Long Range Discussion 23.0

Frank just wondering, will you be starting a new thread for this storm??

I ask the same wait until he sees more backing from other model.

Carvin wrote:I ask the same wait until he sees more backing from other model.

Hold the line until at least tomorrow. Still very early and we've been burned too many times.

The Euro run was exciting for all but keep those expectations in check for a bit longer. Confidence is growing but that could all change in 12 hours if things go the other way.

mmanisca wrote:Frank just wondering, will you be starting a new thread for this storm??

Folks here are very superstitious. They feel that the posting of a storm thread on this random weather board will change the course of nature. Pretty powerful board if I might say so myself!

sroc4 wrote:

dkodgis wrote:Board members, help me out. On Fri morning I will be driving back from Buffalo to northern Orange county.  When will the snow start and what will I hit? I expect to leave at 8 and be back at 1 pm.

My guess is approx 5-9pm Friday

I am confused, SCI says 30th, which would be sunday, is this going to last from night of 28th through sunday?!!

mmanisca wrote:Frank just wondering, will you be starting a new thread for this storm??

I will have a new thread, blog, and possibly even a chat if we're still in a good spot tomorrow.

Irish wrote:

mmanisca wrote:Frank just wondering, will you be starting a new thread for this storm??

Folks here are very superstitious. They feel that the posting of a storm thread on this random weather board will change the course of nature. Pretty powerful board if I might say so myself!

LOL I guess even though this board is full of science, we cant help but be a little superstitious.
So since you want to play that game, how this for there being a snowstorm? My son and daughter in-law are packing the baby in the car and traveling to Florida this weekend. Thats a sure signal for a storm!
They were planning on leaving Saturday night but Ive advised them to leave later Friday figuring maybe theyd run into a little snow up till Delmarva then be ok.

So I'm going with Murphys law here on a big storm occurring because they need to travel!

Irish wrote:

mmanisca wrote:Frank just wondering, will you be starting a new thread for this storm??

Folks here are very superstitious. They feel that the posting of a storm thread on this random weather board will change the course of nature. Pretty powerful board if I might say so myself!

There are a lot of Italians on here,LOL.Posting that to early?.....MALOCCHIO!

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

dkodgis wrote:Board members, help me out. On Fri morning I will be driving back from Buffalo to northern Orange county.  When will the snow start and what will I hit? I expect to leave at 8 and be back at 1 pm.

My guess is approx 5-9pm Friday

I am confused, SCI says 30th, which would be sunday, is this going to last from night of 28th through sunday?!!

No have just been lazy to update it. I will do that tomorrow too.

Frank_Wx wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

dkodgis wrote:Board members, help me out. On Fri morning I will be driving back from Buffalo to northern Orange county.  When will the snow start and what will I hit? I expect to leave at 8 and be back at 1 pm.

My guess is approx 5-9pm Friday

I am confused, SCI says 30th, which would be sunday, is this going to last from night of 28th through sunday?!!

No have just been lazy to update it. I will do that tomorrow too.

LOL but you updated the percentage? I guess I do not know what goes into the coding. So it is the 28th/29th. Won't even tomorrow be a bit jinxy still 3-4 days out, this one is rather fun to track even if we get skunked, it will be sad to see the board go if that SW energy holds back... : )

Major differences on the NAM so far

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

dkodgis wrote:Board members, help me out. On Fri morning I will be driving back from Buffalo to northern Orange county.  When will the snow start and what will I hit? I expect to leave at 8 and be back at 1 pm.

My guess is approx 5-9pm Friday

I am confused, SCI says 30th, which would be sunday, is this going to last from night of 28th through sunday?!!

Here is the beginning of the moisture moving in on both euro and GFs. Both images valid about 9pm Friday eve. From SW to NE between 5pm-9pm is my guess.  In general the precip tends to start earlier than modeled and ends earlier than modeled.  The last bit of precip moves out of my area between 10pm-1am late Saturday into early Sunday.  

jman.. take a walk, get some fresh air. No need to sweat the small stuff.

nice 24 hour event

docstox12 wrote:

Irish wrote:

mmanisca wrote:Frank just wondering, will you be starting a new thread for this storm??

Folks here are very superstitious. They feel that the posting of a storm thread on this random weather board will change the course of nature. Pretty powerful board if I might say so myself!

There are a lot of Italians on here,LOL.Posting that to early?.....MALOCCHIO!

Does this mean that we all have to wear a cornicello?  Or do we need nonna to hold a spoonful of olive oil over a bowl of water, while making the sign of the cross and saying a little prayer? Then dropping 3-5 drops of oil into the bowl with her little finger. Rinse and repeat 3-5 times.

Ridge, southern s/w and northern s/w all improved. Only slight neg is EC heights slightly lower

So let it be modeled; so let it be snow.

Clearly more phasing on the NAM. A big nod to EURO here

dsix85 wrote:jman.. take a walk, get some fresh air. No need to sweat the small stuff.

working (from home on computer 8 hrs a day even at office) not sweating anything. Just trying to plan for my daughters weekend activities that are pre-paid. Kinda sounds like if this happens both her dance and swim might be a no go, but she will be weenie for the snow! She will join here one day : ) LOL

The NAM is likely going to show a EURO-esque solution

Americans starting to smell the espresso??

Frank_Wx wrote:Clearly more phasing on the NAM. A big nod to EURO here

NICE : ) Here's to hoping GFS comes in line, I like the NAM despite how some have felt about it in the past. It has sniffed out a number of things that LR models haven't before.  And yeah the SW energy is in Texas which is where we want it to be.

Here is the best part about today.



Even the EURO over the last 2-3 runs has trended to push the lead energy (southern energy) deeper into the SW. However, the reason we're seeing explosive runs still is because of how the northern branch has trended and the upper level jet. These features have trended stronger and are pretty much forcing a phase. We still need the southern piece to eject, but nothing is telling me it won't and with the way NAM is looking I think Americans are finally smelling the espresso.

NAM also has a beautifully placed HP to the north so it would be a long duration event

A Roidzilla was born on the 18z NAM

NOAA will be sending recon into our upper level energies Wednesday and Thursday. My guess is 00z runs tomorrow night and 12z runs Thursday will have the data.

Frank_Wx wrote:A Roidzilla was born on the 18z NAM

That has to be a few inches of snow before this thing even gets close. I doubt it but as weather porn it works just fine.

If the low gets to the 40/70 BM check out the water temps from normal. Above average and warm for this time of year.