Long Range Discussion 23.0

BEWARE OF THE FEBRUARY TORCH FORECASTS AND DOOM AND GLOOM. Thinking my updated preliminary interim thoughts are looking good after some further analysis this morning. Opening week to 10/12 days of February moderate from what we’ve seen, and will see throughout January (which, let’s be honest, has been a cold month. But, I don’t think we torch during that moderation. I think it’s just that, a moderation that averages near normal on the whole, maybe slightly biased warm (say, -.5 to +1). Peak climo, still workable for snow as long as we time it right (yes, this has been a big ask of late).

After the above stretch, I think winter returns pretty harshly, as we see a renewed Aleutian low/+PNA couplet, possibly gaining enough latitude with the PNA ridge to seed and reorient a new -EPO. This will take us right through the rest of February. With so much cold still available to us, once this pattern evolves, it should be more than enough to offset any early-month positive temperature departure (and then some).

I think March, however, gets tricksy, as we really start to change up atmospheric wavelengths in the Northern Hemisphere (they become shorter), and we will have competing atmospheric evolutions. On the whole, I think the CONUS biases below average temperatures with a “coast to coast” cold pattern. BUT, how we get there, I think, will be a wilddddd ride. I think we are going to see A LOT of west-based Atlantic domain blocking develop beginning in the opening days of the month. As a result, I think we are going to see a lot of “bowling ball” lows amplifying into the West Coast as the Stratosphere will be trying to enhance the Tropospheric trough out there, but the tropical forcing will be trying to enhance it over the central and eastern CONUS. So, I think you can envision how storms will amplify as they come into the West Coast, but then get cut off via repeated cyclonic wave breaking over the central CONUS, which will aid in the maintenance of the west-based Atlantic domain blocking. Now, at this time of year, it may not be a pattern that works exceedingly well for the coast, BUT I think that there will be enough cold air around to certainly make it interesting throughout much of the month (at least the first 2.5-3 weeks) before winter breaks.

Overall, that still aligns very well with my initial seasonal thinking, and I think that least so far, that thinking has been on the right track.

Some notes and asides:

1. With how I see March evolving, I think the southern states will have an early start to the severe weather season

2. Based on early thinking, I think April may turn out to be not so nice overall, as we revert back to a lot of cut-off lows following the pattern relaxation in late March lol but it’s no longer winter at that point, so I really don’t care about that part of the forecast haha

3. I’ll try to get a video or two posted today with further explanations.

heehaw453 wrote:The 1/26 deal has potential but like most things this winter the pieces don't come together for us.  The tpv is on the wrong side of the Hudson Bay and that will interfere with n/s trough.  It will wash the s/s s/w energy right out.  You then get a very weak wave that will be small potatoes if anything.  

The 1/29-1/31 window IMO is a more legit threat.  You have a western ridge that will develop and allow for several n/s s/w's to dive hard on their backside.  But there in lies the problem wave spacing has been killing us this year for threats and I have no reason to believe this will be much different.  I expect a storm to our s/e.

So that is the rest of January IMO a couple more threat windows and I won't be surprised to see us miss out on each of them.  Sure there may be some nickel and dime things, but I don't think we hit the mark.  That being said January has not been too bad as we've all seen a lot worse even if it doesn't snow too much more.

We built the pattern, but you can’t exactly forecast simple bad luck. I must admit that I’m entirely surprised to have not come away with something sizable out of this. We will have had a straight month of a highly favorable overall synoptic alignment with nothing to show for it. Disappointing, for sure, but also fascinating and a perfect example of how fickle the weather, and the forecasting of it, can be.

rb924119 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:The 1/26 deal has potential but like most things this winter the pieces don't come together for us.  The tpv is on the wrong side of the Hudson Bay and that will interfere with n/s trough.  It will wash the s/s s/w energy right out.  You then get a very weak wave that will be small potatoes if anything.  

The 1/29-1/31 window IMO is a more legit threat.  You have a western ridge that will develop and allow for several n/s s/w's to dive hard on their backside.  But there in lies the problem wave spacing has been killing us this year for threats and I have no reason to believe this will be much different.  I expect a storm to our s/e.

So that is the rest of January IMO a couple more threat windows and I won't be surprised to see us miss out on each of them.  Sure there may be some nickel and dime things, but I don't think we hit the mark.  That being said January has not been too bad as we've all seen a lot worse even if it doesn't snow too much more.

We built the pattern, but you can’t exactly forecast simple bad luck. I must admit that I’m entirely surprised to have not come away with something sizable out of this. We will have had a straight month of a highly favorable overall synoptic alignment with nothing to show for it. Disappointing, for sure, but also fascinating and a perfect example of how fickle the weather, and the forecasting of it, can be.

Rb I hear ya brother but look at what I posted in the other thread of Jan and Discussions from Tomer Burg makes a lot of sense as to the what to the why and why to the what!

There is room for this to come up.  If it can hold together better then this could be 1-3/2-4 type of deal NW I95 for 1/25.  Have to see how this trends...

Tuesday has sparked some interest for a possibility N&W.
Need a few tweaks for the coastal plain but a good event for N&W possibly. That Clipper in SE CAN needs to get out of there.

Canadian is colder and on board as well for 1/25- Walt Drag preaches, you need the CMC on board and being colder for a snowstorm.

Deeper dig than GFS

Lee Goldberg last night said February temps look above normal not want I wanted to hear for snow lovers

None of this surprises me, if its not go be any real snowstorms which is 3-6 for me at least then let it be warm and sunny or cludy, no rain. I cannot stand bitter cold and sun. I say after 1st week of Feb if we havent seen a decent storm I will be ready for spring to be here. many won't like this comment but putting my feeling out there as most do this too.

Who's ready to get excited for the GFS 10 days out!  Lock it in.

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Zhukov1945 wrote:Who's ready to get excited for the GFS 10 days out!  Lock it in.

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On the one year anniversary of last year's area wide blizzard. There's the shot in the vein I needed. Bracing for the eventual pain.

Zhukov1945 wrote:Who's ready to get excited for the GFS 10 days out!  Lock it in.

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I normally don't put an op model H5 at that range, but there is a window during 1-29-1-31 which a western ridge will pump up significantly in conjunction with an east based block. Most likely the active N/S will drop a s/w to ride down the shoot and amplify. If it dives at the right time as that ridge pumps and has enough room to amplify there will be a major EC snowstorm. Right now I'd say it dives either too late which pushes it to our SE or it gets inhibited by another trough which dampens heights.

Im not putting any stock in this printout at this point. I'll treat that storm as noise for now.

Most of the 12Z guidance today looks like Can/GFS/Icon for 1/25 threat.  The Euro has the n/s squash s/s the energy and it's a nothing burger.  I'm kind of glad the Euro shows this ATTM actually.  Again this won't be sig, but could be a 1-3/2-4" kind of deal for nw of I95 IF the s/s energy is not interfered with by the n/s.

mmanisca wrote:Im not putting any stock in this printout at this point. I'll treat that storm as noise for now.

I think there will be a sig storm, but my bet now is it probably misses to our SE... Until I see luck change that's my sentiment.

heehaw453 wrote:

mmanisca wrote:Im not putting any stock in this printout at this point. I'll treat that storm as noise for now.

I think there will be a sig storm, but my bet now is it probably misses to our SE...  Until I see luck change that's my sentiment.  

I have to agree as they say the trend is your friend and right now the trend is to the southeast

I should also point out that this storm for 1/29-1/30 is not in fantasy land range.  The genesis of it is here and H5 at this range is not exact, but general idea is probably accurate.  The details of course at this range are non-sense, but this setup most likely yields a sig storm.  Fairly confident on that so we will most likely go through the highs/lows in about 3 days or so.  

Yea I know it’s out in fantasy land and details need to be ironed out, but the Euro has come on board along with the GFS and CMC for a strong coastal at day 10.

Very strong signal on EPS for D8.  Actually looks like it has the room it needs for development.

heehaw453 wrote:Very strong signal on EPS for D8.  Actually looks like it has the room it needs for development.

We saw this a week ago for the huge storm today.....

You get big dog storms with some of the following ingredients. Just sayin'

blocking
NW side of a rapidly maturing cyclone
deep moisture fetch
sufficient cold air
sufficient space for the cyclone
additional energy phasing into the storm during its maturation phase

You need not look any further than next week. 8-9 days is an enternity for wx.
4 days out and we see a midweek storm that we need to watch.
The Clipper is weaker which is good allowing for more room for the Southern energy to dig and doesn't warm the boundary layer as much.
Fks we have as Frank and Haw has pointed out some blocking can do wonders.

Gfs for the win next weekend lol

The interaction of this developing storm on 1/29 could be highly influenced by the TPV n/s energy. These are details that are just too far out to have any analysis on. We just have to stay tuned and understand this may have no sig impact on our area...

Couple of things I have growing confidence in for 1/29 timeframe.
A major storm developing somewhere off the east coast
A slow moving storm
Good western ridge/east based blocking

Absolutely no confidence ATTM
The interaction of the n/s tpv on the developing storm
The placement of the storm w.r.t. to EC
Redevelopment of the storm

heehaw453 wrote:The interaction of this developing storm on 1/29 could be highly influenced by the TPV n/s energy. These are details that are just too far out to have any analysis on.  We just have to stay tuned and understand this may have no sig impact on our area...

Couple of things I have growing confidence in for 1/29 timeframe.  
A major storm developing somewhere off the east coast
A slow moving storm
Good western ridge/east based blocking

Absolutely no confidence ATTM
The interaction of the n/s tpv on the developing storm
The placement of the storm w.r.t. to EC
Redevelopment of the storm

What does n/s tpv stand for? Northern stream...?

crippo84 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:The interaction of this developing storm on 1/29 could be highly influenced by the TPV n/s energy. These are details that are just too far out to have any analysis on.  We just have to stay tuned and understand this may have no sig impact on our area...

Couple of things I have growing confidence in for 1/29 timeframe.  
A major storm developing somewhere off the east coast
A slow moving storm
Good western ridge/east based blocking

Absolutely no confidence ATTM
The interaction of the n/s tpv on the developing storm
The placement of the storm w.r.t. to EC
Redevelopment of the storm

What does n/s tpv stand for? Northern stream...?

Tropospheric polar vortex which is the lower half of the polar vortex.

heehaw453 wrote:The interaction of this developing storm on 1/29 could be highly influenced by the TPV n/s energy. These are details that are just too far out to have any analysis on.  We just have to stay tuned and understand this may have no sig impact on our area...

Couple of things I have growing confidence in for 1/29 timeframe.  
A major storm developing somewhere off the east coast
A slow moving storm
Good western ridge/east based blocking

Absolutely no confidence ATTM
The interaction of the n/s tpv on the developing storm
The placement of the storm w.r.t. to EC
Redevelopment of the storm

Too many variables at play here which has been the general theme this winter. Since we don’t have a west based block, every storm threat is a thread the needle event. While I want a blockbuster storm more then anyone, I refuse to get pulled in only to get hood winked in the end. I’ll watch the model runs in the coming days, but I won’t bite till Wednesday if the threat is still there.

LOL you guys see the GFS I think it was last night? Nukes Eastern CT to cape with Franzroidzilla (yes a new term for well above 36 lol) 36-40+ inches wouldn't that be a smack in the head if that happened. It won't and my guess is it misses entirely but we will see it is 8 days out, not fantasy land but still as stated above way to far out to put any stance in it.