Sorry Mom but its too late! It was jinxed the minute it appeared! :p

amugs wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Sorry I fainted.

EURO shows a Roidzilla

Absolutely crippling storm depicted by Euro, sprinkle in a CMC tucked or split the difference between the two pressure wise - period no questions - no one wants to hear this but the strength of this storm will produce major issues.

DEF Mugs, this could be one to go down in history as shown now, still gotta temper ourselves, i wish Friday was here lol. So is this now a Sat/Sun and not Fri/Sat? And Frank upped the SCI, hope that doesn't jinx anything! Can't say that snow map did not give me butterflies lol

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:I’ll dedicate a section of the forum to Jman and call it “John With The Wind”

Sounds a bit like he had beans for lunch...

lol, which I did a bean burrito

The other thing is the cold air in place. Omega snow growth zone would be excellent at the 700mb. Again I can dream can't I?

Jackpot zone southern Delaware Coast with 40 inches? That would be a first and the people down there wouldn't have any idea what to do with it.

I'm highly skeptical that happens. But it's one run of the Euro and it is the Crapola, love it Frank, (K uchera).

Accuweather is harping on New England being ground zero and they're probably right, but I could easily see this thing close off early and stall somewhere well south of NE. See that's the thing about these types of dynamic situations, you truly don't know where captures will occur.

The 12z ECM Ensembles look terrific

Frank_Wx wrote:The 12z ECM Ensembles look terrific

The ULL closes off early. That is the huge take away from this. I'd like to see it close off around Ocean City MD latitude.

The other take away from 12Z EPS is the spread tightened w.r.t. to secondary cluster members.  

The EURO Control run shows a Roidzilla at 10:1 ratios

Frank_Wx wrote:The EURO Control run shows a Roidzilla at 10:1 ratios

Pin that one folks. Put it on your avatar cause that's the apex of the game we play.

Frank on the question of why the energy gest hung up in the SW - great answer makes great logical sense



It's not actually that progressive in the PAC. The flow does notably speed up once near the mid-west, moving east with an absence of high latitude blocking in the AO/NAO domains. Need to keep in mind the simple nature of a ridge. It flows anti-cyclonically. So shortwaves that ride over the top of it will naturally want to curl with the clockwise flow. That's what drives disturbances toward the four corners. I use the red lines to illustrate this, but it's easier to just follow the wind barbs.

WOOOOOFFFFFFFF!!!!!!!!

amugs wrote:Frank on the question of why the energy gest hung up in the SW - great answer makes great logical sense



It's not actually that progressive in the PAC. The flow does notably speed up once near the mid-west, moving east with an absence of high latitude blocking in the AO/NAO domains. Need to keep in mind the simple nature of a ridge. It flows anti-cyclonically. So shortwaves that ride over the top of it will naturally want to curl with the clockwise flow. That's what drives disturbances toward the four corners. I use the red lines to illustrate this, but it's easier to just follow the wind barbs.

Thanks! That does make sense. I think we are a little unlucky with where the PAC jet is riding. But honestly none of this matters if the EURO has its way. We're looking at one biga spicey meataball this weekend. Would LOVE to see the GFS continue its westward trend later today.

Board members, help me out. On Fri morning I will be driving back from Buffalo to northern Orange county. When will the snow start and what will I hit? I expect to leave at 8 and be back at 1 pm.

dkodgis wrote:Board members, help me out. On Fri morning I will be driving back from Buffalo to northern Orange county.  When will the snow start and what will I hit? I expect to leave at 8 and be back at 1 pm.

My guess is approx 5-9pm Friday

dkodgis wrote:Board members, help me out. On Fri morning I will be driving back from Buffalo to northern Orange county.  When will the snow start and what will I hit? I expect to leave at 8 and be back at 1 pm.

I think you'll be in the clear. Storm looks to hit late Friday and moreso Saturday.

Sorry if this is a dumb question, but is there airport from other models to back the euro up? I know there have been positive trends on the gfs and the Canadian model, but they haven't shown this kind of bomb in this location, have they?

lglickman1 wrote:Sorry if this is a dumb question, but is there airport from other models to back the euro up?  I know there have been positive trends on the gfs and the Canadian model, but they haven't shown this kind of bomb in this location, have they?

Nope

There are two models in the EURO camp and that is the JMA and RGEM

Frank just wondering, will you be starting a new thread for this storm??

I ask the same wait until he sees more backing from other model.