Long Range Discussion 23.0

Down to the gulf...gulp!

Last 6 runs trends

This is incredible!! Phases early!!

GFS CAVES TO EURO ...FOR NOW!! 500 IS BEAUTIFUL

GFS was as good or better at the H5 than Euro IMO. The difference is the capture of the ULL. That would have made this same type of result.

The surface depiction of the GFS is incorrect as it tries to chase convection along the NE quadrant of the storm. The changes aloft were massive and a clear nod to the EURO. The GFS has been playing catch up for 2 days and is still doing so. Every run is better and better and closer to the EURO. I think this model will be fully corrected by 12z tomorrow.

Phases over Bama = Phi Slamma Jamma!!

GFS back to some old habits here peeps. No Fret we got this covered!!

Frank_Wx wrote:The GFS looks so good that it may actually be *better* than the EURO

Holy $%^&*(@

I literally started giggling and gulping like a crazed child lol

Frank_Wx wrote:The surface depiction of the GFS is incorrect as it tries to chase convection along the NE quadrant of the storm. The changes aloft were massive and a clear nod to the EURO. The GFS has been playing catch up for 2 days and is still doing so. Every run is better and better and closer to the EURO. I think this model will be fully corrected by 12z tomorrow.

This IMO is where you want things now. Slowly the surface panels catch up to the H5. As long as we don't walk backwards and can get this look we'll be ok.

My $.02 before I have to disappear again:

1. 18z NAM/RGEM remind me of Stella
2. GFS having severe convective feedback issues northeast of the main vorticity/trough belly dampening the height field to the northeast instead of beginning to back to a more southerly then southeasterly flow as the phasing processes begin, and allowing the low to “escape” northeast. It’s bogus. H5 looks gorgeous.

That is all. Keep calm and carry on

With the trough going negative like the GFS just depicted, there’s no way the low tracks like that. No worries. Clear case of the GFS playing catch up. Overall massive improvements from 12z.

Frank_Wx wrote:The surface depiction of the GFS is incorrect as it tries to chase convection along the NE quadrant of the storm. The changes aloft were massive and a clear nod to the EURO. The GFS has been playing catch up for 2 days and is still doing so. Every run is better and better and closer to the EURO. I think this model will be fully corrected by 12z tomorrow.

Great minds, Frank also, your jokes have been on point today - we need to get you a microphone lmao

This is exactly where you want to spawn surface low pressure. Gives it plenty of time to develop and as it hits Delmarva it may be ready to close off at the mid levels.

Frank_Wx wrote:The surface depiction of the GFS is incorrect as it tries to chase convection along the NE quadrant of the storm. The changes aloft were massive and a clear nod to the EURO. The GFS has been playing catch up for 2 days and is still doing so. Every run is better and better and closer to the EURO. I think this model will be fully corrected by 12z tomorrow.

So I presume those blues would likely have been over at least part of the area had it not chased the convection, yeah the surface map when I looked I was like no wayyy after what the H5 showed. Ur right those are some insane snow rates and this is starting to look real good, but let me humble myself to the snow gods for only they know our true fate. Why is it when theres a weather event my week goes by so slowly but when there isn't it flies by?

Is the delay in the h5 closing off as depicted in the GFS and GEFS the "other possibility" that we need to watch out for going forward?

heehaw453 wrote:This is exactly where you want to spawn surface low pressure.  Gives it plenty of time to develop and as it hits Delmarva it may be ready to close off at the mid levels.

Its going to be over the anomalous warm Gulf Stream and this is going to feed this bad boy into a beast by the time it gets to the BM region.
As we'd say back in the day in Paterson "Shi$$ is real!"

JMA anyone??

QPF

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:Is the delay in the h5 closing off as depicted in the GFS and GEFS the "other possibility" that we need to watch out for going forward?

Closing off the ULL is everything w.r.t. to big snowfall totals. If can it can close off around Delmarva that'd be ideal. GFS is closing it a tad too late probably because of the Atlantic ridge/northern stream interactions. Just the difficult details of a situation like this.

amugs wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:This is exactly where you want to spawn surface low pressure.  Gives it plenty of time to develop and as it hits Delmarva it may be ready to close off at the mid levels.

Its going to be over the anomalous warm Gulf Stream and this is going to feed this bad boy into a beast by the time it gets to the BM region.
As we'd say back in the day in Paterson "Shi$$ is real!"

The ULL needs to close of around Ocean City MD Mugs. That's how we get the big totals... But to me the ingredients are there for it to do so.

Frank_Wx wrote:

essexcountypete wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:If the low gets to the 40/70 BM check out the water temps from normal. Above average and warm for this time of year.

So this means more moisture for the storm to tap into, correct?

Theoretically, yes. The PWAT (precipitable water) will be at higher than normal levels

What did you just call Jman?

essexcountypete wrote:

Irish wrote:

docstox12 wrote:

Irish wrote:

mmanisca wrote:Frank just wondering, will you be starting a new thread for this storm??

Folks here are very superstitious. They feel that the posting of a storm thread on this random weather board will change the course of nature. Pretty powerful board if I might say so myself!

There are a lot of Italians on here,LOL.Posting that to early?.....MALOCCHIO!

Does this mean that we all have to wear a cornicello?  Or do we need nonna to hold a spoonful of olive oil over a bowl of water, while making the sign of the cross and saying a little prayer? Then dropping 3-5 drops of oil into the bowl with her little finger. Rinse and repeat 3-5 times.

I'm loving the Italian lessons! So much to take in!

That's what she said!

Irish wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

essexcountypete wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:If the low gets to the 40/70 BM check out the water temps from normal. Above average and warm for this time of year.

So this means more moisture for the storm to tap into, correct?

Theoretically, yes. The PWAT (precipitable water) will be at higher than normal levels

What did you just call Jman?

Well I do know a few things, granted nothing like the others.

Frank_Wx wrote:Here. We. Go!!!!!!!!!!!!

It's time for the separate storm thread, regardless of how it plays out.

The fun is in tracking win or lose this is fun

Carvin wrote:The fun is in tracking win or lose this is fun

I completely agree. When Senj said that he finds the biggest thrill in the hunt and anticipation of the coming storm, I thought I wrote the post!

That's why starting up the thread, makes total sense. If it misses, it's not because we started the thread, but I get the idea of bad Juju that some have.