Re: Long Range Discussion 23.0

by **heehaw453** Mon Jan 24, 2022 3:21 pm

lglickman1 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
amugs wrote:JESUS H this a CAT 4 HCANE type storm Pressure!!
God if its right snow aint the only worry!!

Inside the benchmark, perfect.

I don't know why the term benchmark was even coined, it must have been someone in Boston or Cape Cod, but over it only seems to work for places east of NYC.

I agree unless you have a negatively tilted trough. Then snow gets thrown back to Harrisburg/Scranton/Binghamton.

Can a storm be "inside the benchmark" and still provide good snow to most of the people on this forum?

Without a doubt. Especially a storm that is dynamic which will cool the column a lot more than models will lead on.

by **bloc1357** Mon Jan 24, 2022 3:22 pm

amugs wrote:
lglickman1 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
amugs wrote:JESUS H this a CAT 4 HCANE type storm Pressure!!
God if its right snow aint the only worry!!

Inside the benchmark, perfect.

I don't know why the term benchmark was even coined, it must have been someone in Boston or Cape Cod, but over it only seems to work for places east of NYC.

I agree unless you have a negatively tilted trough. Then snow gets thrown back to Harrisburg/Scranton/Binghamton.

Can a storm be "inside the benchmark" and still provide good snow to most of the people on this forum?
Absolutely you get in on the CCB heaviest bands of snow that can puke snow 1-4" per hour rates and heavy winds.

You have to smell the rain sometimes to get the heaviest snow

by **SoulSingMG** Mon Jan 24, 2022 3:47 pm

by hurrysundown23 Mon Jan 24, 2022 4:04 pm

I'm at the foot Sayreville side Driscoll Bridge no mention of rain from NWS just now

ri 28 | Night
25°
79%
NNE 13 mph
Periods of snow. Low around 25F. Winds NNE at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 80%. 3 to 5 inches of snow expected.

29°
77%
NNW 18 mph
Snow during the morning will give way to lingering snow showers during the afternoon. High 29F. Winds NNW at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of snow 80%. 3 to 5 inches of snow expected.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 24, 2022 5:06 pm

18z gfs is leaving energy behind over Texas. This will likely result in little to partial phasing and a storm well south and east. We’ll see in a bit

Regardless, it’s an 18z run and I bet it’s own Ensembles will look drastically different

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 24, 2022 5:09 pm

Yup. Wide right.

We wait till 00z

by **sroc4** Mon Jan 24, 2022 5:11 pm

18z GFS looks like it wants to hold back some of the southern energy minimizing the phase keeping everything more progressive. That was the problem with this past weekends OTS soln. This go round the ridge looks more amplified out west which would lead to the N energy able to still dig, but if the phasing is delayed it may lead to the eastern soln. Like prev we have to watch for trends to de-amply the ridge over the next 2 days as the energy gets into better sampled areas.

by **sroc4** Mon Jan 24, 2022 5:12 pm

Great minds Frank

by **heehaw453** Mon Jan 24, 2022 5:13 pm

That's right. The 18Z GFS leaves too much energy behind in the SW and consolidation occurs too late. In order for this to work for this latitude early consolidation is necessary. That piece is critical and models will resolve this in next 24-48 hours I think.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 24, 2022 5:14 pm

sroc4 wrote:18z GFS looks like it wants to hold back some of the southern energy minimizing the phase keeping everything more progressive. That was the problem with this past weekends OTS soln. This go round the ridge looks more amplified out west which would lead to the N energy able to still dig, but if the phasing is delayed it may lead to the eastern soln. Like prev we have to watch for trends to de-amply the ridge over the next 2 days as the energy gets into better sampled areas.

Maybe Ray can chime in but we’re seeing a tendency for energy to be held back over the SW CONUS this year. If it happens again I’m shutting this board down permanently

by **heehaw453** Mon Jan 24, 2022 5:15 pm

The ULL location was just fine. It's about consolidation of the mid-levels/slp. Been saying that's the big wild card right now. Even that being said I'd bet the area still see decent snow from that just do to the an earlier neutral/neg tilt of the 500mb trough.

by **sroc4** Mon Jan 24, 2022 5:20 pm

heehaw453 wrote:The ULL location was just fine. It's about consolidation of the mid-levels/slp. Been saying that's the big wild card right now. Even that being said I'd bet the area still see decent snow from that just do to the an earlier neutral/neg tilt of the 500mb trough.

Agreed. Even with S energy held back as long as the ridge holds there should be enough digging of the N energy into the STJ to trigger a decent storm but the eastern sections would have the best shot to cash in in that scenario. The consolidation/phasing of all that N and S energy is needed for the Roid/Frankzilla totals, which is still possible, but we can still see a decent storm Without all of the S energy coming out. If all remains the same or similar

Again Cautious optimism is needed

by **amugs** Mon Jan 24, 2022 5:21 pm

Here we go windshield wiper effect now. We see at the mid range models do this only to bring it back NW 48 -24 hours. One run.

by **MattyICE** Mon Jan 24, 2022 5:21 pm

A potential sobering reminder of just how delicate the circumstances are and the narrow margin between something truly special and something, well, not at all. We’ve been lucky today with pretty much everything trending positively to increase our chances of a bigger solution. The big ones typically come along with the roller coaster back and forth - so hopefully runs like this (and there WILL be more) are part of that journey.

by **sroc4** Mon Jan 24, 2022 5:35 pm

amugs wrote:Here we go windshield wiper effect now. We see at the mid range models do this only to bring it back NW 48 -24 hours. One run.

Obv with what as happened in the past its very easy to jump to conclusions more rapidly than otherwise. That said when your last two girlfriends have cheated on you, when your current one says she cant hang out because she already has plans Friday night but doesn't tell you why its easy to be skeptical.

by **amugs** Mon Jan 24, 2022 5:50 pm

From a pro Mets

Talk to me when this storm is 48 hours away and the vorticity can be seen on observations hanging back in New Mexico and missing the phase. Then I will be concerned.

If your gonna panic on every run then step away and come back Wednesday.
As Frank pointed out energy is out in the PAC and won't be onshore till Wednesday and fully sampled by 0Z I think.

by **amugs** Mon Jan 24, 2022 5:57 pm

sroc4 wrote:
amugs wrote:Here we go windshield wiper effect now. We see at the mid range models do this only to bring it back NW 48 -24 hours. One run.

Obv with what as happened in the past its very easy to jump to conclusions more rapidly than otherwise. That said when your last two girlfriends have cheated on you, when your current one says she cant hang out because she already has plans Friday night but doesn't tell you why its easy to be skeptical.

True. Where is the strong in this forum?? I see alot of anxiety here and not a lot of strong. So your opponents beats you in the few minutes, period whatever 2x in a row and you meet again. Your gonna be afraid and just go in and lay down?? Come on Man LOL!!

by **heehaw453** Mon Jan 24, 2022 6:02 pm

sroc4 wrote:
amugs wrote:Here we go windshield wiper effect now. We see at the mid range models do this only to bring it back NW 48 -24 hours. One run.

Obv with what as happened in the past its very easy to jump to conclusions more rapidly than otherwise. That said when your last two girlfriends have cheated on you, when your current one says she cant hang out because she already has plans Friday night but doesn't tell you why its easy to be skeptical.

snow - Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 10 1f602

by **frank 638** Mon Jan 24, 2022 6:03 pm

Amugs good point as my dad would say go have a bottle wine

because it will make u feel better

by **heehaw453** Mon Jan 24, 2022 6:15 pm

This phasing is probably 72-84 hours out hours out and within 2 days models will probably have this piece resolved.

That being said what we probably want is a more north/south hammering of the northern stream right down on the southern stream s/w. This as shown represents poor phasing and consolidation.

snow - Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 10 Gfs213

by **heehaw453** Mon Jan 24, 2022 6:19 pm

MattyICE wrote:A potential sobering reminder of just how delicate the circumstances are and the narrow margin between something truly special and something, well, not at all. We’ve been lucky today with pretty much everything trending positively to increase our chances of a bigger solution. The big ones typically come along with the roller coaster back and forth - so hopefully runs like this (and there WILL be more) are part of that journey.

Well said. Phasing is a very tricky and delicate business...

by **docstox12** Mon Jan 24, 2022 6:48 pm

sroc4 wrote:
amugs wrote:Here we go windshield wiper effect now. We see at the mid range models do this only to bring it back NW 48 -24 hours. One run.

Obv with what as happened in the past its very easy to jump to conclusions more rapidly than otherwise. That said when your last two girlfriends have cheated on you, when your current one says she cant hang out because she already has plans Friday night but doesn't tell you why its easy to be skeptical.

by **docstox12** Mon Jan 24, 2022 6:52 pm

Well, we know there is a storm coming with some snow or a lot of snow , so that is a positive for me.Great work Long Range Crew detecting this.Will check back now and then but won't get hopes up until Thursday.There is a snowpack , snow showers tonight, cold air reinforced, a possible snowstorm at the end of the week, plus the entire month of February and March.What's not to like?

by **dkodgis** Mon Jan 24, 2022 6:54 pm

I love this board.

by Koroptim Mon Jan 24, 2022 7:04 pm

If this storm misses, this has to go down as one of the more disappointing “great setup periods” I’ve ever seen.

by **sroc4** Mon Jan 24, 2022 7:22 pm

Fwiw 18z euro had all the S energy coming out and likely would have been a monster

by **jmanley32** Mon Jan 24, 2022 7:29 pm

sroc4 wrote:Fwiw 18z euro had all the S energy coming out and likely would have been a monster

Why would have? It does not go out for the full storm or it is not done yet?

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