Re: Long Range Discussion 23.0

by **sroc4** Mon Jan 24, 2022 7:22 pm

Fwiw 18z euro had all the S energy coming out and likely would have been a monster

by **jmanley32** Mon Jan 24, 2022 7:29 pm

sroc4 wrote:Fwiw 18z euro had all the S energy coming out and likely would have been a monster

Why would have? It does not go out for the full storm or it is not done yet?

by **heehaw453** Mon Jan 24, 2022 7:29 pm

sroc4 wrote:Fwiw 18z euro had all the S energy coming out and likely would have been a monster

The piece coming down from ND/MN is very interesting. Also s/s s/w looks to not be held back. My guess is you're right it'd would have been a nice run.

snow - Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 11 Euro45

by **nutleyblizzard** Mon Jan 24, 2022 7:29 pm

snow - Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 11 61ef4010

sroc4 wrote:Fwiw 18z euro had all the S energy coming out and likely would have been a monster

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Jan 24, 2022 7:31 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
sroc4 wrote:18z GFS looks like it wants to hold back some of the southern energy minimizing the phase keeping everything more progressive. That was the problem with this past weekends OTS soln. This go round the ridge looks more amplified out west which would lead to the N energy able to still dig, but if the phasing is delayed it may lead to the eastern soln. Like prev we have to watch for trends to de-amply the ridge over the next 2 days as the energy gets into better sampled areas.

Maybe Ray can chime in but we’re seeing a tendency for energy to be held back over the SW CONUS this year. If it happens again I’m shutting this board down permanently

LOL.

Great tension breaker Frank. I for one was about to jump after the 18Z.

by **Grselig** Mon Jan 24, 2022 8:10 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
sroc4 wrote:18z GFS looks like it wants to hold back some of the southern energy minimizing the phase keeping everything more progressive. That was the problem with this past weekends OTS soln. This go round the ridge looks more amplified out west which would lead to the N energy able to still dig, but if the phasing is delayed it may lead to the eastern soln. Like prev we have to watch for trends to de-amply the ridge over the next 2 days as the energy gets into better sampled areas.

Maybe Ray can chime in but we’re seeing a tendency for energy to be held back over the SW CONUS this year. If it happens again I’m shutting this board down permanently

LOL.

Great tension breaker Frank. I for one was about to jump after the 18Z.

Actually, I felt more tension after his statement. What if the man is serious? What he's fed up with no winter. These are certainly times that try men's (and women and children, etc's) souls. The lack of acceptable winter weather is tearing us apart.

by **sroc4** Mon Jan 24, 2022 8:16 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Fwiw 18z euro had all the S energy coming out and likely would have been a monster

The piece coming down from ND/MN is very interesting. Also s/s s/w looks to not be held back. My guess is you're right it'd would have been a nice run.

Yeah here is the 12z vs 18z. You can see the S energy is back in Eastern Arizona, whereas; the 18z it is in eastern New Mexico. Almost a 350mile difference. And that N energy is further south. It def would have been an earlier phase and perhaps even stronger with a more western sLP track IMHO if it went out furthe. So Jon if you're reading 18z euro only goes out to hour 90. I love the trajectory of the N energy. Coming in hot S to SSE, and not SE at this time frame.

snow - Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 11 Ecmwf-96

snow - Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 11 Ecmwf-97

by **jmanley32** Mon Jan 24, 2022 8:19 pm

sroc4 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Fwiw 18z euro had all the S energy coming out and likely would have been a monster

The piece coming down from ND/MN is very interesting. Also s/s s/w looks to not be held back. My guess is you're right it'd would have been a nice run.

Yeah here is the 12z vs 18z. You can see the S energy is back in Eastern Arizona, whereas; the 18z it is in eastern New Mexico. Almost a 350mile difference. And that N energy is further south. It def would have been an earlier phase and perhaps even stronger with a more western sLP track IMHO if it went out furthe. So Jon if you're reading 18z euro only goes out to hour 90. I love the trajectory of the N energy. Coming in hot S to SSE, and not SE at this time frame.

Thanks scott, thats weird why did they make it a short run rather than 240? Good to hear it likely held serve or might been even better, I am not jumping ship and not getting excited, and I surely hope frank wasn't serious.

by **dkodgis** Mon Jan 24, 2022 8:22 pm

Somebody take the nuclear football away from Frank

by **heehaw453** Mon Jan 24, 2022 8:39 pm

My 18Z EPS takeaway. More consolidated ULL solutions. Pretty consistent run though tbh. There's a whole lot of "potential" with this. Not much more to say until we can understand better the phasing aspects.

snow - Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 11 Eps18z10

by **amugs** Mon Jan 24, 2022 9:02 pm

18Z Euro Control is a moderate Cat 3 into SNE....except in winter.

snow - Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 11 Fj6p0e10

by **jmanley32** Mon Jan 24, 2022 9:20 pm

amugs wrote:18Z Euro Control is a moderate Cat 3 into SNE....except in winter.

That's stronger than 12z...that is a tad scary would be one heck of a winter storm to remember. Just for comparison when u have it can I post the ensemble snow maps.

by **amugs** Mon Jan 24, 2022 9:59 pm

This would be absolutely disconcerting for coasts with astronomical high tide.

snow - Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 11 Fj6g8b10

by **jmanley32** Mon Jan 24, 2022 10:10 pm

65 ft waves on cape cod?! Thats a tsunami, it would be gone, if thats for real I dont care how bad the driving would be I gotta see 65 ft waves.

by **Irish** Mon Jan 24, 2022 10:19 pm

https://weatherboy.com/tracking-the-blizzard-of-2022-will-modeled-bomb-explode-on-northeast/

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/another-snowstorm-is-in-the-cards-for-the-east-coast/1130340

by **heehaw453** Mon Jan 24, 2022 10:35 pm

This look of holding energy back shows up more than I'd like to see. This is 00Z Icon which is not really good high resolution guidance, but nonetheless it'd be great to stop seeing this appear. Ridge needs to hold up and roll this s/w forward. We'll see...

snow - Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 11 Icon11

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 24, 2022 10:45 pm

Who is here for the 00z GFS run?

by **Joe Snow** Mon Jan 24, 2022 10:47 pm

I am here Frank. How are you.
I am building a massive kitchen in New Fairfield CT where flakes are falling right now.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 24, 2022 10:55 pm

Valid 12z Thursday, the 00z GFS shows a better ridge axis than 18z. Most importantly, the southern energies are east and better consolidated. I like the look so far

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Jan 24, 2022 10:59 pm

The three minutes of silence is a little disconcerting.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:00 pm

Valid 1am Friday, the southern s/w is much more noticeable east compared to 18z. But if you compare it to the big Canadian run at 12z, the CMC already ejected this energy into Texas while GFS still has it over Arizona. It will be important for the GFS to eject this over the next couple of frames. If it does, could be dealing with a slower evolution.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:01 pm

Meant New Mexico*

by **nutleyblizzard** Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:01 pm

Hr 78 H5 levels look more like 12z run. Hopefully 18z was just an off run.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:03 pm

Tonights Icon was well east of the 18Z adding to my dismay. Need something from the GFS to sleep by.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:04 pm

Yea, this will be better than 18z by a long shot at H5 even if it does not translate to much at the surface.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:07 pm

GFS did miss east but man, it was verrrry close

Let's see what the ensembles show

by **heehaw453** Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:11 pm

Phase is a bit sloppy on the 00Z GFS. Trough doesn't dig as much as a result. It's subtle things that we cannot have any confidence of ATTM. The difference between a direct hit and a near miss is really subtle. Have to give it a bit more time unfortunately to have confidence.

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